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  1. “The Blue Jays are betting not that Edwin Encarnacion remains an elite hitter for the next three years, just a consistently above-average one”

    I concur.

    Also, at a 3yr/$29m salary, Edwin needs around 2.5 WAR/year to generate fair value. I think he can do it, especially now that his WAR will no longer be hurt by his bad defense at 3B.

    It makes me wonder though, since EE has shifted positions, do you think he’s going to be average, above average, or below average compared to the full time 1B/DH?

    Comment by Brian — July 12, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

  2. I thought it was 3yrs/27M with a 10M club option in 2016 …

    Comment by StK — July 12, 2012 @ 4:47 pm

  3. It is technically 3 years/27 million, but the 2 million buyout of his club option in 2016 guarantees that he will make 29 million if he’s bought out. So… 3 years 29 million guaranteed.

    Comment by Johnhavok — July 12, 2012 @ 4:51 pm

  4. If I’m not mistaken, there is a $2m buyout for the 2016 option, thus pushing the overall total to $29m.

    Comment by Brian — July 12, 2012 @ 4:52 pm

  5. 3yrs/29M would include the 2M buyout of the option year.

    (In essence the Jays option gives them a choice of 3yrs/29M or 4yrs/37M)

    Comment by Patrick — July 12, 2012 @ 4:55 pm

  6. Yeah but lopping those extra 2M in there is misleading, since the value of the option decreases the cost of that buyout.

    Comment by garik16 — July 12, 2012 @ 5:01 pm

  7. I don’t see a problem accumulating 2.4 war per season now that he will be getting full time

    Comment by AL Eastbound — July 12, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

  8. He’s already at 2.8 WAR for this year. On a $3.5 million salary, no less. Is there anyone who’s provided more bang for the buck this year so far off of a free agent contract?

    Which is not to say he’s guaranteed to even hit 2.5 WAR again in a season. No one knows if he will, but he’s certainly proved himself theoretically capable of doing so.

    Comment by ralph — July 12, 2012 @ 5:18 pm

  9. I think the title to this article is terrible. What if they were betting on his defense? You can’t know that.

    Comment by R M — July 12, 2012 @ 5:59 pm

  10. I was at a White Sox – Blue Jays game last week and a Jays fan in the row behind me said “somebody is going to give him a lot of money. I just hope it’s not the Jays.”

    Comment by MikeS — July 12, 2012 @ 6:53 pm


    Comment by Big Jgke — July 12, 2012 @ 6:55 pm

  12. The risk seems relatively low – it’s not as though the Jays are giving him a Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth-type contract.

    Comment by greenfrog — July 12, 2012 @ 8:02 pm

  13. So you can even ignore $/WAR if you want. Who could the Jays sign for 3/39 next offseason?

    Mike Napoli would’ve been nice, I guess, after that it gets pretty bad. If Toronto thinks they can contend, I don’t think you want to cross fingers and hope that this isn’t the year Berkman or Pena or Lee fall off a cliff.

    Comment by CJ — July 12, 2012 @ 9:27 pm

  14. 3/29, even, which makes it even better.

    Comment by CJ — July 12, 2012 @ 9:28 pm

  15. I wonder if Cole is ever willing to accept a 6 year deal with an opt-out clause at the end of 3 years.

    Or to keep in the spirit of Blue Jays’ policies, it will be a 3 year deal with 3 player options, but all options must be activated (or declined) at the same time.

    It might be interesting to see if Cole Hamels is interested in something like that. I mean, at the end of 3 years, Hamels will be 31 yrs-old. If he’s interested in re-entering the free agent market, he can decline the options; if he wants to stay for another 3 years, he can accept the options.

    What do you guys think?

    Comment by Brian Lin — July 12, 2012 @ 11:25 pm

  16. Someone is going to give Hamels someting like $150m/6yrs, and I guarantee it won’t be the Jays.

    Comment by jevant — July 13, 2012 @ 8:26 am

  17. Im a Jays fan. When we traded away Rolen and got E5 i was PISSED. Now Anthopoulis continues to amaze with his foresight in trades and aquisitions, as well as building one of the best farm systems in baseball. This team most likely will not make the playoffs this year but will be a real contender for many years to come, as they have rebuilt from the ground up for many years, and have much more money to spend (as opposed to teams like Tampa Bay) when crunch time comes and they need a big aquisition or two to push them over the top. Expect big things from this team

    Comment by brez224 — July 13, 2012 @ 8:30 am

  18. I am not a AA worshiper and I think the fawning is well overdone. However, big-time power hitters are perhaps as great a commodity as ace starters, especially in an era of pitcher dominance, which we are now four years into.

    AA said before last year that they thought Encarnacion “had another gear.” I respect the hell out of the guy because he has a hitting coach who is obviously really great at teaching hitters who have the ability to hit for power to do so, and he listens to him.

    You can look at the metrics you want, and they will show that Encarncion has the underlying skill to hit for big power. But what really matters is that AA trusts his hitting coach, and his hitting coach has a fabulous track record of teaching power hitting. That’s worth the contract. This is how it is supposed to be done.

    Comment by Paul — July 13, 2012 @ 8:44 am

  19. dont understand the Jays fan against this deal

    a) its not an overpay

    b) if it was an overpay, a three year contract is the perfect scenario to buy high anyway.

    and it’s not like he’s blocking any prospects at DH anyway.

    Comment by Oleg — July 13, 2012 @ 8:47 am

  20. Best GM in Toronto since Gillick.

    Comment by Brian — July 13, 2012 @ 8:51 am

  21. That Jays fan is not in the majority. EE was not particularly liked a couple of years ago but he is a fan favorite at the moment and I haven’t talked to another fan that doesn’t like this deal.

    The only topic that doesn’t have fan consensus yet is whether to call his home run trot the chicken wing or the T-rex.

    Comment by Garold — July 13, 2012 @ 9:31 am

  22. The Jays team policies doesn’t include player options, it’s team options that they love. I can’t think of any Jays player that was recently given a player option, because AA knows that’s a losing proposition.

    Hamels is not signing with the Jays.

    Comment by Garold — July 13, 2012 @ 9:33 am

  23. I agree with your sentiment completely! Although I must point out (hate to give JP any credit), but Ricciardi was the GM who pulled off the Rolen for Edwin/Zack Stewart/Roenicke trade.

    Comment by Mike — July 13, 2012 @ 10:56 am

  24. It was JPR who traded for EE… And plus, EE was a throw in/salary dump in that Rolen trade. The key pieces were Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart, who were supposed to be studs.

    Comment by Minor Leaguer — July 13, 2012 @ 11:03 am

  25. Garik16,

    This is standard practice for detailing the terms of contracts in a total years/total salary format.

    The buyout can just as easily be viewed as deferring $2 million and having an $8 million option for the 4th year. He’s getting the $2 regardless.

    Comment by TKDC — July 13, 2012 @ 11:49 am

  26. The Jays didn’t want Encarnacion, dumped him twice, and AA had nothing to do with acquiring him.

    They have got lucky and are seizing their good luck with this signing. it’s a solid move with medium risk which, I hope, will stop Jays fans from lusting after David Ortiz.

    Comment by J. B. Rainsberger — July 13, 2012 @ 12:06 pm

  27. Not exactly. Scott Rolen requested to be traded, and the Reds gave the best offer. Stewart was the Reds’ best pitching prospect at that time, but was not a stud. I can’t remember if Roenicke was suppose to be good or not …

    EE was definitely just toss into the trade, as the Blue Jays would need a 3B and the Reds no longer need EE.

    Comment by Brian — July 13, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

  28. GM AA allowed EE to be claimed by the A’s because the salary would be too high from arbitration. In arbitration, salaries almost never go down; they either stay the same or go up. At the time EE was making $4.75m (source cots baseball), so it was unproductive to keep EE at that price.

    However, a week later, the A’s released EE for some unknown reason, thus making him a free agent.

    GM AA took the opportunity to re-sign EE to a $2m/1yr deal + club option! Therefore you are 100% wrong to say, “AA had nothing to do with acquiring him”.

    Comment by Brian — July 13, 2012 @ 2:05 pm

  29. *gives sad look and then hangs head and slowly walks away with depressing music slowly playing*

    Comment by David Cooper — July 13, 2012 @ 3:45 pm

  30. I thought he was doing a Jim Abbot impression

    Comment by Wiener — July 13, 2012 @ 3:48 pm

  31. Get a chin and then we can talk. no chin = no power.

    Comment by Hardwood Paneling — July 13, 2012 @ 11:39 pm

  32. Thats a sad Charlie Brown

    Comment by ThatGuy — July 14, 2012 @ 3:17 am

  33. Lmao, I noticed that too.

    His arm just hangs limp as he is rounding the bases.

    Comment by Shaun Catron — July 16, 2012 @ 4:40 am

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