Comment by juan pierres mustache — April 16, 2012 @ 2:15 pm
Two questions that both boil down to “when do we start to worry?”:
1) What is a statistically significant sample size for IP and ABs?
I have an idea floating in the back of my head that 1/4 of the season is when we start to watch in earnest- 150 PA or 50 IP.
2) Has anyone started simulations to predict what the margin of difference between making and missing the playoffs will be?
Wins in April count as much as wins in September. How many games back of the wild card leaders are too many games?
I’m not overly concerned about the Royals outcomes this early season it is more with some of the decisions being made by Yost/Moore. Resigning Yuni and subsequently burying Giovatella does not bode well for Meyers’ ascension that you mentioned in the article. Then we get in season and Yost is putting Alcides Escobar, Chris Getz, and Jarrod Dyson in the one or two hole. This organization still has some fundamental flaws that are only okay as long as the pipeline from the minors continues to be very strong.
Comment by TheRoyalTreatment — April 16, 2012 @ 2:51 pm
Yea, but his SLG stabilizes too. So SLG and ISO are both stable…but AVG is not.
Very nice read on a team I’ve found very interesting over the past couple of seasons.
That being said, I feel the Royals’ window of opportunity is a bit larger than most think. With the very young in Moustakas, Hosmer, and Giavotella, and the prime/pre-prime ages of Gordon and Butler, respectively, the Royals from my best guess have 5 or 6+ years to develop pitching and find it through trades and the FA market. Moore worries me in the latter regard, but I still find this is and will be an exciting team to watch in the coming seasons. As for 2012 though, I agree that it just isn’t very likely.
I am watching the White Sox the same way. I know they aren’t going anywhere this year, despite the better than expected start. I just want to know things like who is a valuable part and can they get rid of the people that aren’t. Is Sale for real? Can the young arms in the bullpen do the job? Will Gordon Beckham ever be more than a flash in the pan? Can Morel, DeAza and Viciedo hit?
Hosmer and Gordon have a case of the bad BABIPs and Moustakas has shown good power/defense, if he can take a walk every once and a while you have an allstar 3rd baseman. I picked them to win 86 games and nothing has changed my mind so far.
Predicting them to win 86 games was absolutely absurd. If you did that, you are either a total homer or you don’t watch the team actually play baseball.
It’s true that Gordon has been both unluckly and extra-strikeouty. Hosmer, on the other hand, has the problem that he will continue to have until he leaves as a FA for an organization that values having professional ABs. His 3 pitch AB in the bottom of the 9th on Saturday was a prime example. Just swinging from his heels in a tie game. Ned Yost insisting that Dyson steal 2B on a pitcher whose move was so good he was afraid to get a lead against was not helpful, of course. But It’s one in a long line of horrible, terrible, no good decisions by Yost on his way to being fired by June. Hosmer’s development as a hitter is far more important.
Forgot to make a point in the optimist’s favor. All series long all Royals pitchers were just grooving belt high fastballs. The four guys in the middle of that lineup do not miss that pitch (apparently Hafner doesn’t hanging CBs either). Either this is a fluke and they are simply much better than they pitched this weekend, or Dave Eiland has made some changes that the entire pitching staff is not doing well with. I can’t remember the last time I saw an entire major league staff just grooving FB’s over a few game stretch like that.
Oh wait, yes I can, it was last year’s Royals. And the 2010 club. And 2009 …
My concern with the Royals has to do with the number of prospects they need to “pan out”. In short they need an unreal tic number of their top prospects to succeed .. and they need them to succeed at the same time 2013-2014.
Montgomery and Lamb were two “locks” and they’ve already experienced big setbacks (IMO).
How good does the pitching even really need to be?
Let’s say upside for Moose/Hosmer is Zimmerman/Votto (which would be ridiculous), they wouldn’t need that good of a staff to contend. Their pen has quite a few really good young arms too. Collins is one of my favorites to watch.
What is the middle of the road prediction for Moose and Hosmer?
If you have a great offense and if the division sucks, which I think the AL Central will over the next few years given that Detroit is in a “win now but we’re screwed in 3 years” situation, your SP doesn’t have to be stellar.
IMO what they should do is what the Rangers did in 2010. You have “good enough” pitching and a stacked farm. Get a true number 1 ace any way you can. Anchor the rotation with that guy. Maybe sign him long term.
Of course the big difference is the DFW metroplex is huge and KC is not so huge. So that might throw a wrinkle in the plans. I guess the other option is to be as smart as the Rays. Donno which is harder to do, grow KC to the size of DFW or to suddenly make DM as smart as the guys in St. Petersberg.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — April 17, 2012 @ 2:23 am
This makes me think my (okay, I’m probably not the first to think this) theory of stats vs scouts. I believe that it’s better to scout amateurs and young players because you don’t have a baseline group and they project differently. I believe it’s better for stat people with established big leaguers because you can make sense of the stats. If a guy hits 30 home runs in the AL Central, you basically know what kind of player he is and if he’s 31 you have a general idea of how he’s going to project. If you have a kid who hits a lot of home runs in high school, it’s hard to look at stats.
This is why Moore is the way he is. Francoeur is a guy scouts like. Moore likes Francoeur. Francoeur was a top prospect at one point.
KC should put Moore in charge of player development and hire someone else for the big league side of things.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — April 17, 2012 @ 2:29 am