What happened up til now doesn’t matter. Tillman,Gonzalez,Johnson,McClouth,Thome,Ford, others weren’t here. Guys that got bashed around(Arrieta,Matusz,Britton,Hunter) are no longer in rotation. Were also without Markakis for 6 weeks(46 hits last 34 games). Add Hammel back in 2 weeks and there is no reason this team can’t go 30-21 last 51 games.
Comment by Andy MacPhail — August 9, 2012 @ 11:21 am
Linked to this on Orioles Hangout. Very well put, especially the Pythag stuff.
Comment by VeveJones007 — August 9, 2012 @ 11:22 am
Good points, like always. My only issue: I’m not one of those dudes that feels two months of a ‘rushed promotion’ is disastrous for a player, but I think the concern that promoting Machado based on the team’s 2012 versus what is *more* appropriate for his development needs to at least be given more consideration. I notice that you say if he fails, no big deal – he’ll just start the year in the minors next year. Well, sure. But that’s just process. What are the substantive ramifications of 2-months (assuming, of course, he fails) of sustained failure for Machado’s development? All individuals react different to failure leading to all different sorts of outcomes. The possibility that Machado doesn’t react favorably to a rushed promotion (and, let’s be frank, it *is* a rushed promotion) needs to at least be considered in the decision/evaluation of the decision.
Comment by CabreraDeath — August 9, 2012 @ 11:27 am
This was essentially my concern, as stated below. I think people overreact to ‘rushed promotions’ in general, but I think the concern is at least valid and relevant to the decision-making process.
FWIW, I hope your concern over Snider is misplaced and he realizes his full-blown potential, as a huge Buccos fan. But, you’re correct – his career thus does raise the obvious question of ‘rushed promotion disorder’.
Comment by CabreraDeath — August 9, 2012 @ 11:30 am
As a rule of thumb, if you cite Nate McClouth and Lew Ford as potential difference makers going forward, then your comment should not be taken seriously.
Comment by Michael Scarn — August 9, 2012 @ 11:30 am
Good article, Dave. Also, let’s not forget the recent example (albeit SSS) of Simmons (another SS, but less highly touted than Machado) jumping from AA to the Braves with only minimal variation in his numbers. I will say he was little unique in that he was essentially told to just play good defense and not worry about his hitting. I wonder if it’ll be tougher for Machado having to deal with defensive pressure of switching to 3B and offensive expectations . It’ll be fun to watch.
Oh yeah now that the O’s got Lew Ford back for the stretch run the rest of the AL East better watch out. The guy put up a .432 wOBA during his magical 2010 season in the Mexican league so he’s clearly going to give their OF a huge boost.
CD, I get your point, but I feel like if a position player can’t handle failure for two months, then I’m not sure they are ever destined to make it. Every player goes through slumps, and we all know the saying about “even the best hitters fail 2/3 of the time”…so, if he can’t handle two months of striking out and realize “crap, I’ve got to learn to hit offspeed stuff”, then he’s already in trouble. Yes, I definitely think there’s a slight added risk if the guy has a fragile psyche or is more likely to make too many adjustments/get into bad habits, but absent that scenario, I think that risk is worth the potential reward here. Also, I’ll say worst-case scenario…they get all “firsts” out of the way and get him comfortable with being with the MLB club, he figures out some important things to work on, and is much more prepared next year.
Side note: I definitely see your “rush” risk being a bigger consideration for young pitchers, who may be less used to failure or may injure themselves trying to overthrow or make adjustments. But, that’s just based on my broad assumptions…no factual basis.
The position switch has me very concerned. He’ll make who knows how many mistakes as he adjusts to the unfamiliar position (and at the major league level, no less), is more likely to hurt himself (Will Carroll, along with additional research), and will have less time to work on his hitting due to the time needed to work on the 3rd base stuff.
This will only work if Machado has an ’80’ mental and emotional approach along with his baseball skills. Which if his minor league supervisors say he does, then yeah, bring him up.
Good point. The run differential hardly means anything if the team does not stay constant. They’ve replaced several ineffective players with new faces, and there will be more to come. They might have benefited from a lot of luck up to this point, but the future is up in the air. If Steve Johnson and Miguel Gonzalez both end up pitching adequately (Chris Tillman has already won me over), it’s going to be a close race.
Not much mention of the likely added value on defense. Yes, it’s a new position, but farther down the defensive spectrum. It’s what, 3 weeks longer than the cup of coffee he’d get anyway, and he ought to be an improvement on defense if a slight downgrade on offense, so why not? Duquette’s gotta keep rolling the dice if he wants a chance at reaching the post season.
Regardless, I look forward to seeing how the kid plays!
i think the implication is that if one doesn’t do those things, you’re less likely to see expanded playing time. i’m sure we can think of plenty of managers tolerate less-than-stellar fundamentals in favor of projected talent when filling out a lineup card.
Someone explain Jake Arrieta to me. He comes up throwing harder, looking good, with solid peripherals. Then he proceeds to have a horrid LOB% and BABIP and allows a ton of runs as a result. The Orioles demote him. And now since he has been demoted his peripheral stats are in the toilet albeit in a small sample. What gives?
Richie, the White Sox did a lot of that last year under Ozzie Guillen.
Comment by Yinka Double Dare — August 9, 2012 @ 12:37 pm
The problem with bringing up Travis Snider as an example is that he’s always continued to hit well against minor league pitching, so leads me to believe that there is less of an issue of him being rushed and more of an issue of him being a AAAA player.
Comment by Michael Scarn — August 9, 2012 @ 1:14 pm
will anyone on this site care?
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — August 9, 2012 @ 1:40 pm
People who have never followed Machado and just googled his season stats this morning will think this is a team oriented move and could possibly be detrimental to his development.
But that isn’t the case. Machado is batting .440 for the last 2 weeks and hit for the cycle a few days ago. His performance has gotten him on the roster, not the team needs alone.
I don’t think this happens if Betemit can play an average third base. Or even a below average third base. But to call what Wilson Betemit does on a baseball diamond “playing third base” is to misapprehend the rules and objectives of the game of baseball. Even Buck, as stubborn and slow to adjust to reality as he is, had to come around sooner or later.
Orioles are fools gold. Won’t finish better than 3rd in the division. I wouldn’t even rule them out for last. How many years now have they started off really well only to completely fall off and collapse?
Colin – I do not have any direct knowledge of the situation, but I imagine the Orioles (read R.Peterson) are working to increase Arrieta’s mechanical consistency and tempo. Similar to the re-work on Tilman which started in ST. Despite dominating AAA in his previous stint, Tilman posted heinous numbers early this year for Norfolk.
There’s a lot of info out there on the approach/philosophy/technique RP utilizes to develop pitchers. Bio-mechanical analysis is part of his program and most of the Orioles’ pitching prospects went under the cameras when Cs and Ps reported in the Spring. Guys on the major league squad did not.
There’s only one 2012 baseball season. Irrelevant data points mean nothing to the rest of this go around. There are meaningful critiques to be levied against this iteration of the Os; you failed to address any of them.
“In general, standard deviations around a team’s true talent level are believed to be about eight to 10 wins per full season, so it’s completely normal for a 75 win team to win 65 or 85 games just due to normal variation”
Question about the standard deviation of wins around true talent: I thought that 8 to 10 was the observed standard deviation of wins, but that the standard deviation around a team’s talent (based only on luck) is more like 6 wins.
The point about expecting large variation still stands either way, but am I understanding this correctly?
It’s a different and potentially harder throw. A-Rod really struggled making it when he moved and he has one of the strongest arms in baseball. I really think the O’s are expecting to much of this kid to throw him in the big leagues at a new position.
I’d argue that Clint Hurdle does this on a regular basis (o.k., maybe he asks them to hit the cutoff man), but because the Buccos are winning, nobody except those of us forced to watch our “speedy” baserunners being #hurdled notices.
MVP and Cy Young voters, too. “Well he got lucky…his xFIP was 4.53!” or “his BABIP was an unsustainable .385!” you can almost hear the cry on a quiet autumn eve…
To which one should say…so what? I would venture a guess that *every* MVP winner likely outproduced their (always nebulous) “true talent” level in their MVP season. But it matters not to me what they “should have” done, or what they would have done with a league-average BABIP or strand rate, only what they *did* do.
Question: can pythags and late/close records be affected by bullpens, and do these stats take that into account? Say the Orioles had the best bullpen ever assembled, their record in one run games might statistically be seen as unsustainable, but it actually might not be?
Comment by Stats newbie — August 9, 2012 @ 3:58 pm
Worse than Encarnacion?
Comment by Stats newbie — August 9, 2012 @ 4:00 pm
theres only one. he pretends to have an imposter when he gets his dumb posts thumbs downed. if people like his comment, then hes the “real” one.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — August 9, 2012 @ 4:09 pm
the pythag doesnt take that into account. its strictly a formula based on runs scored in the aggregate and runs given up in the aggregate.
Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — August 9, 2012 @ 4:10 pm
So, in a hypothetical scenario, if I had a bullpen full of Mariano Rivera in his prime clones, my Pythag scores, record in one run games,etc, would appear unsustainable, when in actuality they wouldnt be?
Comment by Stats newbie — August 9, 2012 @ 4:12 pm
Except for Barry Bonds, who was just so much better than everybody else that his ‘true talent’ level was better than anyone else’s fluky-great season.
I wonder what the alternatives available to the O’s at the deadline were. Was there not a third baseman around who could provide league average defence and some offensive contribution? I cannot imagine that that skill-set on a rental would cost too much. The Yankees acquired McGehee for Chad Qualls…
The problem with the Machado rush has been identified here- the development concerns perhaps magnified by the position switch.
Comment by Mike Green — August 10, 2012 @ 11:43 am
Seems unlikely he’ll be any worse than Mark Reynolds or Betemit at 3B.
Along the lines of what Richie said, an outstanding bullpen would not fuel a team to overperform its Pythag, because the runs that bullpen wouldn’t allow would become part of the team’s Pythag record.
The bullpen that might help a team outperform its Pythag would be a very polarized bullpen. You need to put Marianos Rivera in whenever you need to protect a lead, and then put AAAA retreads out there to work on new pitches when you’re trailing. This you’d win more close games and lose more blowouts, changing the relationship between your run differential and your record.
Richie, not so. they finished 2010 on a 34-23 tear and played nearly .500 baseball (28-29 IIRC) for the last two months. take it for what it’s worth, but since they’ve had Showalter as manager (I don’t really want to get into the effects of a manager on a team, I don’t think anyone has the right answer) they tend to finish strong.
Oddly, the Orioles would win like this back in the ’70’s with pitching, defense and timely hitting. The major difference with this team is that their bullpen is +A top notch group of pitchers. They are the glue that is holding it together.
A great bullpen and inconsistent starting pitching would also accomplish the same thing as a bullpen full of Marianos and AAAA retreads. And inconsistent starting pitching and a good bullpen is exactly what the Orioles have.
I love how sure people are about things that they have no ability to be sure about. I’m an O’s fan and I was worried all season they wouldn’t keep it up–but then they did. I never understood how people KNEW they wouldn’t sustain it, though. To people who said that, I always asked one question: If the O’s have a winning record while not playing that well, what would happen if they started playing better? Looks like that happened…
Comment by iwishyouweresmart — September 30, 2012 @ 7:06 pm
Those people are long gone. It’s easy to post dismissive, insulting things when you do it all the time and never go back to see if you ended up being right or not. If you don’t go back to check, it allows you to continue in the erroneous assumption that everything you think is right, and continue in the belief that everyone who disagrees with you is an idiot.
Comment by iwishyouweresmart — September 30, 2012 @ 7:14 pm