I think the BBWAA is going to agree with you this year, though. Mauer’s generated too much hype by now and the only people seemingly left in the Jeter or (gag) Teixeira camps are Yankee homers and grossly underqualified writers.
Well, I think Wainwright will win the NL Cy Young, mainly due to the “let’s not keep giving it to the same guy” method of voting (see 1952 NL MVP vote). Greinke should be set as well, wins still matter to too many writers, but I think it’s not all that hard for them to wrap their heads around how awesome Greinke was in 2009. 242 K vs. 41 walks? Ridiculous.
Zobrist was the best player in the AL.
By WAR, he was better Pujols and Mauer
even though you could argue that Mauer’s defense is good(say+5~10 run?), Zobrist was punished by being flexible(-1.1 positional despite having to play 90 games in the infield and others in the outfields)
Just by value, Zobrist outplayed Mauer in 2009. What a year.
I doubt anyone really believes his defensive numbers. You’ve got SSS at multiple positions. No one is getting credit for being a +20 defender until he’s proven it over several years. This year’s results could too easily be a fluke.
I thought the same thing when I saw Dave’s pick. I’m not sure what criteria people look for when choosing Manager of the Year, but here’s a thought- Seattle finished 8 games above its Pythagorean W-L, Texas finished 2 above it. You could use this to argue that Wakamatsu thus got the most out of the least. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it’s a debatable point.
As long as you assume Mauer had minimal or negative defensive value, I guess. John Dewan’s system gives him +4 runs, which is just about exactly what Mauer would need to be dead even with Zobrist in WAR.
Dave, I know WAR disagrees with this pick, but how about some consideration for Tommy Hanson for best NL Rookie? With an ERA under 3, a FIP and tRA under 4, and 116 punch-outs in 127.2 innings, he had an excellent 2009 campaign. He’s an ace in the making.
I’m sorry, but if I see someone else write something about how “ridiculous” Greinke’s K/BB ratio is, I’m going to scream. Curt Schilling never won a Cy Young and was better than Greinke at both striking people out as well as not walking people (example: Schilling in ’02 had 316 K’s and only 33 Walks — now THAT’S ridiculous). Greinke’s ratios are quite good, but when people call them ridiculous, it’s like saying baseball before 2009 didn’t exist.
That Schilling’s ratios were even more ridiculous doesn’t necessarily make Greinke’s less so. My threshold for “ridiculous” may not be the same as yours, but Greinke can still meet it without taking anything away from other players.
I should note that I like to consider a player’s impact on his team. And of course, the larger the sample of effective play, the more I like a player (which is what edges Happ over McCutchen and Hanson in my mind). Happ saved the Phillies rotation (it baffled me that Park was given 1 start over Happ, let alone 7). What Andrus has done for Texas’ defense is difficult to understate and he accomplished it while hitting better than most expected.
Actually Greinke’s had 51BB’s and 242K’s not 41BB, but if you think those numbers are ridiculous they aren’t, just go look at a man that can’t even get a sentence mentioned for him for NL Cy Young. Javier Vazquez, 219.1IP 15 W’s 2.87ERA 238K’s 44BB and 1.03WHIP. His best season of his career, granted it is the NL and not the heavy hitting DH’d AL, but this guy does it year in year out, 3 straight season with 200+K’s. I mean clearly he doesn’t deserve the Cy over Lince, Carp, or Wainy, but still he should be mentioned.
Heck you can tell my favorite team, but throw Jurrjens into that 215IP 25QS(only Lincecum had more at 26). 2.60ERA 152K’s(obviously a downer) but those are quite impressive numbers, and with a little run support and no failing bullpens he would have had 20wins to got with that 2.60ERA
Very apt analogy, especially considering the descriptions were:
“Don Wakamatsu, Took over a team in turmoil, made them like each other, and won 85 games in the process.”
Jim Tracy, I guess, if I have to pick someone. Not a very impressive group.”
CHONE at least projected both teams to have the same record before the year (78 wins). Jim Tracy was handed his team 10 games under already at 18-28, and still got them to 92 wins by playing .638 ball. Not only that, he almost got his team to catch the Dodgers, who had already won the division by May 6. Which is just good enough to edge out an unimpressive group. I guess. If I have to pick someone. But Don Wakamatsu! He led them to 85 wins, and they liked each other, dammit!
I wonder what Dave’s favourite brand is. I guess for an award that there’s no point in trying to pick, though, you might as well make a mockery of it.
JoeR43 is ttly right here. MVP, or “Best Player,” means who had the best SEASON or the most valuable SEASON or whatever. Who cares that Joe Brown had a .380 BABIP in an MVP conversation? If you’re having a discussion about who’s better: Joe Brown or Bill Walker, then it matters. If ur talkin about who will do better next year, it matters.
And just cuz the BBWAA doesnt use WAR doesnt make it irrelevant to Dave’s “Best Player” award. It just means the BBWAA CHOOSE that it is irrelevant to THEM. Not the rest of us.
Wells: 12-10 3.05 ERA/3.88 FIP/4.57 tRA 5.7 K/9 2.3 K/BB 1.28 WHIP
Coghlan: .321/.390/.460 .372 wOBA 31 2B 6 3B 9 HR 47 RBI 84 R 8 SB .139 ISO
Call me crazy but I don’t see how Coghlan is the obvious pick here at all really. You can even make a case for Hanson and Happ over Coghlan, but I do think Coghlan is the best NL rookie positional player.
You say “He’s been better than Pujols and Mauer” like it’s so definitive, but when checking the leaderboards, he “beat” Pujols by less than one run. If you honestly feel these statistics are so accurate as to claim value to less than one run, you’re a more trusting person than I am.
I love WAR, but let’s not make it the be all, end all. Results that are within 5 runs of each other are not so conclusive that we can say, “Well that guy was CLEARLY better this year.”
Finally, if you want to play the “hurt by positional adjustment” thing, it’s not as if Mauer received the full catcher positional runs as well.
You’ll quit watching baseball? I’m a Marlins fan and I’d accept McCutchen. He’s damn good. And Coghlan hurt his value with his glove in left field. It’s not his fault Gonzalez put him in left, but it’s what happened. And the argument that he started bad but got better doesn’t change the fact that he was bad enough to cost around eight to ten runs with his glove (UZR’s got 12, but I’m sort of regressing in my head).
How about Ron Gardenhire for AL Manager of Year? Started the season w/o Mauer for a month, starting pitchers pitched well below expectations for two thirds of the season. Crede was pretty much a non-factor the second half. Morneau missed the last month of the season and was also basically a non-factor the second half. Have had to play a rookie (Morales) at DH most of the second half. No set infield the second half, changes in each position since the break.
All that and one game from a playoff birth. Wakamatsu and Washington had good seasons, but neither are going to the playoffs or even have a chance.
IF not Gardy, then Scoscia for holding the team together after the death of Adenhart.
I disagree Josh. While Coghlan has been the best rookie hitter by a pretty large margin, he plays an “easy” defensive position and by all accounts has played it rather poorly this year. Using WAR, Coghlan actually falls behind a few other rookies in the NL.
almost all of andrus’ value lies in his defensive ability. he’s certainly adept at stealing bases, but those two things alone will not get you touted as the next derek jeter. if that were the case, jack wilson would be mentioned in the same breath as david eckstein.
an “easy” defensive position he was basically thrown into, though. his natural position is 2b.
in my opinion, seeing a lot of hanson, mccutchen, and coghlan this year; i’d probably vote mccutchen, hanson, coghlan. for the future i think it’s hands down, hanson. kid has incredible swing & miss stuff.
As much as I love Andrew McCutchen, I’d have to give NL ROY to either Hanson or Happ, probably Hanson. I had the oppurtunity to see Hanson pitch on a couple occasions this season. Kid got some dynamite stuff and knows how to use it.
Maybe someday, if the NL keeps getting the quality of rookies as compared to the AL this season, the NL will stop being dominated.
Yeah, the difference between UZR and batting runs here are that batting runs are definitively based on real events, whereas with UZR there’s a measurement error that means it’s likely even if Zobrist actually fielded over his head this year, his true performance wasn’t +20 (his distribution of balls was favorable, or what have you).
Yay on the Lincecum pick. It’s like people are starting to pay less attention to him now that it’s become so normal to see him dominate. Another stellar season — even better than last year, actually. I won’t be mad if he doesn’t win it, because Carpenter and Wainwright had great years as well and they made the playoffs and voters are going to love that, but Tim deserves his second trophy.
I love Andrew McCutchen and Happ and Hanson are both deserving, but what about Garrett Jones? He BY FAR had put up the best hitting numbers by any rookie this year…..in 3 months no less. His line of .293/.372/.567 with 21hr in 358 pa is amazing.
I think he deserves way more love than what he’s getting. Just because he’s 28 doesn’t make his year any less great.
Comment by SpacedCowboy — October 6, 2009 @ 1:07 pm
He was awesome, and on a rate basis you’re right that he was the best rookie hitter, but playing only half a season is going to get him dinged pretty heavily in awards voting. He’s definitely a guy to look out for next year.
Yes guys, Schilling’s ridiculous ratio kinda does make Greinke’s seem not so ridiculous. Schilling ratio was TWICE Greinke’s. 9.58 to 4.75.
Greinke’s ratio was 4th this year, would have been 6th last year, 4th in ’07, 4th in ’06, 5th in ’05, 8th in ’04….It is very good, but doesn’t even come close to ridiculous.
Ya wanna know ridiculous? Brett Saberhagen’s k/bb ratio in 1994 was 11.
Greinke would not have finished in the top 2 in any year of this decade and his season was 50th of the decade for a full season by a starter. Carlos Silva had a ratio over 7 once. This doesn’t even count Ben Sheets’s 10.55 ratio in 2006 9only 106 innings) or Jon Lieber’s 7+ in 2002 (141 innings).
This isn’t to take away from Greinke’s season. He’s the best pitcher of the year.
Stop. Please. You guys are knowledgeable baseball fans. You need to drop the whole K/BB ratio thing. K/BB ratio is not the proper way to weight how important strikeouts and walks are to winning/pitching well. If Player A strikes out 200 with 40 walks in 150 innings, while Player B strikes out 100 with 10 walks in 150 innings, Player A had a better season (just plug those numbers into the FIP equation and you’ll see I’m right), despite Player B having twice the K/BB ratio. K/BB ratio is a nice thing to use just to glance at a pitcher’s numbers and quickly judge if he’s effective or not, but if you’re getting into a detailed discussion like this, it’s a bad tool. You might as well go back to using ERA.
(I’ll also note the original poster for this conversation, JoeR43, didn’t use the ratio but instead gave us the total K’s and BB’s, which is good, everyone else should follow suit…)
Greinke just posted a 2.33 FIP and 2.75 tRA (remember – scaled to total runs, not earned runs). I believe the run environment has dropped off a bit from where it was at a few years ago, but it’s still on the high side in baseball history. He also did it in the higher run environment (and tougher league), the AL. Color me impressed. It was a ridiculous performance.
I feel weird as a fan right now when it comes to Tim. Obviously I love seeing Giants players get the recognition they deserve, but it’s bad for the team I root for if Tim wins the award. Going into Super-Two status with not one, but TWO Cy Youngs under his belt? Ugh I can’t even imagine being on the Giants side of that argument/negotiation. So…should I feel bad hoping he doesn’t get it to save my team money?
The correct answer is that Sabean is an idiot and would waste whatever money we saved, so obviously I hope Tim wins it, but hypothetically if we had a good GM that could use that money well…would it be ok for me to feel that way?
B, you are correct. Except for the fact it was 242 to 51, not 242 to 41. And the first response pointed out Schilling both had more Ks and fewer walks. And his ratio was double Greinke’s. I don’t think anyone in the thread thinks absolute ratio is the determinant of who had the better season.
Santana, Martinez, Johnson and Schilling all had seasons this decade of higher k rates and lower walk rates than Greinke’s this year. Just on first look. halladay had fewer Ks but also fewer walks and a higher ratio, and his k rate wasn’t chopped liver. His higher FIP is much more due to home runs than fact he had a slightly lower K rate. Greinke’s home runs per flyball was 4.5%. Normalize that and his FIP comes back to earth somewhat. Indeed, his tRA* is slightly below Lincecum and Carpenter.
Of course none of this is particulalry important and again not to take away anything from Greinke, who should be AL Cy Young.
“Just because he’s 28 doesn’t make his year any less great.”
See, I disagree with this. I like the idea of giving the award based on performance rather than projections, but I look at it as…well, there are a lot of 27,28,29 year olds out there that had better years than he did. The only difference between Jones and them is they aren’t rookies. How many other 22 year olds performed like McCutchen? I think that’s another point that’s strongly in McCutchen’s favor – most kids his age are in college, or in the minors. Indirectly of course that factors projected production in, but the thought process that goes into it is strictly based on his actual production.
And I believe it, I’d just like to see people post the total K’s/BB’s/IP’s as their evidence instead of something meaningless like K/BB. It’s an important point to keep us on track as to who’s really performing better.
Did Wakamatsu really get the Mariners to 85 wins, or was it Ichiro/Gutierrez/Hernandez/Branyon/etc?
I’d prefer not to pick the award at all, since I don’t think anyone here can really tell how much each manager really did, but if you’re going to pick it, at least don’t gush over one manager for one set of criteria and basically dismiss another who exceeds that criteria.
Comment by mannysfirsttrimester — October 7, 2009 @ 12:38 pm
Where is Mike Scoscia in the manager discussion? All of the injuries. The lack of a bullpen. Sure, he had some quality players to fill in. Lackey, Guerrero, Hunter missed huge chunks of the year. They were carried by guys who came up through the system. Aybar, Figgens, Morales, Weaver. I appreciate what Washington, Wakamatsu and Gardenhire did, but no manager has as firm a stamp on a franchise than Scoscia (except maybe Tom Kelly, via Gardenhire).
Comment by whatlyahave — October 15, 2009 @ 5:41 am
Well, Dave, 31 total wins from this year’s Cy Young winners. Looks like the statistical shift might be closer than you thought.