Are the Indians For Real?
April is over, and as expected, the Cleveland Indians have the best record in baseball. Okay, you’re right, not one single person on this planet expected that. ZIPS projected 71 wins for the Tribe, while the readership here at FanGraphs was a little more optimistic, penciling them in for 73 victories. They’re currently on pace for 114 wins, and would need to play .400 baseball the rest of the way in order for the crowd’s projection to come true.
It’s not just wins and losses, either. The Indians have the best run differential in baseball (+47) and they’re second in the majors in team WAR (+10.5), trailing only the offensive juggernaut in St. Louis. The Indians aren’t winning a bunch of nail-biters, but, instead, they’re pounding their opponents into submission. At 5.41 runs scored per game, they’re nearly keeping pace with the Yankees offense, and yet they’re simultaneously holding opponents to just 3.67 runs per game. Only Oakland and Anaheim are preventing runs at a better rate.
So, 27 games of excellent baseball later, we have to ask the obvious question: are the Indians for real?
On the offensive side of things, the answer might just be yes. They probably won’t score the 875 runs they’re on pace for, but this is a team with some real talent at hitting the baseball. Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana were expected to anchor the lineup, but both of them have scuffled during the season’s first month, and instead the Indians have been carried by Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. Both have overcome significant health concerns to mash during the opening few weeks of the season, and while I wouldn’t expect either to keep up their current levels of performance, they have shown elite abilities before — getting production from those two isn’t exactly unheard of.
Perhaps more importantly, however, have been the quality of the younger role players. We talked about Jack Hannahan‘s crazy April on Friday, but beyond his performance, the Indians have also gotten high quality production from Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, and Asdrubal Cabrera. In fact, not one single position player on the Tribe has a negative WAR, as even Austin Kearns is off-setting his lousy hitting with decent defensive value.
Several of these guys are going to cool off, but Santana and Choo should take a step forward, and, overall, this offense should be above average at least — especially if Sizemore and Hafner can stay healthy. There’s some real talent on the position player side of things, and so I don’t know that I see a huge regression coming there.
On the pitching side, though, things are a bit different. Justin Masterson looks like he may have finally figured out how to get lefties out, but even if he’s taken a real step forward, he’s not going to sustain a 2.25 ERA. And, unfortunately for Cleveland, you can make a similar claim about nearly every pitcher on the roster.
Their HR/FB rate is just 6.5%. Only the Mariners are giving up fewer home runs per fly ball among American League pitching staffs. Additionally, their BABIP is .272, fourth lowest in the AL, and fifth lowest in baseball. Neither of those numbers are going to continue going forward at the same rate, as the team’s ERA will almost certainly move more towards the 4.04 xFIP they are putting up. This just isn’t a great pitching staff, and while the results have been good, there’s a ton of room for regression there.
However, even with a pitching staff that is due for a fall, this team certainly looks better than we thought headed into the season, and the rest of the division looks demonstrably weaker. In fact, the two teams most generally picked as the top contenders for the AL Central — the Twins and White Sox — are 10 games behind the Indians already. The Tigers are 7 1/2 games back. Whether it’s real or not, the Indians have amassed a huge lead over the three teams that were considered to be the cream of the division’s crop.
Yes, there are 135 games to play, but Minnesota and Chicago are now going to have to put it into another gear to take the division back from the Tribe’s hands. If we project the Indians at a .500 winning percentage going forward — which seems about right to me, assuming that Sizemore and Hafner can stay reasonably healthy — the Indians would end the season with 86 or 87 wins. To finish with 88 wins, the Twins and White Sox would each have to play .586 baseball the rest of the way.
That’s possible, but that’s better than either team was projected to play before the season began, and given what we’ve seen in the first month, it’s hard to argue that the preseason projections were too conservative. And remember, those respective records would result in the Indians losing the division on the final weekend of the season.
They’re not as good as they’ve played, and there is some real regression coming, but given how the first month has played out in the AL Central, the Indians are almost certainly going to be in this race in September. I don’t know if they’ll be able to hang on to their early lead, but it’s large enough where they certainly aren’t going to give it up without a fight.
Good article, thanks.
It’s the curse of #6.
what do you mean?
I’m guessing he means Rocky Colavito (who was wearing number 6 when the Tribe made the first of their two disastrous trades involving him).
thanks, Joey
Twins were rated #6 org this year
Nice, for anyone else who didn’t get it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_Rocky_Colavito ; http://www.rockycolavitofans.com/ ; http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colavro01.shtml
I had no idea about Rocky Colavito. I was referring to the Twins’ awful start and their being the #6 org on the FanGraphs rankings this year.
ahh, okay.
Well the Curse of Rocky Colavito absolutely loves to tease and play extreme games with peoples expectations every couple years, so I wouldn’t count it out completely…
exactly what I have been thinking about the twins the entire year
The Indians’ record is certainly buoyed by their schedule. They’ve played Baltimore, Seattle, KC twice, and the other teams in division. Plus they caught BOS at the right time (in the first week). So are they for real – maybe not. I think they are still worse than the better teams like NYY, TEX, even LAA.
But I think playing .500 the rest of the way is certainly possible however. And with the current state of affairs, winning the division certainly seems realistic in that scenario. Of course, so does a first round exit in the playoffs, but we’ll cross that road when we come to it.
For now though, just crank up up Tom Hamilton and enjoy the ride, my fellow Cleveland Fans!
BOS is pretty good, have been good, will probably continue to be …
When exactly, 2012?
…beck?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos
9th toughest SOS
Last I checked KC was one of the top offensive clubs in the AL, ranking between 1st and 4th in most offensive categories. So while yes, they got the Red Sox at the right time, and yes, they dropped 2/3 vs LAA, but they played them hard. The two LAA losses were 2-0 and 4-3 in the 12th, and the 2-0 loss was against Haren who’s been stellar so far. Their strength of schedule hasn’t been as weak as it would seem.
2 things along the randomness lines that jump out.
Bullpen
White Sox lead AL in xFIP, but have .320 BABIP and 60.6 LOB%.
Indians at 9th in xFIP, and have .259 BABIP and 74.7 LOB%.
RISP Hitting
Indians=.319/.403/.486
White Sox=.262/.331/.341
It is great to see the big walkups in Cleveland and it is a great story, but am definitely keeping in mind a 12-2 chunk of this was against Seattle/Balt/KC. The next two months schedule is nearly cupcake free. Looking forward to watching how it all works out.
I’d counter that KC is 13-8 when not playing Cleveland, Baltimore 13-10, and Seattle 13-13. The Indians schedule definitely gets tougher, interleague would seem especially brutal, but the White Sox have lost 3 in a row to Baltimore and were swept by Detroit earlier. The Twins were swept by KC. Going 12-2 against inferior opponents and playing .500 against better opponents is basically what a good team will do, right? I think the Indians have an excellent chance at the division, mostly because I think every other team in the division will struggle to finish above .500, and the Indians still get to play those teams many times. In the Twins case, they’ll struggle to win 70 games unless Mauer, Morneau and Liriano magically recover.
I’d actually be more concerned about the Indians hitting being their bane going forward than their pitching. They have a team FIP of 3.68, so it’s not like the pitching’s been all smoke and mirrors. The guys who’re their best bullpen prospects are still in the minors, Nick Hagadone, Josh Judy and Zach Putnam, so they have the ability to replace some current bullpen characters who inevitable either struggle or suffer injuries. For the starters, Masterson and Tomlin have overperformed, Carrasco and Carmona however have been injured/underperformed. In Tomlin’s case I’m sure he’ll get beat up a few times going forward, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ERA up around 4.50 pretty quickly, but he’s the number 5 starter – even the Phillies aren’t 5 deep. Masterson likely won’t maintain his current success, but if he’s can have an ERA that matches his FIP from last year, that’s good enough.
The hitters on the other hand, are pretty much the same cast of characters who’ve struggled mightily over the past few years. A healthy Sizemore’s a 6-7 win upgrade over Trevor Crowe, but can Hafner continue to be an upgrade over himself, or will his shoulder start bugging him, or will his foot problem linger? Brantley’s looked like a different guy this year, turning on the ball instead of dinking it into left field, but who knows if he can keep it up. Laporta it depends on the at bat, he’s still falling into bad habits and swinging with only his arms a bunch of times, he could break either way.
“even the Phillies aren’t 5 deep.” I think that statement is a little mis-leading. Are you claiming the Indians top-four starters are as good, or even close to, Phillies’ top-four? If not, what does it matter that the Indians are “five-deep”? Besides, Joe Blanton 2010 xFIP – 3.87, 2011 xFIP – 3.41. Talbot 4.85/3.51; Tomlin 2010 4.76/4.02. By your own logic the Indians aren’t even 4 deep (or even 2 deep, since with the exception of Carrasco’s 2010, EVERY pitcher on the Indians rotation had worse xFIP numbers than Blanton… How’s that for not being “5 deep”?)
Carmona is pretty much what he is, a decent starter who really isn’t a staff ace but masquerading as one in Cleveland. Carrasco have been just an above-average starter. Tomlin you already addressed, and Talbot has only made two starts this year so far and really isn’t all that much better than Tomlin. Only serious upside on that staff is Masterson, and I don’t think anyone is convinced that he’s for real… yet. I rather put my money on Haffner and Grady staying healthy and producing than on that questionable rotation.
phillie697, my comment had nothing to do with the rest of the rotation, nor am I comparing their rotation to the Phillies, just that it always seems when anyone anywhere talks about the Indians pitching, the first comment is usually about Tomlin not being as good as his ERA indicates. Well, yeah. And so what? He’s the number 5 starter. He’s allowed to be not that good … I wouldn’t consider Carmona the “ace” by any means, before the season I considered him the 3rd best pitcher on the staff after Masterson and Carrasco. Talbot is on the DL for at least another month and will be replaced by Alex White, who looked pretty good, so Talbot’s not even in the conversation for now. The Indians by no means need an ace, or a sub 3.00 FIP, to win the division by a large margin. They do need their offense to keep scoring runs.
I just don’t see what about a team with a 3.48 ERA and 3.68 FIP screams major regression. Their team ERA was about that FIP number in the second half of last year, for what’s a similar cast of characters. The only guy on the starting staff whose results are drastically out performing past performance and peripherals is Tomlin.
Well the Indians are contenders just by the virtue of their big lead in the division, so that’s a given. And using FIP is where you fail to see the problem with the Indian’s staff. Unless a team has horrible fielding or just plain unlucky, team FIP is pretty much going to be close to team ERA. Had you looked at the team xFIP, you’ll see where the huge problem is. Indian’s pitching staff has allowed only 6.5% HR/FB, hence why their xFIP is 4.04 compared to an ERA of 3.48. For example, Masterson has allowed just ONE HR all year, with a 3.3% HR/FB. None of those numbers are going to be sustainable.
I really don’t think xFIP is a very good yardstick to be using there with such a small sample size. And 4.04 is still not bad, it’s identical to the Tigers, with the Twins and Royals are at the bottom of the league in xFIP.
Masterson has only given up 30 fly balls the entire year, 5 of which were infield flies. So 25 fly balls into the outfield. To bring him up to the league average HR/FB rate, that would be all of an additional 2 HRs.
2 additional HRs at an avg of 2 ERs each is 4 more ERs over 40 innings… Which would raise his ERA by 1.1 to 3.35. You make it sound trivial when it is really not.
It is trivial. For one thing you’re talking about an absurdly small sample. It’s pretty tough to have an ERA that low unless you are giving up HRs at a below average rate. No one finishes the year with an xFIP of 2.20 (an xFIP below 3 is very rare), but pitchers do finish seasons with ERAs of 2.20. If you have a 2.20 ERA you are pretty much by definition doing things like giving up HRs at below a league average rate. xFIP is useful as a predictive stat, like, if Masterson goes this entire year giving up 1 HR out of every 25 fly balls that leave the infield, and has an ERA of 2.20, we wouldn’t really expect him to duplicate that performance next year, and his xFIP would be better to use to predict his ERA for the next year. But it’s silly to use it to basically say he hasn’t pitched as well as the numbers indicate. xFIP isn’t designed for that.
And no one thinks Masterson’s going to finish this year with a 2.10 ERA. He will have some bad games. He has pitched well, hitters are barely getting the ball in the air out of the infield much less hitting them to the warning track, it’s just unlikely that he’ll continue to pitch this consistently well and hitters will continue to not take advantage when he does miss and knock a few out of the park and inflate the ERA. He got “lucky” in his last start against Detroit, he was wild the first 2 innings, and left a bunch of pitches over the plate but Detroit didn’t really take advantage, eventually grounded into a double play and Masterson found his control and pitched very well the rest of the game. He’ll face better offenses, guys will take advantage. That doesn’t take away from what he’s done to this point.
I thought the point of discussion to begin with is whether the Indians’ pitching staff will regress… Isn’t your admission that there is no way Masterson will pitch as well as he has basically conceding to the argument that you disagreed with in the first place? I made NO assertion anywhere that he hasn’t done well so far, or that he isn’t going to continue to be a good pitcher going forward (My exact phrase was “Only serious upside on that staff is Masterson, and I don’t think anyone is convinced that he’s for real… yet”). I was merely supporting my contention that the Indians’ pitching staff will NOT perform as well as their numbers have been for the past month. Seems like you’re agreeing now?
no dude. Re-read my first comment, you took somewhat hilarious offense because I dared to mention “Phillies” in the same sentence with “indians” pitching, completely misinterpreting what I said.
There’s regression, and there’s REGRESSION. That the Indians’ pitching won’t be quite as fantastic as it’s been for the first 28 games, does not mean that the Indians pitching can’t be good for the whole year. I mean, they’ve given up less than 3 runs per game for the past 26 games. Will that continue? Hell no. If they give up 0.5 more runs per game from here on out, will that destroy their chances? Hell no. The point of my post was whether the offense will continue scoring anywhere near their current 5.25 runs per game is the bigger issue, and the bigger question mark, because the pitching has been doing this since last year’s All Star break, whereas the offense was atrocious the entire year last year, and other than the upgrade of a healthyish Sizemore over Crowe, on paper these guys shouldn’t be better than last year.
Well you and I will have to agree to disagree then. For me it’s a determination based on talent. Indians have a lot of talent in their lineup. Haffner, Sizemore, Choo, Santana, LaPorta… These guys all have serious pedigree. Yes, even LaPorta. The guy has absolutely pristine minor league numbers, why couldn’t he have figured it out like what Smoak and Wallace is doing this year? Plus the rest of the supporting cast isn’t all that bad either. Yes, they won’t keep up the current pace, and yes injury is a concern, but like I said, it’s a talent thing for me. Their rotation just doesn’t have the same talent as the lineup. If I’m a betting man, and that’s how we started this discussion, I would bet on the lineup more than I would on the rotation.
And btw, this isn’t a discussion about the Indian’s chances, at least not for me. A huge lead in a terrible division… I don’t think Indians fans should be worried :) So your comment that the pitching staff might give up half a run more for the rest of a year, while not significant to you, is very relevant to me. I think they might even give up more than that, although I think half a run more is a decent estimate.
which is fine. I think though that the media, and probably for the same reasons baseball fans in general, including Indians fans, tend to underestimate the Indians’ pitching talent, based on what transpired over the past couple years. It’s not like Carmona, Masterson, Carrasco and Alex White don’t have any pedigree. And Tomlin and Talbot have had good minor league success, and are decent as number 4-5 starters.
To run to their current 21-9 record, they Indians have a run differential of +49. If the pitching staff had given up 0.5 more runs per game to date, it would be +34. That’s why I don’t see it as an issue. I don’t think the pitching is THIS good, but it’s legitimately good, you know, barring health issues. I could easily see the offense going down about 1.5 runs per game from their current pace if things break the wrong way. Having confidence in an offense driven by Hafner and Sizemore would make a lot of sense if this were 2007. Hafner’s been a shell his ’04-’06 self for the previous 3 years, this is a guy who said a couple years ago that his shoulder was so bad it hurt to lift a fork, and there was basically no surgery done to correct anything – they “cleaned out” his shoulder a couple years ago but didn’t really find a problem. Sizemore hadn’t been healthy since ’08, and still can’t play every day. The offense has a lot of upside, but the downside is huge. It’s all injury risks, unproven prospects, and Choo. It’s why before this season, I couldn’t even make any guess to what this team would be like. Winning 65 games wouldn’t have been shocking, and winning 90 games wouldn’t either. On the other hand, I expected the starters to be average to slightly above average and the bullpen to be good to very good.
Your assessment of the Indians before the season was exactly my assessment of the Indians. The problem is that was my assessment of the Indians for a few years now, and every year I was expecting them to play better. This year I just gave up and lowered expectations. I can see where you are coming from… Perhaps we are both right. I do think that the Indians will probably play .500 ball the rest of the season (altho they haven’t slowed down yet…), and I agree with you the Indians have an average pitching staff. So to play .500 ball, I guess that means they’ll have an average offense to go with that average pitching, making us both right about the regressions lol.
Good thing the Indians have a 10 game lead on the White Sox I guess….
I think.at this point, it doesn’t matter if they are “for real” or not.
What matters is they have a huge lead in the division (as you point out), and can essentially, and perhaps probably, win the division by playing .500 ball the rest of the way.
They could experience a very large “regression”, and STILL win the division.
April has just been an “everything goes right for the Tribe month”. They’ve played well, they’ve been fortunate, and their competitors within the division have underperformed.
As for the Indians, there’s only one thing to do “Win the whole %&*#$%@ thing.” Yes, I just quoted Major League.
Win the whole bleeping thing…awesome!
Plus they might be able to reclaim Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn before he heads back to the California Penal League
I like the Indians but they wont keep this up.
Their offense is for real, starting pitching is pitching over their heads and their bullpen is pitching slightly over theirs as well. They will be competitive in the AL Central and could certainly win the division though.
Who will compete against them? As a Twins fan, I can assure you they are not 2011 contenders unless something drastic change (like a SS and 2B, and two starting pitchers are gifted to the team).
Tribe starting pitching was #4 in AL after AS Break last year.
Bullpen was #2 in AL.
going on 4 months now of good pitching.
Seattle/Balt/KC are 39-30 (.565) combined against the rest of the league. So the Indians going 12-2 against them so far is still impressive.
Randomness and small sample aside, are you suggesting that Sea/Balt/KC are all .565 teams? Unless you’re willing to claim that .565 record is more indicative of their true talent levels, it does nothing to disprove the claim that the Indians have played quite a few cupcake teams so far.
They’re probably not even .500 teams but KC and Baltimore at least probably aren’t quite the punching bags they’ve been for the last several years. Their schedule won’t get too tough as long as the team stays in the AL Central.
Dave mentioned the twins and white sox as the indians’ biggest competitors. We shouldn’t count out the tigers – a lot of people picked them to win the division.
“April is over, and as expected, the Cleveland Indians have the best record in baseball. Okay, you’re right, not one single person on this planet expected that.”
Noone except Mat Kovach!
Hardball Times staff predictions:
Mat Kovach CLE KC MIN DET CHW
I picked them to compete for the division as well. Since Fangraphs had no clue though, “nobody” predicted.
As a Sox fan, I have to keep researching for arbitrary stats like this: the ’93 Braves were 10GB on July 22, chasing a Giants team that won 103 games. The Braves caught them and passed them in September, and this Indians team isn’t a 103 win caliber team.
Then I realize the Sox don’t have 3 Hall of Famers in their rotation…
Things will be fine. They were 9.5 out last June 9th and in first July 11. The Sox are not going to go on a run like that this year, but they also aren’t chasing a team that is going to win 94.
When the Sox return home June 1 after playing 30 of 43 on the road, they will have something like 60 of their final 105 in Chicago and will be done with all trips to Oak/Tex/Bos/NY/Tor/TB for the year. Ton of home games, ton of division games, and 5 series of inter league against Cubs/DBacks/Rox/Cubs/Nats. It’s like the schedule makers were trying to see if the Sox could match last year’s rise from the dead.
Perhaps the larger story here is the decline of the AL’s perennial powerhouses along with the utter mediocrity, at best, of the league’s other teams. The Yankees’ starting pitching is going to be a big problem (despite the respectable early season performance), the Red Sox clearly have issues, Tampa Bay’s offense seems relatively weak, the Angels aren’t what they once were, the Rangers are banged up and did not replace the departed Cliff Lee, while the Twins and White Sox are both in free fall.
Given this context, perhaps one of the also rans was bound to get off to such a fast start?
Great article!
My biggest concern certainly lies in the pitching, especially since the injury bug has already hit the rotation. I’m fairly confident that our bullpen can keep up the numbers IF the rotation can keep the team in it most days. The thing to remember is, while our rotation is mostly unproven, it is talented and the talented goes about 8 guys deep. Therefore, while experience isn’t there, depth certainly is. I think that will prove important, if it isn’t already apparent enough.
One more thing, on the offensive side of the ball, Sizemore is healthy for the first time in years, and Hafner is back to form. That along with outstanding veteran presence makes the Indians a team to be reckoned with.
I’m in Philly but have adopted the Indians lately and I’m wondering-why all the down opinions on Tomlin?. He had nothing but success throughout his 500+ minor league innings and a solid first year. Considering he only has 100 major league innings I’m not sure you can even talk about his past performance and career average yet. Same for Carrasco. I haven’t watched either pitch a whole game yet so that’ll probably answer some questions.
Also, I saw Masterson pitch for the first time this weekend and I have a hard time understanding why he’s struggled. Big fastball with movement, changeup more than 10mph slower, slider, funky delivery, facial hair…what’s the problem? Control?
His change up is the key, and it hasn’t been this good in the past. His fastball/slider combo is widely considered to be nasty, which is why he has so utterly dominated righties.
He’s a good pitcher. The difference between him being a #3/4 and being a #2/3 guy is his change. I hope its for real as I’m a big fan, but even if he is, he isn’t “this good”.
His problem was lefties.
Dave I don’t follow you. You answer the question–”are the Indians for real?” by pointing out that the answer might just be yes, but that would depend on two players remaining healthy: Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. Based on their histories I think they have as much chance of doing that as the Braves’ Chipper Jones or the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton.But even if both players prove me wrong in that regard, offensively I don’t believe either Grady or Pronk are as good as you’re hoping. Pronk will have to show that he can hit the way he once did for the entire season–and at his age I’m not betting on it. As for Grady, his production with runners in scoring position (for his career) had been underwhelming considering the Rock Star status he seems to enjoy in the media. In my mind, the Indians’ hopes for a robust offense this year rest on Shin Soo Choo waking up at the plate, Asdrubal Cabrera continuing to hit and Matt LaPorta finally living up to his potential (as well as Hafner and Sizemore continuing their current output). I’d love to see all of that happen since a resurrection of baseball in the city of Cleveland would be outstanding for the American League, but I’m not holding my breath either…
They are for real, for the first 1/4 of the season. But, do remember that the season is a marathon, not a sprint. Who knows where and how the injury bug will hit. Well, who other than Minnesota that is. Who knows where and when ineffectiveness will hit.. other than Chicago that is… Point is, KC and Cle will go thru dry spells due to injury (minor and major), ineffective spells, etc etc. Who cares who is in the lead of a marathon after 5 miles.
Who cares who is in the lead of a marathon after 5 miles.
The guy 3 miles behind the leader?
True enough, and I think that’s the point.
The Indians have racked up such a big lead in the first month that it is possible for them to win the division by playing .500 ball the rest of the way.
It’s significant. No, it’s not a guarantee …. but it’s a HUGE lead … and no other team in the division is of such high quality that they can rattle off .600 play for the rest of the year.
The Indians will go through a rough patch, and other ALC teams will surge. But the question is not “Who cares who is in the lead at the end of April?”, the question is “Are the ALC teams good enough to overcome a 7.5-10 GB deficit?”
MIN, CWS, and DET ain’t looking too promising.
Unbelievable that their best threat might be a KC team lifted up by a bunch of young call-ups later in the year.
I’m hesitant to count the Sox out, because they can (and have) gone on crazy runs before, and DET is a good team. The problem with DET is that their good players are performing, and there’s likely not any injection of talent to boost them anywhere. MIN is a regression/injury mess.
Phillie697, I would worry about your Phillys as their pitching has not been all that it was suppose to be.
Leading all of MLB in FIP, xFIP and pitching WAR is not all that it was suppose to be? You must had some ridiculously unrealistic high standards that even I as a Phillies fan do not.
I think he’s being sarcastic because people were calling it the best rotation ever. Which I still don’t think it is. The age of Halladay/Lee/Oswalt means that one of them will probably have a subpar year. They might lead the league in a bunch of stuff, but there’s a rotation like that every few years.
Okay… I’ll accept your premise, except… The pitching staff that is compared most to the Phillies 2011 staff is the 1993 Braves, considered one of the best pitching staff of all time… which had a team ERA of 3.14 and FIP of 3.50. No offense, but right now, the Phillies pitching staff is beating both of those numbers. So exactly how have they not lived up to even those lofty expectations?
this is the American League though. NOBODY has pitching. It’s like how a few years ago the NL had no good hitting teams, well right now, the 30-10 worst pitching teams are probably mostly composed of AL teams.
Plus you can’t just look at them, look at the other teams. The White Sox are pretty old are they not? The Twins always seem to piece things together and get good seasons out of guy, well if that doesn’t happen then what? Especially with injuries. This division is a lot more even than people thought.
Anyone know on what day everyone would have played everyone at least once? I mean, with the exception of interleague obviously.
Reading these posts,other forums and listening to all comments crack me up. The question is “are the indians for real?” From what I have seen, they look pretty real to me. Before this season started I was one of the only ones who said they would compete, as I did at the end of 04, and 06. This was based on the second half they put up last year, and the fact that they are pretty much injury free right now. What really makes me laugh are the indians fans who are still saying “probably not” or “I don’t believe it yet.” ect ect… What I read from these comments are people who are afraid to be the ones who said it now should they fall down the line.
Folks, look at it from this prospective. The indians have built a lead large enough to play 500 from here on out, and still compete, and possibly win the division. That is considering they start regressing to that now, and there is no sign of it, as they beat oakland in convincing fashion last night.
Will they regress a bit? Probably, as winning 114 games is not easy for anyone. But here is the thing… they don’t need to win 114 games to win the division. And in the playoffs, anything can happen. So I would say they are absolutely for real!
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