Andy Pettitte Hangs ‘Em Up

It all ended when Bengie Molina grounded out to Alex Rodriguez, though no one knew it at the time. It was actually a well-struck ball heading down the third base line, but Rodriguez laid out, sprang to his feet, and fired a one-hopper that Mark Teixeira scooped out of the dirt. In celebration, Andy Pettitte let loose with a mighty pump of the fist. With today’s news that Pettitte will announce his retirement tomorrow, that fist pump marks his final act on a pitching mound.

Pettitte’s career will always be looked on more fondly by Yankees fans than baseball fans in general, but that doesn’t mean he’s undeserving of the accolades laid upon him today. In fact, all you have to do is check out the career pitching WAR leaders to see where Pettitte stacks up with his post-1980 peers. His 66.9 WAR ranks 13th, which certainly puts him into some interesting conversations.

The first such conversation involves Pettitte’s place in Yankees’ history. If we take out the 11.2 WAR he accumulated in Houston, that leaves Pettitte with 55.7 WAR as a Yankee. The only Yankees who produced more WAR than that were Dwight Gooden, David Cone, David Wells, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, and Roger Clemens. Yet none of them produced even the majority of their career WAR totals in New York. Pettitte’s total far outranks theirs by a considerably margin: Mussina is the next closest at 38.2. It is safe to say that Pettitte was the most valuable Yankees pitcher since 1980.

Only three pitchers in Yankees history have thrown more innings for the team than Pettitte: Whitey Ford, Red Ruffing, and Mel Stottlemyre. Our own WAR doesn’t go far back enough to capture pitchers before 1980, but Baseball Reference’s version does. According to bWAR, Pettitte ranks No. 6 among all-time Yankees pitchers with 42.7 WAR. Only Lefty Gomez, Ron Guidry, Ruffing, Ford, and Mariano Rivera rank ahead of him. His career 114 ERA+ and 3.75 FIP don’t put him in such impressive company, but they are both very good marks, especially when we’re framing the conversation in terms of all-time Yankees.

The bigger conversation, of course, involves Pettitte’s chances of enshrinement in Cooperstown. Craig Calcaterra took up the case earlier this afternoon, and came to a sound conclusion. By the numbers Pettitte probably doesn’t have the strongest case, but we know that writers don’t alway go by the numbers. As we’ve seen with many pitchers in the past, his case will be built around postseason performances and the five rings he owns. That might be enough to get him in after a few years on the ballot.

In terms of his actual case, I’m not sure it’s strong enough. His 66.9 WAR compares well with Tom Glavine‘s 68.5 WAR, and Pettitte has a stronger postseason argument. He also accumulated those numbers in almost 1,400 fewer innings. But in terms of current Hall of Famers, the only post-1980 induction to whom Pettitte really compares is Catfish Hunter. But just because Pettitte probably had a better career than one relatively recent Hall of Famer doesn’t mean he should get in. There are plenty of pitchers, including Al Leiter, to name one, whose careers compare favorably to Hunter’s. They’re not all getting in.

While the Hall of Fame might not be in his future, Andy Pettitte will be remembered by the current generation of baseball fans. He is one of the game’s more recognizable pitchers, both because of his prowess on the mound and his presences on national screens nearly every October. In the next few day we’ll talk about how this affects the 2011 Yankees. But for now, it’s an homage to the career of a solid, if not spectacular, starting pitcher.




Print This Post



Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.


83 Responses to “Andy Pettitte Hangs ‘Em Up”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. WL Wallace IV says:

    I’m going to miss his amazing (most likely illegal) pick-off move.

    :(

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Brian says:

    His career ERA+ was 117 actually, not 114.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Joe says:

    It is interesting that few articles have mentioned his use of HGH. Sure it doesn’t compare to the roid users but it still is a POE. It shouldn’t tarnish his record but it is more than a blip on the radar.

    I guess the comical blunders of McGwire, Bonds and the others has overshadowed Pettitte’s own admission of guilt (which has helped his case).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ed says:

      HGH isn’t a PED though. For a while it was thought to be, but then the medical studies came out. If you have higher than normal levels, there’s no positives to it and it does a lot of harm.

      It’s still a felony to use and against baseball rules as well, but there’s no plus to using it.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • chuckb says:

        That’s true, but it’s largely irrelevant to the media members and public who don’t know better. In 5 years, perhaps, HGH will be viewed as it truly is rather than as something taken by someone who was trying to cheat. To the voters and the public — HGH = bad = cheater. That’s all that matters.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Ed says:

        The media has mostly shut up about HGH. For a while about a year or two ago a lot of the better writers were pointing out the truth about HGH.

        I’m quite curious to see how it plays out over time though. It’s hard to tell how far its spread among the voters.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. DCStack says:

    I’m stating my bias up front – I’m a die-hard Yankees fan.

    With that out of the way I have a methodological issue. Why isn’t his post-season WAR taken into account? One isn’t provided but it should be easy to calculate. His career regular season numbers are very similar to his postseason numbers. So I’m guessing his postseason WAR is probably around 6 or maybe a little higher.

    I understand the position that the postseason shouldn’t be treated as being special, even if I might disagree with that position. But to not count it at all seems absurd. He pitched more than a season’s worth of innings (263) in the postseason. And I would argue that postseason games should count more than regular season games because, after all, you play to win championships. I’m not making an argument about the number of rings he has. I am suggesting the radical idea that the postseason counts as part of a players career.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • John says:

      Stating my bias upfront-I think rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for polio.

      Sure you give a guy some credit for postseason pitching, but how much credit do you give a guy for an opportunity that was largely not of his own creation? Hard time giving a guy too much credit for simply being in the right place at the right time. Maybe you would give him a lot of credit if he had an amazing postseason resume, but he was good not great in the postseason. His postseason stats pretty much mirror his regular season stats.

      In the end I think Pettite is a marginal candidate, there are guys to whom he is comparable, but they are the borderline guys who ended up in the HOF. At first blush I say no to the HOF, but if he manages to get in, it wouldn’t be as egregious as a guy like Jim Rice.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joe says:

        I think DCStack is suggesting to just give it the same weight as the reg season… he did pitch those innings. I can see the argument on both sides about giving extra credit for it, but why not consider it at least the same as reg season? (instead of ignoring it altogether)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • adam says:

        Right, I mean, you can assume those innings in the postseason were against much more difficult than average competition, too. It seems unfair to ignore them altogether.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • LeiterWagnerFasterStronger says:

        DC Stack’s going a little further afield than that, Joe:

        “And I would argue that postseason games should count more than regular season games because, after all, you play to win championships.”

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joe says:

        Great cutting out the sentences preceding that quote so it fits your point… perhaps you should have quoted the whole paragraph instead of just the one selective sentence?

        Here’s what came right before it:
        “I understand the position that the postseason shouldn’t be treated as being special, even if I might disagree with that position. But to not count it at all seems absurd. He pitched more than a season’s worth of innings (263) in the postseason”

        I think the only thing going further afield is your interpretation of his position.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John says:

        No Joe, he is stating there are 3 ways you can use postseason data: A) Give it no weight; B) Give it the same weight as the regular season; or C) Give it more weight than the regular season. He is arguing that C is correct, but that at a minimum it should at least be B. So yes, he is going further afield than what you said.

        I have no issue with giving a guy some credit for postseason, particularly when they have as many innings as Pettitte. But Pettitte’s postseason performance reveals him to be exactly the same kind of pitcher as he was in the regular season. He is a very good, not great pitcher. If you take a big hall approach he belongs, but personally I think at best he compares to the marginal candidates and don’t think he deserves it, but then again that is just a quick and dirty look at his numbers.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • DCStack says:

        John, you correctly identified the choices as I see them:

        “A) Give it no weight; B) Give it the same weight as the regular season; or C) Give it more weight than the regular season.”

        But the gist of my post was not an argument for C. It was an argument against A. Position A is what Joe used here and what others have used elsewhere. It is the least defensible position of all. If the postseason doesn’t matter at all we should simply stop at the end of the regular season, give all the players little trophies with “We are all champions” inscribed on them, hand them juice boxes then send them home with mommy.

        The bottom line: the debate should be between positions B and C, yet most of the sabrmetrically oriented writers seem to be making their cases from the A position. That is an untenable position.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Barkey Walker says:

      If you would *consider* Jack Morris because of one game, you have to think Pettitte is a serious contender. There are good reasons for FG not to include postseason in their WAR (like is is the fault of Hernandez that he didn’t pitch in the post season this year? Why count it against him?) Plus, WAR is a really bad measure for postseason where you want to change R to a much higher level (like a replacement based on an a typical postseason player).

      But, I’d bet HGH keeps him out based on current voting practices.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • bill says:

        I would think that the postseason should essentially be “bonus points” to a player’s career. You don’t count it against a player if he doesn’t make it, but it shouldn’t be discounted either.

        Playing well in the postseason matters, and if you’re like Pettite, who has basically thrown a season’s worth of innings in the postseason (by the way, he is the ALL TIME leader in postseason innings pitched, and by a lot), it counts for something. At least, writers will count it for something.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Pierre says:

      nobody who matters believes in or cares about regular season WAR, much less post-season WAR. But I’m sure Petitte’s post-season record will help him get some HOF votes.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. It’s notable that Fangraphs’ WAR likes him a LOT more than Sean Smith’s. He has 66.9 fWAR, but only 50.2 rWAR, which is the equivalent of four to five of his average seasons.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sorry, I meant to say that the difference between the two, 16.7 WAR, is the equivalent of four to five of his average seasons.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John says:

        Do you draw any conclusions from this note?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • miffleball says:

        i was actually going to point this out – doesn’t this clearly demonstrate that WAR is not yet refined enough to use it as the basis for stating an argument about a player’s career?
        and don’t get me wrong – pettitte was a very good pitcher for a very long time. but i’m betting that at 42 WAR his HOF argument looks very different than at 55 WAR.
        however, a lot like what we saw this year with kevin brown, pettitte was never the best pitcher in baseball, his league, or even his own team. and that makes it very difficult to consider him anything other than a very good player who was an essential part of several championship teams

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Drakos says:

      I’d imagine that this is at least partly attributable to the difference in replacement value between the two systems. Unfortunately I’m not sure if there is a discussion like this for pitchers but here is some good stuff on position players.

      http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/29/1839730/are-fwar-and-rwar-on-different-scales

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Ryan says:

    He won’t make the Hall. 20-30 more wins might have done it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Telo says:

    I wonder if there’s ANYONE with 5 rings and 60 or even 50 WAR who isn’t in the hall.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brian says:

      How many SP’s have 5 rings at all, though? Can’t be many.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eric R says:

      Here are all of the five ring guys who aren’t in the HoF, sorted by rWAR

      PLAYER RINGS rWAR
      David Cone 5 57.5
      Mariano Rivera 5 52.9
      Andy Pettitte 5 50.2
      Eddie Lopat 5 31.9
      Allie Reynolds 6 29.0
      Ken Holtzman 5 27.5
      Spud Chandler 6 26.0
      Frankie Crosetti 8 22.4
      Vic Raschi 6 21.4
      Johnny Murphy 7 14.7
      Ramiro Mendoza 5 10.3
      Tommy Byrne 6 8.1

      64 of 69 player seasons represented are for the Yankees…

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. LeviDavis says:

    His career WAR is lower than Kevin Brown’s, though in fewer seasons. Seasons with WAR over 5

    Pettitte: 4
    Brown: 7

    Not Kevin Brown fan, just saying.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      Brown was much better than he has been given credit for being.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joel says:

        Kevin Brown not even getting 5% of votes in his first and only year on the ballot was great for those small-hall advocates who will be able to construct arguments for why pitcher X shouldn’t be in the Hall because his stats don’t measure up to Brown’s.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        There’s nothing wrong with a “Small Hall”. It’s just a different preference.

        I think, at this point, all we really want is “consistent criteria”.

        If the voters said “no way in Hell” to the Jack Morrises of the world, then we could likely stomach a “sorry, but no” to Kevin Brown and Edgar Renteria.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Walt says:

    Baseball HoF voting seems to the be the sport that takes championships into account the least. It’s all about hitting those magic regular season numbers like 3,000 hits, 300 wins, or 500 HRs. I’d like to see post-season success taken into account.

    Andy Petite played for some really good teams, and that resulted in a lot of post-season opportunities; but he also converted on them. I wouldn’t consider him a stretch to make the Hall, and won’t be disappointed if he does.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. My echo and bunnymen says:

    Dwight Gooden was a Met…. and as a Yankee didn’t accumulate that much.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Jimbo says:

    “It is safe to say that Pettitte was the most valuable Yankees pitcher since 1980.”

    I assume you mean starting pitcher.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Bob says:

    Pettitte vs. Glavine. Interesting that Pettitte is only 1.6 WAR behind Glavine, who’s a potential 1st ballot HOF despite pitching 1400 fewer innings. Does this say more about Fangraphs’s WAR calculation or more about public perception of the two pitchers? I doubt the AL/NL disparity is large enough to make up the difference. Also, FIP and xFIP are much kinder to Pettitte than Glavine.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • miffleball says:

      …and ding ding ding, since FIP and xFIP are what fangraphs uses for WAR, that would explain why glavine barely looks better than pettitte.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Glavine has 67.0 rWAR while Pettitte has just 50.2. So the difference between the two of them is basically equal to the difference between Pettitte’s fWAR and Pettitte’s rWAR.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Bob says:

        So, as I understand it, fWAR is more forward looking while rWAR is more backward looking for pitchers. If this is true, then all historical comparisons of the value or HOF merits of pitchers should be made using rWAR.

        As an aside, is there an adjustment for pitchers hitting in FIP or fWAR? Over the past 10 years, NL pitchers have BABIP of roughly .222. NL hitters (excluding pitchers) have BABIP of .300. Including pitchers, the BABIP is .296. AL hitters BABIP is .299. It’s not a huge difference (~1%), but is this being taken into account?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. phoenix2042 says:

    i loved pettitte. a real class act and a big presence on the mound. he has a big place in yankees history (i am a huge yankees fan). he had a great career and some really big moments, including the postseason wins and 5 rings. a great player and a great guy. i wish him well. and if he gets into the hall, i will be really happy. he isn’t a first ballot guy, but the hall seems to like rings, wins, and presence over ERA and WAR, so maybe he has a shot.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • dwightford420 says:

      Yeah, but the hall hates people who took PEDs more than they like “presence”.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • fredsbank says:

        yes but he’s hardly clemens or bonds or mcgwire or canseco

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • phoenix2042 says:

        and he came right out in it and even made an incredibly un-classy thing seem classy! no but i did really like him and supposedly he only used PEDs when he was injured. idk if that’s true, but still compared to a lot of players, he’s not bad.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Hank says:

        The Hall seems to hate steroid users…. I think the jury is out on PED’s in general when they have elected a multitude of PED users to the Hall..

        I think the question is will hGH be considered more like greenies/amphetamines or more like steroids. I think it will tend to be treated more like steroids although the distinctions (esp w/greenies) makes absolutely no sense.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ausmax says:

        It does seem difficult to argue that if you’re going to let any player who took PEDs in to the hall of fame that the first such player in should not be Barry Bonds. Not a particular fan of him, but if he had done we he did without taking steroids it would be fair to call him the best hitter of all time.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Jared says:

    I don’t think that you should include Dwight Gooden with Yankees that have pitched more than 50 WAR, because well Gooden had two 2 WAR seasons with the Yankees. His career numbers aren’t as a Yankee. He was a Yankee for a brief period of time.

    Anyway…
    I thought Andy had about 200-250 innings left in his career, maybe spread out over two seasons, with some in the postseason. Too bad, he’s gone. He was a good pitcher, though I don’t think he was good enough for the HoF. If his career had been longer, and the Yankees could have gotten more wins for him then maybe so.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. baty says:

    If Pettitte really wanted to solidify an argument for the HOF he would have passed the temptation of a “slightly” early retirement. Not that it should matter, but it will most certainly matter to some of the baseball writers out there looking for even more PED fuel to ensure he never gets in.

    It’s an annoying rehash over and over, but to not even make a subtle reference to the PED controversy in an article about a career retrospective? Making an obvious attempt to avoid that (by making Craig Calcaterra the one to do it) is almost as annoying as the ranting publications that constantly try to pound the controversy down my throat. My apologies for being a jerk, but it’s a very ESPNish way of bypassing realities.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • adam says:

      I think it’s at least mildly obvious that he doesn’t give a ship about the HoF; otherwise, he’d be in NY again.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • DJG says:

      I agree with baty. How can you discuss Cooperstown and not even mention the PED incident, when PEDs are keeping otherwise obviously deserving players out (at least for now)? Seems very strange to me.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • fredsbank says:

        because those players ridiculously enhanced their resumes for years with steroids, whereas if you believe pettitte, he used HGH to help himself rehab, one time… its not like while pettitte was doing his HGH he had a pitching equivalent of any of bonds’s ridiculous seasons

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jeff in So. Indiana says:

        Yeah, and if you believe Bonds and Clemens they never used at all. Come on.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • fredsbank says:

        yes but clemens also cheated on his wife with a teenage country singer, and barry bonds was one of the hugest douches in baseball history, whereas pettitte is a pretty good guy; there’s very good logic in believing him over them

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joel says:

        @fredsbank

        Being a douche doesn’t make you a liar. In fact, most douches are incredibly honest, which feeds into what makes them a douche.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Steve H says:

    Andy may have a better postseason case than Glavine, but he wasn’t a better postseason pitcher than Glavine.

    Glavine
    40% of starts gave up 1 or fewer runs
    Playoff ERA 0.24 lower than regular season
    Gave up 5+ earned runs in 14% of playoff starts
    Lost 30% of games in which he gave up 2 ER or less
    Allowed 2 ER or less in 66% of starts
    Record: 14-16

    Pettitte
    29% of starts gave up 1 or fewer runs
    Playoff ERA 0.05 lower than regular season
    Gave up 5+ earned runs in 17% of playoff starts
    Lost 14% of games in which he gave up 2 ER or less
    Allowed 2 ER or less in 53% of starts
    Record: 19-10

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. kick me in the GO NATS says:

    Pettite has been an above average pitcher for a long time, but you really have to credit the bulk of his success to the teams on which he played. Heck not having to face the Yankees lineup year in and year out had to count for significant lowering of his ERA.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • fredsbank says:

      doesnt mean it didnt happen

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • fredsbank says:

      besides, how many pitchers pitched for the yankees over that time and blew chunks? since you think that “the bulk” of his success was resulting from playing on good teams, shouldn’t all of the pitchers they’ve had been just as good?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BlackOps says:

        This is awful reasoning. Of course that doesn’t mean that “all of the pitchers” they’ve had should have been as good as Pettitte. He was an above average pitcher, like first guy said. Very good for a very long time. But just because he played for the Yankees and accumulated more wins doesn’t mean his hall of fame resume should be boosted.

        It would be irresponsible for the hall of fame to let Pettitte in and keep guys like Cone and Brown out because Pettitte has more wins. It’s sad they’re even still part of the discussion.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • fredsbank says:

        its not awful reasoning, you want to pretend that everything he did in the postseason didnt happen when it did absolutely happen

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BlackOps says:

        Not only did I never deny that it happened or even mention it at all, I’ll do you one better: it did happen. And it was still slightly above average, something you want to conveniently ignore.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • fredsbank says:

        “But just because he played for the Yankees and accumulated more wins doesn’t mean his hall of fame resume should be boosted.”

        so then if you acknowledge it happened, explain your reasoning that he shouldn’t be given some amount of credit for it

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BlackOps says:

        I don’t think I said that either. What I’m saying is that I don’t care if a guy pitched 3000, 4000, or 5000 innings… if his ERA is 3.8 and he was just a slightly above average pitcher, he doesn’t deserve the Hall. Pettitte was not one of the best pitchers of all time. He’s memorable, mostly for pitching on championship teams, but aren’t all championship teams already represented and celebrated at the hall? If they are, why should Pettitte get his own shrine? If they aren’t, then what is the case for Pettitte at all?

        It boils down to his worth as a pitcher: always a reliable guy, but never one of the best. I don’t think someone who was never amongst the best of his peers should be allowed to sit amongst the best of all time.

        I think your argument is that the best pitcher from the Yankee dynasty should be in the hall. I might be wrong, I just don’t think there is any way whatsoever you could spin Pettitte off as one of the best pitchers of all time. That’s what the hall is for for me: the best players, not the ones who got the most opportunities to pitch in the postseason. I could buy it if he performed much better in the playoffs, but he didn’t. He simply is not someone who I wish to recognize as one of the best of all time.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. Chuck Greenberg says:

    I think Petite retired because he was afraid to face the Rangers anymore during the regular season, and certainly not in the playoffs.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. Captain Obvious says:

    Pettitte was the Robert Horry of the NBA.

    Except Horry wasn’t a cheater

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. pft says:

    There are 68 pitchers in the HOF who pitched up to 1993. Thats about 15 pitchers per 25 years over MLB history. Since there are more teams today, one can argue there should be up to 20-25 pithcers for every 25 year period.

    Since 1985, only 14 SP’ers have pitched 3000 innings, and Pettitte is ranked 9th in ERA+, 2 points behind Tom Glavine.

    For pitchers who began their careers after 1990, it is almost impossible win 300 games, given the 5 man rotation AND pitch count, not to mention the toll the steroid era took on pitchers going deep into games.

    Since 1995, Andy Pettitte has won more games than any other pitcher, Maddox is 2nd. Now I understand W’s are a meaningless stat in evaluating a pitcher, but this is to counter those who keep bringing up 300 W’s as a magic number.

    Assuming Moyer is finished, the next active player with the most wins is Tim Wakefield at 193 wins. It’s very likely no pitcher wins 300 games again. Even CC Sabathia is only a bit over the half way mark at 157. and with his body type, it is unlikely he pitches long enough to win 300, and nobody else is even close. Cliff Lee has 102 W, Santana only 133.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ryan says:

      “Most Anything” since the exact date that a player started (like randomly 1995) rarely tells you anything useful. (unless two players started their career at the same time)

      Greg Maddux retired in 2008 as a 42 year old pitcher who debuted at 20
      Andy Pettite retired in 2011 as a 38 year old pitcher who debuted at 23

      Petitte pitched for playoff caliber teams his entire career (hence his plethora of opportunities to pitch and accumulate playoff records) his adjusted ERA is good, but he didn’t strike a lot of guys out, he gave up plenty of baserunners, he’s good, but i’m a little underwhelmed.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. BronxBombers says:

    As a proud Yankee fan, I don’t care if he ends up in the Hall or not. All I care is he won FIVE World Championships for us – something that the Red Sux will never ever achieve.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. adohaj says:

    I say he gets in to the HOF eventually. Mostly because the HOF isn’t only about stats but also about impact on the game itself. I’d rather have him in than Jack Morris.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff in So. Indiana says:

      Yeah, because Jack Morris never single-handedly won a World Series Game 7 or anything. Morris obviously had no impact on the history of the game.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Oakland Dan says:

    Pettitte will be back next year. You heard it here first.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. pinball1978 says:

    Andy’s one of the best contemporary examples of why, even if the enshrined HoFers were chosen perfectly, perhaps 90% of what makes baseball special would be lost.

    To overstate a bit in my bookish fashion, it’s like having Lear, Hamlet, Richard III, and maybe R&J and Macbeth, but none of the rest of Shakespeare, or Marlowe, or the other Elizabethans.

    And I hate the (team) Yankees, and always will.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Matthew Cornwell says:

    Why would we want to look at fgWAR for Pettitte vs. Glavine? We know both have more than enough BF to regress their BABIP and sequencing (good for Glavine and terrible for Pettitte) and give them “credit” for it. Glavine was also masterful at preventing XB hits, preventing SBs, inducing DP’s, and a host of other skills that are #1. ignored by FIP and #2, can be identified as a skill with enough BF.

    I love fgWAR when looking at pitchers who have nor reached the number of BF needed for BABIP regression to take place, but why would anybody use fgWAR for players with very long careers? Lets not forget that Glavine was a great hitter too (rWAR has him + 5 offensive WAR). Now it is hard to know how to weight that vs. the fact that Pettitte had limited offensive opportunities, but it has to favor Glavine some.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. CircleChange11 says:

    By the numbers Pettitte probably doesn’t have the strongest case, but we know that writers don’t always go by the numbers. As we’ve seen with many pitchers in the past, his case will be built around postseason performances and the five rings he owns. That might be enough to get him in after a few years on the ballot.

    Again, this thinking just blows my mind.

    [1] Post-season stats are “career numbers”, too.
    [2] Why would writers limit themselves to regular season stats only?
    [3] Why would anyone ignore post-season when looking at a Hall of Fame case?

    While we are right to point to sample size issues with playoffs, we should also recognize their importance.

    I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer either, but when you consider his post-season stuff, he enters a serious conversation … not the least of which is how to handle post-season performance when a guy has as much of it as Pettitte does. We can’t just sweep it away just because it is not “statistically significant”.

    In terms of baseball history, it’s paramount.

    Now, before the onslaught ensues can we please not respond as if I am saying that post-season performance trumps regular season performance, and make it sounds as if I am lobbying for Tito Landrum, Tom Lawless, and Kurt Bevaqua (and that’s just from the 80s) to be in the Hall of Fame.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CircleChange11 says:

      format fail

      By the numbers Pettitte probably doesn’t have the strongest case, but we know that writers don’t always go by the numbers. As we’ve seen with many pitchers in the past, his case will be built around postseason performances and the five rings he owns. That might be enough to get him in after a few years on the ballot.

      Again, this thinking just blows my mind.

      [1] Post-season stats are “career numbers”, too.
      [2] Why would writers limit themselves to regular season stats only?
      [3] Why would anyone ignore post-season when looking at a Hall of Fame case?

      While we are right to point to sample size issues with playoffs, we should also recognize their importance.

      I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer either, but when you consider his post-season stuff, he enters a serious conversation … not the least of which is how to handle post-season performance when a guy has as much of it as Pettitte does. We can’t just sweep it away just because it is not “statistically significant”.

      In terms of baseball history, it’s paramount.

      Now, before the onslaught ensues can we please not respond as if I am saying that post-season performance trumps regular season performance, and make it sounds as if I am lobbying for Tito Landrum, Tom Lawless, and Kurt Bevaqua (and that’s just from the 80s) to be in the Hall of Fame?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Matthew Cornwell says:

    I already mentioned that I feel fgWAR overrates Pettitte considerably by using FIP, which ignores his terrible BABIP over his career, which contains enough batters-faced to matter.

    Surprising, is that the author is not sure if 67 WAR is enough anyway, considering Richie Ashburn, Joe Jackson, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, and Ryne Sandberg all have as many of fewer WAR than Pettitte.

    If I did think that fgWAR was the best interpretation for a pitcher with 16 years of experience, I would see him as a HOFer without hesitation.

    Excellent post by Steve H. detailing Glavine’s underrated postseason numbers. Losing 30% of games started in which he gave up 2 or fewer ER is testiment to why those Braves teams didn’t win truckloads of W.S. – it was their offense and bullpen failing a large majority of the time, and not Maddux and Glavine as revisionist historians have made-up.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. Matthew Cornwell says:

    When you look at rWAR, it isn’t even close:

    Glavine up 72 to 50

    Top 5 WAR seasons has Glavine up 31.6 to 25.7

    6+ WAR seasons: Glavine 3 to Pettitte 1
    5+ WAR seasons: Glavine 5 to Pettitte 3
    4+ WAR Seasons: Glavine 7 to Pettitte 3
    3+ WAR seasons: Glavine 12 to Pettitte 7

    Peak-adjusted WAR has Glavine up 94 to 68
    Peak weighted WAR has Glavine up 107 to 65

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CircleChange11 says:

      I wasn’t aware that it was even close without looking at WAR.

      Pettitte was very good, but he was petite (Har Har) compared to Glavine.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>