A Very Current Statistical Report on the Arizona Fall League

The author has published each of the last four weeks (One, Two, Three, Four), in these pages, a statistical report on the Arizona Fall League not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows, for the pleasure of the readership, is the fifth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report.

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Very Current SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Hitters
Below is the very current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player MLB Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Thomas La Stella Braves 24 66 1 13 4 1.7% 15.8% 6.1% 143
Matt Skole Nationals 23 48 3 13 10 3.1% 17.4% 20.9% 135
Jared Mitchell White Sox 24 59 3 11 10 2.9% 14.7% 17.0% 133
Michael Ohlman Orioles 22 29 2 9 4 2.7% 15.8% 17.5% 132
Henry Urrutia Orioles 26 53 2 5 4 2.4% 10.3% 9.1% 129
Mitchell Haniger Brewers 22 81 3 10 12 2.7% 11.9% 14.8% 126
Dustin Garneau Rockies 25 41 3 7 8 3.1% 13.0% 20.0% 124
C.J. Cron Angels 23 57 3 5 8 3.0% 9.9% 14.4% 124
Pratt Maynard Dodgers 23 15 1 4 0 2.2% 12.9% 15.7% 122
Andrew Susac Giants 23 42 1 10 7 1.9% 15.5% 18.0% 121

Very Current SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Pitchers
Below is the very current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the AFL. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player MLB Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Jeff Urlaub Athletics 26 8 0 9.0 32 13 1 29.9% 9.5% 71
Nick Wittgren Marlins 22 9 0 9.2 36 13 2 28.7% 9.8% 76
Angel Baez Royals 22 6 0 9.2 47 16 6 29.7% 11.5% 77
Cam Bedrosian Angels 21 5 0 5.1 22 9 1 27.2% 10.1% 81
Jonas Dufek Astros 25 6 0 8.1 34 11 2 26.5% 9.9% 82
Dominic Leone Mariners 21 8 0 9.0 38 11 1 25.3% 9.1% 83
Alex Meyer Twins 23 5 5 17.1 72 18 5 25.0% 9.3% 84
Zachary Thornton Pirates 25 8 0 11.2 44 12 2 24.9% 9.3% 85
Drew Hutchison Blue Jays 22 4 4 15.2 57 14 2 23.9% 8.5% 85
Seth Frankoff Athletics 24 9 0 9.1 39 11 2 25.0% 9.6% 85

On the Absence of Kris Bryant from the Batting Leaderboard
After demonstrating considerable power this year as a collegiate player at the University of San Diego and then again, in his first season as a professional, with both Low-A Boise and High-A Daytona, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant has continued to demonstrate considerable power with the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL, hitting a league-best six home runs in just 64 plate appearances. Why he’s absent from the batting leaderboard is because home-run rate becomes reliable in a larger sample than do either walk or strikeout rate. As a result, regression acts more strongly upon it (i.e. home-run rate) by the methodology utilized here. Bryant ranks 13th among 106 AFL batters to have recorded a plate appearance, with a 117 SCOUT+ — just ahead of organizational colleague Albert Almora, actually.

Bo Schultz Watch
One could be excused for not considering Arizona right-hander Bo Schultz a prospect proper, on account of he (i.e. Schultz) was undrafted out of college, has been in the minors for six years already, and just turned 28 years old. That said, he’s spent the majority of the AFL season on the pitching leaderboard here and also, according to PITCHf/x data from Brooks Baseball, has been sitting at 94-95 mph with his fastball. His most recent start (on November 1st) wasn’t his most impressive, it appears. To wit: 5.0 IP, 21 TBF, 2 K, 3 BB, 5 H, 0, HR.

Other Starting Pitchers
The pitching leaderboard, as one can see here, is populated largely by relievers, owing to their naturally more impressive per-inning stats. After Alex Meyer (Minnesota) and Drew Hutchison (Toronto), who make the top 10 on their own merits, one finds the next three starters, in order: Samuel Solis (Washington, 88 SCOUT-), the aforementioned Bo Schultz (Arizona, 89 SCOUT-), and Brandon Maurer (Seattle, 89 SCOUT-).




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


4 Responses to “A Very Current Statistical Report on the Arizona Fall League”

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  1. Aaron (UK) says:

    Matt Skole is currently hitting .184/.392/.447

    Quite the stat line.

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  2. yaboynate says:

    Steamer’s projection of La Stella is interesting. He apparently can do quite a bit with 1 PA.

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  3. baycommuter says:

    Probably not a fluke. Jeff Urlaub had a 59K/9BB performance in A/A+ in 2012 and was 40/13 at AA in 2013.

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