ALDS Game Two Preview: Texas

It was a nice win for the Rangers today and they look to go up 2-0 with another win tomorrow. The only major change from game one to game two is that James Shields and C.J. Wilson get the call as the starters.

One knock against Shields is that he has been inconsistent this season. To see how consistent Shield’s and Wilson’s starts were across the season, I decided to graph both starter’s Game Scores from best to worst.

shieldWilsonGraph

Wilson has put up better Game Scores across the entire season when compared to Shield’s starts. Wilson had fifteen Game Scores over sixty, while Shields only put up six over sixty. Besides have more good games, Wilson’s bottom 5 performances don’t drop off like Shield’s bottom 5.

Each game that a starter does better, he gives he team a better chance of winning, no matter if he offically gets the win or the loss. Here are the team’s Win/Loss records when each pitcher pitched to a certain level of Game Score:

shieldWilsonGSchart

The pitcher’s team usually won when the pitcher was able to achieve a game score of 56 or higher. If Shields can post Game Scores like his regular season numbers, he has about a 25% chance of throwing a great game, 50% of the time the game will be a toss up and 25% of the time it will be clunker. Wilson on the other hand had 50% of his game great, 30% in the toss up range and 20% in the bottom range. Shields season was consistently inconsistent over the season, while Wilson was generally consistently good.

The chances for the Rangers to win tomorrow’s game look good considering the scheduled pitchers. The Rays need to hope the “Good” Shields shows up to have a chance to even up the series.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


2 Responses to “ALDS Game Two Preview: Texas”

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  1. My echo and bunnymen says:

    Reminds me of a Modest Mouse lyric

    How can someone inconsistent mess-up so consistently?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. xeifrank says:

    Win probabilities:

    Favorite: Rays
    Vegas: 53.38%
    My Simulator: 48.86%
    AccuScore: 49%

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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