All-Star Win Probability

Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young‘s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.


Away Home
M Rivera 21.9
S Kazmir 5.2
B Zito 5.2
J Santana 4.9
B Ryan 3.5
K Rogers 0.0
R Halladay -0.9
T Gordon 12.7
D Turnbow 10.0
B Fuentes 8.3
B Arroyo 7.3
B Webb 6.5
R Oswalt 5.7
B Penny 0.0
T Hoffman -60.7

M Young 59.1
P Konerko 11.1
V Guerrero 6.7
G Matthews Jr 6.1
V Wells 0.6
M Ordonez -1.9
T Glaus -2.4
D Ortiz -3.2
A Rodriguez -3.8
I Rodriguez -3.9
J Thome -4.9
M Tejada -5.8
M Loretta -5.9
I Suzuki -6.2
D Jeter -6.4
J Dye -7.7
J Mauer -9.3
G Sizemore -12.0
C Beltran 17.5
D Wright 4.4
A Soriano 2.2
L Berkman 2.1
C Utley 0.3
D Eckstein -1.2
B McCann -1.5
J Bay -2.1
M Holliday -4.6
A Pujols -5.7
P Lo Duca -7.2
R Howard -7.5
E Renteria -9.7
F Sanchez -11.8
C Lee -15.0

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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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David Pinto

When Beltran singled and Soriano got thrown out at the plate, how is that scored? Does Beltran get credit for making it 1-3 one out, then Soriano get penalized for making it man on second two out? Or does the whole play of man on second 1 out to man on second 2 out get credited to Beltran? It’s not clear from the graph.