Chat wouldn’t work for me, but I’m interesting in your thoughts on Nick Ahmed(A+, .287, .381, .426, 12 SB(1 CS), 17 BB, 26 K, 124 PA) and particularly Tommy La Stella(A+, .301, .398, .484, 7 SB( 0 CS), 13 BB, 5 K, 113 PA).
So…I’ve read some of the lit on age vs. level and there’s a lot of mention of Bundy’s command at a given age vs. Cole’s. To what degree do you weight skill at a given age as a factor in your evaluation of a player? Do you feel that in this year’s draft that Correa should be valued higher than he is for being good so much younger than his rivals?
I recently had a conversation with a scout who said Walker would be ready by spring 2014. With his already having success in AA, he might receive a taste of MLB before then, but I think he was speaking in terms of Walker being in Seattle for good.
2014 seems reasonable for Bundy given he still needs to graduate A+, AA and maybe AAA before surfacing in Baltimore. For Bundy, it might wind up being more about building up his innings limits than his stuff being ready.
I saw Ahmed prior to the start of the regular season and liked his size and movements at SS. He might have some maturity issues to work through, and his bat speed/swing mechanics may be challenged at AA with more power stuff.
This is a good example of the stats vs. stuff disconnect when the conversation becomes more about the numbers and less about actual stuff.
Is Kelly off to a nice start (for him), sure, but his ever-dropping K rate as he advances levels is not a good sign that he’ll miss bats at the big league level. Add to this a walk rate that is a bit high for a guy who doesn’t rack up strikeouts and what’s left is more of a back end start projection (if that) for the 24-year old.
As for Miller, he is walking too many, but he has always, and is still missing bats with legit power stuff. At 21, he’s 2 1/2 years younger than Kelly. Add to this the fact Miller gave up 8 ER in his first 8 IP and what’s left is a top prospect who has allowed 9 ER in his last 26 1/3 for a 3.08 ERA in his last 5 starts.
If the Cardinals called up Kelly first, it would be to allow Miller more time to refine his command at the MLB level. In the end, there’s much less risk promoting Kelly and allowing him to take his lumps because Miller has a much higher ceiling.
I admittedly know little about the 2012 draft at this point, but this is a good question. For top flight prospects, the combination of huge tools and baseball skill is huge. Profar, Bundy, these guys combine elite tools with baseball skills which help me believe each will develop to his full potential.
If the tools are a little light, baseball skills can hide the lack of tools for awhile, but the player will eventually be exposed and those gaudy MILB numbers will dissipate at the big league level, if not Double-A.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, huge tools and no discernible baseball skill makes it difficult to envision a big leaguer, but I’ll always take that guy on the off chance it eventually clicks. These types have the ability to become star level players, but the chances are often slim. However, I’d rather bet on slim than a no tools all skills guy who will max out in double-A.