A’s Get Jed Lowrie, Astros Get Power

Some weeks ago, there was talk that the A’s were interested in trading for Jed Lowrie, while in return, the Astros were interested in getting Chris Carter and a young pitcher. Sometimes rumors reported in such a way are based in fact, and sometimes rumors reported in such a way are based in fantasy. Monday evening, the A’s swung a trade to get themselves Jed Lowrie. As part of the return, the Astros got themselves Chris Carter and a young pitcher.

The actual, complete specifics:

To Oakland: Jed Lowrie, Fernando Rodriguez
To Houston: Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

On the one hand, it was a trade that came out of nowhere, while, on the other hand, there was that talk weeks ago, and Lowrie’s long been a Billy Beane sort. This is an unusual trade for Oakland in two ways: Beane now feels like his active roster is complete, and Beane has referred to this very move as being a move for now, rather than later. Not that Lowrie is a year away from free agency or anything, but this is a move designed to make the team better immediately.

Lowrie was an available, talented shortstop. Something interesting, here, is that Lowrie won’t be slotted in to play short in Oakland, or even really anywhere regularly. The A’s signed Hiroyuki Nakajima to handle the shortstop duties, and there are a number of options at both second and third base. Lowrie is capable of playing all around the infield, and to Oakland, his versatility was one of his biggest selling points. What Lowrie does is bolster Oakland’s depth.

To get better, you can either upgrade your regulars, or you can make sure you have insurance. Lowrie is around, now, in case Nakajima struggles with his transition to the US. Lowrie is around, now, in case no one emerges at second out of Jemile Weeks, Scott Sizemore, and others. Lowrie is around, now, in case no one emerges at third. Lowrie can also cut it at first, so he’s a valuable player to have at the ready. For his career, he’s been a league-average hitter, and while he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who won’t find Oakland as forgiving as Houston, the shift is unlikely to cripple his offense. A healthy Lowrie lets Oakland breathe easier.

Of course, health has always been an issue, and Lowrie’s hardly the most durable infielder in the game. What we don’t understand very well at present is the significance of injury-proneness going forward. Some players can’t hold up to the stresses, while others just get unlucky. If Lowrie continues to bounce on and off the disabled list, no one’s going to say Oakland couldn’t have seen it coming, but this is a known gamble. And Lowrie’s got another year of team control after this one, so if he works out, he’ll stick around.

If you’re wondering what a Fernando Rodriguez is, it’s a right-handed reliever with a mid-90s fastball. Rodriguez also has a curve and a track record of striking out both lefties and righties, but the walks are a thing, as they frequently are with this profile. Rodriguez is bullpen depth that could become quality bullpen depth in the event of an improvement, which is a statement that applies to hundreds. He’s 28 and surprisingly experienced, and I say “surprising” because I assume you don’t know much about the Astros’ recent big-league bullpens.

On the Astros’ end, Lowrie was one of the team’s better players, and he was also relatively expensive. The Astros’ team payroll now is smaller than the Astros’ team second baseman, but no one out there thinks the Astros are pulling a Marlins, keeping costs down to keep profit up. The Astros are just in the process of building from scratch, and that’s something that everybody understands. For an injury-prone middle infielder who wasn’t going to be around to help the next good Astros team, this isn’t too bad of a haul.

Peacock is the big prospect, but Carter is the primary get, after last year slugging .514 in 260 plate appearances. For the first time, Carter carried his triple-A success into the majors, putting up an impressive 137 wRC+ that wasn’t boosted by an artificially high BABIP. One thing that made Carter expendable was that he didn’t stand to get a lot of playing time in Oakland this season. Another thing that made Carter expendable is his difficulty making consistent contact, as one out of every three of his major-league swings to date has whiffed. The Astros are in a better position to give Carter a chance and see if he can keep it up. Last year’s numbers, I mean, not the whiffing.

Carter’s newly 26, and the Astros think his power could play long-term. In that event, he could be the team’s future first baseman or DH. More likely is that Carter gets exposed as a guy who doesn’t do enough well to offset the drawbacks, but with his 2012 he’s earned this opportunity, and Houston is a perfect place to grant it.

Peacock was one of Oakland’s best pitching prospects, even after posting an ERA over 6 last season in triple-A. The good news is that he averaged better than a strikeout an inning. The bad news is that he gave up too many fly balls and threw just 60% strikes. Newly 25, Peacock is close to big-league ready, and he has a full enough repertoire, but right now he doesn’t profile as much more than a #4 or a #3, if things work out. The very top pitching prospects in baseball are unreliable, and Peacock isn’t one of the very top pitching prospects in baseball.

At last, there’s Stassi, a 21-year-old catcher who’s almost a 22-year-old catcher. He was a bigger deal when he was drafted than he is now, and he’s had his own injury problems without having yet advanced beyond high-A. But you could do a lot worse as a third piece, and because Stassi is a backstop, he’ll be granted more patience. He’s far too young to write off.

For Oakland, the 2013 infield just got better, and deeper. The team’s better able to absorb an individual disappointment, improving the team’s odds of staying in the race in the division. For Houston, the organization has more talent in it now than it did a day ago. That’s the Astros’ top priority, and they can worry about surer bets down the road, when they’re not these Astros anymore.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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astrosjordan
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astrosjordan
3 years 7 months ago

Read this article backwards. Not sure why.

snuggle frog
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snuggle frog
3 years 7 months ago

I actually do that all the time with FG articles. The last paragraphs usually provides a great summary.

Turbo
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Turbo
3 years 7 months ago

Does this increase the likelihood that Brandon Moss will get a legitimate shot at regular playing time?

Nick O
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Nick O
3 years 7 months ago

I think he was already going to get regular playing time. Now it’s either him, an outfielder, or Daric Barton.

Andrew
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Andrew
3 years 7 months ago

Also Barton hits lefties better than righties, in the event that Moss struggles against the former.

Forrest Gumption
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Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

Brandon Moss will be as close as the everyday 1B as theyre going to get, with Daric Barton (better defender) and I’d say either Donaldson or Lowrie seeing time there too. But Oakland’s clearly high on Moss, in a Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion late-blooming type. He did own the second highest ISO in all of baseball for players with the sam or more PA’s than him, behind Stanton, however, Chris Carter was also 9th in that regard. Carter for Lowrie alone is a iffy, but adding Peacock & Stassi really tips this deal Houston’s way.

If you break it down and if in November you said Beane would go “win-now” and trade Cole, Peacock, Carter, Stassi, Pennington, Cowgill & Cabrera, you’d expect it to be a little more than for Lowrie, Jaso & Young. That package on its own probably brings in an elite player. As an A’s fan, you know those 3, plus Nakajima and Sizemore are going to be additions to help this team into contention, but to make that jump, you pretty much always have to lose trades. Hurts to watch in the offseason, but the regular season wins more than make up for it.

mlbfan23
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mlbfan23
3 years 7 months ago

cabrera, stassi were disappointing fairly high draft picks. they had more hype in the draft than their actual milb production.

cowgill i liked but more than likwly hes a 4th OF

cole/peacock trading 50% of the gio deal a yr later looks a bit questionable. when they came to oakland both experienced struggles. peacock especially looked mlb ready and claim a spot but got passed up by parker, milone, straily, griffin as the season went on. wasnt even worthy of a sept callup. maybe he revives his status with astros or could be another sean gallagher flop

Dirck
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Dirck
3 years 7 months ago

I think that Lowrie is by far the best player in this deal and I am surprised Houston didn’t get more for him ,though I do like Carter’s potential ,especially in a park more favorable to hitters than Oakland . Saying that Bean should have gotten more for those 7 players seems to suggest a lot of pro A’s bias in evaluating talent . The A’s got 3 very servicable major league ballplayers for 5 underachieving minor leaguers ,a shortstop who can’t hit a lick,and a guy with lots of power who the A’s have looked for excuses not to play for 3 years now .

Tim A
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Tim A
3 years 7 months ago

Billy sells low on 3 assets, not really his style usually. Yeah Carter for Lowrie is an overpay much less the rest.

Clifford
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Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

yeah i kinda disagree with the original post in this thread…over the last 3 seasons, Lowrie/Young/Jaso have combined for 22.2 WAR…and that doesnt even include full seasons from all 3 for all 3 years…not even close…i, for one, wouldnt be the least bit surprised if Cole, Peacock, Carter, Stassi, Pennington, Cowgill, and Cabrera ever have a 3-year stretch where they amass 22.2 WAR…Peacock is prolly gonna end up as an 8th inning guy, mayne a #4/5 if he gets his control back(to some extent at least)…Cowgill is a 4th OF type…Carter could be decent, but likely a career platoon bat…Stassi is a shot in the dark….Pennington is a glove-first, bat-never SS that is likely best served as a utility guy…IMO, only Cole has a shot to be really good…

Beane knew one thing about his team coming into this offseason…he had a lot of injury prone players in the OF with Cespedes and Crisp and Seth Smith…and both catcher and SS were extremely weak for them last year…i think he did very well to fill those holes, bringing in underrated players without giving up much in the way of proven MLB-talent or elite elite prospects.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

For the record, I love Cowgill’s toolkit and think he’s better than a 4th OF and will get a chance, I think the Mets are even pencilling him in as a starter right now.

Justin
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Justin
3 years 7 months ago

“what is a Fernando Rodriguez, it’s a right handed reliever”…c’mon man.

Mark
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Mark
3 years 7 months ago

Seriously, this is embarrassing and a poorly written article.

Bret
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Bret
3 years 7 months ago

“If you’re wondering what a Fangraphs Reader is, it’s a person who nitpicks the comedic style choices of a person writing awesome, free articles about baseball online.”

Circus Catch
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Circus Catch
3 years 7 months ago

Yes, and I’ve got him on my scoresheet team and I have to cut down to 13 by Sunday, so he just made the squad! Aside from that, I’m happy for him, and hope he makes the best of this opportunity.

Meanwhile, I’ve yet to see commentary on the impact on Jonathan Singleton’s career. The Astros do have the DH now, so there’s room, but I am mildly surprised that they traded one of their better players for someone who plays the same position as a top prospect.

dustin
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dustin
3 years 7 months ago

Carter’s the DH, most likely. He did not man 1B well in his time as an Athletic.

Krog
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Krog
3 years 7 months ago

Wasn’t Singleton recently busted for drug use (marijuana)? The Astros probably don’t see his future as being as bright as it used to be.

Sandy Kazmir
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Sandy Kazmir
3 years 7 months ago

The lustre is off him because he smoked some weed?

Dan Out West
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Dan Out West
3 years 7 months ago

Replace the word “bright” with the word “soon” and that seems more accurate. The kid still has incredible talent, he just made a dumb mistake.

RIP Carlos Baerga
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RIP Carlos Baerga
3 years 7 months ago

You mean Brett Wallace.

Singleton is the undisputed 1B of Astros future. Brett Wallace had the opportunity this season to split time at 1B & DH with Carlos Pena until Singleton trades trees for ash and gets the call. Now Wallace is in a 3-way slurry at 1B/DH with Carter in the mix before Singleton shows up, with Carter presumably the DH of the future. JD Martinez’ knees may see time at DH, as well. Wallace’s remaining MLB opportunity is to out-hit Matt Dominguez so handily that the chasm between their defensive skills goes ignored.

Kiss my Go Nats
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Kiss my Go Nats
3 years 7 months ago

Wallace and Pena are lefties with platoon splits. Carter is a righty with platoon splits. Seems likely 1b and Dh platoons are the main purpose for Carter et al.

Jaker
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Jaker
3 years 7 months ago

I heard he had a beer once too.

Craig Griffey was an Ahole
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Craig Griffey was an Ahole
3 years 7 months ago

Lowrie will play SS because…”What is a Hiroyuki Nakajima? A perfectly competent Japanese league baller”

grover
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grover
3 years 7 months ago

Two points I’d add to the article:

1) For his career, Jed Lowrie has hit 292/362/486 in 414 PA vs LHP, good for a 126 wRC+. Since Carter was going to be primarily limited to platoon duty vs. LHP than Lowrie offers almost-as-good offensive potential with much more defensive versatility.

2) Jed Lowrie has played in fewer than 100 games (minor leagues included) each of the last 4 seasons due to injury.

It doesn’t matter how talented a player is if they can’t get on the field they don’t help their team win. Any argument supporting this trade for Oakland is undermined by Lowrie’s inability to be available for even 50% of the games his major league teams have played over the last four years.

Krog
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Krog
3 years 7 months ago

The A’s seem to be willing to take chances on injury challenged players, probably because they come cheap and the A’s are cheap. At least Lowrie isn’t penciled in as a starter. I think the A’s will be happy with 100 games played, if Lowrie can make it that far.

grover
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grover
3 years 7 months ago

Except Lowrie didn’t come cheap.

All the guys Oakland sent over have question marks, certainly. But Stassi and Peacock represented two of the better trade chips Beane had left in his farm system and Carter had enough big league success last year to have value in spite of his limited defensive profile.

mlbfan23
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mlbfan23
3 years 7 months ago

stassi and peacock 2 of their better trade chips based on what?
i loved when they drafted stassi, but outside of some decent hr power hes never hit at the milb level. apparently hes a very good defensive catcher though. He was passed up by freitas and beau taylor in AA

peacock is very sean gallagher. hype as polished, mlb ready arm and got passed over many times as the season progressed. yes hes nice insurance to have in AAA. But with straily/griffin, blackley, gray, werner, banwart, billings, simmons/figueroa (return to sp?) as depth they probably wont lose any sleep over trading away depth

jimbo
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jimbo
3 years 7 months ago

Perhaps Beane thinks Jed can stay healthier if not expected to be a full-time starter.

grover
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grover
3 years 7 months ago

He better think that or else this was a stupid, stupid trade for Oakland!

Jeremy
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Jeremy
3 years 7 months ago

“It doesn’t matter how talented a player is if they can’t get on the field they don’t help their team win”

Doesn’t this describe Carter too? Durable yes, but cant field any position, and the at bats at DH are being taken by Young and Smith (or whatever OF they’re giving a day off from the field). If he cant get on the field, it makes some sense to send him out for someone they can find ABs for.

grover
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grover
3 years 7 months ago

Potentially, yes. But I see a difference in a DNP because his manager keeps him on the bench vs. a guy who can’t even walk out of the locker room to the bench.

Carter absolutely has question marks, but he was also certain to get at bats vs. LHP. How? Crisp has struggled a bit vs. lefties the last couple years, I wouldnt be surprised to see Young get some starts in CF because of it. Smith is not going to see many starts vs. lefties, thus freeing up DH. Moss may (or may not) need to sit vs. lefties, opening 1B.

Lowrie will now get those at bats… assuming he’s healthy. There’s some talk that Lowrie’s had fluke injuries; he injured his wrist in 2008, tried the rest and re-hab route in the off-season and ended up needing surgery in 2009. Mono in 2010. A serious shoulder injury in an outfield collision in 2011. And a severe ankle injury that included injuring a nerve in 2012. Sure… we can call mono a fluke but that’s 3 serious traumatic injuries in the last 4 years. That takes a toll and should not be dismissed.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
3 years 7 months ago

I hope Lowrie doesn’t get Carter’s PA vs lefties, since he’s terrible from that side. I’m hoping he’s the LH platoon half of 2B with Sizemore or Weeks. That’s potentially a more valuable position than RH half of 1B platoon, but I’m glad Carter’s getting a chance with the Astros.

tylersnotes
Member
3 years 7 months ago

while it is true that lowrie will cost $2.4 mil in 2013, i can only assume most of the savings to the astros will be to their group insurance premium

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

The depth of this team at the MLB level is nothing like I’ve ever seen:

OF: Cespedes, Reddick, Young, Crisp, Smith, Moss, Taylor, Peterson, Green
INF: Moss, Sizemore, Lowrie, Nakajima, Donaldson, Weeks, Green, Parrino, Rosales, Sogard, Moore, Hill
C: Jaso, Norris, Freitas, Hill

That’s a deep, deep, MLB squad. If the Angels lose Hamilton they have to play Vernon Wells or Scott Cousins, while Seth Smith is the A’s 5th OF. That’s extraordinary.

Pumpkin
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Pumpkin
3 years 7 months ago

As an outsider I think it seems all that deep, several of those guys are unlikely to be better than a replacement player, some could even be easily worse.

OuchBabe
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OuchBabe
3 years 7 months ago

Their outfield is very crowded, but their infield is fairly weak if not thin. Moss *could* be a regular first baseman but considering he only hit well last year and didn’t have to face lefties, that isn’t definite. Lowrie is the only other that has proven himself, but he is injury prone. All of the other don’t have high ceilings. At catcher, Freitas and Hill hardly constitute great deoth. Almost all teams have some catchers in the minors equivalent to either of them.

mlbfan23
Guest
mlbfan23
3 years 7 months ago

norris turns 24 soon, ive read freitas has similar hitting profile skills like norris, and taylor reached AA in his first full season

their infield depth with lowrie, hiro, sizemore, weeks, maybe green, parrino, rosales/sogard as fringe guys. chances are all could suck but there is depth there. You could flip a couple in minor trades to fill other needs

Slumlord Millionaire
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Slumlord Millionaire
3 years 7 months ago

Haters gonna hate! Honestly though, I have spent the better part of a decade counting the Athletics out only to have them consistently perform above their projections.

I think this trade works out well for both teams.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

Donaldson broke out after coming back
Nakajima = total wildcard
Sizemore was huge breakout candidate before getting hurt in ST, he looked real good in 2010
Weeks and Green were recent 1st round draft picks who are nearly ready

I think your ideas of “ceilings” are different to mine. I’d say everyone listed could be a regular on a lot of teams.

tylersnotes
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Fill a 25 man roster with only offense and take advantage of the earlier-reported strike zone advantage umpires give position players when they pitch… Beane you mad genius

David G
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David G
3 years 7 months ago

Nary a star to be seen

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

You need to play more to become a star. There’s a LOT of talent on that roster and like I said, if the Angels get hurt, they have to play Scott Cousins, the A’s play Seth Smith. Huge difference in depth.

Mario Mendoza
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Mario Mendoza
3 years 7 months ago

Um, except for maybe Cespedes and Young, that pile is equal parts “2012 fluke” and “minor-league filler.”

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

Reddick was a fluke huh? Ok.

pft
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pft
3 years 7 months ago

The A’s are loving Red Sox rejects. Helped them a lot last year.

Lowrie is due for a healthy season.

chuckb
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chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

Only because he’s never had one.

Staying healthy is a skill and, though Lowrie plays well when he plays, it’s not a skill that Lowrie seems to possess. The A’s are likely hoping for 120-125 games and will probably be happy if they get it.

Sleight of Hand Pro
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Sleight of Hand Pro
3 years 7 months ago

cmon man. if you cant get behind the flawless logic of the “Due Theory” then you just live a sad life.

David G
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David G
3 years 7 months ago

Yuniesky Betancourt is due to learn to play baseball.

OaktownSteve
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OaktownSteve
3 years 7 months ago

While it’s hard to say with a guy that was recently a a highly regarded propspect like Peacock, but the talk around the A’s camp is that the bloom was off the rose. I don’t think they saw top of the rotation stuff there. If you consider him a 4 or 5 at best, then it cast a different light on the trade. The A’s rotation at the MLB level is pretty full at the moment and there are other decent guys ready and others coming.

On the other hand, it would have been really tough for the A’s to go into this season with the infield options they have. I could easily see Lowrie as their everyday 2B coming out of spring and let him roll there and hope he doesn’t get hurt. Jemilie finished the season at AAA and didn’t even get a September call up, so they saw what I also kind of saw, which is he just looked over matched against big league pitching. I could see him starting the year in Sacramento and being available if/when Lowrie gets hurt or if Nakajima goes the way of some other reason Japanese middle infield imports and flops.

And the A’s like having power arms in the ‘pen. Deep pen is a big part of the brand of baseball they play. First take, I’m a happy season ticket holder.

HOF7
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HOF7
3 years 7 months ago

Weeks did get a September call-up.

Randy
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Randy
3 years 7 months ago

This only happened because the A’s came out of no where last year to contend. They have a surplus of bats for OF/1B/DH so this trade made sense; they get production that they can play at any of the infield positions. The insurance goes both ways: Lowrie is insurance if the other players at 3B,SS,2B don’t work out, and they are insurance for him if and when he gets injured. The Astros had little to gain by keeping Lowrie and got a good package.

Mac
Guest
Mac
3 years 7 months ago

Seems to come down to how you feel about Peacock / Stassi. Seems for the most part that Lowrie for Carter is fairly balances. Some risk on both sides (injuries for Jed, possible flame-out for Chris).

If Peacock or Stassi really make something of themselves then the A’s perhaps got overzealous on the “all-in” style offseason. Stassi’s still not much more than a lottery pick at this point so it’s really all on Peacock to make or break this one for Oakland.

Really makes you wonder about Hiro Nakajima. The A’s brass just got a firsthand look a coupe days ago.

Total speculation, but there’s a pretty believable storyline here that the A’s weren’t wowed by Hiro’s first few days in Oakland, dusted off an old trade, were forced to sweeten the pot(Peacock?) and bought themselves insurance for the weakest hole in the roster.

mlbfan23
Guest
mlbfan23
3 years 7 months ago

does peacock really make or break it? maybe from astros who need pitching, but A’s usually have no problem producing pitchers peacock got passed up plain and simple.

end of 2011 there were hype saying he could be #3 type, fast forward to now some say back rotation/reliever. his struggling 2012 hurt his prospect status

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
3 years 7 months ago

I would hope the A’s had seen Najakima play before signing him

JCA
Guest
JCA
3 years 7 months ago

It’s better to say the trade comes down to how you feel about Peacock now than to say how Peacock plays is the make or break of this deal for Oakland. Just because a bad bet works out does not make it a good bet. I would not say Peacock is a bad bet, but you have to go into this valuing him as a guy with mid-to-back of the rotation upside, probably useful in the bullpen if it does not work out, high strikeout stuff, maybe with control issues that were not apparent when he was in the Washington system.

Don’t discount the houston manager in this. Bo may have his own views about Peacock from his Washington time. It may be why Houston values Peacock as more of an asset than the As do now. But in the As system, he might have been more of a passed by prospect than he would be with Houston.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

More like the projected INF was Moss-Sizemore-Nakajima-Donaldson with Weeks, Barton and Green the only guys pushing for a starting role, and even though they all have high ceilings (If Donaldson hits like he did after coming back the second time, he has 25+ HR power, same with Sizemore who was looking very good as a breakout candidate before his knee injury), however, they are all question marks. Lowrie gives an option to fill in at any of the 4 positions if one of those 4 is not really who they acted like they were last year. Its a wise move on paper, but one has to feel that Beane gave up too much for Lowrie, who had no real role in the Astros future. Kudos to Houston for winning this deal.

Scott
Guest
Scott
3 years 7 months ago

How does the 7.5-12.5 million over 2 years savings over market value come into the equation?
Drew will probably get 20 m over the next two years, Lowrie 7.5 and they are almost equal players.
Both around average D, both played around 175 games over the last two years,
Lowrie has a more recent 111 wRC+,
Drew has had full seasons but not for awhile last hitting a wRC+ 111 in 2010.
Just because the A’s won’t start him at SS dosen’t mean his best value isn’t there for most teams.

Kiss my Go Nats
Guest
Kiss my Go Nats
3 years 7 months ago

Peacock is probably going to pitch in Houston this season. When he pitched for the Nats one September not long ago, I recall he was pretty good (sure smallish sample). He had a great summer in the minors that year as well. I think average MLB starting pitcher is a likely future outcome for him if nor more. Astros might have done quite good on this one.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 years 7 months ago

It’s weird to remember this is now an intradivisional trade.

Jess
Guest
Jess
3 years 7 months ago

LETS GO OAKLAND!!!!!!!!

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