A’s Might Not Upgrade Greatly With Figgins
To call the Oakland A’s off-season aggressive might understate the fervor with which Billy Beane has rebuilt his roster. Already he has signed four major league free agents, exercised two options, and traded for two starters. They add up to nearly $50 million total. Beane would have spent more, too, if he had his way: the A’s reportedly had a $64 million offer to Adrian Beltre. This morning we learned that Beane might not be finished. Reports circulated that the A’s are interested in a swap with the Mariners: Kevin Kouzmanoff “and perhaps a pitcher” for Chone Figgins. Despite the Figgins’s name value, this trade might not greatly benefit the A’s.
When word first broke of the A’s interest in Figgins, I thought it would be a worthy addition. He might be a bit expensive, with between three and four years, and $26 and $35 million remaining on his contract, but his production might justify those salaries. While he produced just 0.6 WAR in 2010, he had produced at least 2.7 WAR in each of the three previous seasons, including 6.1 in 2009. If he rebounds even to his 2007 and 2008 levels he could provide the A’s with a solid defensive option at third base, as well as someone who can get on base and cause some disruption on the base paths.
Still, we’re talking about two teams swapping third basemen, and that requires a direct comparison of their abilities. That’s when I pulled up their WAR graphs. You might be surprised to see this one.
Kouzmanoff has been a fairly consistent producer during the last four seasons. He has produced between 2.5 and 2.9 WAR, with his peak coming last season. Most of his value comes from defense — in fact, the last time he produced a positive WAR batting component was 2007, and it has gotten progressively worse in each successive season. His fielding, on the other hand, has trended in the opposite direction (though we know the warning about looking for year-to-year trends in UZR). It’s not just UZR that rates his defense highly. Both DRS and TZL both have rated him among the league’s best third basemen during the last two seasons.
Figgins, of course, is no slouch on defense. He took a hit last year when he moved to second base, but from 2007 through 2009 he ranked among the top five MLB third baseman by UZR/150, TZL, and DRS. He also has the potential to provide plenty more offense than Kouzmanoff: in the last four seasons he has produced a .337 wOBA, compared to Kouzmanoff’s .315. Even so, during those four seasons Figgins has produced 12.6 WAR to Kouzmanoff’s 10.7. There is no question that Figgins is the better player, and we’ve seen him produce big seasons. But does the gap between the two justify a swap, plus an additional player from the A’s?
Kouzmanoff has two years left before free agency and will earn $4.75 million in 2011. Last year he was worth almost 2.5 times that. Figgins has three years left on his deal, and that could turn into four if he accumulates 600 PA in 2013. During his best season, 2009, he was worth three times the $9 million he’ll earn next year, but he’s never been worth more than 1.5 times that salary in any other year. It’s a far better bet that we see Figgins produce somewhere around 3.0 WAR in 2011 (which, coincidentally, is what the Fan Scouting Reports pegs him for). Kouzmanoff is also four years younger, which should also play a factor.
Based on name value and offensive production, it appears that the A’s would do well to swap Kouzmanoff for Figgins. But after looking a bit deeper I’m not so sure. Kouzmanoff figures to be the better value in 2011 and 2012, while Figgins has a fairly hefty contract and is coming off one of his worst seasons in the majors. If cash changes hands perhaps the A’s can make it worthwhile. But in a one-for-one swap, and especially in a scenario where the A’s send an additional player to Seattle, they’d do better to keep Kouzmanoff at third. His numbers might not be the sexiest, but he remains a useful player, especially at his salary.
Maybe this shouldn’t be shocking, but I am most shocked that Figgins is 32. When’d that happen?
He has been around forever. Figgins was on the Angels’ 2002 WS team.
That’s funny because I thought he was like 42.
Should edit the bit about Figgins taking a defensive hit from when he moved to “third base” to “second base” The M’s were idiots with that move.
Yes, it made no sense IMO, why did they flip Lopez and Figgins?
Because Lopez hit more like a 3Bman and Figgins hit more like a 2Bman, and therefore if they thought they were maximizing positional value. But in real life, you still had the same 2 players in your lineup now playing positions they were less comfortable playing.
Figgins was a terrific 3B, but Seattle figured 3B was a less important defensive position than 2B, and Lopez played a pretty poor 2B.
They figured the hit Figgins would take with the move would be less than the gain they made from exposing Figgins to more defensive opportunities while reducing the same for Lopez.
It didn’t work, but it was a clever idea.
It actually made a lot of sense.
Figgins biggest strength as a defender is his range, and his biggest weakness is his arm strength.
Lopez’s biggest strength as a defender is his arm strength and his biggest weakness is his range.
If Figgins would have been able to wrap his head around the move, it should have worked out, being moved to a postion that utilizes his greatest strength while minimizing his greatest weakness.
Lopez was able to handle the switch defensively, but Figgins fell apart.
You are wrong about Figgins’ arm. He has an exceptional arm, as he was drafted as a Shortstop and has seen time in RF and CF specifically because of how well he throws. Figgins’ weakness at 3B is his height, or lack thereof. He has to make up for his lack of height by using his feet and positioning. He has the opposite problem that Cal Ripken had.
Anyway, its not his arm.
Yes Steve,
The Mariners’ FO is dumb as fuck, and it didn’t occur to them that they would still have the same lineup whether Figgins was playing 2b or 3rd.
Speaking of Figgins, there should be an article entitled “The Angels might upgrade greatly with Figgins”
I am probably alone in this, but the first time I ever heard of Figgins was a derisive reference on FJM. Thus, my vague impression of him has always been as a bad player. That’s his only “name value” for me.
He’s an annoying player, in that he gets on base and steals a lot, but he’s always been a positive contributor on offense. Sometimes FJM targets guys for what they represent, rather than what they actually are.
And, possibly, FJM wasn’t targeting Figgins as much as they were targeting a reporter who treated Figgins like he was Pujols.
I believe it was from before Figgy was a good starting caliber player and was like a pinch running 25th man kinda player
He must have represented something bad to them. Before they realized he was or could ever be good.
It would make more sense to trade Kevin for a young pitcher and then swap some other piece for Chone. Don’t see why that would happen though
Your analysis is similar to what A’s fans seem to think. Figgins isn’t worth the additional player if it is anything more than filler. Perhaps some cash would make it worthwhile.
I think the concern with Kouzmanoff is that his offense has trended down for 4 years and his defense simply cannot continue to trend upwards and in fact it may regress. Not many fans see him as a true 2.9 WAR player. I think we mostly hope for 2 WAR.
The A’s may also be concerned with Kouz’s back, which acted up a few times last year and appears to be something he will have to live with the rest of his career. Figgins seems to be a better bet in the health department.
Easy for me to say, not my money. But wonder if they could get Figgy without including Kouz. Play some platoons and super utility. Mark Ellis doesnt exactly have a history of good health.
I second AA’s post. The team that could really use Figgins is the LAA. Seems like he might come pretty cheap given his contract and how far from contention the M’s seem to be….
The Angels were stupid to let him go in the first place. The M’s signed him well below the early estimates of what his contract was going to be.
Hmmmm Beane or Pawlikowski? Tough call but maybe Beane by a hair?
Come on now, Snarks. I’m a big Beane fan, but that doesn’t mean his moves can’t be questioned. And this isn’t even a move, it’s only a rumor of a possible one.
It just seems evil to me to ask Kouz to hit in Petco, then Oakland, then Safeco, while someone like Rolen gets to hit in Citizen’s Bank, Toronto, and Cinci. As unfair as having to pitch in front of Edwin Encarnacion or Yuniesky Betancourt.
Career wOBA, Away Split
Scott Rolen: .374
Kevin Kouzmanoff: .336
While I agree that Kouzmanoff is certainly the better value, Figgins is most certainly the better player. The money per win would matter more if the A’s didn’t have any money, where Figgins’ contract would adversely affect what they could do in subsequent seasons. But, it seems like they have some money, so future spending shouldn’t be an issue. Because their team is close enough to win the division, it makes sense to upgrade their roster in any way they can, even if Figgins isn’t as cost effective as Kouzmanoff. If there was a better way to spend 5 million dollars (Kouz + 5 mill vs. Figgins 9 mill), then I’d look into that, but paying Figgins that money for the extra win seems reasonable.
^^^ this, excellent point
You are missing the point the A’s would be trying to achieve with this trade. To the A’s this trade is not about maximizing their WAR to dollars ratio but rather about improving the 2011 team’s chances to actually win the AL West. The A’s are willing to spend more dollars per WAR as long as the actually get more total WAR.
This is the worst article title I have ever read.
You obviously missed Bob Hertzel’s article at BP on why Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame even though he bet on baseball.
Translation: “This is the worst article I have ever read … this hour.”
I actually like this trade idea (as long as the other player is not a major piece), as I think figgins has the more productive bat, and that his range will play very well at 3b in Oakland. He should be able to cover that huge foul territory amazingly well.
I just wished he spelled his name correctly.
You mean Desmond (his actual first name – Desmond DeChone Figgins)
Yeah, there are two ways to spell that particular name and C-H-O-N-E is not one of them. What is the most versatile name as far as alternate spellings go? My guess is:
Eric
Erik
Erick
Aric
Arrick
Ehrich
Erich
Erric
Erek
Eryk
Aerick
Eirik
Earache
If I were to consult the respective mothers of Laynce Nix, Torii Hunter and Jhonny Peralta, I could probably come with at least a dozen more.
I’m guessing by “two ways” you mean Sean and Shawn. But I also know a Shaun and know of a Shawon [Dunston].
Would you much rather he spelled it “Raymond Luxury Yacht”?
…but it’s actually pronounced “Throat Warbler Mangrove”.
If Figgins can net a high OBP in front of the newly acquired power hitters the A’s would be in pretty good shape. They have some decent OBP guys out there, but Kouz provides less, which is surprising, on offense than Figgins and defensively they are probably pretty close to even. Pitching always matters, but I don’t hate the deal for either side.
So the M’s are going for yet another defender who might have an even worse bat then Figgins? Sure they are saving a little money, but Figgins has more upside and is not a complete liability at the plate (though he was close last year).
I don’t get this potential move for the M’s, the A’s could be banking on some offside upside so it may not be a bad deal even if it costs them a dew extra dollars
The idea for the M’s is that they reduce their risk of Figgins continuing to struggle and get some financial flexibility come 2012 and 2013. Having that extra $17 million may help them more at that point than having Chone Figgins.
Chone looked bad last year. He just turned 33. And his only real consistant skill is speed. How many guys keep that going in their mid 30′s? He will never reach those high walk counts again because pitchers realized he cant really hurt them with his bat. He has averaged 22 doubles a year the last 3 years. So why worry about challenging him?
Imo, Chone’s career will trend much like Luis Castillo’s did. Useful at 31 and worthless by 34.
B-R has his most similar player listed as Bip Roberts. Bip had a couple huge obp high SB years too. He started to decline right around 32 and was done by 34
He recovered from an early slump and was very unlucky as a LHB, traditionally his strength. He was also forced over to a position he isn’t as good at.
I liked the idea of SEA getting Figgins and going with the speed/defense aspect in a pitcher’s park.
Last year changed, dramatically, the view of that signing.
It could be a fluke year, it could just be significant aging.
It wouldn;t be worth the chance for me.
As an AL West team, in regards to Figgins, my comment would be “You wanted him … you got him.”
Maybe SEA could see if LAA wants him back. Maybe LAA will send them 2 decent players and take on all the money. *grin*
Agree with mister_rob. I hate this potential move for the A’s. We’re supposed to be a small market team that avoids bloated contracts like this.
I know I’m opening myself up for a world of hurt here, but I seriously question if Figgins is the better player. I think Kouz’s defense is superior and I think the A’s need potential power more than another light-hitting speedster (they already have Sweeney, Pennington, Coco Crisp and, somewhat, DeJesus). I know Kouz is not a big bomber by any means, but a .400+ slugging percentage is more what the A’s need than a .300+ slugging percentage.
As an A’s fan, I just don’t understand why we would go for the older, overpriced veteran over the younger, lower-priced player.
Take away the salaries and you’re still gambling on the older player to revert back to normal, which is only about half a win at most better than the younger player. Terrible trade for the A’s.
A day late and a dollar short on this topic, but if I may chime in late, I’d be happier with Chone if I had to choose between the two, money aside. Defensively, they should be expected to be a wash at 3B in future value. Yes, one will better, but its a throw of the dice as to which one it will be. But if I had to place a bet on one of them to improve on offense, and maintain such production, I hedge my bets on Figgins. Too many seasons of getting worse for Kouzmanoff, and too many logical explanations for Figgins’ bad year in 2010. In terms of overall future value, you have to expect Figgins to be the bigger contributor. Seeing as their contracts are reasonable compared to their expected production, I pay a little more for the higher production every time, so long as I have the money to play with. The Mariners have the money, and with improved play they will be happy they kept Figgins.