FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Expectations should have not been so high for Ellsbury, just look at his BABIP for 2007, .388. With a line drive rate of 18.8, he was a healthy 80 points more lucky than the next guy. Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and say that BABIP can be controlled to some extent by speed, which he has plenty of, he was still some 60-70 points over his head. Take those numbers off his average and he becomes a much more pedestrian sub-300 hitter.

    What is odd is that he has been a little unlucky lately, 21.7% LD with only a .300 BABIP. His xBABIP should be around 330-340.

    I guess what goes around comes around.

    Comment by Scappy — August 6, 2008 @ 3:28 pm

  2. On the other hand, Ellis continues his march to the bargain bin. Asides from a high number of popups, theres nothing to suggest that Ellis deserves his .250 BABIP. His BB% is acually the second highest of his career, and his BB/K is a career high, with a 19.7 LD% and healthy contact rates, hes been EXTREMELY unlucky.

    This guy could be the bargain of the ’08/’09 offseason.

    Comment by taro — August 6, 2008 @ 10:37 pm

  3. It might just be me, but I find the Bill James projection for Ryan Braun just comical. He not only doesn’t regress him AT ALL to the mean, he thought he’d be better this year than last!

    .326/.383/.660 with 46 homers, 42 doubles was his BIS-projected line.

    Going into the 2007 season, James projected Kevin Kouzmanoff to have a .317/.378/.546 line with 121 rbi. That would have made him the 5th best third baseman in all of baseball in 2007, behind only A-Rod, Chipper, Miguel Cabrera, and David Wright.

    Comment by dan — August 7, 2008 @ 12:30 pm

  4. Ryan Ludwick says hi with a .354/.430/.747 line.

    Comment by mikedallas23 — August 7, 2008 @ 12:35 pm

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