FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. I’m gonna go ahead and call Yu 6.2IP 5ER 2BB 6K, Felix 9.0IP 1ER 3BB 8K.

    Comment by Josh — May 21, 2012 @ 10:41 am

  2. That is a very interesting choice. I would guess that switching their lines would be more likely, considering the offenses involved. Regardless, it should be a fun game to watch.

    Comment by TFINY — May 21, 2012 @ 11:27 am

  3. Rangers usually have had success against Felix in the past. Felix owns a career 4.03 ERA against the Rangers in 203.1 IP.

    Comment by elijah — May 21, 2012 @ 12:07 pm

  4. Seattle’s “sodo” neighborhood is short for “south docks”. After a long stretch of perfect spring weather, rain has returned to Seattle for tonight’s game.

    Comment by madvillain — May 21, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

  5. In 16 games over the years in Arlington, the Rangers have managed a .739 OPS against Felix, which is 24% worse than his career line. And he didn’t look good in his last start, so…. Yeah, I’d definitely give the edge to Yu this time around.

    Comment by joser — May 21, 2012 @ 1:14 pm

  6. Carson: If you’re going to repeat most sub-headings in the following sentence, please do so in another language. It’ll be less annoying and I can actually learn something with all those extra letters. Your signal-to-noise verbiage ratio is approaching William F. Buckley territory and I fear for your soul.

    Comment by Slacker George — May 21, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

  7. If Texas and Seattle with Darvish and Hernandez pitching is a NERD score of 7, what is a 10? Is it because Seattle isn’t contending that the game isn’t higher? Also, I’m not sure how Darvish, or Felix for that matter, are only 7’s as well.

    Comment by Bip — May 21, 2012 @ 3:30 pm

  8. If you want to talk pitcher-vs-team splits, I got one for Yu Darvish and the Seattle Mariners right here… let’s forget the notion that the letters on the Rangers’ uniforms somehow make them better against Felix, mmk?

    The Rangers are better than the Mariners. Yu Darvish has not yet proven himself to be as good as the King. Let’s leave it at that.

    Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — May 21, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  9. According to the link that explains how GameNerd is calculated, this is the equation. Home starter NERD is marked HSPN, Home team NERD is marked HTN, Away uses “A” instead of “H”

    ((3HSPN)+(HTN)+(3ASPN)+(ATN))/8. Round to nearest integer.

    So using the above values, you have (21+4+21+10)/8, or 56/8 = 7.

    As for the other part, Team NERD scores are calculated using math that makes my head hurt (I can do it, but I don’t enjoy it, so I’m not going to re-attempt it here). Just know that it involves standard deviations of the following components: batting runs above average, park-adjusted HRs per flyball rate, speed score, bullpen xFIP (lower is better), team UZR, team payroll (below average is better), batter age (younger is better), and WAR-expected-wins minus actual wins.

    Pitcher NERD scores are calculated using similar math, but the components are xFIP (lower is better), swinging-strike percentage, overall strike percentage, fastball velocity, age (younger is better), ERA minus xFIP, and gives a bonus to knuckleballers.

    In this case, the Rangers are young, but not that young; they hit a lot of HRs, but not considering that park, their defense is acceptable but not spectacular in most positions, and they aren’t vastly underperforming their WAR. The Mariners pen and ah…other interesting factors…do make them low. Felix is good, but he’s not throwing 100, he’s not throwing knuckleballs, and he’s not inducing a swinging strike percentage too much above average. Likewise with Yu.

    Comment by jorgath — May 21, 2012 @ 5:39 pm

  10. To follow up, for a 10, you’d actually need the weighted average to be greater than or equal to 9.5.

    The simplest way would be one team with a 10 NERD, one team with a 9 NERD, one SP with a 10 NERD, and one SP with a 9 NERD. That comes out to 76/8, or 9.5 –> 10.

    Comment by jorgath — May 21, 2012 @ 5:43 pm

  11. Jesus. Is it just me, or is this writer completely unreadable?

    Every damn day, this is borderline pathetic.

    Sorry, folks, statheads and non, alike, but this is trash.

    “Regarding what I had regarded prior, in regards to what I was regarding…”

    Comment by Patrick — May 21, 2012 @ 7:05 pm

  12. As handsome and charming as I am, actual writing talent is very much a secondary consideration.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — May 21, 2012 @ 7:12 pm

  13. I absolutely believe you are the handsomest (or most handsome) man in the land. But you are also, easily, the least legible, readable, and digestible. I suggest a 5th grade grammar lesson, but I have a feeling, that the plethora of numbers available to you, and the accompanying cachet have eliminated the need for improvement. Nevertheless, your writing is atrocious.

    Please try harder. Only because you do this daily.

    Comment by Patrick — May 21, 2012 @ 7:17 pm

  14. I can’t help it. I’m the Voice of a Generation.

    That it’s a generation starting ca. 40 years from now, I can’t help that.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — May 21, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

  15. Cleverness is never an appropriate tool for avoidance. You are not ahead of your time, and neither was Malcolm Lowry. Decent writing is decent writing. Decency is all I ask. Take care, fellow.

    Comment by Patrick — May 21, 2012 @ 7:27 pm

  16. 1. Never said Darvish is as good as Felix

    2. 5.1 IP sample vs 200+ IP sample…. hmmmmm. Yeah, the two are the same things.

    Comment by elijah — May 21, 2012 @ 8:02 pm

  17. I just got back. Turned on the game. Top of the fifth. Darvish has given up five runs. Are you a genie?

    Comment by TFINY — May 21, 2012 @ 11:32 pm

  18. Pretty close right! Ha to those who doubted the mighty king! And my prediction!

    Comment by Josh — May 22, 2012 @ 12:52 am

  19. Inning, a BB, and a K off with the King, 2 innings, 4 BB, and a K off with Darvish. No one thought the one true King would beat the small Japanese one!

    Comment by Josh — May 22, 2012 @ 12:56 am

  20. good prediction, man, that was pretty accurate

    Comment by phillies07_08 — May 22, 2012 @ 1:16 am

  21. Okay.

    It’d be easy to say you don’t get it. So I assume you do get it, and you don’t particularly care for it. So if you want to read this (if you don’t, then don’t read it), just click the subheading links in the Table of Contents and go to the part you want. The Cistulli-isms are only after the vital information, I promise.

    Comment by CJ — May 22, 2012 @ 6:13 am

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