FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. That first changeup to CarGo is nasty, great late movement.

    Comment by DD — September 4, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  2. I saw that changeup to Chris Nelson in the recap of his game, and I thought it was a slider. I wonder if he varies the movement that much on purpose. If he did, that would help explain why he doesn’t vary his usage with the handedness of the batter.

    It’s also interesting that Medlen has the exact same repertoire as Strasburg but ~10mph slower, and yet Medlen has been so good at preventing runs that he’s the one having these articles posted about him. Not expecting this to continue, of course.

    Comment by Bip — September 4, 2012 @ 5:38 pm

  3. Not that it matters, but there’s a typo in the last sentence, missing an “o” in “composition”.

    He has a low whiff rate on the two seamer, but gets the most called strikes with it (25%), which seems to me to emphasize how effective having the change and two seamer look so similar has been for him…hitters see changeup and just get frozen.

    Comment by David Sitrick — September 4, 2012 @ 5:42 pm

  4. Thanks, guy — with regard to the typo, I mean.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — September 4, 2012 @ 5:51 pm

  5. I’m not sure it’s going to continue quite at the pace he has been going but he has a 1.56 ERA with a 2.22/3.10 FIP/xFIP. So even if there is regression it could be slight.

    Stras for comparison has a 2.93 ERA with a 2.63/2.74 FIP/xFIP.

    You have to believe that Medlen’s HR/9 will come back to earth eventually. He’s only given up 2 HR’s in 104 IP. But other than a slightly lower BABIP and higher LOB%, he isn’t greatly out performing his peripheraps. So the real Kris Medlen could be pretty dang good.

    Comment by Wil — September 4, 2012 @ 6:25 pm

  6. I highly doubt his command will continue to be as phenominal as it is. He’s always been good in hist short stints though. A 3.5 FIP can be expected, no?

    Comment by Alex — September 4, 2012 @ 9:45 pm

  7. These are awesome. They are by far the best visual look of a pitcher’s stuff out there. It would be fantastic if you could create a catalog of these for as many pitchers as you can. It gives a very good visual preview of a pitcher I am about to watch or looking up without going through mlb.tv for 25 minutes. Well done.

    Comment by Danny — September 4, 2012 @ 11:08 pm

  8. Dat glorious Turner Field CF camera.

    Comment by DuPu — September 5, 2012 @ 1:05 am

  9. Gives me a goddamn chubby.

    Comment by TheoK — September 5, 2012 @ 1:35 am

  10. His eyes must have nearly popped out of his head waiting to pounce on that pitch. I wonder how many hitters strain their shoulders swinging and missing on filthy changeups like that.

    Comment by tz — September 5, 2012 @ 7:56 am

  11. The key with Medlen appears to be how late these pitches move. After the GIFs of the changes and 2-seamer, it was almost laughable to watch the 4-seamer to Brown look like it just jumped over his bat at the last millisecond.

    Comment by tz — September 5, 2012 @ 7:58 am

  12. I don’t know if his command will be as good as it has been, but it won’t be much worse. He’s walking about 1.5 batters per 9 now, and for his career he is close to 2 per 9, which is still, as you know, pretty good.

    As for the projection of his FIP it’s hard to say. He only has 281 MLB innings with a line of 3.00/3.08/3.38 ERA/FIP/xFIP and that’s for a guy relatively new to the league. What his projections going forward will be, I couldn’t say personally.

    Comment by Wil — September 5, 2012 @ 4:38 pm

  13. I actually like this guy a lot, obviously because of his numbers but also because he’s young, not a stereotypical flamethrower like they’re pumping out of the minors, and most importantly, knows how to pitch.

    I think, before, in baseball these types of pitchers were much more common than they are now. Nowadays if you don’t throw 95 no one wants to look at you. Medlen, RA Dickey, some others are showing people that there’s more to pitching than straight velocity.

    Comment by MC — September 5, 2012 @ 6:16 pm

  14. Yes watching the Mets telecasts in the mid-2000′s, Tom Seaver would say that there are three components to pitching: (1) velocity (2) location (3) movement.

    I think he always said that you could be really, really good if you have 2 out of 3 but awful if you have only 1 out of 3. Medlen may not have the velocity but he seems to have the other two in spades.

    Comment by MC — September 5, 2012 @ 6:18 pm

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