Author Archive

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, French I Took

11:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi all, links quick before I get going….

11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I was in San Diego to see Vanderbilt over the weekend so video of relevant guys is starting to go up.

11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s Jeren Kendall.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting ASU’s afternoon game against Oklahoma State today and will write up Kyle Wright, Kendall + others for later this week.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s start.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 32 Prospects: Atlanta Braves

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Atlanta Braves farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (MIAPHI)

Braves Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Dansby Swanson 23 MLB SS 2017 65
2 Ozzie Albies 20 AAA 2B 2018 60
3 Ronald Acuna 19 A CF 2020 55
4 Kolby Allard 19 A LHP 2019 55
5 Kevin Maitan 17 R 3B 2021 55
6 Ian Anderson 18 R RHP 2021 55
7 Max Fried 23 A LHP 2018 55
8 Luiz Gohara 20 A LHP 2019 55
9 Mike Soroka 19 A RHP 2020 50
10 Cristian Pache 18 R CF 2020 50
11 Sean Newcomb 23 AA LHP 2018 50
12 Joey Wentz 19 R LHP 2021 50
13 Touki Touisaint 20 A RHP 2019 45
14 Patrick Weigel 22 AA RHP 2018 45
15 Travis Demeritte 22 A+ 2B 2019 45
16 Kyle Muller 19 R LHP 2020 45
17 Ray-Patrick Didder 22 A OF 2019 45
18 Dustin Peterson 22 AA LF 2018 45
19 Brett Cumberland 21 R C 2019 40
20 A.J. Minter 23 AA LHP 2017 40
21 Drew Harrington 21 R LHP 2019 40
22 Derian Cruz 18 R SS 2021 40
23 Yunior Severino 17 R SS 2022 40
24 Alex Jackson 21 A C 2021 40
25 Rio Ruiz 22 MLB 3B 2017 40
26 Dylan Moore 24 A+ UTIL 2018 40
27 Mauricio Cabrera 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
28 Austin Riley 19 A 3B 2021 40
29 Bryse Wilson 19 R RHP 2020 40
30 Ricardo Sanchez 19 A LHP 2020 40
31 Jonathan Morales 22 A C 2019 40
32 Randy Ventura 19 R RF 2020 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt
Age 23 Height 6’1 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 40/45 60/60 55/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .302/.361/.442 in 145 MLB plate appearances.

Scouting Report
The first-overall pick by Arizona in 2015, Swanson barely played affiliated ball for the Diamondbacks after he was hit in the face by a Yoan Lopez pitch on the backfields in Scottsdale shortly after signing. Swanson, who still wears a face guard on his batting helmet, was traded to Atlanta that December in the Shelby Miller deal.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 13 Prospects: Miami Marlins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Miami Marlins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (PHI)

Marlins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Braxton Garrett 19 R LHP 2019 55
2 Brian Anderson 23 AA 3B 2017 45
3 Tyler Kolek 21 A RHP 2020 45
4 Thomas Jones 19 R OF 2021 45
5 Edward Cabrera 18 R RHP 2021 45
6 Dillon Peters 24 AA LHP 2018 40
7 Jarlin Garcia 24 AA LHP 2017 40
8 Isael Soto 20 A RF 2019 40
9 J.T. Riddle 25 AAA SS 2017 40
10 Cody Poteet 22 A RHP 2019 40
11 Stone Garrett 21 A OF 2019 40
12 Yefri Perez 25 MLB UTIL 2017 40
13 Drew Steckenrider 26 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florence HS (AL)
Age 19 Height 6’3 Weight 190 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
50/50 55/60 40/55 45/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Didn’t pitch during season after signing.

Scouting Report
I had some issues with the effort in Garrett’s delivery during his summer showcase appearances and didn’t think he got out over his front side consistently. By his senior spring, those issues had evaporated and Garrett became one of the better prep arms available in the 2016 draft. He’s an excellent barometer for what a top-15 prep lefty looks like: 90-93 with a plus-flashing curveball and an arm action/athleticism that allows for projection on the command and changeup, both of which Garrett has already shown in spurts.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 33 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Phillies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 J.P. Crawford 22 AAA SS 2017 60
2 Mickey Moniak 18 R OF 2019 55
3 Jorge Alfaro 23 MLB C 2017 55
4 Sixto Sanchez 18 R RHP 2020 45
5 Roman Quinn 23 MLB CF 2017 45
6 Adonis Medina 20 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Elniery Garcia 22 A+ LHP 2017 45
8 Franklyn Kilome 21 A RHP 2020 45
9 Rhys Hoskins 24 AA 1B 2018 45
10 Dylan Cozens 22 AA OF 2018 45
11 Kevin Gowdy 19 R RHP 2020 45
12 Scott Kingery 22 AA 2B 2018 45
13 Nick Williams 23 AAA OF 2017 45
14 Daniel Brito 19 R 2B 2020 40
15 Jhailyn Ortiz 18 R OF 2021 40
16 Drew Anderson 22 A+ RHP 2017 40
17 Bailey Falter 19 A- LHP 2020 40
18 Seranthony Dominguez 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Carlos Tocci 21 A+ CF 2018 40
20 Cornelius Randolph 19 A LF 2020 40
21 Thomas Eshelman 22 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Victor Arano 21 AA RHP 2017 40
23 Andrew Knapp 25 AAA C 2017 40
24 Cole Stobbe 19 R SS 2021 40
25 Mark Appel 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Alberto Tirado 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
27 Nick Pivetta 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
28 Arquimedez Gamboa 19 A- SS 2021 40
29 JoJo Romero 20 A- LHP 2020 40
30 Andrew Pullin 23 AA LF 2018 40
31 Jose Pujols 21 R RF 2020 40
32 Ricardo Pinto 23 AA RHP 2017 40
33 Malquin Canelo 22 A+ SS 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lakewood HS (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 40/45 30/40 50/50 50/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .244/.328/.318 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Scouting Report
Crawford’s lackluster statistical output at Triple-A in 2016 is far less problematic when you accept that his 2015 and 2016 stints at Double-A were embellished by the same hitting environment that has given us Angry Philly Sports Radio hype for Darin Ruf and Matt Rizzotti. I’ve been to Reading a lot and can’t explain what’s going on there; batted balls just keep going until they’re over the wall. This is important to consider throughout the duration of this piece as we have a few hitters on this list who had huge years there at some point, and their statistical output requires context.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Ten Days to Sanctity

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Arizona.

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat, go.

12:03

Nientsniew: What happened to Giolito’s mechanics that made him struggle?

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure Giolito has said publicly that they tried to make him more upright, but I don’t know that that’s why he struggled. It just seems illogical, on the surface, to mess with one of the better pitching prospects in baseball like that.

12:04

AA: Which Cody Reed do you feel will have the better career? I feel Cincinnati’s Reed has been a bit disappointing but still think he’s got more upside than Cody Reed Arizona.

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: CIN’s Cody Reed I think will be a fine mid-rotation starter. I do not ARI’s Cody Reed to be a prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat vs Monster Zero

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: So, there are A LOT of questions in the queue about other peoples’ lists. I won’t be answering any of those.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I will say this…

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: The gap between Prospect # 20 on a list and prospect #80 on someone else’s looks a lot bigger than it actually is.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’m looking at my Top 100 right now and the gap between #2 on the list and #21 is literally a half grade

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: And those tiers get even bigger the further down you go.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 24 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Cardinals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Alex Reyes 22 MLB RHP 2017 65
2 Delvin Perez 18 R SS 2021 55
3 Sandy Alcantara 21 A+ RHP 2018 55
4 Carson Kelly 22 MLB C 2017 50
5 Luke Weaver 23 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Jack Flaherty 21 A+ RHP 2018 50
7 Dakota Hudson 22 A+ RHP 2019 50
8 Eliezer Alvarez 22 A 2B 2019 45
9 Magneuris Sierra 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Edmundo Sosa 20 A+ SS 2019 45
11 Harrison Bader 22 AAA OF 2017 45
12 Junior Fernandez 19 A+ RHP 2018 45
13 Paul DeJong 23 AA 2B 2017 45
14 Jordan Hicks 20 A- RHP 2020 40
15 Austin Gomber 23 AA LHP 2018 40
16 Randy Arozarena 21 AAA UTIL 2018 40
17 Marcos Gonzalez 24 MLB LHP 2017 40
18 Jake Woodford 20 A RHP 2020 40
19 Nick Plummer 20 R OF 2021 40
20 Dylan Carlson 18 R OF 2020 40
21 Andrew Morales 24 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Connor Jones 22 A- RHP 2019 40
23 Zac Gallen 21 R RHP 2019 40
24 John Gant 24 MLB RHP 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

1. Alex Reyes, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republlic
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 45/50 60/60 55/60 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Average fastball velo was 97 mph in big-league appearances.

Scouting Report
The rate at which Reyes missed bats during his 46-inning big-league stint last year is encouraging considering he only turned 22 in August and his repertoire is still relatively amorphous. By now you should know about his fastball, a plus-plus seed that sits in the mid-90s and will crest 100 during relief outings. That velocity arguably allows an already average-to-above changeup play as plus as hitters are geared up for elite velocity only to wave helplessly at a fading 86-91.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Stopwatch Funeral

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone. Sorry the chat is late today. I was beginning work on the Cardinals list.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers list went up today, so check that out if you haven’t already.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, off we go…

1:31
Alan: How many prospects in the Atlanta system would be the top prospect in the Marlins’ system?

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Like 6? Don’t sleep on Braxton Garrett.

1:32
Barnard: If a player had an 80 hit tool, but the rest of his tools were 20, what would his ceiling be? Incredible pinch hitter?

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 25 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Brewers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Lewis Brinson 22 AAA CF 2017 60
2 Corey Ray 22 A+ OF 2018 60
3 Luis Ortiz 21 AA RHP 2018 55
4 Isan Diaz 20 A 2B 2019 55
5 Josh Hader 22 AAA LHP 2017 55
6 Brandon Woodruff 23 AA RHP 2017 50
7 Lucas Erceg 21 A 3B 2019 50
8 Marcos Diplan 20 A+ RHP 2018 50
9 Trent Clark 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Mauricio Dubon 22 AA SS 2017 45
11 Phil Bickford 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
12 Ryan Cordell 24 AA OF 2017 45
13 Jorge Lopez 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
14 Cody Ponce 22 A+ RHP 2018 45
15 Brett Phillips 22 AA OF 2018 45
16 Monte Harrison 21 A RF 2020 40
17 Gilbert Lara 19 R SS 2021 40
18 Corbin Burnes 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Kodi Medeiros 20 A+ LHP 2019 40
20 Devin Williams 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
21 Demi Orimoloye 20 R OF 2022 40
22 Jacob Nottingham 21 AA C/1B 2018 40
23 Freddy Peralta 20 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Mario Feliciano 18 R C 2021 40
25 Damien Magnifico 25 MLB RHP 2017 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Coral Springs HS (FL)
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 50/60 60/60 50/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .382/.387/.618 at Triple-A Colorado Springs after trade.

Scouting Report
A physical freak who has undergone a half-decade of physical growth and mechanical adjustments to reach the doorstep of the majors, Brinson headlined the package sent to Milwaukee for Jonathan Lucroy ahead of the trade deadline. He had been struggling through the first few months of the season and missed several weeks with a shoulder injury. Injuries have been a prevalent aspect of Brinson’s pro career and he’s missed substantial playing time during each of the last three years with various ailments, including quad and hamstring issues.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 23 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Cubs Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Eloy Jimenez 20 A OF 2019 60
2 Ian Happ 22 AA 2B 2018 55
3 Oscar De La Cruz 21 A RHP 2019 50
4 Jeimer Candelario 23 MLB 1B 2017 50
5 Jose Albertos 18 R RHP 2020 45
6 Albert Almora 22 MLB CF 2017 45
7 Dylan Cease 21 A- RHP 2019 45
8 Trevor Clifton 21 A+ RHP 2018 45
9 Mark Zagunis 23 AAA OF 2017 45
10 Jose Rosario 26 AAA RHP 2017 45
11 DJ Wilson 20 A- OF 2020 40
12 Eddie Martinez 21 A OF 2019 40
13 Aramis Ademan 18 R SS 2020 40
14 Victor Caratini 23 AA C/1B 2017 40
15 Felix Pena 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Thomas Hatch 22 R RHP 2018 40
17 Isaac Paredes 17 R INF 2022 40
18 Chesny Young 24 AA INF 2018 40
19 Donnie Dewees 23 A+ LF 2018 40
20 Jose Paulino 21 A LHP 2019 40
21 Bryan Hudson 19 A- LHP 2022 40
22 Duane Underwood 22 AA RHP 2018 40
23 Bailey Clark 22 A- RHP 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’4 Weight 235 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 70/80 50/70 45/40 45/50 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded .204 ISO in full-season ball at age 19.

Scouting Report
Jimenez has perhaps the most explosive raw power projection in the minors. When he debuted in the states it was clear his broad-shouldered, 6-foot-4 frame would one day fill out and yield all kinds of crazy power. (He already had at least 55 raw at age 18.) That said, I didn’t expect so much of it to come before Jimenez turned 20. Even when he took batting practice alongside some of the other more prodigious power prospects in the game (Dylan Cozens and Christin Stewart, to name two) at the Futures Game and at Fall Stars, Eloy’s power stood head and shoulders above everyone else’s. Not only does he hit blasts in BP that threaten to enter geocentric orbit but low-lying line drives that, if they don’t clear the wall, seem likely to blast through it.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Dies to Removal

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. Let me tweet a link to this thing and we’ll get started.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, just a heads up that my Diamond Mind draft is currently going on. If I step away for a minute it’s because I’m aggressively trying to move up.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, Cubs prospect list is done and being edited so expect that in a day or so. Brewers are next. That system is fun.

12:05
JimLindeman15: Have you scouted Jordan Hicks, RHP in the Cardinal organization? If so, thoughts? Made two League Top 10 lists, but doesn’t crack anyone’s Cardinal Top 10-20 lists.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen him but it’s 90-93, will show you 95 and it comes in at kind of a funky angle. Flashes above average slider. Good body, delivery is okay. He’s a solid prospect, 45 FV type of arm.

12:06
DR: How much does age of a player factor into your draft ranking? Looks like more and more HS players are 19+ at the draft. Do teams discount for age?

Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting the Braves’ and Rays’ New Prospects

The Seattle Mariners made a pair of moves yesterday, the first of which featured the acquisition of OF Mallex Smith from Atlanta in exchange for pitching prospects Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara. They then turned Smith around and sent him to Tampa along with teenage INF Carlos Vargas and LHP Ryan Yarbrough for LHP Drew Smyly. Below are scouting reports on the prospects involved — as well as for Smith himself.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 21 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Meadows 21 AAA OF 2017 65
2 Tyler Glasnow 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Mitch Keller 20 A+ RHP 2019 55
4 Josh Bell 24 MLB 1B 2017 55
5 Kevin Newman 23 AA SS 2018 50
6 Ke’Bryan Hayes 19 A 3B 2020 50
7 Cole Tucker 20 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Steven Brault 24 MLB LHP 2017 45
9 Will Craig 22 A- DH 2019 45
10 Alen Hanson 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
11 Nick Kingham 25 AAA RHP 2017 45
12 Elias Diaz 26 MLB C 2017 40
13 Taylor Hearn 22 A LHP 2020 40
14 Gage Hinsz 20 A RHP 2020 40
15 Trevor Williams 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Clay Holmes 23 AA RHP 2017 40
17 Luis Escobar 20 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Travis Macgregor 19 R RHP 2020 40
19 Edgar Santana 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
20 Stephen Alemais 21 A SS 2020 40
21 Braeden Ogle 19 R LHP 2022 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Grayson HS (GA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 55/60 45/60 60/55 40/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .266/.333/.536 between Double- and Triple-A as a 21-year-old.

Scouting Report
Meadows dominated Double-A for 45 games before receiving a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Soon after that, he spent a month on the DL with a hamstring injury, the third one with which Meadows has dealt in as many years (he had reoccurring hammy issues in 2014) and never got things going after he returned, slashing .214/.297/.460. Even so, that’s not alarming in any way for a 21-year-old, especially in a small sample.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, the Thaw

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. There’s actual baseball being played here in AZ this week, rejoice rejoice.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, the Pirates list is done and being edited, I’d expect that tomorrow.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin

12:02
Owen: Dylan Cease: SP or RP?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: SP until he proves he can’t do it. I like the progression he’s shown since returning from TJ, less violent delivery, better fastball and curveball control.

12:03
Zonk: Is there something Mark Zagunis can do to get more interesting for you as a prospect guru?

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 32 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Reds Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Senzel 21 A 3B 2018 55
2 Amir Garrett 24 AAA LHP 2017 55
3 Jesse Winker 23 AAA OF 2017 50
4 Aristides Aquino 22 A+ OF 2019 50
5 Shedric Long 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Taylor Trammell 19 R OF 2021 45
7 Robert Stephenson 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
8 Chris Okey 22 A C 2019 45
9 T.J. Friedl 21 R CF 2019 45
10 Luis Castillo 24 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Tyler Stephenson 20 A C 2020 45
12 Alfredo Rodriguez 22 R SS 2018 45
13 Rookie Davis 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
14 Phil Ervin 24 AA OF 2017 45
15 Sal Romano 23 AA RHP 2018 45
16 Tyler Mahle 22 AA RHP 2018 45
17 Keury Mella 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
18 Ariel Hernandez 24 R RHP 2017 40
19 Sebastian Elizalde 25 AAA OF 2018 40
20 Vlad Gutierrez 21 R RHP 2019 40
21 Tony Santillan 19 A RHP 2020 40
22 Austin Brice 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
23 Jimmy Herget 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
24 Blake Trahan 23 A+ SS 2019 40
25 Nick Travieso 22 AA RHP 2018 40
26 Ian Kahaloa 19 R RHP 2021 40
27 Juan Perez 25 R UTIL 2017 40
28 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
29 Alex Blandino 24 AA 2B 2018 40
30 Tanner Rainey 24 A RHP 2018 40
31 Nick Hanson 18 R RHP 2022 40
32 Ryan Hendrix 22 A RHP 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee
Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/60 40/55 55/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86% clip.

Scouting Report
A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome, Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake. Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Back to Work

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from scenic Tempe. Are you well? I hope so. Let’s begin a marvelous discussion about baseball.

12:03
chris: How worrisome is Bradley Zimmer‘s strikeout rate? How does it affect his outlook for 2017?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a bit of a red flag but one that I think he’ll overcome with the power and defense.

12:03
Philip: Which lower level padres prospect that isn’t getting a lot of attention do you think can break out?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Michel Miliano

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a long term one.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 19 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Detroit Tigers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Manning 18 R RHP 2020 55
2 Christin Stewart 23 AA OF 2018 50
3 Beau Burrows 20 A RHP 2020 45
4 Tyler Alexander 22 AA LHP 2018 45
5 Michael Gerber 24 AA OF 2018 45
6 Joe Jimenez 21 AAA RHP 2017 45
7 Dixon Machado 24 MLB SS 2017 45
8 Derek Hill 20 A OF 2021 40
9 Jose Azocar 20 A OF 2020 40
10 Kyle Funkhouser 22 A- RHP 2019 40
11 Jacoby Jones 24 MLB OF 2017 40
12 Adam Ravenelle 24 AA RHP 2017 40
13 Gerson Moreno 21 A+ RHP 2019 40
14 Sandy Baez 23 A RHP 2019 40
15 Hector Martinez 20 R SS 2021 40
16 Arvicent Perez 22 A C 2020 40
17 Kevin Ziomek 24 A+ LHP 2018 40
18 Spencer Turnbull 24 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 A.J. Simcox 22 A+ SS 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Sheldon HS (CA)
Age 19 Height 6’6 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded 46 recorded in 29 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Manning is the prototypical prep righty. He has tremendous size, throws hard, is a terrific athlete (he was committed to Loyola Marymount to play baseball and basketball) with great bloodlines (his father played in the NBA) and has exhibited a nascent feel for a potentially dominant curveball. Any high-school pitcher cooking with that list of ingredients is a slam-dunk first-round pick, and Manning was clearly the second-best high-school righty in the 2016 draft.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, Making a List

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, hope you’re all well. ICYMI, the Royals prospect list went up yesterday and I’m finishing up Detroit today before moving on to the NL Central. Let’s begin…

12:03
Roadhog: Any thoughts on Paul Blackburn?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Teams typically need 10 starters to get through a season and Blackburn projects as one of those 10, an up and down depth arm.

12:04
Bill: I miss Josh Tobias and wish him the best. Thoughts on him?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Good feel for the barrel, good approach, scouts don’t like the defense at 2B and he doesn’t have the power to profile anywhere else so it’s a bench bat profile. He’ll need to diversify his defensive portfolio moving forward.

12:05
John: Which level of the Padres minor league system will be the one to watch?

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 20 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Kansas City Royals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)

Royals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Strahm 25 MLB LHP 2017 55
2 Hunter Dozier 25 MLB 3B 2017 50
3 Josh Staumont 22 AA RHP 2018 45
4 Ryan O’Hearn 23 AA 1B 2018 45
5 Scott Blewett 20 A RHP 2020 45
6 A.J. Puckett 21 A RHP 2019 45
7 Khalil Lee 18 R OF 2021 45
8 Eric Skoglund 24 AA LHP 2017 45
9 Meibrys Viloria 19 R C 2020 45
10 Jorge Bonifacio 23 AAA OF 2017 45
11 Seuly Matias 18 R OF 2021 40
12 Nolan Watson 19 A RHP 2020 40
13 Jake Junis 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
14 Kyle Zimmer 25 AA RHP 2019 40
15 Samir Duenez 20 AA 1B 2019 40
16 Chase Vallot 20 A C 2020 40
17 Miguel Almonte 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
18 Garrett Davila 19 R LHP 2019 40
19 Jeison Guzman 18 R SS 2021 40
20 Nicky Lopez 21 R SS 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Matt Strahm, LHP
Drafted: 21st Round, 2012 from Neosho CCC (KS)
Age 25 Height 6’4 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 60/70 45/50 50/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 30 strikeouts in 22 big-league innings.

Scouting Report
Strahm saw a 148% uptick in innings as a sophomore at Neosho CC in 2012 and pitched complete games in 11 of his 14 starts (though many of them were not a full nine innings). Strahm dominated and his stuff ticked up as the year went along. (All told, Strahm added almost 15 mph to his fastball between his senior year of high school and his sophomore year of JUCO.) Nevertheless, he lasted until the 21st round of June’s draft. He began experiencing discomfort in his elbow during the 2012 offseason and was misdiagnosed with a stress reaction when in fact he needed Tommy John, which he ultimately received in the summer of 2013. He missed all of 2014 recovering.

Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting the White Sox’ Return for Adam Eaton

The White Sox continued adding to their suddenly robust farm system yesterday, acquiring a trio of pitching prospects from Washington in exchange for star outfielder Adam Eaton. Below are my scouting reports on the prospects involved. Lucas Giolito (60 Future Value) will slot in behind Yoan Moncada on the next revision of the White Sox prospect list, the completions of which I might delay until Rick Hahn’s purge of the major-league roster appears complete. Reynaldo Lopez will slot between Michael Kopech and Zack Collins as a 55 FV, while Dane Dunning will be the top 45 FV on the list.

The once Prodigious Lucas Giolito has more recently become the Enigmatic Lucas Giolito. While he remains one of baseball’s best pitching prospects after an inconsistent 2016, Giolito is no longer head-and-shoulders the game’s best. The opinions of scouts who saw Giolito this year make for an interesting collage of hope, fear, tempered expectations and patience, but all agree that front-end starter upside is still extant, if a bit less likely.

That kind of upside has been apparent since Giolito’s days at Harvard-Westlake, where, before suffering a season-ending elbow injury that would later require Tommy John surgery, he was generating potential 1-1 buzz and had a legitimate chance to become the first right-handed high-school pitcher ever taken with the draft’s first pick.

Read the rest of this entry »