Do you realize that Rios and Gordon signed their deals while still having arbitration years remaining while Cabrera doesn’t? Do you think that just maybe that may have an impact on how much money they made? Presumably, reasonable people can agree that guys in arbitration make less than guys in free agency?
Obviously, you can’t use the whole contracts as that includes arbitration years. Instead, you have to look at the non-arbitration years. Rios got 12 million per non-arbitration year as did Gordon. Given that a player generally takes a discount when he buys out arbitration years(why else would a team take the risk of an injury), we can assume 12 million is the minimum.
However, there’s another outfielder who recently signed a deal called Adam Jones. Adam is one year younger than Cabrera and had one more arbitration year than Cabrera. On the one hand, AJ has a high average fWAR but Cabrera has had a high fWAR the past two years. They both are guys who can play Center Field but UZR thinks should play Left Field.
Something like 5 years and 60 to 75 million is probably more likely to happen.
he’s gonna get penalized simply because the narrative on him was he was a bust, but in reality he was just going through growing pains while playing in the majors. if he’d been called up a year or two later, like a lot of prospects, he may have had more development time in the Mi and been major league ready sooner. instead, he had to learn on the fly.
i’d still be nervous about signing him, as a giants fan, because i can’t shake those early years from my memory, but i’m not sure the last two years are flukes so much as they area guy hitting his stride.
Comment by MrKnowNothing — August 9, 2012 @ 11:06 am
Dave said 5/$75 in his chat yesterday and that seems a little high to me. That’s probably what he’ll ask for. I’d see something like 4/$50-55 but I guess I could see him getting a 5 year deal from someone…maybe. In that case, 5/$60-65 could be what he’s looking at.
I don’t think it’s fair to compare Rowand and Cabrera at all..If you do remember when the Giants signed Rowand, it was off his career year in a hitters ballpark in philly. We signed him with expectations but seemed to be obsessed with Rowand’s leadership skills. Obviously after years with no production it didnt work out. After last year I was wondering if it was one of the Career years or flukes for Cabrera but if you look at his numbers this year and last they are outstanding. In 2011 he hit for .300 for the first time and collected 200 hits, 44 doubles 86 rbi and 100 runs scored. He has carried that into this year and then some. He will get heavy consideration for MVP along with Posey and Andrew McCutchen. In the time Melky has been in SF, he has been consistent at the plate day in and day out. Consistency should not be put in the same sentence as Aaron Rowand. Even in his best years he was streaky with a good glove with an average arm. Melky is becoming a dynamic force on both sides of the ball. I would be willing for the Rowand deal for Cabrera, he is well worth it. He can flat out hit and score runs which is something the Giants need while their phenom pitching is still all together.
Comment by Peyton Daniel — August 9, 2012 @ 11:36 am
Depending on the contracts, that’s possible, but Bourn is the better player.
Seems to me the only two questions holding Melky back from a monster deal are consistency in his career and the SGL %s. He is really a corner OF with moderate power. He has lifted his career BABIP up to .310 now, fueled by a fearsome .390 this year so far. That BABIP falls, the SLG gets more attention, and there is the rub.
I think the Rowand deal is the basement. If the Gints really did offer up a 3/27MM, that is a nice cautious first offer. 5/75MM sounds like a nice middle ground based off the two issues. If the Giants (or another team) can carve off a year on the deal, that would be a big time score. Maybe the historical performance can be emphasized. But if I know my Sabeanz I bet he is getting ready to grab his guy. Always bird in the hand for Brian. Just remember to offer that 1/13.5MM as well, some team might get a little loopy here if Melky picks up any more hardware. Draft picks? What are those?
Watching him play in Atlanta, I think he went through literal “Growing Pains”. He came to camp very overweight and pretty much looked like he destroyed every clubhouse spread. The slimmed-down Melky of the last year and a half looks like a different player. Wonder if teams will be cautious if he’s only an offseason of Big Macs away from blowing again.
Nice research, and I agree with your conclusion.
Another factor in Cabrera’s favor is that there will be a huge amount of media and fan pressure on the Giants to sign him, just as there was leading to Cain’s mildly overpriced extension early in the season.
I’m surprised the G’s haven’t already tried to extend him while they still have the monopoly, but, then again, poor strategy from that team’s management is nothing new.
He’s lucky that there are 30 teams, because I’m sure a fair number would not touch him with a ten foot pole. However, a few teams with money to blow will give him a contract based entirely on the kind of player he looks like right now (and ignore the very real possibility that he reverts to Atlanta-Melky), which will be at least the Roward 5, but I’d guess he gets more like 5/75.
I would be shocked if he got more than Rowand did. The current ROS ZIPS projection for Melky is about the level I’d expect him to perform over the next few seasons: something like a .340-.350 wOBA player. That gives us a ~4 win guy, but I think teams will be hesitant to give a guy like Melky, who has struggled with his commitment to baseball in the past, big money. I think 4 years/$50 million would be a fair deal for him. He sure picked a great season to have a ridiculous BABIP spike.
As long as the Giants re-sign him I’ll be happy, if he gets Rowand money
good for him. Zito will be gone soon enough.
Comment by Hurtlockertwo — August 9, 2012 @ 3:06 pm
I think the estimates here might be a fair estimate of value but I’d bet that he gets more than 5/75. With all the lucrative TV contracts, teams have a lot of money to spend and this is a pretty weak free agent class. Hell, Ethier who is about a 3 WAR corner outfielder just got 5/85.
the Giants are paying Zito $18MM this season and Timmeh $20MM this season as well, so the Zito money is irrelevant.
Giants can afford Melky without affecting the Timmeh money, in fact, there is no way Timmeh makes $20MM AAV in FA now. He still isn’t right, despite better numbers, and has shown how quickly he can disintegrate. Probably won’t sign any more than a 4 year deal, ever.
the Zito money goes toward keeping Pablo and Posey long-term.
While the two players are completely different, Melky’s breakout from seemingly nowhere is reminiscent of Jose Bautista. I think that 5 year, $65 million deal is a good fit. Of course, you have to adjust for free agency.
With Bourn and Upton poised to get paid much more than that, Melky could see his price escalate.
The comparisons to Rowand are a joke. Melky Cabrera has a swing that can produce line drives like a lawn sprinkler. The underlying talent level isn’t even close. Melky is BY FAR the more skilled player. The only worry is motivation and fitness. And it seems as though he’s matured in regards to both those categories.
Comparing the talent is pointless. Rowand vs Melky?
Anyone think that the Yankees will be in play for Melky? With Gardner’s injury and given that Melky is a NYY product, it would appear that they might be interested in bringing him back. He has also demonstrated, based on two solid seasons worth of data, that he finally gets it in terms of keeping fit and focused.