Comments on: Are Hitters More Aggressive on First Pitches from Good Pitchers?

By: Jeff

Jeff — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 16:58:20 +0000

This is not what makes Chipper Jones a great hitter. The fact that Jones is a great hitter allows him to take a good first pitch strike and not be ‘behind in the count’. He knows that the pitcher still needs two strikes and if the pitcher is not a great pitcher, this is not a problem.

Also, both Jones and the average pitcher know this, so Chip can pretty much wait on a FB strike to drill on the first pitch without worrying about being behind. This means the pitcher has to throw good offspeed pitch for a strike, or he’ll be really behind to Jones 1-0. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen him do this. This also means that Chip has an even greater chance of getting to a 3-1 FB or a walk.

By: The A Team

The A Team — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:54:51 +0000

You highlight an interesting dynamic. The batter wants to attack the best pitch he’s going to see. The dominant pitcher (Roy Halladay and Greg Maddux are great examples) wants to retire hitters as easily as possible. Since both pitchers know that batters want the best pitch, they can place their stuff in a location that entices the hitter but also produces a ton of outs. The result is that the optimal hitting strategy coincides with the optimal pitching strategy. Since balls in play are converted to outs more often than hits and dominant pitchers suppress wOBA, the pitcher ‘wins’.

By: Tobias F.

Tobias F. — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:27:52 +0000

If I was a batter and I was up against a great pitcher(particularly one who has great command) I would definitely swing at the first pitch. I don’t know how true it is but I often hear analysts say during games that often times the best pitch you are going to see is the first one because pitchers hate falling behind(obviously) and just try to get it over. I think they’re less likely to try to pump up their MPH on their fastball and paint the black or throw the perfect curveball on a 0-0 count. If you don’t swing and that pitch does get over the plate which percentages show it probably will be you are in a world of trouble.

Of course there are dangers in this because the last thing you want to do is give a great pitcher in easy out by getting out on the first pitch.

By: MGL

MGL — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:13:23 +0000

Yup, absolutely fascinating stuff. I was thinking the same thing as Tango. I want to see the breakdown by batter overall quality and perhaps also by batter “eye” however you want to quantify that.

Mike, I’m pretty sure that Chipper, as well as most batters, and certainly the ones with good eyes, are going to swing more often at pitches in the zone against pitchers who throw more in the zone, regardless of their FIP.

To take it to the extreme, if I know a pitcher throws the first pitch in the zone 90% of the time, I am ready to swing at just about anything, and I will swing a lot. I am rarely going to accidentally swing at a pitch out of the zone, since the pitcher hardly ever throws a pitch out of the zone.

OTOH, if a pitcher throws it in the zone only 25% of the time, I am probably just taking the first pitch, since I don’t want to make a mistake and swing at a bad pitch.

By: Mike Green

Mike Green — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:53:10 +0000

I wonder how Chipper’s first pitch Z-swing rate breaks down among the low xFIP pitchers, depending on the pitcher’s control record. You would think that he might be less inclined to swing at a first pitch strike from an overpowering pitcher with less than stellar control than a Greinke/Halladay type.

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:40:47 +0000

There’s a typo in the second sentence.

It reads: “with more walk than strikeouts in his career”

While it should be walks than strikeouts

By: Sal Paradise

Sal Paradise — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:23:36 +0000

Also, to avoid clutter, is there any chance you could split the charts up into two? The first would show first-pitch, the second would show all others. Then you could show multiple-lines (like tango suggests) on the same graph.

I would also suggest breaking up the wOBA scores so that you have an equal sample size in each (there are 35 qualified batters over .380, and only 3 under .290), preferably by plate appearances.

And your work, as always, is awesome.