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  1. Not to nitpick, but Bell wasn’t “one strike away from the save”. He only got to 2 outs when Hairston grounded out and then Kirk stepped up; he took a ball and then ripped a ball over Stanton’s head. In other words, he never had 2 strikes against with 2 outs. He got Turner and Hairston into 2-strike holes in the prior plate appearances but both were with 1 out.

    Comment by Greg — April 27, 2012 @ 2:36 pm

  2. That jumped out at me as well. They tied the game with 1 out, so he was never 1 strike away from the save.

    As to the main point, he clearly took a step backwards last year and it seems to be continuing. It’s tough to give up on him because he was very good for several years, but the contract didn’t look so great in the off-season and it’s looking much worse now.

    Comment by vivalajeter — April 27, 2012 @ 2:54 pm

  3. And this is the difference between good clubs and bad clubs: good clubs acquire players who aren’t in imminent danger of declining to irrelevancy (Philadelphia picking up Broxton, even the Reds picking up Madson with the injury just being bad luck). Bad clubs make overpriced acquisitions like Miami did with Bell.

    He’s garbage. They’ll keep trotting him out there in order to justify their contract, but he’s done-zo. Stick some tongs in him and call him macaroni.

    Comment by JoeC — April 27, 2012 @ 5:17 pm

  4. Bah… Philadelphia picking up PAPELBON, not Broxton. Don’t know where my brain got that one from (but speaking of bad teams making bad acquisitions…).

    Comment by JoeC — April 27, 2012 @ 5:24 pm

  5. JoeC,

    You should expect someone from Philadelphia to tell you that the Papelbon signing was not a good move. To wit, sinking that much money into a closer might cost them the ability to resign Hamels; no closer is worth that much money; etc.

    Comment by LTG — April 27, 2012 @ 6:20 pm

  6. I happen to love the Papelbon deal. Although I hate the Phillies.

    Comment by vivalajeter — April 27, 2012 @ 6:48 pm

  7. This is a joke post right? Have you seen how much money the Phillies gave to Ryan Howard? That’s one of the most obviously bad contracts in recent history; give me a break.

    Comment by Adam — April 27, 2012 @ 7:31 pm

  8. Of course… I watched that whole inning, too. Fixed.

    Comment by Jack Moore — April 27, 2012 @ 7:37 pm

  9. Yeah but his point is fair. The lee and doc deals are at worst on the low end of fair. The bell signing was silly. It was the kind of signing that reeked of an owner interfering. I just can’t buy that bell had any offer remotely approaching that one

    Comment by bpdelia — April 27, 2012 @ 8:54 pm

  10. let me tell you. anyone that watches baseball 24 hours a day can tell you something bad before it happens…

    this has been the case for jwerth, b zito, crawford, pujols, lackey and now h. bell

    i know for a fact that the above guys were going to slump and play dead.
    j werth was pressing last year and maybe pujols is pressing too, but lackey was the clear red flag sign. h bell is too. the guy is a baboon on the mound.

    watch baseball long enough and you will outsmart the GMs.

    papelbon is on the decline, but he clearly is better than guerra, h bell, francisco, or broxton.

    Comment by idiot GM — April 27, 2012 @ 10:08 pm

  11. Some major league team should give this prescient wonder a job!

    Comment by WinTwins — April 27, 2012 @ 11:53 pm

  12. Even Jim Bowden reads fangraphs.

    Comment by Paul Wilson — April 28, 2012 @ 1:15 am

  13. Give us a list of your predictions now, genius. Let’s see how they turn out.

    Comment by Baltar — April 28, 2012 @ 1:47 pm

  14. Simple answer – he left them back in 2010. Anyone who wasn’t a Marlin could see his velocity and peripherals were on the decline throughout 2011, so this isn’t a surprise.

    Comment by Luke G — April 28, 2012 @ 2:19 pm

  15. hey you guys, give Adam a break, huh?

    Comment by JDanger — April 29, 2012 @ 7:35 am

  16. Baj. Yankees fan here and I agree on zito and werh but NO ONE predicted crawford would be a disaster. Overpaid? Yes. His war would come down when fenway hurt his uzr? Yeah. But NOBODY knew he was going to be a useless player for the first year and a half of the deal. Ditto lackey. Over paid injury risk? Yeah. Worst starter in baseball? NFW. It was reasonable to expect lackey to be am, over paid solid #3 type or be hurt. It was not reasonable to expect him to be basically the worst pitcher in baseball.

    Comment by bpdelia — April 29, 2012 @ 3:42 pm

  17. Signing a declining (yet proven) closer to a juicy contract – this is not going to end well.

    PM crpgdetlvng apregpostid506573350011

    Comment by Paul Merlo — April 29, 2012 @ 10:45 pm

  18. He was the worst pitcher in baseball BECAUSE he was hurt.

    Comment by RC — April 30, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

  19. “The decline of Bell’s swinging strike rate began last year, as it fell from 10.6% in 2011 (10.1% in 2010 as well) to 8.3%. ”

    You are writing this sometime in 2013, judging by this sentence. So you must know how things ended up working out for Bell in 2012. Are you just gonna keep us in suspense? For a bonus I wouldn’t mind hearing how the November presidential election went too. Thanks!

    Comment by This Sentence Hurt My Head — May 3, 2012 @ 1:10 am

  20. But that doesn’t jive with the data under Pitch Type. It says he hit his career peak of 94.0 avg. in both 2010-2011. So far this year he’s at 93.3, which is within noise of the normal 0.5 mph dropoff the league sees during April.

    I keep hearing that Bell is having velocity issues, but it doesn’t seem to show up in the numbers.

    Comment by This Sentence Hurt My Head — May 3, 2012 @ 1:14 am

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