Comments on: Are First Round Draft Picks Overpaid?

By: Coletta Tapio

Coletta Tapio — Sun, 27 Jun 2010 08:23:28 +0000

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By: Michael

Michael — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:41:56 +0000

I’m interested in the variance of the surplus value for each set of picks, since I think risk should be a consideration as it is in free agency. For each big FA starter that signs you have a Pedro Martinez who pitches 1.5 healthy years of a 4 year deal. I wonder if the draft pick average surplus is skewed by a few big performers.

By: han

han — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 01:29:58 +0000

If over 75% of first round picks never make it to free agency, how can you use free agent prices to ascribe any sort of value to a first round pick?

By: Jay

Jay — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 00:56:46 +0000

Rudeness? I don’t think there was any. You published a piece of pure analysis, and analysis goes, it was poor, and I said so. Welcome to the big leagues.

By: han

han — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 23:39:48 +0000

so even in 2005, one of the greatest draft years ever, there is only a 50-50 chance that you are going to get a decent player. The reality is that a large percentage of first rounders don’t even get to the majors, much less have any sort of career. What percentage of first rounders even make it to free agency? Figure 3-5 years in the minors, and 6 years before free agency, and you’d have to look back into the 90′s to figure it out. On a quick look, over 25% of the first round picks in the 90′s never even made it out of the minor leagues, and over 50% of the players who made it to the ML never accrued enough service time to qualify for free agency.

the idea that

By: Blogger Bill from Elmhurst, IL

Blogger Bill from Elmhurst, IL — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:23:54 +0000

Proof once again that stats can be manipulated to make whatever argument you wish to pursue. Take a look at the MLB draft class of 2005, and you’ll quickly see that picks #15 through the supplemental 1st round picks have produced only 2 (count ‘em), quality big leaguers, both coincidentally enough in Boston.
***
There are a couple of “fringe” players in the (mostly bad), lot, but for the most part it was an awful lot of money MLB owners spent on a bunch of stiffs.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 17:28:09 +0000

I actually DO live in the area Dave, which is why I have to shake my head at the incompetence with which the Lerner’s have handled their franchise.

The Lerner’s forced the taxpayers to fund their ugly monstrosity of a stadium. They refused to pay rent for a stadium because it wasn’t “game ready”, while actually playing games in the stadium!

They incompetently hired Jim Bowden and signed off on his poor treatment of the Alfonso Soriano debacle, the collection of any and all Reds has-beens, the Frank Robinson firing, the Manny Acta firing, the whole thing with them has been crap!

Outside of the good luck of Ryan Zimmerman, the team has been pretty much miss on all of its major player personnel decisions. Rizzo seems to be doing fine, but I wonder how much the Lerner’s will be willing to let him spend on the draft going forward to properly develop this franchise.