He’s a lock for Type A, outside of the Braves back end of the bullpen, the RP FA market is pretty barren. I honestly don’t think Wagner cares if he gets very little money (compared to his option), I think he just wants a closer’s job
You can find reverse-engineered Elias Rankings on the ‘net and right now, Wagner is somewhere in the middle of the Type A’s. With the categories being appearances, (lesser weighted) innings pitched, W+Saves, ERA, IP/H and K/BB, it’s not a done deal that Wagner is a lock for Type A status.
Consider Wagner’s small amount of IP and how one poor outing could drastically impact his rate stats and tumble him into Type B status.
It’s still not a bad move for the Red Sox. Not as dramatically amazing as Cameron makes it out to be… but that’s nothing new.
Considering Wagner’s desire to play close to home in Viriginia, he’ll be a prime candidate for the Nationals and Orioles (he’s expressed interest in playing for Washington) since both club’s need closers. If Wags holds Type A status, that’ll turn the compensation into a late sandwich pick and an early 2nd round selection since the first 15 are protected slots. The success rate of players drafted from 31-60 is not amazing but with two picks in that range for Wagner, it’s reasonable to expect that you get a player out of that mix.
@Nick: Type A/B/none status is based on all players not just players available.
Mike Gonzalez (32)
Kevin Gregg (32)
Trevor Hoffman (42)
Fernando Rodney (33)
Rafael Soriano (30)
Jose Valverde (30)
i don’t know, i have a hard time believing a 39 year old wagner coming off of TJ is a more attractive option than most of those guys, and i can’t foresee many teams lining up to give away their first round draft pick for one year of billy wagner.
The elias rankings for this year take 2008 into account as well. Wagner pitched until late August last year. The sample size with his stats is easily large enough that 1 bad outing will barely affect his rankings. There’s no chance Boston will use him enough times to damage his type A status if he’s pitching poorly enough to hurt it.
Wait, you’re saying that there’s a chance the Sox offer him arbitration and get a $8-9M setup man? I think you can’t lose more than 20% of your salary in arbitration, right? Not even the Yankees would have a $8M setup man.
Wagner did this right: If he doesn’t pitch well or thinks there won’t be a great market for him, he can accept arbitration and get the same amount he would have gotten with the option. If he declines, it’s because he thinks he’ll do better. If the Sox don’t risk offering it, there’s no compensation and he gets more as a free agent, and can go where he wants.
Seems like unless his arm falls off in September, the WORST case for him would have been the Sox exercising his option.
If Wagner demanded the Sox not pick up his option, why do they still have to pay a buyout?
Comment by Nick Smith — August 26, 2009 @ 11:20 am
I think Cameron is exagerating how few teams will be interested in Wagner. Not that I agree with this line of thought, but MLB GM have proven on many occassions to pay a premium for relievers who have a history of success as a a closer. Yes Juan Cruz had trouble finding a team last season, but he has never really closed teams and was signed as a set up man. Because of Wagner’s history, all the saves, and rep he will fool some dumb GM to offer him a 2 yr deal to close even at the expense of draft picks. (unless Wagner craps the bed) Also for those of you wondering if Boston would risk having Wagner accept arb, the answer is a resounding yes. The value of a 1st round pick is around 3.5 million and a sandwich pick is probably slightly less. If Wagner accepts arb, the Sox will have 30 days to cancell the contract at 1/6 the cost. (Im guessing around 1.5 million). That is a gamble any front office would take.
Are you positive? I’m not sure, but Rosenthal wrote today: “Yet, as one general manager points out, accepting arbitration might be Wagner’s best financial move — the Red Sox, adhering to the 20 percent maximum paycut rule, could offer him no less than $8.4 million.”
No mention of the fact that Minaya gave away two high draft picks for two irrelevant players from Boston? Wagner is pretty much a lock to decline arbitration from any team that isn’t going to guarantee him the chance to get to 400 saves, so Omar needed to press Boston for at least one high upside prospect, if not two, since either the Mets or Red Sox will net those picks courtesy of Wagner’s type A status. Not sure why people aren’t more attuned to yet another Minaya blunder.
The Mets had already announced that they were not going to offer arbitration. That may well have been blunder, but once they’ve decided not to offer the arbitration, the salary relief alone makes this deal make sense.
Boston, I believe, is one of the few organizations with the stones and resources to offer Wagner arbitration. If he pitches well this fall, it’s the right move. In fact, judged exclusively on the possibility of picking up the two picks, it is a nice move for the Sox. Add in the potential for on-field benefits, and we have another example of how good Theo is at his job.