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  1. Lester has been hurt this season by both a lack of run support and by his defense which has been pretty bad. If he had better help from his team he might be more involved in Cy Young talks. His pitching has been extremely effective since early May when he hit his groove.

    Comment by Matt S. — September 7, 2009 @ 12:28 pm

  2. It’s called bad luck. He couldn’t overcome it early on. No matter how good you are, you sometimes can’t catch a break.

    Comment by Slick — September 7, 2009 @ 2:51 pm

  3. Lester has been lights out this year. To the less trained (media) eye, it might look like his season has been worse based on ERA, W-L etc.

    Not to be that guy, and I know people were pissed at that guy selling his site so I won’t push the envelope but I wrote a piece on Roy Halladay’s “struggles” (as the Toronto media called it). Take a look at Doc`s schedule the past month it has been ridiculous, needless to say…

    Click my name or visit below. Would love to hear feedback, good or bad. No more advertising I promise!

    Comment by Matt B. — September 7, 2009 @ 2:58 pm

  4. And to think that just a couple of seasons ago, an all-around expert claimed that the combination of Lester and Papelbon wasn’t worth noted slugger disguised as 5th OF, Jeremy Reed.

    Comment by CaR — September 7, 2009 @ 4:26 pm

  5. Don’t worry, this is one guy you don’t have to worry about being overlooked by the MSM, they’ve been gushing over him since long before he’d demonstrated the performance to support it. Partly because of his story and the team he plays for, but mostly because they report the gushing of scouts, coaches, and opposing hitters.

    Comment by Judy — September 7, 2009 @ 5:20 pm

  6. Who cares, there are thousands of non-trades of the same ilk.

    Comment by Slick — September 7, 2009 @ 6:00 pm

  7. I went to high school with Lester. He was/is a ridiculous athlete. He had D1 offers for football and basketball by his sophomore year, could drive a golf ball almost 300 yards, and the Reds were looking at drafting him as a hitter. It’s awesome to see how good of a pitcher he’s becoming

    Comment by Jeff K — September 8, 2009 @ 7:06 am

  8. Verducci Effect and in increase in velocity don’t seem to go very well together.

    Comment by Steve C — September 8, 2009 @ 8:16 am

  9. And the cancer survivor story, don’t forget that.
    Whatever, 10.16 K/9 for a starter deserves attention.

    Comment by Joe R — September 8, 2009 @ 8:57 am

  10. Oh, I can’t even count how many times I’ve had to point out to someone what an especially poor example Jon Lester’s 2009 season is of the Verducci Effect.

    Comment by Judy — September 8, 2009 @ 9:05 am

  11. Dave,

    Great job using the charts to show consisely why Lester is so effective. The location chart really drives the point home.

    Comment by thumble — September 8, 2009 @ 9:54 am

  12. Pick a new name. I’m the real one, and I was never suspended.

    Comment by joser — September 8, 2009 @ 5:11 pm

  13. Lester in 2009 shows how ERA can fail.

    2008’s ERA of 3.21 vs. 2009’s of 3.41 makes it look like he did worse. However, first off, he played in front of a better defense in 2008 (as reflected in his BABIP). Second, his HR/FB rate normalized to 10.6% (and his HR/9 was 0.89). Given this, 2009 was much more reflective of Lester’s “real” abilities, and his real abilities now is a K/9 of nearly 10. Lester’s clearly shown an ability to be a low to mid 3’s ERA guy for years to come.

    Comment by Joe R — October 2, 2009 @ 8:54 am

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