ALDS Preview: Tigers-Yankees
The Yankees and Tigers square off in the Bronx tonight (the Yankees always seem to end up with the night game, don’t they?) with what should be the marquee pitching matchup of the Division Series — Justin Verlander versus CC Sabathia. Here’s a fun fact: both pitchers are very good. A second fun fact: you should be excited to watch them. But you didn’t click on this story to read that — you already knew that. So let’s get into the stuff you did come here to read, shall we?
When the Tigers are at bat:
| Tigers Hitters | Yankees Fielders | Yankees Starters | ||
| 1. Austin Jackson | Starting Pitcher –> | LHP CC Sabathia | ||
| 2. Wilson Betemit# | C Russell Martin | RHP Ivan Nova | ||
| 3. Delmon Young | 1B Mark Teixeira | RHP Freddy Garcia | ||
| 4. Miguel Cabrera | 2B Robinson Cano | |||
| 5. Victor Martinez# | 3B Alex Rodriguez | |||
| 6. Alex Avila* | SS Derek Jeter | |||
| 7. Jhonny Peralta | LF Brett Gardner | |||
| 8. Magglio Ordonez | CF Curtis Granderson | |||
| 9. Ryan Raburn | RF Nick Swisher |
Fun fact: The Tigers top four hitters by wRAA were better than the Yankees’ top four by nearly 17 runs. That has a lot to do with Miguel Cabrera of course, but it’s a quick example of how he isn’t going at this alone. The Tigers also got good-to-great seasons from Alex Avila, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta. But unfortunately, it takes awhile to get to them, as the composition of Jim Leyland’s lineup has been far from optimal — and that’s giving him the benefit of the doubt in batting Wilson Betemit second, as Ordonez has batted second with semi-regularity down the stretch. It would be a mistake to bat Ordonez second. First, Ordonez was dreadful this year — he had an OBP of .300 or better for only 12 days this season. Second, this is a pretty right-handed lineup, and Betemit has more late-inning value batting in the two-hole, as he will make it more difficult for Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi to play matchups.
There is the chance, of course, that Ordonez only plays in the CC Sabathia game(s) of the series. Just as it was during the season, second base, third base and right field could be revolving doors throughout the series. No matter the permutations though, the lineup will skew both right-handed and to the dancing-Molina-brother side of the speed scale — the Tigers attempted the fewest stolen bases in the Majors this year, and it wasn’t close. Now, you might say, no big deal, the Tigers were eighth in ISO, they can just take and rake, right? Well, Leyland didn’t see it that way, as only two American League teams sacrificed more than did Detroit. Leading the sac bunt parade was Austin Jackson, who tied for sixth in the Majors (non-pitcher division). Don’t expect that to stop in the ALDS, as Alex Rodriguez can be best described as rickety at this point, and Mark Teixeira, while a good fielder overall, has never been a good fielder of bunts (-1 rBU this year, -7 career).
A-Rod isn’t a bad fielder overall either, which is more than can be said for Jeter. He is the Yankees’ liability on D. Granderson and Cano get mixed reviews, though personally I tend to side with how they have been graded in this year’s Fans Scouting Report, which is to say above-average but not elite. That description seems apt for the whole team as well, there are no major weaknesses outside of Jeter.
As I outlined on Tuesday, the Yankees are going to go to war with Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia. There was some hub bub this week about Garcia’s track record against Detroit, but that is mostly nonsense. Much of the good portion of his track record was built on the 1999 and 2005 seasons, and newsflash — these Detroit Tigers look nothing like those teams. Having said that, Garcia and Nova are pretty good matchups versus the Tigers. Both throw sliders — a pitch that has been the Tigers’ aggregate achilles heel — and neither flash their changeup as much as A.J. Burnett does, which works out well in this series. The Tigers, as a team, mercilessly crush changeups — their 1.95 wCH/C mark was the highest mark for any one team against any one pitch this year.
Hidden Talent: Wilson Betemit vs. RHP
In 99 plate appearances with the Tigers, Betemit stroked righties for an impressive .396 wOBA. With the Yankees only carrying two left-handed pitchers on their staff, Betemit won’t have to subbed much for offensive reasons, and if he is able to continue that production, he will make life difficult on New York.
Key Player: Ryan Raburn
Big things were expected of Raburn this year, and on the whole, you’d have to say he didn’t deliver on them. But after a dreadful first half, Raburn caught fire in the second half, hitting .341/.393/.574 after the break. Even with the hot streak, Leyland remained skeptical, as Raburn didn’t play every day down the stretch. For the season, Raburn has been much more effective against lefties than righties, so there is the concern that he will play right into the Yankees’ hands, but his performance likely makes or breaks the lineup. If he produces, Leyland can ride his hot hand. If he doesn’t, there isn’t another player on the roster capable of his type of power from the keystone.
When the Yankees are at-bat
| Yankees Hitters | Tigers Fielders | Tigers Starters | ||
| 1. Derek Jeter | Starting Pitcher –> | RHP Justin Verlander | ||
| 2. Curtis Granderson* | C Alex Avila | RHP Doug Fister | ||
| 3. Robinson Cano* | 1B Miguel Cabrera | RHP Max Scherzer | ||
| 4. Alex Rodriguez | 2B Ryan Raburn | RHP Rick Porcello | ||
| 5. Mark Teixeira# | 3B Wilson Betemit | |||
| 6. Nick Swisher# | SS Jhonny Peralta | |||
| 7. Jorge Posada# | LF Delmon Young | |||
| 8. Russell Martin | CF Austin Jackson | |||
| 9. Brett Gardner* | RF Magglio Ordonez |
This season, 28 teams saw 24,229 pitches or less, and two teams saw at least 600 more than that. One of those teams is trying to pin their failures on the best manager their team has ever seen or ever will see. The other is the Yankees. But while the Yankees are a patient lot, the strength of the four Tigers who will comprise their postseason rotation has been their efficiency, so it’s strength against strength, which is just how October should be.
Whereas the Tigers’ lineup tilts righty, the Yankees’ is perfectly balanced — three righties, three lefties and three switch-hitters. The biggest weakness in the Yankees’ lineup this series will be Derek Jeter. While Jeter has come on in the second half, he has been stepping-in-a-pool-of-soda-in-a-dark-movie-theater-while-wearing-flip-flops bad against righties the past two seasons. In 939 plate appearances against them, Jeter is a woeful .231/.321/.327. And since the Tigers have nothing but right-handed starters this is going to be an issue, especially with Jeter firmly ensconced at the top of the lineup. Elsewhere, A-Rod got back on track in September, so he should be fine.
What may not be fine is the Tigers’ defense. With Avila, Peralta and Jackson, Detroit is strong up the middle, but elsewhere they could be in some trouble — Raburn at second, Betemit at third, Ordonez in right and Young in left were all at least five runs below average this year. Again, much of this will depend on how and how much Leyland mixes and matches. One area where the Tigers will be able to hang tough is the running game. While the Yanks were the sixth-most efficient team in trying to steal bases, Avila had the ninth-best caught stealing percentage (min. 600 innings caught). But at the end of the day, the key will simply be whether or not the Tigers’ pitchers can keep the Yankees off the base paths.
Hidden Talent: Curtis Granderson vs. LHP
I don’t think it’s possible for the Yankees to have a hidden talent, but if there is one, it’s Granderson against lefties. With Girardi moving the always-red-hot-in-the-second-half Cano to the three-hole, it puts two lefties back-to-back in the lineup, something that Leyland is likely to try to exploit late in games. That might have been a good strategy in past years when Granderson couldn’t hit lefties, but this season Granderson has touched them for a sterling .400 wOBA.
Key Player: Russell Martin
Martin sizzled out of the gate this year, but despite a brief return to competence in August, he has mostly fizzled. The good news for Yankees’ fans is that he has been better against righties this year. He is going to play because of his defense, but if he can’t hit, he could create a big escape hatch for Tigers’ pitchers at 8-9-1 in the lineup, and may compromise some of Girardi’s flexibility in how he deploys Jesus Montero.
Benches and Bullpens
| Tigers Bench | Tigers Bullpen | |
| OF Andy Dirks* | CL Jose Valverde | |
| 3B Brandon Inge | RHP Joaquin Benoit | |
| UT Don Kelly* | RHP Al Alburquerque | |
| IF Ramon Santiago# | LHP Phil Coke | |
| C Omir Santos | LHP Daniel Schlereth | |
| RHP Ryan Perry | ||
| RHP David Pauley |
Every member of the Tigers’ bench — Omir Santos excepted — is likely to get, if not a start, then a good chunk of playing time. Raburn only finished about 60% of the games that he started, and Ordonez only 26%, so defensive caddying may be prominent. Andy Dirks is the closest thing Detroit has to a burner off the bench, but that’s not saying a whole heck of a lot — Dirks has an 81% success rate as pro, but has never stolen more than 22 bases in any one season, and only had seven attempts in 70 times reached base in Detroit this year.
Just as you are likely to hear talk of Garcia’s prowess in Detroit, you will also be subjected to talk about Jose Valverde’s shiny 100% save percentage this season. And just like Garcia’s splits against Detroit, Valverde’s save percentage is near meaningless. For the second straight year, Valverde had a BB/9 north of four, and his strikeout rate has fallen south of nine for the first time. After turning into a ground-ball machine last season, Valverde has almost completely reverted to the fly ball pitcher he used to be, but combined that with good fortune in a low home run rate. There’s a good chance that his luck is about to run out. The bullpen did catch a break with Al Alburquerque returning to action just before the season ended, and Joaquin Benoit improbably lived up to the dollars he was paid this year, as his fastball and slider were both sixth-best per 100 pitches among qualified relievers. Pair those two with Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke, who were pretty good in handling lefties this year, and you have a solid bullpen.
Secret Weapon: Al Alburquerque
Alburquerque found his stride early with the Tigers, and has only been better as the season has progressed. He hasn’t thrown a lot down the stretch, as he was inadvertently concussed during batting practice in August (honestly, I’m surprised this doesn’t happen more often), and also had a hip problem towards the end of the year, but he looks to be healthy now. He hasn’t allowed a run since the break, and his control has been better as well. What’s more, he’s no stranger to work, as he recorded at least four outs in more than a quarter of his appearances this season.
| Yankees Bench | Yankees Bullpen | |
| IF Eric Chavez* | CL Mariano Rivera | |
| OF Chris Dickerson* | RHP David Robertson | |
| OF Andruw Jones | RHP Rafael Soriano | |
| C Jesus Montero | LHP Boone Logan | |
| IF Eduardo Nunez | RHP A.J. Burnett | |
| C Austin Romine | RHP Cory Wade | |
| RHP Luis Ayala | ||
The Yankees get to take advantage of an extra spot here by virtue of the fact that they will use one less starter — I have Austin Romine listed here, but would not be surprised to see Phil Hughes or Bartolo Colon rostered out of respect. Either way, the Yankees’ bench looks to be superior to Detroit’s. Andruw Jones has been as mashtastic as ever this year. And then there’s Montero, who figures to work his way into some significant at-bats.
The bullpen is also strong. Anytime Mariano Rivera is the second-best reliever on your team, you know have something special, and that’s what the Yankees have had this year in David Robertson. Robertson isn’t nearly as efficient as Rivera (who is?), but he has been just as effective, stranding runners at a ridiculous 89.8% rate. Like Rivera, he is also devastating against lefties. Though not as good as that duo, Boone Logan (3.65 FIP, 3.12 xFIP) has been formidable against lefties as well — Logan may be strictly on Avila duty this series. Righties have fared similarly poorly against Rafael Soriano and Cory Wade, and Burnett and Luis Ayala will also be around just for funsies.
Secret Weapon: Chris Dickerson
You thought I was going to say Montero, right? No, sorry, he’s not a secret. But resident speed burner Chris Dickerson has the same 80% stolen base success rate that Dirks does, but with a longer, more distinguished track record, as he has more experience in the Show. But with the depth the Yankees are going to carry, they can afford to freely pinch-run for Posada, A-Rod, Swisher, Teixeira and Martin with Dickerson and Eduardo Nunez — who is the poor man’s Dickerson in terms of stolen bases. Dickerson though, actually has value elsewhere, as he can flash some leather. He will likely see some time in every game, similar to how Gardner did in 2009 — some pinch-running, some defensive caddying — in the late innings.
In stacking things up, I see the Tigers having an advantage in the rotation…and that’s it. The Yankees have the better lineup if for no other reason than its best hitters come up sooner. They also have the better bench and the better bullpen. What’s more, since Verlander won’t go on short rest, there is a lot of pressure on the Tigers to win two of the first three, because the last thing they want is a Sabathia-Rick Porcello matchup with their backs against the wall. I don’t think they can pull it off. Detroit wins Doug Fister‘s start, but that’s it — Yankees in four.
I think you transposed Cano and Teixeira in the Yankees’ lineup section. Cano is a lefty and bats fifth while Teixeira is the switch-hitter who bats third.
So I see that Cano was moved to the three hole, but he’s still a lefty.
Good writeup, Paul. I think the Tigers’ rotation edge is being overstated by a lot of folks, and primarily under the misguided assumption that Verlander is that much better than Sabathia (and the fact that Fister has faced a total of two good Linwood since the break).
It’s worth noting, however, that Romine was left off the roster in favor of Hughes. I don’t think that changes the bullpen/bench analysis at all, however.
::Shrug:: I don’t think anyone is saying that Verlander is SO much better than Sabathia. Fister is just a LOT better than Nova. Nova’s peripherals have been slightly worse than Porcello and Freddy Garcia has been even worse than that.
The Yankees’ rotation is probably the worst in the playoffs, but it’ll hardly matter. Their offense/bullpen makes up for almost that entire deficiency and then some. I’m a diehard Tigers fan and I think it’s Yankees in 5.
teams doug fister has faced since going to the tigers
texas
clevland
baltimore
clevland
rays
royals
clevland
twins
oakland
royals
clevland
not exactly the yankees lineup
Pfun pfact: The Royals and Orioles were 6th and 7th in the AL in scoring. Not the Yankees, but also not a bunch of banjo-hitters.
I’m very interested to see if/how Hughes and Burnett are used in the bullpen this postseason. They were both much maligned as starters this year, for obvious reasons, but both can be pretty outstanding for 1-3 innings. Depending on how creatively Girardi uses them, they could be the best long-men out of the bullpen in the league.
It’s unorthodox to say the least, but 4 innings of Nova/Garcia and 3 innings of Burnett/Hughes could very easily add up to an outstanding 7 innings of pitching. The Yankees have a lot of questions marks in their rotation, but their bullpen has the potential to be so ridiculous that it closes a lot of those gaps.
awesome write up from a dejected red sox fan……and paul is right cano has been moved to the 3-hole vs righties b/c of tex’s awful stats left-handed
Ever since teams started shifting on Teixeira with right handed pitchers, he’s just seemed completely unable to get hits on balls in play. It’s ridiculous. For a guy who’s ostensibly a good hitter, I have to wonder at his seeming refusal to take the ball the other way when batting lefty.
I have to laugh about Jeter once again being predicted to be the Yankees possible downfall. Meanwhile, you think Peralta a decent defensive shortstop. I know its popular to disparage Jeter’s defense, but do you really think he is worse than Johnny Peralta?
With Peralta and Betemit, the Tigers might have the worst defensive left side I’ve ever seen….
Both FG and B-Ref have Peralta at +1 defensive WAR this year.
I think that is entirely meaningless without a measure of the error.
Umm, Peralta is fine defensively at short. There’s no chance you have seen any Tigers game if you think otherwise. Betemit sucks there yes, but he’ll be taken out for Inge or Kelly if he has to late in games.
I’ve seen Peralta play plenty, thank you.
Yet you can’t even spell his name correctly (or incorrectly, I suppose).
Ryan,
Haha, I never noticed Peralta spelled his first name wrong. Now I wonder if Jhonny is actually his name and not a nickname. I have an ex cousin-inlaw by the name of Johnny (not John). He is Costa Rican, and Costa Rican’s apparently like American names, but are sometimes unaware what is a real name and what is a nickname.
….I also no a girl who’s parents emigrated from China. Her name is Juliette (after Romeo and Juliette), but her mother spelled it “Gillette” on her birth certificate. …her nickname in college was “The best a man can get”.
*know
Spanish doesn’t just borrow foreign words and keep the spelling the same, like English does. So yes, the spelling is intentional, to give the name the correct pronunciation.
Honestly, Jeter’s numbers against righties aren’t terrible for a SS on the bad side of a platoon split. They’re pretty bad for a leadoff hitter though.
His defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as you’re implying here. Look at the three year UZR splits, (6.4, -4.7, -6.5) and he’s below average but not awful. Not really fair to use his last two years of batting against righties but just ignore the last 3 years of defensive data.
Jeter is a perfectly average defensive shortstop. Always has been. He does some things really well (come in on balls, go back on pop ups, make all the plays he gets to) and he does some things poorly (go to his left). The narrative is that Jeter is the worst defensive shortstop ever though, and so he will always be….
I do think it’s kind of disingenuous to use his last two years worth of splits, when he’s so obivously been a better hitter since getting to 3000.
Tigers take the first two in NY and close it out in 4.
book it
Word.
I am really looking forward to Verlander pitching in the post-season again…he was okay as a rookie, and he’s struggled a bit down the stretch this season, but I really can’t see him flaming out…he’s been too focused this season. I’d give the Tigers the edge in game 1, but I can’t see Fister’s unholy streak continuing in game 2…soft tossers never seem to perform as well in cold weather as the flame throwers do. The key to the series, in my opinion, is whether good Max or bad Max shows up in game 3…he certainly has the ability to shut down any team in baseball, but he also has the ability to give up 7 runs in 3 innings. If Max wins game 3, the Tigers win the series, is my guess. Yankees are in for a tough series. I am disappointed in Leyland’s statement that Verlander won’t pitch in game 4, when Sabathia will be…I’d rather that it is left unanswered, than made so definitive…I cannot see any scenario in which Porcello defeats Sabathia.
The thing is that Verlander has never gone on short rest in his career. He’s pitched 250 innings this year, averaging 116 pitches per game. If they pitch him too much — and this is purely theoretical in Verlander’s case, since we’ve never seen any evidence of his being human, but it’s still possible — he could get fatigued, and less effective. Better to keep him in his rhythm, at least in the divisional series, if you want the best chance at winning the whole thing.
Great analysis. Hoping for a great series. Good luck Tigers fans and Go Yanks!
Going to the game tonight — cheapest tickets I could get were $190 a pop, but it’s worth it to see Sabbathia and Verlander.
I couldn’t agree more (or be more jealous)
Stupid weather…
Does anybody else get annoyed at Leyland’s terrible lineup decisions? Putting a poor OBP (and overall poor hitter) hitter in the second spot (Magglio Ordonez) and having Delmon Young way too high in the lineup definitely cost the team some runs this year. Also, why is everybody in love with Delmon Young? He’s been worth less than a win this year (one of his better years) and he has been a below-average player with the tigers. People always say that he has “a power stroke” and “strikes fear into the opposition.”
Yes, everyone does.
I get annoyed by Leyland’s lineups as well, but Young has absolutely not been a below average player with the Tigers. He only had 2 or 3 home runs before being traded and finished with 12. He has especially raised his offense in September, with a .808 OPS. That’s pretty good considering he doesn’t walk much.
I see he actually hit 4 homers as a Twin, but he still produced twice as many with the Tigers in 44 fewer games.
As a Yankee fan, no, I do not.
Yankees are Vegas’s least favored favorite at -155. For comparison, Texas -170, MW -175, and Phillies -290.
The key to this series is Miguel Cabrera… he batted .344 in the regular season and .396 over the course of the season with RISP. How anybody is mentioning other people for MVP is beyond me… are they looking at different stats or are they willfully ignoring Cabrera like the media for the simple reason that they don’t like hm?
He plays 1st base.
1) Miguel Cabrera is a first baseman, and a defensively mediocre one at that. When you’ve got two center fielders who provide plus value on both sides of the ball (Ellsbury and Granderson) and a right fielder having a fantastic offensive season (Jose Bautista), the first baseman who can rake doesn’t look as good.
2) People aren’t exactly ignoring Cabrera. He’ll probably finish in the top 5 of the voting. It’s just that other players have had equal or better seasons.
3) Why does it confuse you that people are mentioning more than your one pick for MVP? If you think Cabrera is the MVP, fine! He’s a reasonable choice. But do you really think he’s so far ahead of the pack that nobody else should even be in the discussion? Really?
You know Bautista’s amazing offensive season? He’s not hitting significantly better than Miggy this year. wRC+ difference of 4.
John Rocker is that you?
what is the point of this comment?
….context lost. this was in response to an offensive comment that has since been removed.
Secret Weapon: Al Alburquerque
Robinson Cano (Dontcha KNOW!) disagrees with you.