A Summer Without Sellers

With the draft officially in the books, we are now officially entering MLB’s trade season. Most teams prefer to take the first couple of months to evaluate what they have at the big league level, allocating their time and scouting resources to lining up their draft boards rather than considering significant trades in April and May. Once the draft ends, though, focus shifts to the 2015 roster, and teams begin to make decisions about their direction for the rest of the season.

In this age of parity, driven in part by the existence of the Wild Card play-in game, most teams now try to make a run at the postseason, or at the least, don’t surrender their chances unless they are left with no choice. And this year, the stars are aligning to create perhaps the most extreme seller’s market we’ve seen in a very long time.

In the American League, every single team still has a puncher’s chance at the postseason. The spread in the standings from the top spot (KC, .596 Win%) to the 14th spot (BOS, .450 Win%) is only 8.5 games, and while the A’s would normally be assumed to be dead in the water with a .393 winning percentage, their BaseRuns Win% is .556, 8th best in baseball; this is not a team that is going to continue losing six out of ten games going forward. They’ve probably dug themselves too large of a hole to climb out of, but it wouldn’t be that surprising to see them win 15 of 20 and climb right back into the AL West race.

The AL is the land of mediocrity, with no really great or terrible teams, and expected regression pushing things even more into the middle over the last few months. At least one or two teams will break out of this pack and win 90 games, but it’s pretty reasonable to think that any of these divisions could be won by a team that ends up with fewer than 90 wins. And along with two Wild Card berths serving as a fall-back plan, that possibility makes it unlikely that any non-Oakland AL teams decide to fold up their tents and move talent for prospects this summer.

Over in the NL, it’s a pretty different story, with a clear separation between the contenders and the pretenders. Pretty much all of the worst teams in baseball reside in the senior circuit, and this is where the talent that will be made available this summer will come from. But when you drill down to the specifics of what the National League also-rans are going to sell, the picking still look particularly slim.

The Phillies are definitely going to be sellers, and they have one particular piece who will attract significant attention in Cole Hamels. They’ll also likely move Jonathan Papelbon and Aaron Harang, both of whom are useful enough to be worth trading for but aren’t exactly going to change the fortunes of a team in the second half. And they could move Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or Carlos Ruiz, but with replacement-level performances and significant contracts, those guys might end up just staying put instead.

The Brewers are also definitely going to sell, but to this point, the public reports suggest that they’re only interested in moving the players that are the reason they need to sell in the first place. They’ll trade Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, and Aramis Ramirez to anyone who wants them, but those are all just salary dumps of overpriced role players who probably shouldn’t start in a playoff game. Carlos Gomez is their one significant asset who apparently could be available and will draw real interest.

The Marlins could be sellers, but their best players are young guys who aren’t particularly close to free agency, so even if Miami does admit that this probably isn’t their year, you’re looking at Martin Prado, Dan Haren, and Mat Latos as potential trade chips. The D’Backs are in a similar position, a non-contender with a roster full of young players who are under team control. Even if they do decide to sell, they’re marketing the likes of Addison Reed, Brad Ziegler, and Oliver Perez. You could put the Braves in this category as well, as they’ve already sold most of the things they want to sell, and also might be left just marketing the likes of Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson.

That leaves us with just the Rockies and Reds, neither of whom looks like a serious threat to make a run in the second half, but are hanging around close enough to .500 to keep ownership convinced that it’s possible. These are the two franchises that could really move the needle, putting the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Johnny Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman on the market. If both teams decide to sell, then there might be enough supply to meet the trade deadline demand for upgrades, but if either (or both) decide to hang around and try and make a run in the second half, there just won’t be many upgrades out there for buyers to actually acquire.

So that leaves us with two definite sellers, one of whom is apparently not interested in moving their few players that could actually make a contender better, along with a half-dozen potential sellers, three of whom have already purged their rosters of the kinds of quality veterans that buyers will be looking for. Realistically, we’re probably looking at having roughly 20 to 22 teams looking to add talent this summer, and somewhere between five and eight teams actively serving as the supply to that demand.

While they might lament their team’s inability to contend, the Rockies, Reds, and Brewers should actually be excited about the idea of kicking off their rebuilds in this environment. Beyond just the normal trade deadline markups, this summer season looks to be particularly seller-friendly, and the the prices that teams might be able to hang on the pieces they’re selling are likely to be astronomically high. If the Rockies really won’t trade Tulowitzki in this market, where there might not be another significant power hitter available, then they should just never trade him.

With so few sellers in the market, I would expect we might end up seeing a pretty long waiting game, and deals might get pushed back closer to July 31st than they have been in prior years. Buyers are going to want to see if guys like Cueto, Chapman, and Tulowitzki hit the market, or if the Brewers realize that this is perhaps the time to trade Jonathan Lucroy, and if both Colorado and Cincinnati hang around the Wild Card race long enough, those decisions could end up going down to the last week in July.

And that means that any buyers looking to strike early are going to find a market stacked against them. Lots of buyers, few sellers, and almost no talent available. Ruben Amaro couldn’t have scripted this any better, and as long as Cole Hamels stays healthy for another six weeks, he’ll get a very strong return for his ace. But beyond Hamels, it isn’t clear that any other significant player will definitely be on the move this summer.

Contenders, I hope you like your current rosters or the high-minors help you might be able to promote in the second half, because if your plan is to make a bunch of splashy trades in order to bolster your playoff run, the pickings are going to be slim and the prices are likely to be extraordinarily high.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Troll Man
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Troll Man
11 months 12 days ago

no athletics for sellers?

Tim
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Tim
11 months 12 days ago

Only 9.5 back now.

Pls
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Pls
11 months 12 days ago

He mentions the Athletics in the article as very likely sellers..

Bitter Beane
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Bitter Beane
11 months 12 days ago

in which article?

Joe
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Joe
11 months 11 days ago

Third para:

while the A’s would normally be assumed to be dead in the water with a .393 winning percentage, their BaseRuns Win% is .556, 8th best in baseball; this is not a team that is going to continue losing six out of ten games going forward. They’ve probably dug themselves too large of a hole to climb out of, but it wouldn’t be that surprising to see them win 15 of 20 and climb right back into the AL West race.

KB
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KB
11 months 12 days ago

I am hoping the Brewers wise up and move both Gomez/Lucroy before the deadline, along with the obvious Lohse/Ramirez/etc.

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

The A’s are currently 8.5 games out of a WC spot in a league where there are no great teams, and one they absolutely could go on a 10 game winning streak in. They have the best SP in the AL and a team OPS+ of 98, with bullpen help on the way and are past the “Butler notoriously being bad in May” thing.

The AL could best be describe as a “dumpster fire” this year, and any team, including the A’s could make the playoffs, so no one will be se;ling. I do see the Reds, Brewers and Phillies selling though.

ReuschelCakes
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ReuschelCakes
11 months 12 days ago

Beane is an active manager and seems to believe that there are only 2 options: buying or selling. Said differently, if you think the A’s shouldn’t be selling then you should think they are buyers.

The A’s will not be buyers.

Therefore the A’s will be sellers.

Bip
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Member
Bip
11 months 12 days ago

In actuality though, I could see Beane making a trade of major leaguers for major leaguers, about which we wonder “was that a buy or a sell?”

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

Agreed strongly, Bip. I could see him pulling a 3-team deal and getting Aroldis Chapman and trading Reddick to the 3rd team or something like that. You really never know what Beane is going to do: he exists outside all the absolutes that ReuschelCakes speaks in.

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

I actually do see them being buyers though. They need a closer if Doolittle is toast this year.

treggeynot
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treggeynot
11 months 12 days ago

I didn’t know Felix Hernandez or Corey Kluber or David Price or Chris Sale or even Chris Archer were on the Athletics.

ed
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ed
11 months 12 days ago

I am realtively sure s/he meant “starting pitching.”

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

I meant rotation 1-5, and they lead the AL in rotational ERA.

theo epsteins left nut
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theo epsteins left nut
11 months 12 days ago

ill take sonny gray over david price though…

That Guy
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That Guy
11 months 12 days ago

Is a team OPS+ of 98 good?

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

Its better than the Twins, who are at 89.

Careless
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Careless
11 months 12 days ago

Where does a 10 game winning streak get you when you’re 8.5 games back in the WC with 10 teams in front of you? about 5 or 6 games back. Some other team(s) will play better than .500 over that period.

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
11 months 12 days ago

Agreed, and being 5 out on July 31 means still in the race.

Pale Hose
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Pale Hose
11 months 12 days ago

Didn’t we expect last year’s trade deadline and the winter meetings to be quiet too? They both turned out to be crazy pants.

CrazyPants
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CrazyPants
11 months 12 days ago

Hey, who you calling crazy pants??

Slippy
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Slippy
11 months 12 days ago

Do you think the Brewers will also try to move Francisco Rodriguez, assuming they actually try to sell?

oh Hal
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oh Hal
11 months 12 days ago

Not recently, but Melvin has said before that he’d trade anyone if the price is right. Like Lucroy, I’m sure he’d move Krod, but fans imagining trades usually are thinking about improving their teams at a modest price. And for what its worth, other GMs don’t seem to trust Krod as he continually remains on the market the past few times he’s been a FA

mtsw
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mtsw
11 months 12 days ago

We should probably expect one or two of the not-great AL teams to fall out of contention by the trade deadline if only by chance. Even a decent team could simply have an A’s-esque run of bad luck between now and the deadline.

The Orioles, in particular, seem to have a lot of collapse potential and a lot of tradeable assets (somewhat mitigated by the fact Wieters, probably Davis and possibly Chen and O’Day could potentially bring back draft picks from QOs if they remain on the team.) It’d be very interesting to see what Duquette could try and bring back if the O’s find themselves in 4th or 5th place at the deadline and decide to tear it down.

HVC
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Member
HVC
11 months 12 days ago

Unfortunately, I think the division is too mediocre this year for the Os to fall significantly out in the next month.

Would be an interesting time for a “mini” rebuild to try and capitalize on AJ’s reasonable contract/Manny’s prime over 2016-18.

Vil
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Vil
11 months 12 days ago

I agree with both mtsw and HVC. The Orioles definitely have the potential for a collapse, in particular when you have two corner OFs who are dreadful and a pitching staff that almost certainly will give up more HRs than last year.

But they play a lot of games against mediocre teams within the division. Tampa is winning somehow with smoke and mirrors, but a pitching staff w/o Cobb and Smyly? That bullpen is going to get burned out. Yankees had a nice run recently but you still have to be concerned long term about Tanaka’s ability to stay healthy and Miller going on the DL really complicates things for them the next 2-3 weeks.

Toronto not getting any consistent help from their young starters. Boston still looking for that #1 starter and waiting for Ortiz, Napoli, Sandoval and Betts to awaken from their slumber. And HanRam is hurt again, what’s new?

Greg
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Greg
11 months 12 days ago

The Orioles have a decent lineup when healthy and will have the added bat of Wieters (and minus Joseph) going forward, plus the bat of Schoop (minus Flaherty) in five weeks. Further, Gonzo, Ubaldo, and Chen are a solid starting three and Tillman is going to figure stuff out. And the O’s bullpen was arguably the best in baseball over the last month or so. I don’t see a collapse coming, but even if they underperform it won’t be worse than .500 ball going forward. There’s just entirely too much talent there for that.

A firesale at the deadline would be reasonable. I’d like to think they’d trade Davis for magic beans, but there is no 1B free agent next year to replace him and the only player in the system is Christian Walker. He isn’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball.

Chen is a must sign. I don’t imagine they’ll keep O’Day, Hunter, Wieters, Young, Wright, or Norris.

everdiso
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everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

The AL East leads mlb in run diff, baserun diff, and projected war….by a healthy margin.

calling them a mediocre division is just wrong.

everdiso
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everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

and people always miss what tampa is all about.

even with all fangraphs’ adjustments, people don’t seem to realize what a crazy pitcher’s park they play in.

everyone thinks the rays are always about pitching, but never notice that they have top 10 war from their position playees every year, and never notice that their pitching is never as good as the raw numbers say (just look at their historical road era for a surprise).

The Rays’ position players rank 9th mlb in war. top 10….as usual. they rank better than the pitching, which is 11th.

People just don’t recognize how good tampa’s offense always is. Hint: wRC+ is your friend.

check out what tampa’s lineup has done the past 2 seasons:

1. CF Kiermaier 112wrc+
2. RF Souza 109
3. C Jaso 121
4. 3B Longoria 111
5. 1B Loney 107
6. DH Dejesus 127
7. 2B Forsythe 103
8. LF Jennings 100
9. SS Cabrera 89

B. UT Butler 143
B. OF Guyer 111
B. IF Beckham 95 / Elmore 95
B. C Rivera 85

this is a good offensive team….as per usual.

LTP
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LTP
11 months 12 days ago

Why should the Rockies trade Tulowitzki *from their perspective*? Even if they go into a rebuild, they control him through 2021 on a team-friendly deal. CarGo, Arenado, and Dickerson will all hit free agency before Tulowitzki. Additionally, while there are promising middle-infield prospects in the minors, none are close the majors or are anything like sure things.

If you believe the Rockies should trade Tulowitzki, then you should also believe they should trade Arenado and Dickerson and do a protracted 5-year rebuild Astros-style. Yet nobody seems to think they should do that.

TangoAlphaLima
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TangoAlphaLima
11 months 12 days ago

Tulo is owed a minimum of $98 million over the rest of his contract (with an extra $11 million if the 2021 option is picked up by the team). 2021 is Tulo’s age 36 season. In contrast, both Arenado and Dickerson are young players who are cost-controlled through 2019. Tulo’s contract is not even remotely comparable to the Arenado and Dickerson situations. It’s a false equivalence.

Gregory
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Gregory
11 months 12 days ago

Because, at age 30, he will soon enter his decline phase and the Rockies will not soon be able to contend. Not to mention the fallacies you bring up in your second paragraph (e.g., not considering a potential trade bounty providing the team with more depth to complement the younger Arenado and Dickerson, or the fact that the Rockies could re-sign said younger players).

AndrewYF
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AndrewYF
11 months 12 days ago

Looks like the strategy of ‘it’s okay our team sucks, someone will give us better players at the deadline’ is kind of a dud, huh?

TangoAlphaLima
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TangoAlphaLima
11 months 12 days ago

Dave, interesting article. Although I appreciate the reasoning behind it, I wonder if the declaration of a possible “extreme” seller’s market isn’t a bit premature.

Just looking at the AL, I think we could see drastic changes in a given team’s perspective on making a playoff push over the next few weeks. The Twins for instance, who we all knew were punching above their weight thus far this season, just got swept by the Royals, and now sit at a 17.8% chance of making the playoffs. It really would not be surprising to see them go 3-9 over their next 12 games to shuffle themselves back near the rear of the AL Central instead of the top.

Likewise, the Rangers, White Sox, and Orioles all have worse current playoff odds than the Twins, and I suspect that one or two of them will struggle over the next month and be ready to become sellers by the All-Star break as well. This won’t create a plethora of sellers in the AL, but it could add enough to avoid an “extreme” seller’s market.

MikeS
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MikeS
11 months 12 days ago

As a White Sox fan, I would rather see them be one of the few sellers and get back some useful parts than have them say “we’re only 3GB of the second wild card!” when they have to leap over 5 or 6 teams and stand pat or even try to buy.

Kevin
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Kevin
11 months 11 days ago

This seems like a great point to me. It’s easy to see how the A’s are likely to regress back to the middle of the pack or better, and that the Twins/Astros could fall back to earth (or have each begun to), but there’s another outcome here. One of the middle-of-the-pack teams could lose 10 straight and slip from 4 games back to 10 games back in a hurry.

Being 10 games back at the end of June, with a dozen teams between you and the playoffs probably sinks the likes of the Rangers, White Sox, Twins, Indians, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays. If any of those teams goes on an ugly losing streak over the next 2-3 weeks, they’ll turn into sellers quickly.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

I would understand this “mediocre AL” stuff from another website, but not so much from fangraphs.

Top5 Baserun diff

TOR +41 —- LAD +77
NYY +39 —- PIT +38
KCR +34 —- STL +36
OAK +30 —- SFG +32
HOU +28 —- CHC +15

If you want to say that the NL has more awful teams, then sure, but that’s not the same thing. I would even argue those NL top teams are boosted by a weaker league.

For example, the top 5 NL teams i just listed above only have a 14-12 record (.539) vs. the AL. Meanwhile, those top 5 AL teams up there have an 18-10 record (.632) vs the NL.

LTP
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LTP
11 months 12 days ago

Interesting point.

I do notice there’s a tendency among some to equate W-L record parity with mediocrity. But as you’ve pointed out, using other metrics there are plenty of strong AL teams.

Matthew Murphy
Member
11 months 12 days ago

The major point is not that the AL is not strong, but that some of the teams that look to be the worst (Twins and Rangers) have had a strong start, and have a good shot at sitting around .500 by the trade deadline even if their performance begins to match their poor preseason expectations. Meanwhile, three of the four bottom teams (Red Sox, Indians, Mariners) projected to be top-4 in Win% the rest of the way, meaning that if they start playing as expected, they too will be right around .500 at the trade deadline.

Put another way, in the NL, there are 7 teams with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs. In the AL, every team has at least a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and only five teams have less than a 25% chance.

Matthew Murphy
Member
11 months 12 days ago

See the graphical representation below – using projected ROS Win% starting today, 11 of the 15 AL teams are projected to be within two games of .500 by the trade deadline (right around game 100. Take out the league leaders who are projected to be at least average the rest of the way (Royals, Yankees, Astros) and the A’s who are too far behind, and the other 11 teams are all converging on .500. Meanwhile, things are fanning out in the NL.

https://twitter.com/murphym45/status/609046200054980608

everdiso
Member
everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

Also, Dave, I noticed in yesterday’s chat that you called the AL East a “terrible” division.

Yet they have the best run diff, the best baserun diff, and the most projected depth chart war of any division in baseball….and by a good margin. 2nd in projected win%, too (2gms behind the NLC).

How can Mr.Fangraphs of all people call the AL East a terrible division?

Mr. Jones
Member
11 months 12 days ago

Dave makes a lot of these remarks in chats very tongue-in-cheek. I’m pretty sure he knows that the AL East is not actually terrible, but they have had some pretty bad results to date.

everdiso
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everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

have they? they’re above .500 and have the 3rd best record of any division.

and dave isn’t the only one calling them terrible. seems to have become a common thought this year. maybe due to bitter boston media.

John Thacker
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John Thacker
11 months 12 days ago

I’d just assume that a lot of people formed an opinion before the recent Blue Jays and Yankees winning streaks (among others), and haven’t quite updated yet.

everdiso
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everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

don’t listen to that fake everdiso, although I am flattered that someone would imitate me

Ryan
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Ryan
11 months 12 days ago

Cards are +63 not +36.

Careless
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Careless
11 months 11 days ago

None of those numbers are right. I don’t know what he’s looking at, but it’s not actual RS-RA

maguro
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maguro
11 months 11 days ago
ReuschelCakes
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ReuschelCakes
11 months 12 days ago

Interesting that Dave is bucking FG projections and assuming the Rangers won’t be sellers. Not sure that their assets are that attractive, but Beltre would move, Choo could move with salary relief and there is starting pitching that can be spread around to shore up the back ends of bad rotations or serve as middle bullpen… (Gallardo, Lewis, Detweiler, Wandy)

I’d love to see a Choo sale — would be great for a contender with needs in the OF and LHB and would reset Texas now that Hambone is back at a bargain rate (and Gallo needs a place, along with some others potentially)

Jason B
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Jason B
11 months 12 days ago

They would be footing a LOT of that bill to move Choo. Not saying they wouldn’t, or won’t, consider it, but they may decide to just keep him rather than pay half of his contract to move him for little return. (Especially when it looks like they benefited from the Angels rushing to move Hamilton for cents on the dollar, they don’t want to turn around and make that same rush to clear someone off the books only to watch Choo start hitting somewhere else while the Rangers are on the hook for a large portion of his salary.)

magichat#9
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magichat#9
11 months 12 days ago

Couldn’t selling be something different in the two-WC era? Qualitatively, maybe the buyers and sellers dynamic has changed significantly and now teams are in different positions. Think Philadelphia and Brewers: They would have been sellers a few years ago, but now are people who well sell for outstanding returns not just partial returns. I dunno…just a thought that the whole buyers/sellers thing didn’t seem to work out last year. Certainly for me, the Cespedes/Lester trade and the even the Price trade seemed to be smart exchanges, but not to be clear seller dynamics. Anywho.

Travis
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Travis
11 months 12 days ago

Could the Braves actually be buyers? Can’t imagine they’ll be looking to trade any of the guys they traded for this offseason, but they’d be in first place in the NL East right now with a better bullpen.

Mike
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Mike
11 months 12 days ago

I cannot realistically conceive of a scenario in which the Braves would be buyers. Already at this point in the season the Braves have far and away outpaced all projections and that still puts them at just under .500. All it will take is a little regression on Shelby Miller’s insane BaBIP or teams finally realizing that they don’t have to pitch to Freddie Freeman (seriously baffles me that more pitchers haven’t figured this out) and the Braves could begin to tailspin. As a Braves fan, I was really disappointed that Mike Minor couldn’t come back healthy and recreate the success of his 2013 campaign and thus be the last decent trading Chip the Braves had left.

Jason B
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Jason B
11 months 12 days ago

“they’d be in first place in the NL East right now with a better bullpen.”

Naw. Waaaay naw.

Anon21
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Anon21
11 months 12 days ago

It’s hardly out of the question, given that they’re only back 2 games now. That said, the fact that they are hanging around after two months’ worth of games doesn’t mean they actually have a good team, and I think the front office knows that. As Dave points out, though, they have few attractive assets that they’ll be willing to move, so I don’t expect them to be a major trade deadline player.

Jason B
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Jason B
11 months 12 days ago

They are definitely closer to the top, and doing better, than most folks reasonably expected; I was just pointing out that it’s disingenuous to say “If you removed this flaw, then THIS!” for one team but not do the same for everyone else.

It’s like those “Pitcher X would be 12-1 with a 0.58 ERA if you took out his worst six starts!” How much less helpful could that tidbit possibly be? And the answer is none. None more helpful.

Harriet
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Harriet
11 months 12 days ago

Although I agree that such arguments are a bit silly (because we can’t know a world in which what happened didn’t happen), it’s not equivalent to statistical cherry-picking.

Wuut
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Wuut
11 months 12 days ago

Assuming Atlanta r sellers, any reason they could sell Simmons? He’s still relatively young with a good contract but no one should be odd limits when selling.
At what point is the return good enough to trade away Simmons?

AG
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AG
11 months 12 days ago

Probably never

Anon21
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Anon21
11 months 12 days ago

There’s a point, but it’s not a point I think any of the contenders are going to reach. The Braves will want to sell based on his potential of developing into an above-average hitter with generational defensive talents; the buyers will have one eye on the possibility that his defensive value drops a lot as he gets closer to 30 and the stick never gets any better. Given that Simmons will still be around during the Braves’ target window for contention, I would be really surprised if a deal came together.

Max G
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11 months 12 days ago

Papelbon to the Jays?

Btw, no pitcher has recorded a save in the Jays last 18 wins. A curiosity that was touched on recently.

Mark
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Mark
11 months 12 days ago

The Jays don’t need a reliever as badly as you think. They need an OF now that Colabello has cooled down, and Carerra isn’t a starting LF. They need one more SP. The bullpen is good, with Cecil, Osuna, Hendriks, Loup (LOOGY, lower leverage stuff) and Delabar. They don’t desperately need Papelbon. What they need is a LF/SP. I’d be fine with Papelbon if the Jays had a bigger budget, but to me LF/SP is a bigger issue.

Chris K
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Chris K
11 months 12 days ago

Very interesting that this same author wrote an author on May 4 proposing that the White Sox blow up the team.

Jason B
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Jason B
11 months 12 days ago

He’s not saying they shouldn’t. Just that it’s currently looking unlikely given the way the AL standings have shaped up to date.

E_Baseball_LI5
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E_Baseball_LI5
11 months 12 days ago

Dave, it seems like you’re saying the reds are a “definite maybe.” I think, especially with the recent injuries, it’s pretty safe to remove that maybe.

WalDanInOLY
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WalDanInOLY
11 months 12 days ago

My projected sellers:

Obviously:
Phillies
Reds(post all star game)
A’s
Colorado
Brewers
D’Backs

Less obvious:
Marlins
Braves
Padres (crazy GM makes 20 new moves)
Orioles
White Sox(at least Samardizja)

Will wait till the deadline before realizing they should be sellers:
Indians
Mariners
Bosox

numbers don't lie
Guest
numbers don't lie
11 months 12 days ago

Everdiso,

Numbers don’t lie but you can lie with numbers. Going to the very source that your chastised, Fangraphs, and using the right number, runs differential, not baseruns of the top five teams are as follows:
TOR +59 —- STL +63
KCR +50 —- LAD +58
NYY +34 —- PIT +42
RAY +14 —- SFG +14
HOU +11 —- CHC +2

That’s right, it’s’ not just hitting, it’s also pitching that decided who wins the game. That being said, I agree that it is not really clear. It’s amazing how flawed arguments can easily be right, as long as the flaw is not fatal. Even based on a more proper run differential comparison, the NL is not any better than the AL– unless one factors in the pundit wisdom that the Nats (-1) are a great team and Toronto, the Yankees and Houston are overachieving. SOoo, if we take our sweetheart teams of LAD, STL (OK, we don’t like them but they just keep playing really well– at least in the win and run differential columns), the Nats (we all know they are really good even if they never seem to prove it in the playoffs–after all they have Harper and Strasburg), the Giants who can’t decide if they are more annoying than STL, and the Cubs, who are going to be great soon–just ask any true Cubs fan who waxes poetic about Ron Santo , Ryne Sandburg, Andre Dawson, Steve Bartman–and it is clear that the NL is much better than some Canadian team, the Missouri baseball stepchild, a team who lost their manager genius to the Cubs, and the evil empire whose best player is a guy they don’t even want, even though he insists on breaking career records on almost a weekly basis.

All said and done, that is why they play them and arm chair analysis ultimately only affects the wear and tear on the chair.

But please, use the right stats– unless you were just talking about position players-= in which event you need to adjust for the DH effect.

everdiso
Member
everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

not sure what you’re arguing here?

baserun differential is generally accepted here as more telling than run differential.

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

don’t listen to fake everdiso

Ryno Grace
Guest
Ryno Grace
11 months 12 days ago

SANDBERG

Philip
Guest
Philip
11 months 12 days ago

I’m sure some AL teams will fall out of it and become sellers, twins could really nose dive.

Candidates:
Twins
Rangers
White Sox

Squirrel
Guest
Squirrel
11 months 12 days ago

Cargo for Bonilla?

everdiso
Guest
everdiso
11 months 12 days ago

It’s unlikely Mets would go for that since Bonilla costs the same in the next 15 years as Cargo does only this season

TWTW
Member
11 months 11 days ago

The Indians being sellers looks inevitable at this point. I think basically everyone besides the top 4 pitchers, Kipnis, Brantley, Urshela and Lindor could be for sale.

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