A’s Rookie Starting Pitchers Defying Odds

The other day, a clerical error on Major League Baseball’s part gave Athletics pitcher Travis Blackley another chance to be a freshman. As a result, the A’s — who had already received more than 60 starts from rookie pitchers — moved even further up the leaderboard of games started by rookie pitchers. But while many rookie-laden pitching rotations stumble, Oakland has gotten some of its finest efforts this season from its group of youngsters.

Since 1947, there have been 85 teams who have had rookies start at least 60 games. Five of those teams were in their expansion season: the 1961 Angels, 1962 Mets, 1969 Padres, 1969 Expos and 1977 Blue Jays. Three teams reached the postseason: the 1952 Dodgers, 1984 Royals and 2003 Giants. It’s this latter group that the A’s and their now six rookie starters hope to join.

Even if Oakland doesn’t reach the postseason, the team has already defied some pretty long odds. These 85 teams averaged only a .431 winning percentage, which is essentially a 70-win season. At a minimum, Oakland will become one of 13 teams in this group to compile a winning record — and the team;s winning percentage will be either the third- or fourth-best among the group. Even though veterans started six of the team’s first eight games, the rotation is all rookies now.

Veterans Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon led the rotation into Japan this March, and then started four of the first six games stateside. But ever since, rookies have dominated the A’s rotation. Really though, it took a while for them to get to the big leagues. Rookies Tommy Milone and Graham Godfrey started the first two games that didn’t involve either McCarthy or Colon. This makes Milone the only wire-to-wire rookie Oakland starter, as mediocrity — as well as a blister problem — conspired to torpedo Godfrey’s season after just five appearances. When Godfrey was demoted the first time, Jarrod Parker came up. Because of that, the A’s essentially had two rookies in the rotation all season. Blackley didn’t hop across the Bay until mid-May, A.J. Griffin arrived in late June and Dan Straily didn’t make his major-league debut until August. Since Straily’s first start though, rookies have started 68% of Oakland’s games. And now with McCarthy and Brett Anderson injured — and Colon suspended — rookies have started the team’s past eight games, and 17 of its past 20.

Much of the success of this rookie class rests with Parker, but it’s not as if he’s  breaking new ground this season. His 83 FIP- doesn’t show up until the seventh page of the rookie leaderboard that dates back to 1947. Instead of one rookie leading the way, it’s been a team effort in Oakland. And now this young crew holds their team’s playoff fate in their hands.

That runs in stark contrast to the 2003 Giants. That season’s Giants overcame their World Series hangover to reach the postseason, and rookies Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth and Kevin Correia helped get them there. But Williams was the only one who pitched in the postseason, and he logged only the two innings following Jose Cruz’s dropped fly ball, and even though it was a whole new game, San Francisco was probably dead in the water already.

We find a similar pattern for the 1984 Royals. Mark Gubicza, Bret Saberhagen and Danny Jackson contributed 58 of the team’s starts that season (and Frank Wills chipped in with five), but in the ’84 ALCS, Saberhagen was the only one who pitched. Perhaps Gubicza or Jackson would have pitched had the series continued, but the Royals — who had no business being in the playoffs, look at how bad the AL West was in ’84 — were quickly dispatched by the Tigers.

In ’52, the Brooklyn Dodgers had eight rookie pitchers start games, though five of the eight started five or fewer games. One of those five was rookie Joe Black. Black, primarily a reliever that season and throughout his career, started just two games in the regular season, but was trusted with starting Games 1, 4 and 7 of the World Series that season. The move paid off too, sort of. Black was tagged with the loss in two of his three starts, including Game 7, but the eventual 1952 National League Rookie of the Year only allowed 23 baserunners in 21.1 innings — hard to say it was his fault. Fellow rookie Billy Loes started Game 6, giving rookies four of the seven starts. That is probably the closest parallel, at least in terms of number of games started to this year’s Oakland team. And it still doesn’t do Oakland justice.

While those teams made the playoffs, as the A’s hope to, that doesn’t mean they were necessarily the best among rookie-heavy teams. The ’75 Giants got over with John Montefusco (7.0 WAR) and Pete Falcone (2.0). The ’69 Royals had four rookie starters each compile a FIP of 3.66 or lower and a WAR of 1.7 or higher. In 1968, the famous rookie card brothers, Nolan Ryan and Jerry Koosman, helped the Mets compile the best ERA (2.42) and FIP (2.92) among this 85-team sample. And that’s not even the best season for Mets rookie hurlers. That honor goes to the 1984 team fronted by Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez. No matter how you want to slice it, Gooden’s ’84 is going to come out as the best rookie starting pitcher season since ’47, and probably of all-time. But Darling and Fernandez weren’t exactly chopped liver either for the 90-win, second-place Mets. This year’s A’s don’t have a star like Gooden, but they will end up being a similar quality team. The only difference is now there are extra playoff spots, so Oakland will get to play one more game. And it will be started by a rookie.

The A’s have relied on rookie starting pitchers like few other teams, and they have succeeded to boot. That five rookie pitchers are poised to lead a team into the postseason is basically unprecedented. Only three teams who were so reliant on rookie starters in the regular season reached the postseason, and two of them didn’t lean very heavily on them during their abbreviated playoff runs. Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Travis Blackley and Dan Straily may not be the most imposing rotation in history, but let’s take a moment to appreciate just how rare their accomplishment would be.



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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com. He has written for The Boston Globe, ESPN MLB Insider and ESPN the Magazine, among others. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


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MFG
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MFG
3 years 11 months ago

Anybody care to rank order Parker/Milone/Griffin/Straily for 2013?

Bobbee
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Bobbee
3 years 11 months ago

Yeah, I’ll go with Parker, Griffin, Straily, Milone.
Here’s why:
-Parker first because he’s clearly shown sustained success over (nearly) a full season. He’s also been getting strikeouts at an increased rate in September and his control seems to be coming back more and more.
-Griffin second as I think he’s just got more advanced stuff than Milone. Similar control with a higher K rate. They both are FB pitchers (at almost the exact same rate, coincidentally), but Griffin nearly K’s 1 more per 9 with a minimally higher BB rate.
-Milone ahead of Straily for now because I’ll take the performance in the majors over potential at this point. Dunno how much better Milone can conceivably get, but he’s a pretty decent 3/4 in any rotation.
-I like Straily a lot, still, but damn man, that HR rate is atrocious. Having watched nearly every one of his starts I can’t tell you how frustrating it is. It’s like he just flips his brain off 2 or 3 times a start and serves up a BP fastball. His last start against Texas was encouraging (6.2 IP, 8K, 2BB, 1 HR) and I think he’ll certainly make some strides this offseason and during spring (BTW Griffin and Straily weren’t even with the A’s this Spring, AT ALL). Until he makes those improvements though, he’s last of the rookies.

Matt
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Matt
3 years 11 months ago

Parker
Milone
Griffin
Straily

Parker has both the highest upside and the best sustained MLB performance so far. He is going to be really, really good.

Milone, amazingly, is probably still underrated. His control is incredible. The main knock on him has always been doubts about whether his stuff would translate to the major leagues. To me, it was just bias against a soft-tosser (seriously, I thought we were over that by now). His MLB numbers – league average swinging strike % and 6.5 K/9 – have proven that he can stick. Sure, as a soft-tossing flyballer he is going to get rocked occasionally, but right now he’s looking like Buerhle 2.0, which while not sexy is incredibly valuable. I think people still see that 87 MPH fastball and don’t quite believe he can sustain success. Don’t believe that B.S. He has proven the doubters wrong at every single step of his career.

I have Griffin and Straily lower only because of their short track records. They both had nice seasons (especially Griffin) in the lower minors last year, but neither was considered a real prospect until they broke out at AA and AAA this season. I like both a lot but I think some caution is warranted. There’s still a reasonable chance that one or both of them busts.

I put Griffin ahead because of the excellent run he’s had at the MLB level so far. I’m especially excited that the control has been there. I think Straily might have higher upside just based on how thoroughly he destroyed PCL hitters this year, but Griffin is probably more likely to stick.

One thing that’s a little concerning is how flyball-heavy all of them are besides Parker (and to some extent him as well). The Coliseum is giving them a big assist so far, but hopefully Milone/Griffin/Straily do get a few more grounders going forward.

Nick O
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Nick O
3 years 11 months ago

Straily was pretty good about keeping the ball in the park in the minors this year. And he’s faced some pretty tough lineups his first 6 starts in the majors.

I’d put Parker as the clear #1, then Griffin, Straily, Milone, though you could convince me to put the last three in any order.

Bobbee
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Bobbee
3 years 11 months ago

Wait, where do you get that Milone’s control is “incredible”? I know he’s been better recently, but it’s not exactly spectacular… I have a hard time seeing his potential exceeding Griffin’s, TBH. And I liked Milone a lot this offseason, but outside of a couple of outstanding starts, he’s had some real trouble getting hitters to miss.

Matt
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Matt
3 years 11 months ago

He walked less than one batter per nine innings in AAA last season. While striking out more than a batter per inning.

His BB/9 is 6th in the majors among qualified starters this season, and among the top 10 he has the 3rd best K/9. He’s got great control and is generating strikeouts at a more than adequate rate.

We’ll see what happens next year, but there are very, very few pitchers (Cliff Lee, Mark Buerhle, and….?) who can sustain a BB/9 under two. Based on Milone’s minor league performance and MLB performance so far, he looks like he might be one of them.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 11 months ago

Now can we get an article about how the Rockies are defying odds by having every rookie pitcher suck?

Craftcj
Member
Craftcj
3 years 11 months ago

One of my favorite stats about the A’s rookie dominance:

A’s rookie pitchers: 10.6 WAR

Entire Angels staff: 10.5 WAR

Bobbee
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Bobbee
3 years 11 months ago

Whoa, seriously?!
As an A’s fan I can certainly enjoy and appreciate this, but Dan Haren deserves better…

Adam
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Adam
3 years 11 months ago

Can anyone project their lineup next year?

Bobbee
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Bobbee
3 years 11 months ago

It’s actually much easier than the rotation order, IMO.

C- Norris/Kottaras (platoon until Norris proves he can be a regular)
1B- Carter/Moss (platoon seems to work fairly well, Carter can get some PAs against RHPs as DH)
2B- The only real mystery, although I think Weeks steals it back, considering his BB rate went up and K rate went down from last year. I think his BABIP normalizes to some extent, although there is plenty of discussion here.
SS- Unless Drew is against it, that mutual option looks mighty fine for both parties right now.
3B- Donaldson. His defense looks damn solid and his bat looks like it could be league average if he can continue to be the hitter he’s been since August, which I think it possible considering his LD rate and his relatively low K rate.
RF- Reddick
CF- Crisp, Cespy when he’s not healthy
LF- Smith/Gomes (pretty obvious re-signing here, it’s mutual judging by media accounts).
Not the prettiest lineup, but considering they were putting Brandon Moss at short, Kila Ka’sifhegr’u/ Daric Barton at 1st and a whole cast of characters at other places early on, this team could have won 90+ easily this year.
Next year should be a lot of fun, no matter what.

lwlobo
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lwlobo
3 years 11 months ago

Seems you’ve forgotten their best player, or think Cespedes will be traded for someone not good enough to make the team. Leaving their best player and likely MVP candidate next year off your list is bad form for an A’s fan.

Further, since Drew’s arrival, Pennington has been fantastic. It’s likely Weeks get at least another half year in AAA to prove he’s ready to be a MLB regular, meanwhile Penny plays a solid average 2B.

dustin
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dustin
3 years 11 months ago

Scott Sizemore will be back next year and has to at least be mentioned in the 3B spot. It would have been his job to lose if he weren’t hurt in spring training.

Hecubot
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Hecubot
3 years 11 months ago

Sizemore might move over to second base, his natural position.

Depends on whether Drew comes back. The A’s would want him even at the $10 million option, but it’s a mutual option so he might prefer to test the free agent waters.

Bobbee
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Bobbee
3 years 11 months ago

@lwlobo
Whoops! hahaha. I certainly meant to include him in left. I put him as Crisp’s backup at CF and then forgot to include him again. Although since Crisp seems to have trouble playing everyday for over a month at a time, Yoenis should get plenty of time in center…

Scott
Guest
Scott
3 years 11 months ago

Uzr loves Donaldson. Sizemore not so much at 3rd. Another nice platoon if needed.
10-15 HR with Sizemore at 2nd looks nice. Cliff would need to be the back-up SS/2b. Weeks has no place.

Norris needs another year in AAA. Sign another C for 1 yr. platoon with Kottaras.

jirish
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jirish
3 years 11 months ago

This should not be that big of a surprise to anyone who follows the A’s. They are excellent at scouting, signing, developing, and ushering young pitchers to the major leagues. They have been doing it for years. They are good at it, and it keeps them from having to risk big bucks to free agent pitchers that are often not worth their contracts.

If I wanted to improve my franchise in a hurry, I’d hire those folks away from the A’s. Next, I’d go after the Rays scouts.

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