Adrian Beltre Is Partying Like It’s 2004
After hitting 44 home runs in 2002 and 2003 combined, Adrian Beltre launched 48 home runs in 2004, putting together one of the great seasons any third baseman has ever had. Because his monster season seemingly “came out of nowhere” (despite the fact that he was considered an elite prospect and reached the majors as a teenager), and because he wasn’t able to sustain that kind of offensive performance in Seattle, that year is often referred to as one of the great flukes in baseball history. It is common to hear people point to it as evidence of the “contract year” phenomenon or suggest that he starting used steroids in order to get himself a big paycheck in free agency.
For those people, though, 2011 is becoming a bit of a problem, because Adrian Beltre is doing it again.
In 2004, 7.1% of Beltre’s plate appearances (including the postseason) resulted in a home run. In 2011, 6.4% of Beltre’s plate appearances have resulted in a home run, a rate just slightly less than what he put up in his “fluke” year. If you give him the same number of plate appearances as he had in 2004, he’d have 43.4 home runs this year, just 4.6 fewer than his breakout season.
It gets even better. Because of the offensive downturn of the last several years, home runs are no longer as common now as they were back then. Relative to the average hitter in the National League in 2004, Beltre’s HR/PA ratio was 151% above average – this year, it’s 145% above average.
It’s not really a fluke if you do it twice. It’s not really a contract year push when you do it immediately after signing a long term deal that doesn’t expire until 2016. It’s just evidence of what’s been true all along – Adrian Beltre is one of the best players in baseball.
The first time he did it in a cavern in LA. Now he’s doing it playing half his games in a ballpark that is 50% easier to hit a home run in than the average park:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
That MIGHT explain the 23/9 home/road HR split that Beltre has
Arlington isn’t nearly as friendly to right handed pull hitters as it is to lefties.
A funny thing is that his season in Boston is also used to justify the contract year effect, even though that was a 1 year deal. He had to sign a 1 year deal because he was awful and hurt in his previous contract year.
Except he wasn’t awful.
Oh sh-
Another thing that’s been true all along? Hitting in Safeco sucks.
Especially when you are right handed.
And your name isn’t Edgar…or even Bret Boone.
pretty amazing how consistently guys who make it to the bigs as a teenager turn into superstars
Prime example of selection bias.
Prime example of trying to sound smart
Correlation is not the same as causation.
The truth in regards to Beltre’s power could be somewhere in the middle.
04 could still be viewed at somewhat flukish given his environment, as compared to his current environment.
All things considered he may never approach the power he showed in LA while still being one of the best players in the game.
It also illustrates a secondary situation in regards to SEA being able to attract power hitting free agents.
This is where park neutral stats are very interesting. It’s also interesting to see how era neutralized stats work out. We see seasons like Yaz and Pedro in a whole new light.
Right, because his 161 wRC+ in 2004 still easily bests his wRC+ this season, which is 134.
In general, I’d say that a 23.3% HR/FB rate is incredibly fluky. Beltre has been an excellent baseball player, and will have a great career before it’s all over, but the season in which he put “together of the great seasons any third baseman has ever had” will probably remain an outlier.
Yep. This article needed less words and more wRC+.
Adrian Beltre finding success and people recognizing him is the best thing that has happened in the last two years. He will always be my favorite ex-Mariner.
Beltre = Norm Cash rookie year, he may be better than his Mariner years but he will never be close to that season again.
Correction for accuracy, it was not Norm Cash’s rookie year when he hit the lottery.
He’s been solid to great this year, no doubt, but that’s about as far as an comparison to 2004 can go. He was a 10.1 WAR player that year. In 2011, the year you’re drawing a comparison to, he was a 5.2 player. 5.2 is great, don’t get me wrong, but really…he’s nowhere near the “fluke” of 2004…which is not to say the “contract year effect” folks out there should be paid attention to, either. Because he still was a great player.
Bravo, Adrian.
::Head rub::
Has anyone written an article about the “fluke” years in baseball?? A lot of players have had injuries that curtailed greatness, but some guys just have one really great year and never approach that greatness again. Examples, Sal Bando in 1969, Zoilio Versalles in 1965, Norm Cash in 1961, Willie Magee in 1985.
I wrote a Community Post about the greatest single seasons by non-HOFers not too long ago w/r/t Jose Bautista.
How long before we start debating whether or not Adrian Beltre is a HOFer?
Just had the convo with my brother after reading this. We agree that 5 years with an average of 4 WAR should do it. 75 career WAR is normally gets you in comfortably, but he’ll likely need every bit of it since a lot of his value is tied to his defense.
20 WAR in 5 years? lolz.
jim edmonds. andruw jones. scott rolen. (rightly or wrongly, i’d short their chances pretty hard, no?) > adrian beltre
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=970&playerid3=639&playerid4=1153&playerid5=96
Slartibartfast-
I sincerely doubt HOF voters will use the construct of WAR as their basis for evaluation.
Another factor whether saber-fans like it or not is post-season performance. I think there are some that view post-season performance as being significant factors in HoF consideration, for players that are on the line.
The 3-HR game likely wipes out the 5-28 performance he’s had up to this point.
That’s where a guy like Edmonds could get a bump. The highlight catches + the playoff homers.
WAR is likely Beltre’s only shot. Who knows how WAR will be viewed 10 years from now. Certainly progress is being made … and progress can come in big bursts depending on voter turnover and publicity of certain metrics.
1 2nd in MVP vote
2 All-Stars
2 Gold Gloves
2 Silver Sluggers
Compare to Scott Rolen’s ROY, Top 5 MVP, 7 All-Stars, 8 Gold Gloves … and only saberists really view Scottie as a legit HoF candidate (unfortunately).
Rolen 66 brWAR, 74 fWAR. To us, Rolen is a solid vote in.
Beltre needs a big next 5 years with some post-season notoriety (probably).
Career wRC+ (Some 3B in the Hall of Fame)
Mike Schmidt: 146
Eddie Matthews: 143
George Brett: 133
Wade Boggs: 131
Brooks Robinson: 105
Career wRC+ (Some 3B not in the Hall of Fame)
Ron Santo: 125
Ron Cey: 121
Troy Glaus: 119
Doug DeCinces: 114
Craig Nettles: 111
Adrian Beltre: 109
Well, maybe I’m kidding myself, but I’d like to think that HOF voters eventually become interested in the fact that there are so few 3Bs in the Hall, and decide to correct this problem by voting in some of the top few 3Bs who aren’t in but probably should be. Particularly when you have a 3B who is brand spankin’ new on the ballot, which Beltre will be in, oh, around 2021.
Anyway, here are the top 21 3B of all time, according to Fangraphs WAR:
1 Alex Rodriguez 112.5
2 Mike Schmidt 110.6
3 Eddie Mathews 107.2
4 Wade Boggs 94.8
5 Brooks Robinson 94.6
6 George Brett 91.6
7 Chipper Jones 87.5
8 Ron Santo 79.3
9 Paul Molitor 75.3
10 Scott Rolen 73.9
11 Graig Nettles 71.8
12 Darrell Evans 67.9
13 Buddy Bell 66.6
14 Home Run Baker 65.8
15 Ken Boyer 63.3
16 Sal Bando 62.7
17 Robin Ventura 61.2
18 Tommy Leach 60.8
19 Stan Hack 59.0
20 Bob Elliott 56.2
21 Adrian Beltre 56.1
The top seven guys on this list are either already in or will for sure get in. #8 on the list, Ron Santo, is at or near the top of every single “Guys who aren’t in the HOF but should be” list, and I’d like to think he eventually gets voted in by the Veterans’ Committee. #9 Molitor probably spent as much time DHing as playing in the field but he’s nonetheless on this list and in the HOF.
Starting with #10 on this list, Rolen, we find a group of guys who are mostly NOT in. Only Home Run Baker (from #10 to #21) is in the HOF.
Anyway, seems to me that Adrian Beltre has an extremely realistic shot at getting to 70 WAR or close to it, which gets him very close to Scott Rolen, whose career seems to be winding down. This means that we will have HOF voters who are MAYBE thinking that 3Bs are underrepresented in the HOF and here are two big name guys who rank (with Nettles) RIGHT behind the top nine guys on this list, all of whom (except Santo) are HOFers. And HOF voters are at least looking at these WAR rankings, which results in the idea that Rolen and Beltre both deserve serious consideration being planted in their minds. In any event, here is the scenario wherein Rolen and Beltre get in. [And, with any luck, maybe the veterans' committee votes Nettles in, too, within the next ten years or so.]
One caveat: I will say that Beltre is very liable to end up at #12 on this list, displacing Darrell Evans. Which means that Beltre winds up JUST ahead of Darrell Evans and Buddy Bell. And I don’t see either of these guys ever getting into the Hall of Fame. Evans and Bell each received the same number of votes (8) the first and only time either was on the ballot (in 1995) So there’s that. Maybe Beltre = Evans & Bell, which means he’s not HOF material in the eyes of voters.
while the historical references are nice, you have to remember that he’ll be principly competing against not only the chipper/arod*/rolen generation but the as-yet-unwritten one of longoria/zimmerman/wright(?).
then again, life is long and opinions change. he puts up 20 WAR in the next 5 years and rolen (or edmonds or jones) get in on the first few ballots, the complexion of the convo changes. until then, though, IMO he’s a guy with a plus-glove and a wRC+ less than aramis ramirez.
in other words, underrated (yes!) but far from trancendental.
@Robbie G
That’s almost exactly the exercise we did, and how we came to the 75 WAR conclusion.
@Dwayne
I didn’t comment on the likelihood of him reaching 75 WAR, just that it’s a number that he’d need to hit to be seriously considered.
@Romo
I believe that prognostication is a bit shortsighted… but as it is, WAR itself, whether or not voters cite it when casting ballots, is a very good HOF guideline. If he were to slap together a string of seasons like 5/5/4/4/3 WAR to finish his career, that would certainly make him look like a decent candidate to anyone.
@CC
True… all of his traditional stats are sub HOF, and will remain so even with a late career 20 WAR surge.
“Beltre needs a big next 5 years with some post-season notoriety (probably).”
I think you summed it up nicely.
@The Joe
Yes, that list is somewhat illuminating, however, his HOF is predicated on him continuing to be 2010-2011 Adrian Beltre who owns a 140/134 wRC+. So, IF we pencil him in for 140, 135, 130, 125, 120, (which is very, very optimistic – but again, this is the HOF scenario) then his career wRC+ looks much more palatable, especially for one of the best fielding 3B of all time (probably top 3)
Here’s a hypothetical:
He plays seven more seasons and retires at 39.
He needs to average 139 hits per season to get to 3000.
For reference, (for what it’s worth, there are a few issues with this approach) he currently averages 168 hits per 162 games. So he would need to average roughly 132 games per season at his career rate to hit 3000.
(Some issues – he is getting older and should be declining, so extrapolating like this isn’t great. BUT the past two years he is garnering hits at a much higher rate than his career… so maybe this gives us a decent guess.)
So, we have a top 3/4/5 fielding 3B in history, with 3000 hits and 400 HR (if not 450), and 75 WAR. Doesn’t look quite as shabby now.
The “contract year” year stuff exists for two basic reasons, [1] History/Observations, and [2] human nature.
I just referred to the Between The Number’s chapter on “contract years” and the research indicates that players in their walk year do perform 10% better than they do in the year before or after. So, there is some sabermetric basis to the idea.
From a human nature standpoint, it could be called common sense. A player entering their walk year may put in more work during the off-season, may be more likely to play through an injury, or may just try harder … even if the team is out of contention. The research shows that on average a player in his walk year plays/pitches about ~7% more than they do in the year before or after the walk year. There is some statistical basis for the notion.
Beltre becomes the picture boy because of [1] the ‘drasticness’ of his 2004 season, and [2] the expectations people had of him in Seattle in 2005. The difference between the two contributed to the perception that he wasn’t doing as much as he could. Any player that plays through a “fractured testicle” earns my benefit of the doubt in terms of where his heart is.
Because of things we don’t, perhaps can’t, know about the 2004 season, I don’t think we can confidently say what Beltre did or did not do in 2004 that contributed to that season. Given that benefits of steroid use are recovery and/or increased power, and given the time period we’re talking about, steroid use could be a natural conclusion … fair or not (accurate or not). So, I would not feel confident making a declarative statement one way or the other.
I do, however, tend to agree with BTN’s conclusion that Beltre’s career year just happened to be a walk year, and his drastic decrease in 2005 may lead us to some faulty conclusions.
Regardless, Beltre’s continued performance an an all-star level has done some to erase that notion.
I suppose the same thing could be said of Lance Berkman this year with the Cardinals, as it was rumored that he wasn’t in very good shape in 2010.
Adrian Beltre Home: 23HR in 242PA (9.5%)
Adrian Beltre Away: 9HR in 283PA (3.2%)
If looking at HR rates against league average, clearly ballpark has to be taken into account when his rate at home is 3X that on the road. It’s obviously not all park effect, but the splits shouldn’t be ignored
Beltre is one of my favorite players.
I often wonder how his early career would have played out without the terribly botched appendectomy after his age 21 season. Sometimes the long term impact of injuries can be overstated, but it is hard to ignore the drastic change in Beltre after that offseason. He lost a ton of weight, and at an age where power usually starts to take off, his regressed. Maybe more importantly, his approach at the plate completely collapsed. In both his age 20 and 21 seasons, Beltre posted a walk rate approaching 10%. The next year it dropped to 5.4%, and he still hasn’t come close to matching the rate he posted in back to back seasons at age 20 and 21.
Of course, the appendectomy can’t be blamed for all of this, but I am left wondering how his early-mid 20s might have played out differently. He is a player who put up 9 WAR before turning 22. He eventually went on to have one of the greatest seasons by any 3B, ever, and a handful of other incredible seasons. It’s a shame that whatever the cause, he probably had a few too many lost years offensively to ultimately be remembered for the great player that he is.
Beltre’s walk rate is weird all the way around. His last couple years in the minors, he walked over 10% of the time, and had more walks than strikeouts. Hell, he walked more times as an 18 year old in the FSL than he has in any MLB season…and he only played 123 games that year. Why his plate discipline reverted so much is really a mystery.
While I’m looking at it, Beltre really was a ridiculous prospect. Mike Trout, BA’s minor league player of the year, hit AA as a 19 year old just like Beltre did. Difference is, Beltre walked more, struck out about half as much, was a more successful base runner (20 SB and 83% success rate), and hit for more power. Just a ridiculous prospect.
The best part about adrian beltre is that he would be a starting 3b regardless of his wRC+
Kind of surprised the discussion turned to absolute fluke seasons without Brady Anderson’s name popping up somewhere.
Most just assume Anderson was on roids so his random year isin’t as random as the rest.
Also the person saying he has 5.2Vs10War he missed time, with the 30games to get him to 154 for the year his total would be a good deal higher. not 10 by anymeans but a good deal closer
Reason i don’t see his season as a “fluke” persay is most of the people on that list or most of the one great season lists don’t have multiple MVP Quality seasons. Last year in Boston he was a top 3 player in the AL, the walk year in LA and this year if he played the full year were all MVP consideration seasons.
I honestly cant see why any right handed power hitter would EVER take a contract in Seattle ever again. Even if they overpay if you have any chance at a contract after this one it destroys your value. Unless its Jayson Werth cashing in at 32 for the last one of your career i don’t see any situation where its not stupid.
When a desperate Derrek Lee laughs at the idea of playing in SEA … you know that no big power hitting star is going to SEA (in their prime).
Adrian Beltre is so good that he lied and said he was older then he really was.
Usually it’s the other way around.
Did he? That’s pretty awesome
The difference between Beltre and Rolen/Jones/Edmonds is that Adrian Beltre still has a lot left in his career and will pile up massive hit totals and HR totals- things the voters look at- in addition to an awesome career WAR- a thing I care about- and has the 2nd place MVP/10 WAR season, and now back-to-back awesome MVP caliber seasons for prominent teams. Whether or not we want to admit it, Adrian Beltre has a very good chance to wind up in the Hall of Fame
I really think we underestimate the offensive killing power to righthanders that that stadium is in Seattle. A year before and every season since Seattle this guy has been one of the better bats in the league! His approach is no different. Only his home stadiums have changed.
Yep, and when I was saying I wanted the Dodgers to get him every year from 06-11 other Dodger fans didn’t understand why. None of them understood how bad the 3rd base famine would be. Pre 2010 one smart Dodger fan even compared Beltre to Pedro Feliz. The Dodger’s and Adrian Beltre were meant to be, yet McCourt would not allow a free agent signing over 3 years in length….and now they have Juan Uribe……
Though I must note, before the season Dave Cameron said that he thought the Uribe contract was a better signing than the Beltre one.
This is one of the most biased articles I’ve read on this site. The idea that Adrian Beltre has always been “one of the best players in baseball” is beyond demonstrably false; it’s patently absurd. Most seasons he’s a good player – sometimes, not so good. The last two seasons he played like an all-star, and seven years ago he had a monster HOF season – and yes, it was in a contract year before steroid testing began, and the next year he immediately reverted to his usual level of okay-ness.
Ranking Beltre’s seasos by WAR
9.9
7
5.7
4.9
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.3
2.9
2.7(injury)
2.4
1.2
So 5 “okay-ness” level seasons, 5 good seasons, and 3 excellent seasons. Is that one of the best in baseball? If you take into consideration the offensive enviornment in Seattle then it’s possible. Dave clearly does, that doesn’t mean he has bias.
wow his WAR numbers are kind of underwhelming when it comes to the HOF (these factor in defense/uzr, right?) and especially so when compared to his 3b contemporaries.
Take out the one monster season and he really drops down the list of cumulative WAR. I’m not sure one monster season and the rest very good equal HOF.
In reference to the HoF arguement brought up earlier. Anyone notice he is on pace for 3000 hits and 500 homers? However he is viewed as a “lazy” player….so I wonder how his HoF debate will go
pretty sure even the smallest-hall defender believes 3000/500 (with + defense to boot) without a whiff of steroids gets you in on the first ballot, no matter what “lazy” narrative is tossed his way.
This article is about power, not RC+. His RC+ isn’t that impressive because his walk rate is much lower, irrelevant of his power. It’s roughly half the 2004 level.
Also RC doesn’t take into account handedness, so it’s penalizing him for a “hitter friendly” park in Texas, when it’s not that friendly toward Righties.
The park adjustment in wRC+ doesnt account for handedness?
It doesn’t, as far as I know, since players can have different batted ball profiles. As far as I’m concerned, park adjustments are 2nd on my list of “issues with the current implementation of WAR” behind UZR.
dang.
Would people please stop saying this? That ballpark is massively friendly towards righties. Massively. 2011 Numbers only from the starters:
Michael Young: home OPS .931, Road .776
Nelson Cruz: home .953, Road .688
Beltre: home OPS 1.078, Road .737
Kinsler: home .933 Road .730
Andrus: home .674, Road .741 (look, one counter example!)
Napoli: home 1.011 Road 1.078 (another counter example, and what happened to this guy this year?)
Torrealba: home .827, Road .587
So Beltre is +.340, and four other guys are +.150 to +.270. Napoli and Andrus were a bit better on the Road. I’ll go out on a limb and call Texas a great place for all hitters, RHers included.
what’s the normal H/R split advantage? (is there one?)
ps kudos to texas for building a roster to exploit this
Did you notice how Kinsler had the same amount of homers at home and on the road? His splits are BABIP related. MY probably does benefit from Arlington.
There is a “normal” home/road advantage, this year in MLB it was about 0.030. Texas is set up to have the most extreme split (aside from Colorado, maybe), because aside from playing in an extreme hitters park, the divisional rivals are in pitchers parks.
I wasn’t taking issue with Texas being more homer-friendly to lefties than righties, but “Also RC doesn’t take into account handedness, so it’s penalizing him for a “hitter friendly” park in Texas, when it’s not that friendly toward Righties;”. Some of the splits may be BABIP-related, but they are consistent year after year (even though this year was the highest in a while).
Another data point – Texas MVPs in that stadium – Gonzalez, A. Rodriguez, I. Rodriguez, Hamilton. Three righties, getting a substantial home boost (the SS playing Rodriguez likely deserved the MVP anyway). Texas hitters on both sides need to looked at like Colorado hitters, with giant grains of salt. As joshcohen mentioned, good on the team for building to suit the park.
Beltre is going to be a poster boy for how hard it is to evaluate players without looking at park factors. Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers? Not a “normal” stadium to be had there for a guy who profiles like him. His good years in Seattle look a lot different than his good year in Texas, but he’s the same guy. 2004 still looks odd though.
That is a great observation and statement.
We’ve known for some years that TEX is a great hitting ballpark. We’ve also known that OAK and SEA are extreme pitchers parks. Play a lot of your games in those places, and your right … they are set up for huge home/road splits.
I think the better performance in walk year effect might be closer related to not playing through an injury rather than the opposite. Very few play better when injured!