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  1. Dave,
    I think you’ll find that JJ Hardy was traded by the Twins to the O’s after 2010 (in which he put up a 93 wRC+), and then received a 3-year, $21m extension while in the midst of his 30-hr, 113 wRC+ 2011.

    Comment by Charlie — April 18, 2012 @ 5:00 pm

  2. Yep. Wasn’t a FA deal.

    Comment by Os Fan — April 18, 2012 @ 5:17 pm

  3. yeah, but he was only 2 1/2 months away. I wouldn’t think they got that much of a discount at that point in time.

    Comment by Brian — April 18, 2012 @ 5:28 pm

  4. I love fangraphs, but I think a lot of the contract and front office analysis on the site could be greatly improved by taking organizational context into account. The Angels went all in for the immediate future (the next 4-5 years). After that, Pujols’ contract will likely become an albatross and many of their other current stars will be on expired or expiring contracts. Even if they’re not able to get much of a discount, it makes sense for them to lock their currently cost-controlled players into a below market contract for an extra year or two.

    Comment by Jordan — April 18, 2012 @ 5:51 pm

  5. Investing in players whose value comes entirely from defense is risky. Defensive players tend to put up volatile seasons, mainly since speed is a huge factor in the calculations. The Mariners are regretting that 4/20M deal they did with Franklin Gutierrez. Heck there was even a season where UZR loved Mark Reynold’s defense.

    It’s much safer to invest in players like Hardy and Rollins, players who can recoup come of that value with their bats.

    Comment by Mike M — April 18, 2012 @ 5:57 pm

  6. “Defensive players tend to put up volatile seasons”

    Is this even true? It’s been stated that defensive stats are volatile, but is a player’s defensive ability/performance volatile? Or is it just a flaw in the stats?

    Comment by vivalajeter — April 18, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

  7. It just seems to feel this way. I’m an O’s fan and I remember a couple years ago when the Orioles gave a 2 year deal to Cesar Izturis. He was coming off of a 2.5 win season, 90% of it coming from defense. Everyone thought it was a good deal, and he then went on to be replacement value (factoring in the negative fWAR season) over the course of the contract.

    Comment by Mike M — April 18, 2012 @ 6:13 pm

  8. Defensive metrics are known to be volatile. I don’t think actual performance is quite so volatile, aside from large observable declines in athletic ability.

    Comment by Governator — April 18, 2012 @ 6:19 pm

  9. What does this say about Jean Segura and does this make him a valuable chip going forward?

    Comment by Sandy Kazmir — April 18, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

  10. …but had to settle for 3 year, $33 million contract.

    Poor Jimmy Rollins settling for 11 mil a year.

    Comment by Randy Bobandy — April 18, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

  11. I think you’d be surprised to find out Rollins has been a very average hitter (at best) for quite awhile now.

    Comment by BlackOps — April 18, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

  12. I think you can look to an even earlier Angels SS precedent here to guide the contours of this contract. The Angels signed Orlando Cabrera for 4 years/$32M (2005-2008). Cabrera delivered $42.7M in value the first three years of his contract, at which point the Angels traded him for a one year of Jon Garland.

    Those were Cabrera’s 30-33 seasons, the deal worked out fine for the Angels, and I think it’s reasonable to say that Cabrera’s bat and glove fall well into Aybar’s range.

    As an Angels fan, I still think this is a bit of an overpay — the Angels have alternatives on the farm and in Maicer Izturis. But looking at it in the context of Cabrera, this makes enough sense, and I think two years into Aybar’s contract, he’ll be plenty tradeable if the Angels need to trade him.

    Comment by Turks Teeth — April 18, 2012 @ 8:29 pm

  13. I’d say $11 million per year is much better than $8.75 million… since when is a 20% discount not much?

    Comment by mcbrown — April 19, 2012 @ 9:48 am

  14. Sorry, this wasn’t actually meant to be a reply to Randy’s comment…

    Comment by mcbrown — April 19, 2012 @ 9:49 am

  15. “9 million per year for a league average player is what you would expect on the open market”

    What a great era to be a ballplayer. Crazy the money that is thrown around

    Comment by Wespom9 — April 19, 2012 @ 12:49 pm

  16. Keeping your own league average player is probably still a better value than having to sign OPP (other people’s players). 2012 Hardball Times has an article that discusses this. Meanwhile, Albert is a bargain at $12 and $16 the next two seasons. The structuring of the contract makes nice with their whopping TV contract. Arte has explained enough in interviews that it doesn’t sound like he believes or worries about the later years of the contract will be an albatross. 2016 – Weaver, Wilson, Pujols due $65.7, although I guess we throw in Aybar now. 2017 – Albert due $26 and then the rest of payroll will be filled in from there as Albert’s salary escalates to $30 by 2021. It feels like the Angels are prepared to fill in the blanks as they see fit from 2017-2021 when Albert is old and “stealing” money for value he will allegedly have provided during the first handful of years of the contract.

    Comment by Rich Johnson — April 19, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  17. The Cubs are going to look really stupid for not extending Starlin Castro before he became an all star regardless of whether he improves significantly on defense.

    Comment by JamesDaBear — April 21, 2012 @ 7:35 am

  18. The other thing with Aybar is that there is some thought that he hasn’t put it all together yet, and league perception with him is pretty strong.

    Comment by AA — April 23, 2012 @ 1:52 am

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