Imo Scherzer will be a Cy Young contender next year. He’s scary good. It should be noted that he leads MLB in infield singles allowed. He’s had frighteningly terrible luck. He also leads MLB in SIERA. If he can cut the HR/9 down a little more the sky is the limit.
The Tigers have the highest BABIP in the AL. It’s hurting all their pitchers; Porcello, for example, has the best FIP of his career but is still throwing up a mid-4 ERA. Tough to be a GB pitcher when the GBs go to Miggy and Fielder. Infante has been a welcome change, but my point is that Scherzer’s high BABIP may have been more a reflection of infield defense than random variation. After all, it’s back up to .384 this month.
The stat that seems to reflect his luck better is LOB. It’s high now and was low in April. I’m too lazy and stupid to run any numbers, but it might account for a big chunk of the variance in his ERA.
Scherzer made an adjustment to his delivery. He raises his hands farther above his head and slows his delivery down a bit. This was based on advice from Jeff Jones. I think removing Raburn and adding Infante to 2nd have helped with some infield issues.
I don’t know if you can look at pitch f/x splits at all to confirm this, but I believe in ST Max and the staff thought it’d be a good idea to throw more two-seam fastballs, probably to get more weak contact/easy outs and keep the pitch counts down. This didn’t really work great, and I believe they scrapped or scaled back the idea either in late April or mid May. FWIW.