The Giants bullpen was perfect last night for the last four innings, and that was the reason Cain got his 9th win. One of the benefits of having 3 starters averaging over 7 innings a start (Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong) is the health of the bullpen, and the Giants ‘pen has been very good all year long.
I’d be curious to see how they fare after a PG/NO as compared to how they perform after an outing where they threw a similar number of pitches. Seems to be like that might isolate the difference between a guy just being worn down from a high pitch count vs the ancillary issues surrounding throwing a PG/NO that impact a pitcher the next time out (media, etc…)
Comment by MrKnowNothing — June 19, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
Observing that the 4-seam fastball gets poorer results in the start after the no-hitter than it did in the no hitter tells us nothing interesting or useful. No-hitters are samples of extremely positive results for the pitcher, while for all we know the start afterward is just like any other random start; the “Follow-Ups” chart above may mimic the average baseline of pitchers in this sample. Do the same research for X pitch type compared to the Nth start before/after the no hitter and you may find similar results.
I totally agree with this point. Why do people who get super-lucky and draw an inside straight wind up with lousier hands the next time? Maybe because you’ve cherry-picked the luckiest outcome possible?
I also agree with the poster who said it was hard to understand the points made about the graph. In any case, I’d rather see a comparison of pitch quality (speed, movement, location) than pitch outcome. We already know it wasn’t another no-hitter.
I have often wondered if pitchers perform worse than usual after an outstanding performance where they pitched longer than usual. Thanks for providing an answer.
Specifically, I wondered if it was actually a poor decision for the team to have left Cain in so long with up to a 10-point lead.
Cain was clearly far worse due to being exhausted in his next start, and the Giants were fortunate to pull out a win despite his poor performance.
I will be interested to see how Cain fares in his next start, and I’d be interested in an analysis of how the other pitchers performed in their 2nd start following the great one.
Comment by Hurtlockertwo — June 20, 2012 @ 12:53 pm
A 10-“point” lead? Seriously though, you think any team is even going to consider taking out a pitcher who’s got a perfect game going? Particularly a perfectly healthy, 200+ inning every year workhorse who’d gone 120+ pitches many times in his career before (with no apparent negative impact on future performance)? Come on.
I’m not surprised that Cain was not sharp his next time out. He did extend himself in the perfecto, being conscious of it the entire game and trying to make every pitch perfect and therefore every one a stress pitch even with that 10 run lead. Then there’s the natural letdown on top of that and the fact that he was facing a better offensive club. Still though, he managed to pitch well enough to win. What will he do his next time out? Who the heck knows. But whatever he does, I doubt that what he did 2 starts ago will have anything to do with it.