FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. I like it as an extra thing to look at when evaluating matchups but, like you said, you can’t take the hitter’s advantage against a cutter and expect it them to fair well against Halladay’s cutter. Also, each pitch value is based on 100 pitches and no hitter will ever see any pitch that many times in a game. It’s a fun and interesting to look at, to see which types of pitches hitters have faired well against, though.

    Comment by Jonathan C. Mitchell — April 11, 2012 @ 4:19 pm

  2. very interested to see how this turns out. Not expecting something revolutionary but I’m a big fan of pitch values and love this type of pregame analysis

    Comment by pbjsandwich — April 11, 2012 @ 4:23 pm

  3. The interesting thing is how such data (more available to MLB than us) is affecting offense overall. Ever since Pitch FX and cheap technology, every pitching staff have been able to maximize their own pitchers’ abilities against the hitters they face. I’m quite sure they not only know this, but also how location, pitch speed, etc factors into the hitters’ ability to make good contact.

    In this way pitchers have more of an advantage over hitters than they ever have before. Hitters cannot utilize technology in a similar way, all the control of what kind of pitch is to be thrown is in the hands of the pitcher – the hitter can only try to hit what’s thrown. If he can’t hit fastballs up and in, pitchers know this to a percision and detail unthinkable just 10 years ago.

    Comment by Dan in Philly — April 11, 2012 @ 4:32 pm

  4. I really like the idea, but I’d much prefer it with linear weights based off batted ball type than off result. They’re real easy to implement, and I think they’d make the Fangraphs version more credible than they are now.

    Do you have the sway to change that yet? Soon?

    Also, I’d like to know more about matchups first. For instance, Pomeroy claims that in college basketball, the offense has way more effect on turnover rate than the defense does. I’d like to know more about whether the pitchers linear weight out the batters seems to Mayer more and by hire much.

    Comment by Whelk — April 11, 2012 @ 4:33 pm

  5. I actually used something like this in ‘predicting’ the results of the postseason last year. I got the NLCS right, but missed badly on the ALCS and World Series (though, I was a strike away from getting it right in the WS haha).

    Comment by Frag — April 11, 2012 @ 4:36 pm

  6. Nice work.

    Don’t worry about getting the batting order so much. The information could be done for each pitcher vs each team without scrambling to get it finished. Would delete it from the picture to avoid confusion. Thought Jim Thome was leading off for a second.

    Halladay vs. Marlins’ hitters, could also be confusing, since it’s Halladay vs. the league, and the Marlins’ hitters against the league. Would remove that as well.

    You did clarify after the picture, but said you wanted feedback.

    Be interesting to see if Halladay throws more than 19% curveballs, or if his pitches are so good, he doesn’t need to.

    Comment by But — April 11, 2012 @ 4:59 pm

  7. Great suggestions, thanks. Will incorporate them into the next iteration.

    Comment by Bill Petti — April 11, 2012 @ 6:25 pm

  8. Putting the yearly pitch values in(maybe career too, to account for aberrations), such as Halladay’s FB -0.8, CT 19.5, CB 14.1 would be very beneficial.

    Comment by But — April 11, 2012 @ 7:03 pm

  9. “The top of each table lists how often the pitcher has thrown each pitch type over the past three years.”

    If it’s just % thrown by pitcher shouldn’t it be…

    Pitch Type FB, SL, etc.
    %Thrown last 3 years

    Bringing the /c is runs saved per 100 pitches if I read that correctly.

    Comment by But — April 11, 2012 @ 7:30 pm

  10. As is, I’m not sure this is terribly useful. But if you split it up L/R I’d be more inclined to glean something from it. Not sure if the pitch lwts can be split.

    Comment by Slartibartfast — April 11, 2012 @ 8:27 pm

  11. Well looks like Johnson got completely shellacked and Halladay has had a pretty good game so far. Isn’t it annoying when anecdotes refute a well-thought out idea?

    Comment by jfree — April 11, 2012 @ 9:15 pm

  12. Thought about this a little bit more. First off, I agree with Slartibartfast that breaking it out by handedness would be nice.

    Secondly, thinking more on the matchups part, If you show the pitcher’s linear weights in addition to percentage used, you can break it into four quadrents (pitcher above average/hitter above average, pitcher above average/hitter below average, etc.)

    Comment by Whelk — April 11, 2012 @ 9:18 pm

  13. “Halladay should generally dominate this lineup with his curveball. Halladay sports one of the best curves in the league, and outside of Chris Coghlan, no Marlins hitters has an advantage against the curveball when it comes to run values.”

    What is refuted?

    Comment by But — April 11, 2012 @ 10:31 pm

  14. Handedness is a must. Obviously, a slider from a lefty is a completely different beast for a hitter to handle than a slider from a righty.

    Comment by monkey business — April 11, 2012 @ 10:37 pm

  15. The idea of this post was to use a new tool to look at batter vs pitcher match ups. The fact that the tool apparently made a prediction that didn’t turn out to be anywhere near the truth is problematic when arguing for the usefulness of the tool.

    Yes, he does say that it is not a great example. This raises the question, why is it the example?

    Comment by monkey business — April 11, 2012 @ 10:41 pm

  16. I love this idea, Bill. However you fine-tune it, I’ll look forward to them in the future.

    Comment by Ben Hall — April 11, 2012 @ 11:06 pm

  17. What is refuted?

    Looking at the match ups, Josh Johnson has a pretty significant advantage over the Phillies’ hitters. Jim Thome and Shane Victorino are pretty good fastball hitters, but outside of those two Johnson shows a clear advantage in terms of his two predominant pitches (fastball and slider).

    Box Score for Josh Johnson — 3.2IP, 11 H, 6R, 6ER, 1K, 1BB, 16.875 ERA, 3.27 WHIP

    Now I suppose you’re going to prattle on about what the word refuted really means — or perhaps we can argue about what the author really meant by “clear advantage”. Or perhaps we can argue that those box score numbers are all relatively good in some way.

    Comment by jfree — April 11, 2012 @ 11:08 pm

  18. obvious troll is obvious

    Comment by ccoop — April 11, 2012 @ 11:27 pm

  19. The prattling begins. I know well what refuted means, and don’t wish to argue.

    “Isn’t it annoying when anecdotes refute a well-thought out idea?”

    Conclusion of the author may have been refuted, no offense, but not the idea itself.

    Comment by But — April 11, 2012 @ 11:28 pm

  20. forgetting the outcome of tonight’s game, i’m very intrigued by this as a way at looking at pitcher vs team matchups. however, without R/L data, i fear it’s pretty useless at this point.

    second, whoa! that marlins OF is quite an adventure defensively.

    Comment by jcxy — April 11, 2012 @ 11:38 pm

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