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  1. Alright, I will officially be disappointed if Simmons doesn’t make the list now that we’ve seen Wil Myers make it.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 5:04 pm

  2. Assuming you are talking about Adrelton Simmons, it’s pretty much consensus that Myers has a much higher ceiling, not to mention a power hitting skillset that is worth more on the trade market.

    Comment by Colin P — July 17, 2012 @ 5:17 pm

  3. Wil Myers? That opens up a can of worms. Profar has to have more trade value than a corner outfielder who’s 2+ years older and still in the minors, doesn’t he?

    Comment by dirtbag — July 17, 2012 @ 5:20 pm

  4. Trade value isn’t all about ceiliing. Myers is a much bigger gamble than Simmons whose defense guarantees he’ll be a highly valuable player for the foreseeable future, not to mention that Simmons already made the transition to the majors without missing a beat (including maintaining elite contact rates that portend well for his offensive development). Don’t sell Simmons short on his offensive upside either. The progress he’s made in the past two years since initially being drafted as a pitcher is truly amazing. It is pretty much unheard of for someone to develop this much in this short a period of time.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 5:24 pm

  5. Ladies and Gents meet Adrelton Simmons, the 2012 Trade Value version of Yunel Escobar.

    Comment by jpg — July 17, 2012 @ 5:28 pm

  6. To a certain extent, Simmons case reminds me of Pujols in that the prospect rankings never got a chance to catch up with his quick development after being drafted out of a JC. Now I’m not saying Simmons will ever compare to Pujols as a player, just that both are guys who were undersold by prospecters’ rankings.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 5:32 pm

  7. I think Simmons had a strong case to be on this list. I do not think Simmons has a strong case to be on this list ahead of Wil Myers.

    Comment by byron — July 17, 2012 @ 5:33 pm

  8. Still in the minors, unlike Profar, who’s been tearing up the major leagues all year?

    Comment by byron — July 17, 2012 @ 5:34 pm

  9. Not really fair. Escobar was never considered the consensus best defensive SS in baseball, and Simmons is showing better contact rates at 22 than Escobar has ever shown in his entire career.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 5:35 pm

  10. Dave said earlier Profar is on the list.

    Comment by AJS — July 17, 2012 @ 5:35 pm

  11. Well Profar is the #1 rated prospect in baseball, while Myers comes in the the #2-#4 range.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 5:37 pm

  12. To be clear: I was just poking fun at dirtbag’s argument. I don’t think Myers is misplaced, nor object to Profar being higher. I don’t see how having a consensus top 5 prospect “opens up a can of worms.”

    Comment by byron — July 17, 2012 @ 5:55 pm

  13. Why do you have Martin Prado written backwards as your handle?

    Comment by Jason — July 17, 2012 @ 5:58 pm

  14. Is it? I wouldn’t know anything about that.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 6:00 pm

  15. Hahaha, jpg just before I got to your comment I was thinking exactly the same thing…

    Comment by kid — July 17, 2012 @ 6:04 pm

  16. Martin if you don’t remember last 2011’s TV comments, they included an all out love-affair with both Yunel Escobar’s contract and the Jays’ AA. Jpg isn’t directly comparing the two players, but they do both play SS and they do both have good gloves… plenty of basis for the analogy.

    Comment by kid — July 17, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  17. People sometimes confuse prospect value with actual baseball value. As another post said, solid D goes along way. And most GMs value SS and C the most because those are the most demanding defensive positions. Myers may be able to hit like the dickens but he’s a converted catcher in search of a position which he can adequately play in the major leagues. A guy like Simmons, who’s already proven he can play elite D at an elite position in the Show and flash a little pop while striking out infrequently, has tremendous value in trades.

    The Braves have a knack for the SS position. Remember, they were the morons who gave up Elvis Andrus (along with Neftali and Harrison) for a futile Mark Teixeira rental.

    Simmons is special. He’s a product of Curacao, where all you do is hang out on the beach and play baseball. As a Braves fan I’ve gotten to see him play a bit, and he has a nose for the big hit/RBI chance which, coupled with one of the best gloves already in the game, makes him pretty exciting. He may not be a highly rated prospect like Myers, but with his athletic build and advanced acumen at just 22, he could end up being more valuable.

    Comment by Sebastian — July 17, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  18. “who’s 2+ years older and still in the minors”

    If Profar is still in the minors in 2+ years and is still on this list, then yeah.

    Comment by dirtbag — July 17, 2012 @ 6:10 pm

  19. Why do you have Nosaj written backward as your handle?

    Comment by Carson — July 17, 2012 @ 6:10 pm

  20. Basically because they play the same position then? Because no one puts Escobar on Simmons level as a defender, he’s never posted contact rates as good, at this age he was still in A ball, and he had only 4 years of team control left compared to 6. If Yunel is borderline then Simmons seem like a pretty obvious no doubt selection.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 6:23 pm

  21. Wow, I didn’t think Yuniesky Betancourt would make it higher than #36, but I guess I’m wrong!

    Comment by CLogdorp — July 17, 2012 @ 6:23 pm

  22. I’m gonna get skewered for this, but given the fact that run prevention is flourishing and run production is dwindling, are we still right to assume that organizations value these defense-first/offense-second guys as highly as they once did?

    Comment by kid — July 17, 2012 @ 6:33 pm

  23. Can’t wait to see where Trout lands on this list.

    Comment by BJ — July 17, 2012 @ 6:43 pm

  24. There’s no way that Alex Gordon is a 20 run defender and unless you believe that’s the case he really doesn’t belong on this list. Even if he’s a true +10 defender he doesn’t belong on this list.

    Your argument for keeping Zobrist so low on the list was because he does things other GMs don’t value as highly – defence and base running. In fact, I’ll just quote what you said on Zobrist:

    ” As a trade commodity, however, Zobrist is slightly less valuable, owing to the fact that his production comes from areas that tend to have less value in the open market: defense, baserunning, and plate discipline.”

    Pretty much sums up Gordon, minus the base running. What skill does Alex Gordon have that other GMs would covet? It certainly isn’t his power (137 ISO) or his bat. A 117 wRC+ isn’t bad, but compared to other LF’s it’s not very impressive.

    For that matter, would anybody give up more for Alex Gordon than they would for any player mentioned in the 40-50 bracket? Outside of Alcides Escobar I can’t think of any player listed to this point who would have less trade value than Gordon.

    Comment by Mark — July 17, 2012 @ 6:55 pm

  25. #1? The production he’s been putting up as a 20 year old rookie destroys everything we understand about baseball. The kid is special. He is truly, truly special.

    Comment by Marc — July 17, 2012 @ 7:01 pm

  26. I think the Alex Gordon piece was totally botched. Even though you are correct that he’s the same offensive player he was before 2011 I think it’s basically all related to having a decent season against LHP last year and his inability to his lefties. He’s always had trouble with lefties and he just had that one season where he didn’t and it made him look much better than he is. Until he can hit LHP with any consistency he’ll be a very good fielding LFer with good offense against RHP but pretty awful against LHP.

    Comment by Jonathan — July 17, 2012 @ 7:10 pm

  27. I’m going to throw this out there since I doubt he’s on the list due to contract – but I highly doubt that the Tigers would trade Miguel Cabrera for Johnny Cueto, or Alcides Escobar for that matter.

    Comment by Michael Scarn — July 17, 2012 @ 7:46 pm

  28. A rookie with MVP-like numbers…I’m going out on a limb and guessing that he’ll be #1 (Harper, Strasburg, McCutchen, Stanton or Profar my prediction for the top 5).

    Comment by KCDaveInLA — July 17, 2012 @ 9:06 pm

  29. Yeah – Gordon right now has the 2nd highest UZR in all of baseball. It’s a huge impact on his WAR value, he’s not actually playing like a 5 win player like Dave casually states.

    A non-power OF with 3 more years at 11 mil a season is nice to have, but not one of the biggest trade chips in the game.

    Comment by todmod — July 17, 2012 @ 9:33 pm

  30. Cabrera is in he is 29 and under team control until 2016 (33 years old season)

    He is locked for his prime and no more.
    Yes he´ll earn more than 20 million, but having a superstar locked for his next four “still in his prime” season is great, generally you have to throw a cuple of 20 millon years that woný be worth that to have an elit hitter, is not the case

    Comment by Salo — July 17, 2012 @ 9:41 pm

  31. They might. Not now they wouldn’t because it would hurt their playoff chances. Lowering payroll wouldn’t help them at all. However, in the off season, it would free up a lot of money which they could then use to sign a FA 3B. You can put it like this, Miguel Cabrera at FMV or David Wright (or some other 3B who’ll probably get around $100+ million) at FMV + Escobar or Cueto at the lower than FMV rates.

    Comment by HerseyChris — July 17, 2012 @ 9:47 pm

  32. Nose for the “big hit/RBI chance.” meh, that’s all fairytale stuff.

    Comment by Taylor06 — July 17, 2012 @ 9:59 pm

  33. No way Longoria isn’t in the top 5, even after the injuries.

    Comment by ThePartyBird — July 17, 2012 @ 10:47 pm

  34. Harper, Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gonzalez should make the list, but I’m wondering about Ian Desmond. I would have put him in before now, so he may not be on the list, but as a young all-star short stop with power, I feel like he has a fair amount of value. I would think that’s it for the Nationals.

    Comment by 23553 — July 17, 2012 @ 10:57 pm

  35. If the Braves have a knack for the shortstop position…
    What do the Mariners have?
    Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez. And Omar Vizquel for Felix Fermin and Reggie Jefferson

    Comment by soccrtiger13 — July 17, 2012 @ 11:13 pm

  36. I would be shocked if Profar was nearly that high. I don’t think anyone considers him to be at the same level as a prospect as guys like Harper and Trout last year, but those guys still only came in at 20 and 21 and Dave specifically mentioned giving more weight to proven, elite production this year then he has in the past. I think a guy like Braun is guaranteed to be ranked ahead of him.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 11:38 pm

  37. Oh, “that’s it”? Your favorite team only gets 5 players in the top 35?

    Comment by Matty Brown — July 17, 2012 @ 11:41 pm

  38. I’m not so sure about Zimmerman. He hasn’t been that good in well over a year now and he’s guaranteed 104 MM over the next 7 years. I think a lot of teams would be scared off by those numbers considering his drop in production.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 17, 2012 @ 11:42 pm

  39. Profar in top-5 is bat shit crazy. I’d be shocked if his name doesn’t come tomorrow, most likely in the first post.

    Also, I’d like to throw out that I’m a Braves fan that loves Simmons but does not think he will or should be on this list. The Pujols semi-comp is meaningless. If Simmons magically develops way more, that’s great; but right now he is a decent prospect who had a great 40 days in the bigs. Does he have more trade value than Manny Machado? Maybe, but neither makes this list.

    Comment by TKDC — July 18, 2012 @ 12:38 am

  40. You sure you dont want to add Zimmermann, Espinosa, and perhaps Ramos to this list of top 35 trade pieces. I’m pretty sure they all had good half seasons at one point too.

    Comment by TKDC — July 18, 2012 @ 12:48 am

  41. It’s Andrelton, guys.

    And I agree he’s not a top 50 value at this point, given the strong possibility that his bat will falter. If he’s able to keep up the contact rates and flash consistent doubles power, he should easily make next year’s list.

    Comment by Anon21 — July 18, 2012 @ 1:53 am

  42. Goodness, people seem to lose all perspective when they look at exciting prospects. Profar, without a single major league plate appearance, is a top 5 trade value in all of MLB? Listen to yourself, dude.

    Comment by Anon21 — July 18, 2012 @ 1:56 am

  43. Why do you think Gio Gonzalez should make the list? I feel like if he makes it at all, he’s below 35. As TKDC says–good half season. Round it up to great if you want. Doesn’t change the fact that prior to this year he’s been a league average pitcher and that his walk rate remains a concern.

    Comment by Anon21 — July 18, 2012 @ 2:01 am

  44. Anyone think Michael Pineda will be top 35?

    Nod Repard

    Comment by Don Draper — July 18, 2012 @ 2:30 am

  45. I like that your name backwards almost says “Not Retard”, as if you’re trying to remind us.

    1 is Trout.
    2 is Harper.
    3 is a huge gap to anyone and everyone else.
    My other top tenners… Longoria still, Cutch, and six other position players. I’d love to have great pitchers, but if I’m trading, I’m not trading my stellar position players for them.

    Comment by tmorgan1970 — July 18, 2012 @ 4:29 am


    Comment by Craig Kimbrel — July 18, 2012 @ 9:01 am

  47. What reason is there to believe there is a strong possibility his bat will falter? All he’s done since coming out of junior college ~2 years ago is hit despite all the questions that were initially raised about his bat. He posted elite contact rates in the minors and that has carried over to the majors as well (and he’s already at the point where his contact rates should be relatively stabilized based on sample size). Other than the scouting reports from the time he was drafted, there is absolutely no reason to think his bat will falter.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 18, 2012 @ 9:09 am

  48. TKDC,

    I’m not sure why you think the Pujols comp is meaningless. Both are guys that were severely underrated as prospects because they didn’t spend enough time in the minors to completely overcome their scouting reports from the time they were drafted. I honestly don’t know how you can say he doesn’t deserve a spot in the top 50 when a guy like Alcides Escobar has already made the list. Simmons is younger, has an extra year of team control, doesn’t have a track record of struggling to hit at the MLB level, and is considered a significantly better defender. Unless you think Simmons is doomed to regress to a wRC+ of around 85 long term, I just don’t see a case for leaving him off.

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 18, 2012 @ 9:17 am

  49. I don’t think you understand the meaning of league average.

    Comment by Will — July 18, 2012 @ 9:30 am

  50. He was referring to Jordan ZimmermaNN not Ryan Zimmerman.

    Comment by Will — July 18, 2012 @ 9:34 am

  51. I see…I believe that makes it even worse then

    Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 18, 2012 @ 9:46 am

  52. I’d be shocked if Profar was in the top 20. Harper/Trout were ranked 20 and 21 last year, and they were better prospects than Profar.

    Comment by BX — July 18, 2012 @ 9:47 am

  53. Anyone think if Gordon went to a new team, they might try to stick him back at 3B? Plenty could use help there.

    Comment by saskatunes — July 18, 2012 @ 10:10 am

  54. What’s consecutive seasons of 3.2 fWAR and 3.5 fWAR to you? Maybe very slightly above league average? There is a margin of error to all this stuff; what we do know is that he was no All Star. Obviously, this year’s campaign is blowing away his previous work, and it’s new data that changes your evaluation. Changes it enough to put him in the top 35 trade values in baseball? I don’t think so.

    Comment by Anon21 — July 18, 2012 @ 12:20 pm

  55. LOL at league average prior to this year. He’s been WELL above average for 2.5 years now despite the walk issue which is starting to show some improvement this year.

    Comment by Paul Sporer — July 18, 2012 @ 12:24 pm

  56. it’s funny, until the last paragraph I had NO idea you were a Braves fan…

    Comment by batpig — July 18, 2012 @ 12:33 pm

  57. No, his nose is huge. It can do those things.

    Comment by Choo — July 18, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

  58. The Pujols comp is meaningless in regard to trade value. Yes, a guy with a very short, great track record maybe has a higher (mostly unknown) ceiling than a guy that has already shown what he is, but he also has a lower floor. I guess it is hard for me to believe that a guy who started the season as a fringe-top-100 prospect could be a top-50 trade piece in baseball by mid season, even with an amazing 40-day debut.

    Comment by TKDC — July 18, 2012 @ 3:47 pm

  59. Gordon and Zobrist … both probably too highly rated because of defense. Yes it’s important. No I don’t think it’s that highly valued.

    Comment by Joncarlos — July 18, 2012 @ 4:48 pm

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