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  1. Same question as with Hanley Ramirez: how healthy does Kinsler have to be to justify the dollars, assuming a normal aging curve?

    Comment by Alex Remington — April 10, 2012 @ 1:04 pm

  2. Are we going to see an article on the Jonathon Niese extension?

    Comment by Greg — April 10, 2012 @ 1:04 pm

  3. Could it be that players who show outstanding defensive skills are likely to be shortstops, and players with above average bats are often converted to corner positions to prolong their careers? Players who remain at 2nd usually have above average to good skills, which tend to show signs of aging quicker than those with oustanding to elite skills?

    Comment by j6takish — April 10, 2012 @ 1:05 pm

  4. Yeah, that’s the selection bias that I referred to. It’s probably the best explanation, though there might be something to injuries being caused by taking a lot of hits on the pivot at second base as well. But, second baseman are generally the smaller guys who didn’t have the arm or range for shortstop, so they’re likely to be a less athletic group on average than other positions, and we know athleticism is one thing that helps players age pretty well.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 10, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

  5. Interesting on second baggers falling off so early, I was not really aware of this. I was surprised not to see Jeff Kent’s name included but after looking at his stats realized that his wRC+ in 27-29 years was only 104. Guess he was just from a different era…

    Chucky Knoblauch might not be that fair a comp, as he was such a head case in NY. I believe his decline was due more to mental deterioration as opposed to losing physical abilities.

    Comment by MustBunique — April 10, 2012 @ 1:14 pm

  6. you mean sort of like the one that was posted 5 days ago?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/comps-say-niese-extension-a-good-deal/#more-82373

    Comment by batpig — April 10, 2012 @ 1:22 pm

  7. Here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/comps-say-niese-extension-a-good-deal/

    Comment by SeanP — April 10, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

  8. Are you suggesting that moving Kinsler to left would make him age like a left fielder? Is there any precedent for that?

    Comment by SeanP — April 10, 2012 @ 1:49 pm

  9. Hmm. This is what I meant to post:

    “The difference in expected declines between the positions evens that out a bit over the five year window, but Kinsler is likely to be somewhat less valuable as a left fielder than a second baseman.”

    Are you suggesting that moving Kinsler to left would make him age like a left fielder? Is there any precedent for that?

    Comment by SeanP — April 10, 2012 @ 1:50 pm

  10. “second baseman are generally the smaller guys who didn’t have the arm or range for shortstop, so they’re likely to be a less athletic”

    So then it becomes irrelevent in Kinsler’s case. Right?

    Comment by John — April 10, 2012 @ 2:17 pm

  11. What makes you assume a move to LF? Couldn’t a move to 3B be just as or more likely?

    Comment by William Cohen — April 10, 2012 @ 2:33 pm

  12. No because they have Beltre at 3rd until 2015. Moving him twice would be very counter productive especially since Beltre is an excellent defender

    Comment by Cam Thomas — April 10, 2012 @ 2:50 pm

  13. beltre??

    Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — April 10, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  14. Yes, Beltre is an excellent defender (possibly the best 3B of all time) but he will age just like the rest of ballplayers. He could easily be at least a part-time DH or a 1B by the time Profar is ready to come up.

    Comment by William Cohen — April 10, 2012 @ 3:29 pm

  15. So Dave, are you just going to “replace all” for Ian Kinsler and insert Brandon Phillips? Obviously not as good as Kinsler, but essentially all the same issues, near same total value, 1 more year.

    Comment by Jeff — April 10, 2012 @ 3:48 pm

  16. You realize the article says that Profar is in Double A and may push for roster space next season right? You think Beltre is going to age so dramatically over this season and next that he will be a part time DH or 1B by that time?

    Comment by joseph — April 10, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  17. Maybe there is some bias from the roid-era guys (Offerman, Vidro, and sad to say my A&M alumn Knoblach) due to smaller-framed second basemen bodies not handling the extra bulk and strength as well as larger framed outfield, thirdbasemen, firstbasemen, and pitchers do? If you remove all roid-era guys (playing from late 80’s until the testing was put in place) from the analysis, both good and bad, does that show a largely different pattern?

    This is assuming (and hoping) Ian isn’t a PED guy.

    Comment by JR Ewing — April 10, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  18. If the Rangers are really high on Profar, why wouldn’t they just trade Andrus if it came down to it? By playing Profar at 2B and Kinsler in LF they are wasting positional value on both players.

    I would imagine they could get a TON in return for Elvis. Obviously it would take the right deal, but it’s something I would think they look at.

    Comment by microwave donut — April 10, 2012 @ 5:00 pm

  19. Andrus for Heyward after this year. Braves desperately need a ss, rangers need a corner of with a big bat. Win win.

    *i know this is unlikely because Heyward would need to be at least as good as his rookie season for the rangers to do this in which case, the braves wouldn’t do it

    Comment by Matt — April 10, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

  20. if the rangers do decide to move beltre off of third base, it will be to open up a spot for mike olt, their promising young third base prospect.

    Comment by alex d — April 10, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

  21. Elvis’ agent is Scott Boras. I expect Elvis gets traded when the FO thinks Profar is ready. Beltre isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, and although Olt has potential, I don’t think it’s gonna-be-here-soon potential.

    Comment by Tex Pantego — April 10, 2012 @ 7:23 pm

  22. Come on Watches…you better than that. Also, Brooks Robinson is clearly the best defensive 3rd baseman of all time.

    Comment by Sac Man — April 10, 2012 @ 9:22 pm

  23. The Reds don’t have a guy like Jurickson Profar at any position at any level in their minors though. So the stability of keeping Phillips probably means more to them.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — April 11, 2012 @ 4:05 am

  24. Plus then the Braves have a hole in the OF. They aren’t exactly stacked there either you know. Prado has to play third when Chipper’s knees act up, Bourn might be gone after next year.

    I wish the Rangers had a pitching hold. I’d love to get Andrus back.

    Although really, Andrus is proven. You could probably get quite a bit in return for Profar if you don’t care about money.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — April 11, 2012 @ 4:07 am

  25. Hmm. You take defense out of it and Kinsler still ranks out top 25 and still ranks out ahead of Hamilton. And this makes him less valuable in LF for what reason? If Profar is more valuable at 2nd than the left fielder that Kinsler would replace then you would have to assume that Kinsler/Profar is more valuable than LFer/Kinsler.

    Comment by Miles — April 11, 2012 @ 9:04 am

  26. I tried to match your analysis using shortstops and didn’t see a striking difference. Do we know 2B’s actually age worse than SS’s or anyone else?

    Comment by Lex Logan — April 11, 2012 @ 5:10 pm

  27. I’m from the future.

    Elvis Andrus is the Yankees starting SS in 2014.

    Comment by Futurerama — April 13, 2012 @ 5:54 am

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