An Inning with Gerrit Cole’s Command

The nation will remember Stephen Strasburg‘s major-league debut. Strasburg started his first game on June 8, 2010. That’s not the part people will remember. People will remember the overwhelming dominance, the standing ovations, the 14 strikeouts in seven innings with not one single walk. Gerrit Cole, as Strasburg was, is a top flame-throwing pitching prospect, and Cole just made his own major-league debut in the month of June. Cole’s not as hyped, and his outing didn’t match up to Strasburg’s, in terms of baseball-y sex appeal. But Cole needed just 81 pitches to pitch to 27 batters, and the Giants had only one run on the board when Cole walked off the mound to an ovation of his own. With the lofty expectations placed on top prospects, it’s easy for them to disappoint, but one start in, Gerrit Cole hasn’t disappointed.

I thought we might take a quick look at Cole’s Tuesday night command. Or, at his command over a selection of pitches, like I’ve done with Mariano Rivera and with Carlos Marmol in the past. This isn’t for any diagnostic purposes; this is just for fun, and so we can look at Cole in a way that maybe you didn’t, yesterday, if you were watching. As a prospect, Cole had a few question marks, those being his command and his secondary stuff behind the impressive heater. In Triple-A he threw 63% strikes, pretty much right on the league average. Tuesday, he threw 59 strikes out of 81 pitches, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 27 batters. In that regard it was a surprising outing. In that Cole was effective, it was not.

As Cole was a power guy with occasional command problems, one might’ve expected both strikeouts and walks and a bit of inefficiency. He was impressively economical, with not one walk and only two strikeouts. Granted, you’d prefer more than two strikeouts, given what we know about pitching, but Cole did miss eight bats, and the strikeouts themselves were remarkable. We see good hitters going down against big heat and big break:

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Cole might’ve just been searching for efficiency in his first-ever go. Nearly eight of ten pitches were fastballs. All but one first pitch were fastballs, with a lonely slider being the one exception. Cole kept himself in and around the zone, and he didn’t give the Giants much of an opportunity to get his pitch count up. Maybe he tired by the end, or maybe he didn’t, but Cole had a good outing and a different sort of outing from what one could’ve assumed.

I’ve decided to look closely at Cole’s fifth inning, in which he threw ten pitches to three batters. There wasn’t a specific reason to choose the fifth, but ten seems like a good number, and by the top of the fifth Cole should’ve been settled in, leaving behind any possible early-inning jitters. Also, Cole shouldn’t yet have become fatigued. What you’re going to see are ten screenshots, with pitch location, and with the red dot designating intended pitch location as determined by the location of Russell Martin‘s glove. As usual, we can’t say for sure that Martin was setting a target, but we can assume as much. Cole didn’t pitch with any runners on in the fifth so Martin wouldn’t have been trying to trick anybody.

Once more, there’s the necessary caveat that this might not be representative of Gerrit Cole. It’s one inning in one game, and we don’t know what Cole is usually like, and we don’t know what the average pitcher is usually like. This is just the third such experiment, and I’m not going to determine anything based on the below, but exploration can be fun for exploration’s sake. Gerrit Cole’s top of the fifth from his major-league debut against the Giants on June 11:

cole1

Fastball, bit of a miss. Instead of throwing at the thigh on the inside edge, Cole threw at the belt over the middle. On the other hand, he was facing Tim Lincecum. And Cole has the kind of fastball where he can get away with some mistakes.

cole2

Fastball, bit of a miss again but better. Cole threw over the middle of the plate, but this time it was at the knees, which is a better place to miss. And, again, Lincecum. Lincecum sucks, at this.

cole3

Fastball, pretty good. Cole didn’t retire Lincecum on three pitches, as this was taken for a ball, but it was the right kind of ball and Cole’s pitch had the right idea. It missed just a little too inside.

cole4

Slider, miss. It didn’t miss the zone by much, as Cole nearly froze Lincecum on the back door, but that wasn’t the intent and the pitch seemed to slip just a little out of Cole’s hand. That’s missing location by about a plate width.

cole5

Fastball, not bad. Again, it’s a miss — Cole was looking to throw low and in, and instead he threw low and away. But he missed in a perfect spot, where the pitch might’ve been called a strike, but also where Lincecum couldn’t have done anything with it. This turned into a harmless grounder. On Gameday, you’d think, “hey, great pitch.” It was a great pitch. It just wasn’t the planned great pitch, which is different.

cole6

Fastball, basically perfect. It was taken for a borderline ball, but Cole really couldn’t have thrown this pitch better. That’s 96 miles per hour on the hands.

cole7

Fastball, good. Cole had to throw a strike, behind in the count, but he threw a quality strike over the outer half. Terrific execution.

cole8

Slider, acceptable. Ideally, Cole would’ve caught the corner, and he only barely missed it, but this wound up an easy first-pitch ball. It’s a good place to miss with a slider against a right-handed hitter, even if that hitter is the unstrikeoutable Marco Scutaro.

cole9

Fastball, perfect, lol good luck

cole10

Slider, bit of a miss. Instead of an outside slider, this was an inside slider, but it was at the right elevation and it was on the edge. If you can’t pitch to the intended edge, you could do worse than pitching to the opposite one, since edges are edges. This pitch was more pullable, and indeed it was pulled, but it was pulled for an out.

There are ten Gerrit Cole pitches to the Giants, five of them to a pitcher. The three sliders missed, but they didn’t miss miserably. The fastballs to the non-pitcher were just about perfect, which might’ve been a coincidence, or which might’ve been evidence of Cole bearing down against more threatening bats. Cole doesn’t have to worry so much about command against Tim Lincecum, not that that excuses missed locations. I wonder if location is different against pitchers and non-pitchers. That is, I wonder if the pitchers on the mound kind of let up. I don’t know and that’s not what we’re dealing with here!

I told you before we weren’t going to determine anything based on these ten pitches. Marc Hulet wrote before the year that Cole’s control was ahead of his command. Cole’s control was good Tuesday night, as evidenced by all the strikes. His command wasn’t perfect, but nobody’s is, and Cole’s stuff comes with a built-in margin of error. It’s going to be interesting to see how Cole proceeds — whether he keeps pounding the zone, or whether he pitches around it and generates more strikeouts. With the strikeouts would come the walks, but with the walks would come the strikeouts. By results, Tuesday isn’t what I expected of Gerrit Cole. I’ll be eager to see if this keeps up, and I’m ecstatic that I’m going to have a chance to find out.




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

14 Responses to “An Inning with Gerrit Cole’s Command”

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  1. hamjenkinsIII says:

    Martin: Cole, you stupid!!

    (Insert laugh track)

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  2. martin short says:

    tough to see the actual ball in most of these. perhaps highlighting it w/ a yellow dot next time?

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  3. channelclemente says:

    Say, can you quantify pitch location relative to target as a metric for comparison?

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  4. BalkingHeads says:

    From the screenshots, it seems like his back leg is sort of inconsistent in his follow through.

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  5. Ben says:

    I think you mean “we see a good hitter going down…” not “good hitters” since one is Gregor Blanco

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  6. szielinski says:

    Martin claimed Cole threw curveballs, not sliders.

    I did not watch the seventh inning. But most of the hits I saw were not hit hard.

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  7. derp says:

    The only issue arises when you consider that catcher’s will intentionally set up wrong on occasion in case the hitter might take a quick peek to get an idea of where the balls is heading. In these 10 pitches, that’s curious to consider, because pretty much all of Cole’s pitches ended up in good spots anyways, so you have to question if the catcher deliberately set up wrong.

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  8. nolan says:

    I don’t think that the location of Martin’s glove tells us enough to draw many conclusions from this, but the visualization is nice. I thought this was Cole’s best inning and one where he showed a maturity beyond his years. It’s clear to me that the strikeout is not his primary focus. This was in stark contrast to Lincecum who seemed to be going for a strikeout every at-bat.

    I’d prefer if you used a still of Martin with his glove at the expected location and a red dot where the pitch landed rather than vise versa. But great article!

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  9. Michael says:

    FWIW, Russell Martin confirmed that Cole didn’t throw a single slider last night, which is clearly the better of this two breaking balls.

    As you can see from the second GIF before the breakdown of the 5th inning, it comes in at 82 and has too much vertical break to be a slider most likely. Pitch F/X agrees with the assessment that Cole used his fringy curvebal rather than his slider, which is at least plus, but a pitch he’s struggled with commanding and even controlling lately. The max velocity of his slider according to Pitch F/X was 85.8 and the average 83.4. Cole’s slider routinely comes in at 90, so it was almost assuredly a different pitch.

    Maybe the slider has been overhyped and the slurvy, curve thing is what he’ll be using, but one conclusion is that he made his major league debut without using either his best or second best (some reports like the changeup more, but virtually every report notes that the slider is plus-plus at times, at least the ones I’ve read) secondary pitch. There is no guarantee that he’ll use the slider in the future or that it’s as good as advertised, but there is the possibility that he could quickly add a plus or better pitch that generally is used to induce strikeouts to his arsenal. That might raise the K numbers a bit.

    All-in-all a great start and he may have done it without using his second best pitch, if you can buy into that.

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  10. No Comment says:

    Big fan of this series. Thank you Jeff.

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