Angels Sign Downs
The old adage about death, taxes, and something consistent being the only fixtures in life has a baseball offseason equivalent. The Royals signing a former Braves’ hotshot, the Red Sox making a splash, and the Angels signing a late-inning reliever are offseason givens. The Halos penned Brian Fuentes and Fernando Rodney to a pair of two-year deals over the last two offseasons, and added this year’s version with Scott Downs on Friday night. Unlike his southpaw predecessor and bullpen teammate, Downs received a three-year deal, not two, with the total worth at $15 million.
Playing for the Blue Jays has its disadvantages. One of those is being treated as an afterthought on the American soil. Downs has long been one of the best relievers in baseball. Since converting to the bullpen permanently in 2007, his FIP have been (in ascending order): 3.24, 3.39, 3.33, and 3.03. The mainstream statistics reflect Downs’ success just as well, as his ERA is 2.36 over those 236 innings pitched. For comparison, Mariano Rivera’s career ERA is 2.23.
Downs is a lefty and with all that written you know he dispenses emotional pain to lefties without issue (Downs’ career line versus lefties: .223/.292/.339), but his career numbers versus righties (.274/.344/.428) don’t tell the improvement he’s managed since moving out of the rotation.
Righties haven’t hit above .250 against him in each of the last four seasons, they’ve managed an on-base percentage over .320 once, and a slugging percentage over .340 once.
The Angels signing Downs is a bit of a surprise. All along, the name supposedly on their wishlist was Mr. Rafael Soriano. And yet, Downs is presumably cheaper than Soriano (what, without the proven closer tag and all) while possibly being just as good:
Downs (2007-2010): 7.8 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 2.36 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.46 xFIP
Soriano (2007-2010): 9.84 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 2.61 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.60 xFIP
Whether Downs will be used as the Angels’ closer or just as a setup man shouldn’t mess with his WAR too much. He’s been worth at least one win in each relief season. That means, at $5 million per season, he’s as good of a bet to reach that plateau as any setup man in the game. If a team is going to pay a setup man market price, then it may as well be Downs, even if he’s got as many career blown saves as successful conversions (16 apiece).
What about the pick they have to give up? Doesn’t that make it a unfavorable deal?
I think their first rounder is protected so if anything they may lose a second rounder, but I’m not sure how that works.
They’ll lose their 2nd rounder (their 1st is indeed protected). However if they sign someone like Beltre (who I’m assuming Beltre is rated as a higher Type A) than that comp pick gets pushed down(s), pun intended!, to a 3rd rounder.
So long, Snakeface.
it was a 2nd round pick…could be bumped to a 3rd if the Halos sign another Type A FA. Their 1st pick is protected
I don’t think its fair to bring up saves to blown saves ratios with set up men given that only blown saves can be accumulated without pitching the 9th inning.
I know saves etc had little to do with the article, but I felt like this needed to be said.
I’m glad you got that off your chest.
Good point.
Way to be a jerk, John.
I think the point of bringing up Saves and Blown Saves is to show despite how good he is, those meaningless stats would say he’s no good at closing.
Now Soriano who has those great SV & BS stats will probably get loads more then Downs, yet not be markedly better.
Does that make the comment seem more relevant?
At this point, I am not so convinced that Soriano gets “loads more” money than Downs. And frankly, I am not sure who is going to sign him.
Probably the best remaining reliever, but with the Diamondbacks and Angles off the market, I dont see anyone that is going to $7 or $8 per year. He probably should have accepted arbitration from the Rays.
Maybe the Rangers if they miss on Lee, will come back and sign him to close and put Feliz in the rotation.
Downs has long been one of the best relievers in baseball, and he’s a good guy to cheer for. I hope he does well with the Angels, and gets some recognition he greatly deserves before blowing up (cough justin speier cough)
As a Jays fan, I’ll miss having Downs around. He was really professional and went from a scrap-heap reclamation project to one of the best relievers in baseball (a nice under-the-radar acquisition by the sometimes-obstreperous JP Ricciardi). But I’m glad Toronto will add to its stockpile of draft picks for 2011.
Also, Downs seemed to walk the tightrope at times last year. He doesn’t have power stuff, so he could become more hittable if he loses a bit of velocity, bite on his breaking stuff, or control generally (again, see Speier, Justin). I don’t expect him to be as dominant in 2011-13 as he was from 2007-2010. Hopefully, he maintains his dominance for at least a couple of more years for the Halos (except when they’re playing the Jays).
“Obstreperous?” Let me pull out the ol’ OED.
OED. obstreperous (adj.) 1. marked by a preference for established college-level talent (see Cooper, David) over high schoolers with upside 2. tending toward irrational dislike for Adam Dunn 3. of the view that the best-laid plans are organized into five-year building blocks.
I don’t think Downs is as “unfamous” as the article suggests. I think if he didn’t carry Type-A status, there would have been another Yankee/Sox bidding war for the guy.
The Red Sox already signed a Type-A Free Agent and the Yankees are preparng to sign one in Cliff Lee. Both organizations don’t lose much by also signing a 2nd Type-A in Downs. I think both the Yankees and Red Sox just decided not to pay Downs as much as the Angels.
So much for the Yankees signing Cliff Lee.
I am glad the halos got Downs cuz Fuentes sucks. Now they need to get Vladdy back.