I would guess that anthopolous has something else planned given that he also traded away thames; just a speculation, but the phillies reportedly asked for lincoln in a victorino trade, so maybe we’ll see a Hunter Pence deal tomorrow.
BlueBirdBanter, the SBNation page for the Jays, seemed to nearly collectively leap off a bridge at the news of this trade. Some dissension occurred and cooler heads are now taking a wait-and-see approach. The Borg Baseball Collective naturally thinks that if you trade someone with the potential to be an effective everyday LFer (or nearly any position player) for someone with the potential to be a reliever, then you lose the trade.
Anyway, the Jays need some bullpen help. The team is having a somewhat remarkable experience on the pitcher injury front, so dealing for need probably factors into this a little bit too.
Control. Lincoln is under team control until 2018, that’s a LONG time, that’s something your article didn’t mention.
Stealth. Like you saw this coming.
High-ceiling players that are underperforming. You could say that if AA was some other GM, he would probably try and trade for Travis Snider because of this, haha. So why wouldn’t he keep Snider?
Anyway, in an unrelated move, the Jays also traded Eric Thames to the Mariners for another reliever (gotta catch em all!). Was this in the same boat? That AA got anything at all for Thames is good for the team; I’m not entirely certain that Eric “Adventures in Fielding” Thames is going to help solve the Mariners woes either. But he could. That’d be a loss for AA, too.
Pedro Alvarez turned 24 before the 2011 season started. So he doesn’t qualify for the list, given he only had 386 PAs prior to that, and his ISO in that time was above 200 as well. He seems like a good comparison to his new teammate though. Almost exactly 1 year older, decent 2010 in roughly half a season, Terrible 2011 resulting in getting demoted, Seems to be back to high power, high Ks, low walks & average for 2012, though Alvarez has done it all year, while Snider’s done it for a couple of weeks.
With Franklin Gutierrez semi-permanently on the DL and Mike Carp playing full-time at AAA, the Mariners were in desperate need of an outfielder who is not terrible. (You joke about Thames, but the guy he’s replacing is Carlos Peguero, who had 22 Ks and 1 BB in 42 PA this year.) They targeted Thames, a guy who is interesting-ish, left handed, strong, and under team control forever. Acquiring Thames is good for the Mariners in several ways. It allows them to demote Peguero. It gives them a DH option who is not a catcher. It fills an outfield hole until Gutierrez gets back, and after that it gives them a young platoon OF bench bat with upside.
Steve Delabar is the guy who was a Padres prospect until his arm exploded, then became a substitute teacher, then somehow got his velocity back out of nowhere and made the Mariners. They didn’t even have to draft him. He has a good fastball with swing-and-miss possibilities and a crazy offspeed pitch, but has been trashed by right-handers all season long. Think massive home runs. This is weird because he’s also a righty, but his primary offspeed pitch (which breaks like a gyroball) is actually death to lefties. As it stands, Delabar is a right-handed LOOGY who also carries an air of the ticking time bomb due to his elbow being literally held together with screws and metal plates. Before injuries to Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor necessitated his call up, Delabar was in AAA working on a slider so that he can get righties out as well. If Delabar ever figures out his slider, he could be a relief ace or even a closer. If he doesn’t, he’ll be a LOOGY likely used wrong by the manager because he’s not actually left handed. Either way, he’s a volatile asset who could suddenly become unable to pitch at any time.
I like this deal for the Mariners, since they have a seemingly infinite supply of power relievers in the minors, their AAA OF depth is mostly terrible, and Delabar may explode at any moment.
I’m not sure how well this deal works for the Blue Jays, since they just traded Snider too, but that’s more a criticism of the latter deal than the former, and Delabar adds cheap (albeit volatile) upside to their disastrous bullpen in exchange for a guy who had no place on their team.
It looks even at the moment, but it all really depends on Delabar. If he figures out the slider and starts getting righties out, Blue Jays win. If he doesn’t figure out the slider but stays healthy, I’d say slight edge to the Mariners just for Thames’ upside. If Delabar’s elbow goes (or if Thames turns out to be more than a platoon bat), Mariners win.
Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — July 31, 2012 @ 4:33 am
Carp is at 1B, Smoak is at AAA. Sorry, typo.
Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — July 31, 2012 @ 4:33 am
I admit, was very hard to look at this objectively as a Jays fan.
Snider had so much promise/potential! But then again nothing to show for.
Brad Lincoln is a very effective reliever with forever of control! But then again… a reliever!
Idk how to feel about this. But at least it now gives me a good reason to jump on that Bucs bandwagon!!!
Comment by Uh Oh Cordero — July 31, 2012 @ 6:38 am
With Joey Bats, Rasmus, and Gose, and Brett Lawrie at 22 and years of team control at 3B (unlikely to move Bautista there anyways but always a possibility) it would be difficult to find playing time for Snider, Gose, and Thames, in conjunction with the fact that they have 29th best FIP in the majors and a shot at one of the wildcards, is probably why AA pulled this move. Toronto is a large market with a lot of potential but the Jays need to win in order to boost their revenue stream.
There doesn’t seem to be much/any mention of the potential scenario where Lincoln is re-invented into an SP for next year, a la Morrow/Villanueva? Thereby increasing his value and the ceiling of the trade.
Is this not a possibility?
Comment by WhipperSnapper — July 31, 2012 @ 8:30 am
I like the trade…the Jay’s bullpen looks pretty strong going into next year (Santos, Janssen, these 2 guys, Oliver, Frasor if they want to resign him, then Perez coming back from TJ surgery later on, Stroman..a bunch of good arms). They just need to shore up their rotation now and maybe grab one decent bat and they look like a legitimate threat next season. I keep hearing these wild guesses at what this could mean by opening up a LF spot, I’m surprised nobody has mentioned Alfonso Soriano, especially since the Jays are linked to Garza. If they grabbed those 2, then threw a bunch of money at Greinke in the off-season, check out how amazing this team looks all of a sudden.
You gotta like the potential ceiling of that Pirates outfield for next season. Snider, Marte, and this Andrew McCutchen prospect that everyone seems to be excited about could be really good. They are one of the better defensive outfields (Snider has really improved on this aspect this year) and the potential for 80 HRs out of the group is nice.
I know it doesn’t mean anything until people start reaching the upper floors, but I could see this being the best all-around outfield in the majors next year.
Comment by Greedy Rabbit — July 31, 2012 @ 9:07 am
Yes, Snider is dripping with potential … but he has been for five years. He’s always whiffed too much, then goes down to the minors to shorten his swing, appears to do better, then gets his long swing exposed again when he comes back up.
After five years of telling Snider to work on striking out less, whiffing 35% of the time in his fifth tour of duty was probably the last straw. Might as well trade him before his label changes from Prospect to Bust, which isn’t long in coming.
I don’t know what they expected to get for Snider, the magical “potential” only shines for so long when you don’t have major league success. At least they got a great bullpen arm who can be coached up to be a starter, better than losing him for nothing in a year or two if he doesn’t have success.
They had plenty of chances to see what they had in Snider but didn’t want to give him consistent PT for whatever reason. Seems like they’ve always had it out for him, I’d say they got a decent return but they would rather have just seen him be successful in Toronto.
I saw this trade as of 30 minutes ago, and now that I’ve had some time to calm down, I think I’ve come at it from two different sides.
Emotionally, Snider was one my favourite platers, and was someone who I so desperately wished would have gotten regular playing time. So much power, and so much meat, but it was not to be.
Less-Emotionally, he was a player that did not seem to have a home on the Jays. With CF and RF locked up, it is between him, and a few other players (prospects and Rajai Davis) in the system. I do not believe his incremental value in LF was very high with his current outlook. Therefore, we dealt a player from a position of strength, who only became a “starting LF” 2 weeks ago. Also, with those prospects, Snider is out of options, and would have been very likely exposed to the waiver wire as early as next year.
We then turned him into a pitcher who at the very least, has some above average bullpen value, and in the ideal situation could be someone who gets his change-up working, and turns into a competent starting pitcher. The incremental value of any competent pitching right now, is very large. Especially for how long Brad Lincoln will be under Jays control.
This trade does not seem all that lop-sided as it first did, and in fact I think there is a very good chance that the Jays come out ahead in this one. I just wish that Moonraker didn’t have to be involved.
Are you referring to when Jack Z. signed the best hitter in the game to a far below market contract or to when Jack Z. got a team to not only pick up the entirety of an $86 million contract but to send back a useful piece?
Or to that 22 year old stud 3B he got in return for a no. 3 starter?
Or to when he got a 25 year old power hitting CF for a reliever and a C prospect? (And got 2 relievers back).
Or are you talking about that time Jack Z. ever had a winning record?
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 31, 2012 @ 9:48 am
They mentioned that the only reason he’s good now is because of the velocity he gained from switching to the pen, so I assume moving him to the rotation is a non-starter. (No pun intended)
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 31, 2012 @ 9:49 am
is this a reply to me? I didn’t call him amazing, I said look at how amazing the team would be now if they picked up a (and I quote) “decent bat”, along with 2 starters. Garza + Soriano makes so much sense now given the huge hole they just opened up in LF, it’d give them a decent bat and wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects or $$, and they’d need just 1 more starter to look like an amazing TEAM.
I’d just like to point out for those who chalked up last year’s deadline deal as a huge win that Colby Rasmus has continued his streaky ways and come back to earth and that the Cardinals got the use of two good relievers, one good starter, two sandwich picks, salary relief by dumping two pitchers, and $3M for him. The Cardinals “won” that deal.
UZR seems to really hate McCutchen’s range this season and has him effectively as the second worst defensive center fielder in the league. I’m wondering if he’s under orders to not lay out for balls to avoid the chance of injury? (the last one I remember him going all out for was a ball he sprained his wrist on in June). I hope the Pirates see the light and switch him to left and let Marte take over in center field. During the Astro’s series I held my breath on the long fly ball to the hill in center where he ran blindly up it. If Snider pans out it makes alot of sense to have Gorkys as a 4th outfielder that can really help defensively with late leads in tight games. This also pushes Jones back to 1st where his ability to platoon with McGahee actually makes them an effective 1st baseman. All in all the Pirates now on paper only lack production at SS. Which we can deal with if Barmes continues to play strong defensively until Hanson is ready.
Comment by Michael Scarn — July 31, 2012 @ 10:56 am
You might want to look at the Rasmus trade again.
Blue Jays got Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters. Miller, Tallet, and Walters had negative value. Toronto released all three within two months. So Toronto got three years of Rasmus.
Cardinals got Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson, and Marc Rzepczynski (and draft picks from Dotel and Jackson). Patterson was negative value. St Louis got partial seasons from Dotel and Jackson; they also got four years of Rzepczynski. The predicted marginal value for 2011 at the time of the trade was quite high.
Looks to slightly favor the Jays to me, but the two draft picks shouldn’t be overlooked for the Cardinals.
A couple of notes. First, Las Vegas is not “perhaps the most hitter-friendly situation in the minor leagues.” It’s not even close. Its BBTF Park factor is 1.02 for homers and 1.01 for hits. It does appear to significantly inflate doubles (1.09).
Snider had an ISO of 0.219 in AAA and 0.213 at other minor league levels. His average was 0.333 in AAA and 0.294 at other minor league levels. His strikeout rate was 21% in AAA and 29% at otherminor league levels.
Looks like a reasonable bet, but not one guaranteed to succeed.
Jays had 39 players under contract for next year with FA’s at 2B (Johnson), two late inning relievers (Lyon and Frasor) and a swing starter (Villa). The Happ deal alleviates concerns if Villa doesn’t sign, and now the Delabar and Lincoln deals mean that they HAVE to sign or replace Frasor or Lyon (not saying they won’t at least sign Frasor). With a couple of DFA candidates in Richmond and Litsch they now have that little bit of wiggle room to address the biggest need which is a front end starter. I thought Snider had more value than this…but it’s time to move on and build this team into a contender.
Comment by Roster Management — July 31, 2012 @ 11:13 am
Hm, not changing that. That park factor for runs in Las Vegas makes it the sixth-best offensive park in the most offensive league. So it’s in the conversation with five other parks for best situation for a hitter, and he hits in the other five parks? Yeah, I think that’s a pretty sweet situation, beyond just the straight PF.
If I could be held to one bold quote in baseball, it would be this: Travis Snider will mash immediately and will blossom into one of the best hitters in the game by the time Brad Lincoln takes his next piss. If you watch him, everything is starting to click, which is scary given his talent. This guy could start dominating now.
Comment by Tribe Fan 107.9 — July 31, 2012 @ 11:49 am
The Jose Bautista for Robinzon Diaz deal came a few weeks after the Bay deal, so that would have to be Huntington’s last real stinker. But a lot of his trades since then have been pretty small-bore, where the players that came back didn’t pan out but he wasn’t giving away anything of much valuable. Tim Alderson has been a big disappointment to say the least, and there are lots of trades getting rid of guys like Adam LaRoche and Javier Lopez where the players coming back never amounted to anything.
Also, technically the Akinori Iwamura acquisition was a trade, and that sucked.
Getting Jackson for Stewart and Frasor was the real coup, I forgot about Dotel and Rzepczynski, TBH.
The Cards would make that trade 11 times out of 10 to win a WS, flags fly forever. The Rasmus trade is more impressive to me than his fleecings because he got excellent value in return for spare parts without blatantly cheating anybody.
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 31, 2012 @ 11:49 am
I could see this being the best all-around outfield in the majors next year.
I don’t even know if it is the best outfield in the division. Holliday, Beltran, Jay (with Craig as a backup corner OF) is quite good.
I’m a huge Jays fan, and even I think Romero should be sitting for a while, or something to get his head on right. Don’t talk like this please. Have a little sense. Even Tony Reagins would laugh at you for this.
The difference between the bay trade and the Bautista trade is that, at the time, Bay had value, Bautista did not. Neil didn’t get enough in return for Bay and has admitted as much since then. Bautista had low value at the time and hadn’t shown much more than a bit of power and a lack of plate discipline. That being said, I agree with your other points.
The difference between the bay trade and the Bautista trade is that, at the time, Bay had value, Bautista did not. Neil didn’t get enough in return for Bay and has admitted as much since then. Bautista had low value at the time and hadn’t shown much more than a bit of power and a lack of plate discipline. The other trades never amounted to much because the players that were traded weren’t much. That being said I agree with the Aki trade, though at the time it made sense, he was Hori-bad.
What list would that be? Us pirate fans are all yelling for an impact player to trade for but don’t want to give up anything in return. No one wants to see Marte, Cole, Taillon, Hanson or Heredia in a trade so how would we acquire an impact bat? What Neil did here made a lot of sense. Take a chance on a young player with years of team control and some left side power and in turn keep our farm system intact and lose nothing more than a reliever who can be replaced easily enough and whom we had no rotation spot for going forward. Should be win/win for both clubs.
I’m glad you can see into the future. Can you tell me who wins the next few World Series so I can lay a few bucks down?
Yes, the potential is there for AA to have made a huge mistake. Snider is all about potential. But sometimes potential does not turn into production. AA is gambling that he can get equal or more production out of Lincoln. He might bet wrong, but he could also be right.
As far as #1 goes, you are assuming that Snider has a good remainder of the season. He could easily have gotten hurt (he has a bit of a history, especially with his wrists) or his hitting could go south (which has also happened before). Both of these would have reduced his value.
#2 Snider and Gose are not connected. I’m now certain that Snider got the call up because Pittsburgh wanted to see him in MLB action before they pulled the trigger. Gose was and is Jose’s injury replacement.
Villanueva is absolutely not a converted starting pitcher, but rather a long reliever pressed into services as a starter. I could see Lincoln’s career path in Toronto following Morrow’s, however, and I can only speculate that AA has this plan, because I can’t imagine anyone would trade Snider for a relief pitcher, no matter how talented.
If you liked what happened with James McDonald this season, then you should be open minded with this deal. It’s basically the same type of move, and without what James did earlier this season, there’s no way the Pirates are thinking about the playoffs this late in the season. This is a smart wager by the Pirates, even if it doesn’t pan out.
While I think AA has done an excellent job overall I do question the timing of this trade. That the Jays only got back Lincoln shows that Snider’s trade value now is fairly low. If you believe the Jays don’t have much of a shot at a wild card — they are 4.5 games back now –then perhaps it would have made better sense to let Snider play every day from here on out. If he performs as in the past, you trade him for a Lincoln-quality player in the off-season. If he plays better, you’ve increased his trade value as 2-plus months is probably enough to tilt the scales in the eyes of some GMs.
At the end of the day I don’t see the Jays overtaking the Angels or Rangers and the Tigers or White Sox.
Pretty sure that the Jays got two years of control of Rasmus. I believe he’s a “super 2” that will be a free agent after 2013. Unless you’re counting the end of his last season as one of the Jays’ seasons of control, that is.
That “lol” above is exactly why I brought it up though. The trade was declared a huge victory for AA when it was made but few seem to have realized that it really wasn’t.
This is likely more of case of the Jays being tired of waiting. Snider has been in and out of the lineup for a few years now. He was given every chance to succeed but never grabbed the brass ring. He needed some new surroundings as any MLB success he may have, was not going to happen in Toronto.
Comment by Randy Bobandy — July 31, 2012 @ 2:42 pm
Frasor, Stewart, Dotel and Rzepczynski for 3 years of a power hitting CF is a pretty huge victory as far as I’m concerned.
And, especially with the new draft system, the supplemental draft picks are nice, but not that valuable.
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 31, 2012 @ 4:16 pm
Three years of a power hitting CF would be a huge victory for the parts AA traded away. Rasmus has the potential to be that, but I’m not convinced he’ll reach that potential.
Here are some stats by year (09 – 12):
wRC+: 89 , 129 , 90 , 102
BABIP: .282, .354, .267, .267
BB% : 6.9 , 11.8 , 9.5 , 7.8
This year’s Rasmus is more valuable than the pieces he lost in the trade.
Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — July 31, 2012 @ 9:23 pm
Ya bad swap in hindsight however what would Napoli have done for the Jays? Nothing. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs and his value came after an incredibly HOT second half where his trade value wouldn’t have been that high at the July 31 deadline anyway if they wanted to sell him.