Minor quibble… I think… but isn’t an order of magnitude equal to 10x? How can Cutch be worth several magnitudes more than what his contract pays him? I can see him being worth, perhaps, 2x or 3x more than his contract, but not 20x or 30x.
Out of curiosity since i have my own opinion, what’s your take on Heyward vs Stanton? I know Stanton probably has the higher value cause of his contract lasting longer, but assuming that was equal would you still rate him higher?
As an Angels fan, it’s great to finally see a highly touted position prospect actually live up to, and even surpass the hype. And with what Trumbo is accomplishing (although perhaps he’ll be coming back to Earth soon), it is really exciting to see.
RIP McPherson, Kotchman, Mathis, Wood, Kendrick, etc.
Absolutely, unless he’s fully capable of converting to the rotation and the Reds just haven’t bothered to try. Dude pitches maybe 60-70 innings a year. He just is not as valuable as even an average regular.
Really? He’s been worth 2.3 WAR in just 45 innings so far this season. Even as a reliever, that’s about on par with what the three guys I just listed are doing. That’s about twice as valuable as your average regular over a full season.
And FWIW, the Reds have said numerous times that his future is in the rotation. He was pressed into bullpen duty this season because of the injuries to Ryan Madson, Nick Masset, and Billy Bray.
I know this list is not one of who is the most valuable player, but rather an attempt to guess who would get the most in a trade, but I can’t imagine what team would rather trade for Harper than McCutchen. He is a proven player that is already developed and he is damn cheap compared to what he’s worth.
Will Harper take the leap forward next year? Maybe, but right now we’re seeing signs that this year is at least a bit flukey. He was not as good in short stints in AA and AAA as he has been in the Majors, and using a guy like Griffey, he could be 2-3 years away from really being an elite player (which is not to take anything away from him. If he is elite next year, there is no way he doesn’t make at least $63 million through arbitration because he will easily make Super-2 status and get 4 bites.
He’s not as valuable as an average regular? Isn’t an average regular worth roughly 2 WAR over the course of an entire season? I think getting over 2 WAR in less than 50 IP is significantly more valuable than that. I honestly think the value of shutdown relievers gets underrated around here, though I agree that it’s tough to rationalize them making the top 50.
Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 23, 2012 @ 12:09 pm
Option is voided if he is traded IIRC.
Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 23, 2012 @ 12:10 pm
I was wondering if a “magnitude” is different than an “order of magnitude”. I think it maybe just another mathematical term that gets its meaning distorted when thrown into everyday speech. It’s kind of like a player being “infinitely better” than another player. I’d prefer to hear either “significantly better” or “non-negligibly better”, but I think writers need their hyperbole so it’s not going to happen.
“When I was polling baseball people for their opinions on Harper versus Trout, it came down mostly on Harper’s side. But then, over the last two weeks, I’ve had a half dozen people send me notes saying that they’ve changed their minds.”
I’ve always been a Trout-over-Harper guy myself, but making decisions on the basis of two weeks’ worth of performance seems pretty silly. And in fact, the extra year of team control for Harper is tipping me to the other side.
I’d like to point out that Harper’s latest “struggles” are more of a slump than anything else. He’s mostly maintained his BB% (9%-10%) and K% rate (18%-20%) from just about every minor league stop he’s had, and he’s still got a really healthy 23% LD rate (including 27% in July) which shows that he’s still hitting the ball hard. He’ll be just fine.
Don’t see how it’s possible to be rational right now regarding Trout. Yes, the season he’s having is amazing, but what is his true talent level? Current wOBA is .446. Does anybody believe he’s as true-talent .400+ wOBA player? I don’t, especially considering that he hit just 29 HR in 351 games before this season. I’d still rather have Harper.
I disagree that he has to show success as a SP before he can show up on this list…
I’m pretty sure Bundy hasn’t shown success as a SP, and Profar hasn’t shown success as a SS yet, but they still make the list. Future potential is a major aspect of this list, so unless you are saying the current thought is he will not be successful as a SP and has peaked already then he should not be discredited for being a reliever.
Even as reliever he has the 24th best WAR (2.3) of any pitcher in the majors (as of 7/23), and is the only player below 98 IP (45.2) on the top 30, not even Kimbrel. Just looking at pitchers (can’t really compare pitchers WAR to hitters as they don’t play every day) #49 Yovani Gallardo (1.6), #24 Matt Moore (1.1), #19 Madison Bumgarner (2.1), and Bundy as noted earlier all have been less valuable to their team this season.
I am not arguing that Chapman should be on the list, I don’t know enough about him or follow the Reds, and I’m not as knowledgeable as those making this list to argue 50 vs. 51 etc. All I am saying is I don’t think the fact that Chapman is a RP, or is not offering the inferred SP values is enough to prohibit him from this list. If RP’s can’t be on the list since they aren’t as valuable as SP’s, then this logic would probably say pitchers can’t make this list at all, or at least very rarely (38 of the top 50 WAR belong to hitters, in fact all of the top 8 and 13 of top 15 are hitters)…
4. (1) Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2016 for $38 million.
For me, the Evan Longoria contract still rules. That has to be the greatest contract signed by management. Yes, I know he’s been injured and possible losing his 26 yr, but the price paid for his 8 years is simply incredible. All these guys, Harper, Trout, Stanton will make more money because of Super-2 status.
I’m with you. McCutchen > Harper is fairly easy to me, especially once you consider that Boras is Harper’s agent. Harper may end up better, but he will only be a discount for a couple years. McCutchen is elite right now, and he’s cheap as dirt for a long time.
Comment by GoToWarMissAgnes — July 23, 2012 @ 12:55 pm
I think that Harper being 6 years younger has something to do with it.
Comment by Tony Reagins — July 23, 2012 @ 12:57 pm
Trout is amazing. Great. Superb. And he’s on pace to have a crazy good season.
And it would still only be what Ruth AVERAGED.
Man, the Babe was incredible.
Comment by MrKnowNothing — July 23, 2012 @ 1:01 pm
Unless PED’s is the ‘more’ in “More than just the uniforms and race look similar to me”, I don’t think using similarities between McCutchen and Bonds’ age 22(21)-25(24) power numbers is very useful for projecting McCutchen’s power in the future…
By my count, Texas, San Francisco, Kansas City and Tampa Bay each have 4 players on the list, Washington, Anaheim, Detroit, Baltimore and Cincy have 3, Milwaukee, Toronto, Dodgers and Colorado have 2, Yankees, Miami, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Seattle, Cleveland, Arizona, Boston, White Sox, St. Louis and the Cubs have 1. Mets, Philadelphia, Houston, San Diego and Minnesota have none.
McCutchen is a 5-6 WAR player who is benefiting greatly from some results that are unlikely to be sustained. His BB% is down, his current HR/FB % is more than double his career average, his GB% is up, and yet his BABIP is currently .417 (with a .327 career-to-date BABIP). He is a fantastic player. One of the very best in the game. But this is his age-26 season. It is highly likely that this is the best of Andrew McCutchen that we will ever see.
Bryce Harper has inner-circle HOF talent. It is very rare for a teenager to be an average MLB hitter. Harper’s current wRC+ is 114. When McCutchen was 19, he posted a wRC+ of 100. In AA-ball.
Harper is an elite power prospect. He is also striking out a lot less than scouts and projection systems had anticipated. He is not benefitting from smoke and mirrors (.315 BABIP, 10.4% HR/FB). These things portend very well for his future performance. Is he a guaranteed 6-win player? Not by any means. But there is also a much greater chance of Harper developing into a true-talent 7- or 8-win player. And it is also highly likely that he’ll develop into a player with a pretty high floor. The hit tool is there. The patience and the power are there. He has even played about half of his innings in CF and the defensive currently rate him as about average.
Harper’s career trajectory is nearly unprecedented. If he ends up being a better player than Trout, it will almost certainly be because of his power. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if he hit 35 HRs as a 20-year old next year. By the time he’s 21 or 22, we could be talking about a guy hitting like 2012 Ryan Braun (with maybe less contact /more power) and playing centerfield.
I (and probably every GM) would absolutely trade McCutchen in exchange for Harper’s potential.
Comment by rogue_actuary — July 23, 2012 @ 1:18 pm
That only means you get McCutcheon during his prime and Harper during his pre-prime.
Mike Trout was a teenager fresh out of high school during 331 of those games. How many teenagers display their full power potential? That usually takes some time. He was also playing against much older and much more experienced competition. He more than held his own. He was amazing. Please forgive him for not displaying King Kong-esque power in the minor leagues as a teenager fresh out of high school.
From his time in High-A to Double-A, your boy Harper has hit just 4 home runs in 58 games. His numbers were also nothing to write home about. But nobody is holding that against him because most people are smart enough to realize that he is, like Trout was less than a year ago, a teenager and that it may take a little time before his massive potential starts to translate in games.
maybe im just being a dick, but i dont get this quesiton. this list is in front of you. every entry is linked to. just freaking click and look.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — July 23, 2012 @ 1:29 pm
If you’re going to go by a couple weeks’ performance then it looks like Cespedes is a pretty big omission. 299/358/530 with a 145 WRC+ with 3.5 years of control, owed about 30mil. That’s better and cheaper than Justin Upton, who ranks #25 with the same amount of team control.
Maybe Cespedes isn’t quite as good as he’s looked this month, but right now he looks like a miss.
I would imagine if you’re trying to determine which player will be more valuable going forward, you’d choose the one with a longer history of success. I agree that there’s a decent chance that Cespedes continues to be really good, and if so I imagine he’s on the list next year.
If I’m trying to determine, though, whether I’d trade for Cespedes or Upton, I’d have more confidence with Upton maintaining his success, just because he’s demonstrated it over a longer period of time.
Heyward and Stanton are essentially the same age, with Heyward only 3 months older. I think the reason that Stanton is hyped, or consistently ranked higher over Heyward is Stanton’s power ceiling is thought to be so much higher than Heyward’s power ceiling.
Look at their ISOs since their debuts in 2010:
Although both players have had their share of injuries at least Stanton already has a 30 HR season on his resume (34 HR in 2011). As far as their plate discipline skills, both players walk over 10% and strike out over 20%. I thought Heyward would be more of a 15% to 18% K type of guy but he has been trending in the wrong direction. I do think he will be a more elite walk guy. Overall I think if you want to get into defensive or baserunning values then Heyward picks up more value, but the reason for why Heyward gets ranked below Stanton simply comes down to how they are viewed as power hitters. Stanton’s power is just seen to be on another level than Heyward’s power is and their plate discipline numbers are pretty similar.
Trout currently is sporting a .413 BABIP and yeah maybe his 18.3% HR/FB rate is sustainable in the long-term, but just because he was a teenager a year ago doesn’t mean his power is for real right now.
God forbid someone doubt whether a half-season’s worth of data is enough to project Trout being a true .400+ wOBA player. Especially considering that only 10 players ended last year with an wOBA above .400 and ZiPS projects only three players to hit that for the duration of the season. But yes, 74 games is enough to say definitively that anyone questioning Trout’s place amongst these players is clueless.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — July 23, 2012 @ 1:53 pm
You do realize that Stanton is a whopping 90 days younger than Heyward, right? There are definitely reasons one would take Stanton over Heyward, but I think it’s a little closer than some on here are making it out to be. Age just isn’t one of those reasons.
For the duration of their time under team control, they’ll probably be worth about the same amount. Stanton will be a bit better hitter and Heyward will be a bit better defender and baserunner. Pick your poison. I don’t think you can go wrong with either.
Check out the WAR leaderboard. Just about everyone is sporting an out-of-this-world BABIP, not just Trout. Votto is at .400. McCutchen is at .417. Cabrera is at .390. Wright is at .385. Austin Jackson is at .400. Ruiz is at .360. Bourn is over .370. Trout is just beating them all because of his incredible skillset.
but remember, this is just the beginning, he is only 20!
Comment by voice of reason — July 23, 2012 @ 2:00 pm
Comment by voice of reason — July 23, 2012 @ 2:01 pm
If 27/28 is considered average prime, I don’t know why you’d rather have 19-25 than 25-31. I think people are subconsciously looking at more than what you actually get with Harper. He’s a FA after his age 25 season.
Of course the best case scenario for Harper is that he is 2011 Ryan Braun by next season, but that is not who he is now. And if he does reach his potential quickly, he is definitely going to be making 20 million or thereabouts by his third or fourth trip through arbitration. He’s the exact kind of player that is rewarded in arbitration.
The only way Harper’s salary through 2018 is less than McCutchen is if he is not nearly the player everyone seems to believe he is certain to be.
That 442 foot opposite field home run was just one of those things, I guess. The multiple 440+ foot shots and all those no-doubters that would’ve cleared any ballpark were just doubters, perhaps. Maybe they were holograms and Trout doesn’t even exist?
Better question, “Where’s Jordan Zimmermann?” Samardzija only has three years of team control left and is yet to produce anything substantial. Zimm’nn will get Cy Young votes this year and could even win the thing if he keeps pitching this way. So far this year, he’s been as good or maybe even better than Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez and he just turned 26 and has another four years of team control. In a little over a year’s worth of starts (2011 & 2012) he’s been worth over 7 WAR. To me he’s the next Matt Cain, totally under-appreciated until he isn’t.
I agree that Harper has more value than McCutchen due to age. However I disagree with you that McCutchen will be unable to sustain anything other than his absurdly high batting average. Watching his at bats you can also see that the stance adjustment has had a huge impact on his ability to drive the baseball. It’s a simple case of a supreme athlete making an adjustment that takes his game up a notch. When you’re as locked in at the plate as he is it doesn’t make much sense to take a base when you have the confidence and ability to change the game with a swing of the bat.
On a seperate note, a question for Dave or any other staff member. The defensive metrics seem to really hate McCutchen’s defensive value. Short of Granderson UZR has him as the worst center fielder in baseball. The main reason for this seems to be his range value. So my question is this: Is it possible that he is under orders to not lay out for the baseball or otherwise exert himself in a manner that could cause injury in the field? I’ve watched nearly every game and to be honest, ever since the sprained wrist he’s suffered I don’t think he’s really given it a 100% in the outfield. Given his nature and energy level it just doesn’t make sense.
LOL. We’re going to be seeing Trout-vs-Harper squabbles for the next 20 years. As an Angels fan I’m glad we have Trout, but I wouldn’t be unhappy with Harper either. Both of them are unreal talents.
Aside from being a homer, the reason that we have to rate Trout higher than Harper is that Trout has actually actualized his potential already; we just don’t know how good Harper will be, or when he’ll come close to his potential. I think he’ll be great, probably just as good as Trout and maybe better (certainly more power and a better arm), but it also might take him longer to get there. My guess is that he’s very good next year but doesn’t put it all together until 2014.
Now the scary thing about Trout, and why I think he’s actually this good, is that he keeps getting better every month. Check out his triple-slash lines month-by-month:
April (3 games): .091/.167/.182
May (27 games): .324/.385/.556
June (26 games): .372/.419/.531
July (18 games): 426/.481/.868
Awhile back, I think late May or early June, he had a bit of a slum and went 2-19 over four or five games, and then he adjusted. I also saw a stat in which his batting average increases each time he sees a pitcher; in other words, he takes note of the pitcher’s arsenal and makes adjustments. This kid is the frickin’ Natural – he gets baseball, has every conceivable tool (except a strong arm) and for all of these reasons and more I think he can sustain his current level, with perhaps minor ups and downs.
We also have to remember that this isn’t a 25-year old (like McCutchen) breaking through and having an ungodly season after years of development. This is a 20-year old rookie. It is hard to imagine someone improving upon .357/.412/.603, but if anyone can it is Trout.
My hope is that in a few years we get to see Bryce Harper hit 74 HR and Trout hit .400 in the same year. I know, it is highly unlikely, but it is possible. Why not?
No sarcasm. The only guys younger than Milone who are ahead of him in ERA are Jarrod Parker and Chris Sale, He is one of the tops in ERA and IP. He is also 8th in the league in WHIP. Not many rookies are doing what he is doing
I will say that I believe that if all 30 MLB GMs were asked, “Who would you rather have, Stephen Strasburg or Evan Longoria?,” all 30 of them would answer, “Strasburg,” including Tampa Bay. I believe that, if Strasburg and Longoria were both simultaneously made available, Tampa Bay would immediately offer Longoria and then some, and the other 28 teams would make stronger offers for Strasburg than they would for Longoria. Which suggests that Strasburg should be higher on the list than Longoria.
Yeah, we keep waiting for Trout to regress a little bit from his hot start but it doesn’t ever happen. Nevertheless, I’ll take the under, when betting on whether he will improve upon his July #’s in August.
so you think black and latino pitchers would have knocked ruth down to.. what level, exactly? just how good do you think the negro leagues were? do you really believe that paige threw 50 different pitches from 50-110 mph?
Chapman should absolutely be on the list. Again you have to judge it on the criteria. If this were a list of, say the top 50 players in the sport or the 50 Most Valuable, then no he shouldn’t be on the list. For a trade value list like this? Absolutely. The Reds would get a massive haul for this guy. A bigger haul than at least a half dozen of the guys listed.
Zimmermann is a Super 2 who had his first year of arbitration this year, so he only has another 3 years of team control left, and assuming he performs well they won’t even come at that much of a discount. He’s also a pitcher that has already had a major injury and is seriously outpitching his peripherals right now, two more factors that work against him in this sort of thing. I can see a case for him on the back end of the list, but he’s not a major omission.
we’re not grading the contracts, though. we’re grading trade value. half of those years are over.
in year 2016, the contract will still have been awesome, but longo will be a free agent the next year.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — July 23, 2012 @ 4:37 pm
Ohhhh we are playing the “diluted talent pool” card. My question to you is, if it was so easy, why was Ruth the only one taking advantage?? You’d figure maybe 1, or 2 other players could sniff his level? Not even.
Also remember that Ruth played against less teams total, the league was smaller, so the talent pool wasn’t spread out as much. The athlete’s on average may have been worse then comparatively with training nowadays being better and a much higher population to poll from, but I do think the smaller league thing should be noted. I’m pretty sure there were eight teams in each league when Ruth played.
Well, remember that Upton in the past 3 years, (if you include this year), has one average season, one amazing season, and an average season this year. Cespedes hasn’t shown as much, but Upton has clearly shown downside at points in his career over extended periods, plus his home road splits are horrendously huge.
That is correct. He has one current “weakness”, a slightly above average strikeout rate. That’s the kind of thing that frequently (but not always) improves as a player gets big league experience. He currently has blazing speed, and while he may slow down fairly quickly, the experience factor will likely compensate. He’s smart, he works hard, he has every hitting tool, and he’s never struggled for long at any level. He’s an elite talent with elite production this year. There’s always a chance he’s not THIS good, but I think he’s at least close — .400 OBA close.
Comment by TheYellowSlant — July 23, 2012 @ 6:21 pm
You should also take into consideration that Ruth’s contemporaries, while mostly ‘white”, they were not playing baseball, basketball, soccer, or tennis professionally. Basically, if you were a really good American athlete back then, you played baseball, boxed or golfed.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 23, 2012 @ 6:24 pm
Haha… The guy is a freak. People also tend to forget that he came from NJ and didn’t play baseball year round like Harper was able to.
Usually when a kid hits the majors at 19, the expectation is he is going to continue to add strength as he matures. Bryce Harper isn’t your typical 19 year old. He looks like a kid who’s always been more physically mature than kids in his age group (he has a full beard at 19, that’s not common). There’s a good chance, to my totally unprofessional eye, that he’s got a bit of Karim Garcia on him – the barrel chested 19 YO stud prospect for the Dodgers 15 years ago. His body just didn’t have a lot of room to grow, and so the “blind” age projections people wanted to apply to him, just didn’t work out very well. Harper may not get much better than he is today.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 23, 2012 @ 6:34 pm
Hasn’t been very good as a hitter or fielder since 2010 and he’s guaranteed $122 MM through 2019 if traded.
You realize Karim Garcia only cracked the top 10 prospect list once (after his age 19 season) in his relatively long minor league career. Harper has been considered the 1A or 1B prospect in baseball since the day he was drafted. In no way are the two guys similar.
Also, you could make a similar argument about Trout that you are trying to make about Harper. Trout is pretty much filled out at this point too and doesn’t have a whole lot of room to grow. The main point is that those projections on increased production aren’t entirely based on adding strength. Harper already has all the strength he needs to be a 50 HR hitter. He just needs to learn how to translate his ridiculous raw power to in-game power. For a guy with roughly 1000 professional PA, regardless of age, what he’s doing is incredibly impressive.
There are many HOFers that peaked very young. Arod immediately comes to mind as we saw some other peaks with steriods but nothing nearly as complete of a year.
” I also saw a stat in which his batting average increases each time he sees a pitcher; in other words, he takes note of the pitcher’s arsenal and makes adjustments.”
This is absolute confirmation bias.
Mike Trout is playing amazing right now, no doubt. Lets see where he sits in September.
Comment by Voice O'Reason — July 23, 2012 @ 7:00 pm
But we see Trout doing it, and we’re still hoping that Harper does, that’s the difference.
The hypothesis is that Harper has always been more physically mature than his competition, until say he hit A-Ball, where a .372 BABIP contributed to a .436 WBA. Since then he hasn’t cracked a .350 WBA or a .170 ISO, numbers Trout has sailed past while leading the league in stolen basis and Gold Glove catches.
Trout is top-end physical talent, with top-end production. Harper is still just top-end physical talent.
Keep in mind that Harper probably has about an 800 amateur advantage in at-bats too.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 23, 2012 @ 7:11 pm
You’re comparing 20 year old Trout to 19 year old Harper. As for their minor league numbers, Trout just wasn’t pushed through the minors as aggressively as Harper was. Trout didn’t get promoted to AA until he was 19, while Harper was playing their at 18. Trout didn’t get promoted to AAA until he was 20, while Harper was there at 19. If Trout hadn’t posted much better numbers when he was playing at every level at an older age, it would be a pretty big point in Harper’s favor.
I also love how someone pushing Mike Trout, the guy who is benefiting from an insane .413 BABIP right now, would hold Harper’s .372 BABIP in low-A against him.
My argument here has nothing to do with Trout v. Harper. I have no problem with Trout ranking higher. My issue is your asinine argument about Harper only being good because he was always more physically mature when the exact same argument could have been used against Trout until he started hitting at the MLB level this year. For the love of God, you compared Harper to Karim Garcia. Do you know how much of a Trout homer/Harper hater that makes you look like?
To be fair though, Ruth didn’t have a season with WAR/600PA over 10.0 until 1919 with the Red Sox (11.4). That was his 6th season. Trout has 10.3 WAR/600 PA in his 2nd season. Ruth only had 8 of 22 seasons over 10.0 WAR/600 PA. This could just be one of many more for Trout. It certainly isn’t impossible that he gets better. Ruth is evidence that someone can have a better season. His WAR/G and WAR/PA are still increasing all the time. I’m not saying I know that Trout is better, but it isn’t that remote of a chance that we find out later down the road that he is/was the greatest of all time.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — July 23, 2012 @ 8:56 pm
Nothing in your comment really applied to anything I said, other than getting the players names correct.
Basically this is your logic. Harper was a number one overall pick, and rushed to the major leagues, therefore he is going to start hitting 40 HR’s every year from 2013 on, and he’s a superior player to a guy who would have been #1 overall had he grown up in the same neighborhood as Harper and has been the best player at every level he’s played at, including thus far, the American League, a better league than Harper plays in.
How many full seasons of Trout having 1 to 3 more WAR than Harper will be required for him to be superior, in your mind, or will it always be meaningless because Harper is going to bust out next year?
In June of 1974, was David Clyde the most valuable player in baseball? He was a better prospect than Harper, right, because we’re not judging them on numbers, just age and time spent in the minors.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 23, 2012 @ 10:28 pm
Reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, is it? I literally just said I have no problem with Trout being ranked higher. I haven’t put enough thought into it to really know who I would take at this point.
My issue is with your ridiculous comparison of Harper to Garcia and claims that Harper is just a more physically mature player than his competition and that’s the reason he’s been considered a top prospect.
Nothing else you just said has anything to do with what I said. You’re clearly just a huge Trout homer who can’t even consider the possibility that Harper could develop into the better player. You’re not worth the time or the effort.
Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 23, 2012 @ 10:44 pm
The fact that Fangraphs missed on Jordan Zimmermann pretty much completely invalidates this list. He has pitched like one of the top 5 pitchers in the league while being young and cheap. Isn’t that the exact definition of trade value? In fact the Nationals hung up on the Royals when they wanted a 1 on 1 Zimmermann for Greinke (best pitcher in baseball based on Fangraphs logic) swap. This is the worst list from Fangraphs since they missed on Bumgarner last year and ranked the Mariners the 6th best team in all of baseball.
Thing is that is fine and dandy, but question is will Stanton’s offense make up for the defensive difference and baserunning difference. I know as a Braves fan I wouldn’t trade Heyward for Stanton, but I’m biased I’ll admit that.
My bigger concern with him is the strikeouts — guys with BABIP’s that high and monster power shouldn’t be hitting .280. And he’s not really drawing enough walks to make up for it. He seems like he’ll settle in to being a .360 OBP guy — which is fine, but he’s more of a complementary piece than a franchise guy. He’s young and he’s got time to turn it around, but I have concerns. If everything breaks right for him, He can be another Rocky Colavito. If not, he could easily be Pete Incaviglia.
Jordan Zimmermann is a guy with an injury history that is seriously outpitching his peripherals right now and doesn’t have elite stuff. Oh, and did I mention he’s never thrown more than 161.1 innings in a single season? He’s also going into his second year of arbitration, so he’s not going to be cheap for very long, especially if he continues to pitch well. And seriously, since when is 26 considered especially young for a SP? He has a very good argument for one of the last couple spots on the list, but acting like his exclusion invalidates the list is just asinine.
Comment by Nitram Odarp — July 24, 2012 @ 12:05 am
I hope you aren’t as retarded as you sound. Where do you get this idea that Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t have elite stuff? That ranks up there with the worst of Fangraphs. You do realize that Zimmermann has the 4th fastest fastball velocity in the NL? Not to mention he has a solid changeup and 2 good breaking pitches. I bet you would say that Hanson, Bumgarner, and Greinke have elite stuff yet Zimmermann is significantly ahead of those guys in fastball velocity.
His peripherals are awesome. 3.16 and 3.50 FIP is elite . He was 10th last year in FIP. The last time I checked, there was 16 teams in the league therefore at #10 JZ is comfortably a #1 pitcher based on the most important pitching stat.
Please tell me what the most innings these guys pitched in a season? Darvish, Cueto, Sale, Bundy, and Moore. Oh yeah that’s right, it was not significantly more than 161 IP.
Age is irrelevant. There is like no difference between 24 and 26 years old for a pitcher. As Halladay and Dickey are proving, age is not a huge issue for pitchers. There are 30+ starters every year playing well. Its not like 26 is old considering the peak years are 27-30 so JZ still has those years under team control.
Trout’s agent would have to be a complete moron to negotiate that deal. He’s headed for arbitration awards that could make him half of that in the next five years, and then more then that whole contract in the next five.
Risk/reward is one thing, but leaving potentially 60-80 million on the table to sign a ten year deal doesn’t make much sense.
I got $132 million on 10 year deal for him, starting at $1 million next year and raising to $24 million in year 10. I would bet the Angels do try to do something sooner, rather than later, using Longoria’s deal as their “ideal”.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 24, 2012 @ 10:41 am
You spend a lot of time putting words into my mouth. All I did was listed a player who was large, and considered very advanced for his age, to illustrate that all players do not mature at the same rate. To assume that Harper is going to follow the same career arc as Ryne Sandberg did, doesn’t take into account the fact that Harper was as physically mature as people 3 years older than him when playing JUCO ball.
Put it this, way, if he was born in the Dominican Republic, how many people would believe he’s 19 today? Maybe he’s the next Pujols, maybe he’s the next Tony Conigliaro, the jury is still out.
Comment by The Real Neal — July 24, 2012 @ 10:50 am
If you don’t think that Trout has real power, then you simply haven’t watched him, and you’ve never seen him in your life. The kid is built like a tank, who looks more like Brian Urlacher than a baseball player, and has opposite field power in Angel Stadium. That takes strength. Sometimes it takes a little more than just citing minor league numbers to explain power. Stats don’t explain everything, at some point you have to watch the kid.
Harper has strength and the type of swing to lift balls out of the park. While Trout has a short compact swing meant to hit line drives. Trout won’t hit as many has Harper in his career, but clearly he has done enough to show he has 25 HR power in the present. And depending on how his speed deteriorates, and how his body develops he could hit far more than that in a season.
Yeah, this year you have to put Trout first because you have to reward the performance you see over the performance that you predict in the future. If you put Harper first, you’re just being a little too clever for your own good, in my opinion, hot streak or not. Trout is just other-worldly this season.
But it’s certainly worth acknowledging that Harper has the tools to potentially take that #1 spot as early as next season.
You can see discrepancies in the talent pool by looking at outliers. It’s like noting how most of the top few hitters this year are in the NL despite the fact that the NL is not nearly as good as the AL.
The increasing talent pool brings the elite closer to the mean. Ruth’s amazing performances are specifically because he was just that much better than everyone else at the time. The fact that others haven’t been able to maintain that level of performance in the 100 or so years that have passed is because the talent pool today makes it impossible.
I don’t think Dickey is a particularly relevant example, he is truly one of a kind.
And I don’t think Halladay has proved much of anything this year for that matter.
I love Zimmermann. I think he’s a Matt Cain type pitcher who will continue to outpitch his peripherals for years and that he was definitely snubbed for this list, but specious arguments and ad hominem attacks really don’t help to prove your point.
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 25, 2012 @ 6:00 pm
I think everyone reading thought your Karim Garcia comment really was off-base, and I’m fully on the Trout 4 Prez side. FYI, Conigliaro didn’t fulfill his promise because he got clobbered in the eye with a pitch. Please research before you make misguided comparisons.
What about St. Louis’s pre-arb wonders David Freese and Allen Craig? Heck, Craig’s arbitration salaries will even be unusually low because of all the playing time he keeps losing in the Cardinals’ stacked lineups.
@Jones Please tell me you didn’t just use fastball velocity as your primary argument for having elite stuff? Velocity means almost nothing if the pitch is straight as an arrow and he can’t locate it. I’m not saying either of these is true for Zimmermann (I’ve never heard of him before), but there are a lot of things more important for a pitcher than fastball velocity, otherwise Greg Maddux would’ve had nowhere near 300 wins.
It’s a non zero chance, but I would place the odds of Trout ranking as the GOAT in 25 years at around 2%. It’s extremely hard to produce at this level year in year out. Hell, we can’t even agree that he’s going to be the best player in baseball next year.
@Melkman Keep in mind that Babe Ruth basically invented the live-ball era single-handedly. Players at the time preferred to be slap hitters who just hit for average even though many of them could have hit many more home runs if they tried, just like Ichiro Suzuki.
Ty Cobb, who was nearing the end of his career, claimed this of himself then went out and proved it by hitting multiple homers in his next game (although he was sorely mistaken about the appeal of slap hitting vs. power hitting).
Once other players realized that Ruth’s homers led to better run production and higher fan popularity and attendance figures, they closed the gap on him, and power hitting was here to stay.
I don’t see how Molina could miss this list entirely. Using Zips for the rest of the season he will have been worth about $48M over the last two seasons.Considering they only pay him 75M over the next 5 seasons and his value is most likely underrated by WAR (ie intangibles/blocking pitches etc./ working with pitchers, etc.). I was very surprised he was not on here.