If the Rangers pull through and win the AL West and the Angels lose the wild card playoff and Greinke packs his bags, I will be so happy. Hahahaha I’m a Rangers fan and loved Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, and Zack Greinke and all my favorite players sign with my least favorite team in baseball….
So Mike Olt really was too much to wish for. Darn. Well, hopefully Segura can stick at SS and be a top-of-the-order hitter… urg. Slightly disappointed by the return the Brewers got for Greinke. I guess I haven’t read much about the pitchers until now though.
Shouldn’t whether they get to keep Greinke beyond this year be a factor outside of this deal? I mean, they would have to sign Greinke to a FA deal and the money itself is the cost, not the prospects they gave up. They gave up those prospects strictly for two months and the playoffs with Greinke, beyond this year is outside of the scope of evaluating the deal, right?
Comment by 28 this year — July 27, 2012 @ 11:30 pm
Segura as a trade chip I mentioned when you posted about his call-up last week:
One could argue that by actually being on the team for these last 2+ months gives the Angels a sort of ‘inside track’ on signing Greinke to an extension. I’m not sure if I really buy that notion, but I agree with you that the players involved in this deal are completely independent of whether or not he signs. Greinke’s not signing a deal because of what Milwaukee got in the trade, he’s signing because they’ll give him a lot of money.
I’m a bit surprised Greinke didn’t net a better haul, or at the very least a 4th prospect to go with the unimpressive trio they obtained. It’s not a terrible haul but they should have netted at least a top 30 guy, or at least a significantly better package than Atlanta was gonna give up for Dempster.
It makes me wonder if Ruben Amaro was offered similar packages before going full throttle to sign Hamels. I’d honestly be pretty pissed if Rube got this type of package for him.
Don’t forget they’ll have $30+ million coming off the books this offseason to, most notably with Abreu and Hunter’s contracts up. Haren has a $15.5 million club option, and Ervin has a $13 million club option. Safe to say they won’t be picking up Ervin’s option. Haren…who knows
they’ll definitely have the money to sign Greinke, just gotta hope they do it before he is officially a UFA and the flood gates open up for every other MLB team
Angels will sign Greinke. One, they got that $150M TV contract last year, and barely put a nick into that even with their spending during the off-season. Two, their owner is a billionaire who has not been afraid of spending more money to make more money, so signing is a no-brainer and almost assured.
This is true, but dependent on the org. Folks who oppose this viewpoint present it as a “hometown discount” scenario, which is not it. If you’re a team looking to acquire star players through FA, the player’s feeling about the org. and city matter. If the player has already been in the org. for a period rather than it being one of five cities he and the wife visit during the FA tour, it could be a big factor, because the money between the last two or three teams is going to be very similar. It’s not that is absolutely must matter, but it could. If I’m the owner or GM of the Angels I take that into account, especially for a dude who is a little outside the box like Greinke.
There is negative probability that he signs an extension before the end of the season. That’s not specifically what you stated, but it has been expressed in a lot of places. Greinke might be a bit odd, but he is very, very smart and savvy. So just be happy that you have a Top 5 starter for the playoff run.
The rental argument does not make sense because an awful lot of folks have expressed that they can’t believe the Angels gave up SO MUCH for a rental.
I agree with the original sentiment, but Melvin just completely botched this process. First he eliminated some teams from playing by stating that he wanted a SS back (meaning Rangers out because Profar is off limits). Then he said Zack would definitely be traded, and that he had not been talking extension with him. Here’s the thing, sales is lying, plain and simple. If the press asks you if you’ll trade Zack, say the org’s preference is to keep him long term, and the owner is committed to paying Hamels money. And even if you have not actually “talked contract extension” for a while, you should be texting his agent every so often saying something like, “My phone is on 24/7 to talk extension.” Then if you’re not good at lying you can at least say you’ve been in contact about it. And if they say, “You’ll get nothing for him,” you say that you’re definitely going to make a qualifying offer, and if Zack signs somewhere else you’ll get a supp pick, which since there will be very few of them from now on, and there is a cap on bonus dollars, is much more valuable than in the past.
Teams with star players have all the leverage, the team trying to win the WS will decide if they’re really going for it or not. Yes, turning down a collection of random guys, including a no hit 2B who currently plays SS but who is beloved by a certain writer at BA, is going to get you scolded by some in the media and a certain part of the fanbase. Season ticket holders, on the other hand, like GMs who talk confidently about retaining stars. And a supp. pick in the new environment is more valuable than what they just got back. Hate to see it happen, but Melvin just got rolled because he gave up every single bit of his leverage.
I’m a Brewers fan, and would’ve loved to see Greinke re-sign. He turned down – at least – 5/$100 mil… Under the circumstances, I think Melvin made out well. I think this makes Angels the team to beat. But it’s going to cost the Angels probably more than what the Giants gave Cain to tie up Greinke. Oh yeah, I haven’t even mentioned the albatross that is Vernon Wells. But if the Angels win it all, who cares
I was hoping the Brewers would get more but I knew they would not. The unfortunate thing about this trade is that the Crew got maybe relief pitchers and as of right now, bench depth at second base with a possibility of a middling second baseman when Weeks contract is up.
If I was GM for a week I would be shopping almost everyone else they have except Braun after the season is over. As a Brewers fan this pains me to say it but they hit their peak and are on a downswing and signing vets does literally nothing for them long term because they will be very hard pressed to be competative in the next 3-5 years due to a gutted minor league system. This Greinke deal should have happened months ago when they could have possibly gotten more for it. The only way they are going to compete in the relatively near future is if they do what they did to get in the situation they are in now. low budget team with a stocked farm system and accumulate talent that can be controlled for a longish period of time that can come up within a 2-3 year window together. It’s how small market teams (of which Milwaukee is the smallest) can compete with teams that are in markets 20 times larger than yours.
You’re being too pessimistic here. I’m writing off the pitchers as nothing more than future relievers, but Segura is a legitimate long-term starter and with All-Star potential at second base (arguably average to slightly above potential at short given his limited range). Jean isn’t as fast as the steals totals suggest, but he seems to be a very smart ballplayer and definitely has a natural feel for making consistent contact at the plate. For those reasons, I was pretty surprised when the Angels locked up Kendrick and Aybar with expensive extensions. The injury history is a definite concern, but you can’t ask for much more than a close-to-ready, low risk, medium reward hitter with only two months left on Greinke’s contract.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — July 28, 2012 @ 11:37 am
I knew he wasn’t going to net more. Getting Profar or Ott was a pipe dream trading him at this point of the season.
Going into this year a lot of Brewers fans had pretty lofty expectations. They put a lot of trust in guys who outperformed their true talent level and put too much stock in guys like Gamel, Gonzalez, and Ramirez if you ask me. The writing was on the wall months ago, yet Melvin bumbled through the last month or so thinking a terrible bullpen plus a ton of injury combined with a lot of players performing at career norms was going to garner wins.
Greinke 1-2 months ago yields better players. Greinke near the deadline yields likely bullpen guys in my eyes plus an average defensive shortstop (a sticking point to me, we’ve been poor defensively for ages) who is the “best” prospect on a team that has a lack of talent in the minors.
Describing Segura as a “no hit” second baseman doesn’t exactly help your credibility. We’re talking about a guy with strong contact skills, a career average right around .300, and solid power for a middle infielder.
I’m not convinced that the Brewers could have gotten more for Greinke a month or two ago. Most buyers are not ready to deal much before the deadline.
The rational reason for this is that they could be waiting to see if they are a contender before acting. I suspect that waiting until the deadline is more of an emotional decision, however.
Is there any doubt that the Angels are the best team in baseball? Mike Trout’s probably the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols isn’t bad himself. They have talent, depth, a winning attitude, and a great manager.
The coolest thing about this trade is now it puts pressure on the other AL contenders to step up an make a move. I’m looking for the team to move Ervin Santana while absorbing a chunk of his salary, as part of the package for more relief help. Their playoff rotation of Weaver, Greinke, CJ Wilson, and a resurgent Dan Haren is the envy of every other contender.
Plus there are big cracks in the armor down in Arlington. What happens in the clubhouse if they don’t sign Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz gets hurt again? Their rotation is in a shambles, and they needed Greinke a lot more than the Angels did.
Greinke was nice to have for 1 and 2/3 years but for what they gave up to get him from KC…I think it was a slick fielding SS having a breakout year with the bat (escobar) who was still a top prospect when traded, Ordorizzi, who is one of KCs best pitching prospects now and would be Milwaukee’s best P prospect now, and Lorenzo Cain, who is looking real good…
its just not a good turn of events for the organization. They would LOVE to have those 3 guys in back in MIL. Not that they didn’t make money and have great hope with Greinke pitching for them, but hope can be misleading.
The new rule of not getting a supplemental pick if a FA leaves after less than 1 yr with your team hurt Greinke’s value a lot. I mean the Giants gave up an ‘elite’ talent to get Beltran for 2 months or less because they knew they’d get a good young player in the draft when he left. I think the haul MIL got for Greinke is pretty darn good considering the Angels will get nothing for Greinke if he leaves for FA and will cost top dollar to keep.
The Angels don’t have a particularly long window to win it all here, but their rotation, which I think was unarguably top 2 in the league to start the year, is just downright filthy now. When Haren is your 4th starter, you’re in good shape. They will have to spend to keep this team elite with the dearth of minor league talent.
I would argue that it is a good turn of events for the organization. They went to the playoffs, won a series, and got fan interest to an all-time high. While this package isn’t as good as the won they traded to get Greinke, it is still a very good one. The Marcum for Lawrie deal hurts a hell of a lot more than the Greinke one.
I would never argue against the trade for Greinke and Marcum. Small market teams almost have to do those kinds of trades to ever attempt to win a world series.
Look at teams that are decent but have good organizational depth and see how often they win it all without making these kinds of trades. Bad long term, great short term. Small market teams on the cusp that want to contend should see how the Brewers did it IMO. Gracefully rebuilding may be a different story
Even an average-ish starting SS under cost control for the next 6 years has huge value to the Brewers who have been playing replacement players there this season and have no one at the position in the minors of any value. Anyone who thought the Brewers were going to get a Profar or Machado for a 2-month rental were delusional from the start. We’re also not talking about 2009 2.00 ERA Cy Young award Zack Greinke. His results over the past two and a half seasons have been less than dominating. As a Brewers fan I am happy with what they got.
What is almost assured is that the Dodgers, under their new ownership who are also clearly not afraid to spend money, no longer have Hamels as a potential target, and have thus far yet to land a pitcher at the trade deadline, will also be bidding heavily.
Having seen Segura play this year there’s no reason he can’t or shouldn’t stick at SS. His range is excellent. It’s his arm that might be a little suspect but if he’s an above average hitter you can easily forgive that single flaw and it appears the Brewers are willing to do so.
Really? For a guy making $11+ million, has missed significant time with injuries in 7 of 8 seasons, and has a negative war this year? There may be a high revenue team willing to gamble that he returns to his career norms, but I doubt it. There are plenty of younger and cheaper options – just ask Detroit, who was probably the banner carrier for a team that might consider that type of move.
You confused small market with small revenue. Ownership has indicated that they are comfortable with the payroll. Sustaining a middle of MLB payroll is not a stretch, given that they have been that since Mark A aquired them.
The hitters are scoring more runs than last season. The starters are preventing runs at approximately the same rate. The bullpen is a lot worse. I think that is the quickest and cheapest of the three to fix, don’t you?
I conceded, albeit briefly, that the Brewers made money and interest out of their success with Greinke, but unless you win a championship, a more sustained approach to building a team will garner and keep more fan interest than splurging to make the playoffs for a year or two.
I’m not saying segura isn’t a decent hitter but he’s in AA Nottingham below .300 and carries something like a 5% walk rate. He’s not terrible but I wouldn’t quite give a guy below .300 in AA an above average ranking yet.
Completely agree with this. The apparent unwillingness to deal Olt is going to cost them. Especially since I personally think he’s one of the most over-rated prospects season. There is a ton of swing and miss there and the futures game really exposed that he does not have elite bat speed. He was not impressive there at all.
But don’t get too confident, as usual Detroit is starting to peak at the right time, and as usual their GM went out and “overpaid” to get top talent to get them over the hump. And the Yankees are pretty good…
Draft pick compensation was not a factor in the Giants giving up a legit top prospect for Beltran. The Giants did not offer him arbitration as a Type A FA, so he just walked. And as obvious as it looks that they should have offered him arb after his bounceback season, had he accepted arb. he’d be making over $20m this season. They knew at the time that that simply was not going to happen.
The notion that draft pick compensation plays a major role in player acquisition is mythology. GMs that deal for players to get into the playoffs generally could not care less about losing the draft picks. To do so would be like your favorite cafe publishing the daily special for a Monday next April. For teams trying to build their orgs by acquiring more draft picks, like AA trading for Miguel Olivo after the season, totally different dynamic.
I thumbed down you for censoring yourself on the internet.
Comment by Michael Scarn — July 29, 2012 @ 12:56 pm
I don’t understand why it matters whether he signs long term or not. The fact is, if he signs long term, they could have done the same whether they traded for him or not. In evaluating the worthiness of the trade, you have to consider only the time that they are getting on the current contract. With that in mind, there is no way that this is a good trade. They gave up way too much for a few months of a pitcher. They could have signed him to a long term contract with or without the prospects, so you only have to look at the difference, which is these few months. The Angels lose in this deal big time.