Author Archive
by Paul Swydan - June 18, 2013
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| 6:08 |
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
Join us tonight at 9 pm ET for lots of hot baseball action, served up hot!
I’ll get some polls up in the meantime. Or you can suggest some polls. Or you can put in questions. Or you can make fun of my appearance. Or you can be a fairy. Or a queen. It’s wiiiiiiide open.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vay4uTJ2a50
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| 9:00 |
Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s light this candle!
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| 9:00 |
Comment From zorzomatt harvey matt harvey matt harvey matt harvey? matt harvey? matt harvey matt harvey?
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by Paul Swydan - June 18, 2013
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Ah, another fortnight has passed. How did you spend them? Perhaps you were deeply immersed in the Teapot Dome scandal? Perhaps you were eagerly awaiting the release of “Yeezus?” Perhaps you were simply watching the paint dry in anticipation of the next iteration of this series? I know I was doing at least one of these things.
As always, you can peep the explanation of our depth charts and standings pages — which fuel The Fortnight like so much lemon lime Gatorade — here. This week, we’ll be looking at the fortnight’s biggest losers.
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by Paul Swydan - June 14, 2013
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In 150 at-bats back in 2011, Brett Lawrie captured our attention and imagination. “If he could hit nine homers in such a short time, Lawrie could have 30-homer potential over the course of a full season,” is likely a sentence you read before the 2012 season. It’s probably a sentence I wrote, as a matter of fact. In the season and a half since though, Lawrie has hit just 16 homers, and has battled a myriad of injuries. He’s just 23-years-old, but perhaps it’s time we stopped waiting for Lawrie to be a star.
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by Paul Swydan - June 14, 2013
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| 12:46 |
Marc Hulet: Hi all… we’ll begin in about 15 minutes and will be chatting about prospects, draft signings… basically whatever you’d like so feel free to get your questions in now.
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| 12:56 |
Comment From BenMaikel Franco…major helium? Top 50 in the game at this point?
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| 12:57 |
Marc Hulet: Definite helium… I’ll be doing an update Top 50 prospects list in July but I don’t currently expect him to be on it… but we’ll see.
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| 12:57 |
Comment From Rated RookieMiguel Sano and Xander Bogaerts. Who has the better power potential? And between the two, who is more likely to realize that potential?
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| 12:57 |
Marc Hulet: Sano has better power — pure 80. Bogaerts is a more well-rounded player… both are top prospects, though. I’d love to have either one on my team…
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| 12:58 |
Comment From JohnWheeler coming up Tuesday. Obviously, there is a lot of pressure, especially considering what Harvey did last year and that, at least until this year, Wheeler was always considered the better of the two. Does that have any impact on his performance and how the FO views his performance?
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by Paul Swydan - June 11, 2013
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| 6:04 |
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
Chris, Jeff AND myself will be live with you tonight at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball down your cramholes. In the meantime, I’ll get up some polls, and you post some questions and comments. It’s just crazy enough to work.
See you soon!
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| 9:01 |
Paul Swydan: Six shutout innings from Gerrit Cole > seven walks from Jon Lester.
Let’s light this turkey.
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| 9:01 |
Chris Cwik: Hi, everyone. Been a while.
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| 9:01 |
Paul Swydan: Chris is married now you guys. Tell Chris congratulations!
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| 9:01 |
Jeff Zimmerman: I am working on a poll, will jump in soon.
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| 9:02 |
Paul Swydan: Btw, 56% of you are pissing me off. Man of Steel looks AMAZING.
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by Paul Swydan - June 10, 2013
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It’s hard to find a good, stable middle infield combination, especially offensively, since so many players at those positions are defensive specialists who are happy to see a blooper fall in occasionally. When a team like the Padres puts together a good middle infield combo seemingly overnight, it’s definitely worthy of mention. In shortstop Everth Cabrera and second baseman Jedd Gyorko, San Diego may have one of the game’s most surprisingly effective middle infield duos.
If we were to focus only on 2013 performance as a marker of overall ability, then we’d be forced to note that only 11 teams have qualified players at each position. We don’t want to knock out the other 19 teams for not having qualifiers, but there are some we can eliminate right off the bat. Four teams — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners and Marlins — don’t have a qualified player at either position. Perhaps — in another year — the combo of Jose Reyes and Maicer Izturis will merit mention, but not now. The same goes for Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter with the Yankees, as they won’t get enough playing time out of Jeter to merit consideration this season.
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by Paul Swydan - June 7, 2013
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You’ve probably heard the Daniel Nava story before. He went undrafted out of college, was initially cut by the independent Chico Outlaws, and when the Red Sox did sign him, they only paid $1. (Boston would eventually pay $1,499 more). Three years later, Nava broke into the majors — but not for good. Even devout Red Sox fans would be forgiven if they’d forgotten Nava’s name heading into 2012, and he has never been part of Boston’s Plan A. But he’s waited for his turn — and so far this season, he’s been one of baseball’s best hitters.
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by Paul Swydan - June 7, 2013
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| 11:56 |
Comment From MilhouseHave you seen Carson Kelly live? Thoughts? I know he’s young.
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| 11:57 |
Marc Hulet: We’ll officially get started…. I have not seen Kelly live but I’ve seen video and have also spoken to talent evaluators who are high on the young hitter. He’s struggling a bit but is still just 18 in the Midwest League… the org is very high on him.
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| 11:57 |
Comment From MilhouseHas your opinion of Daniel Robertson changed from the offseason? Is he a guy I should be trying to acquire even if it’s a slight overpay?
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| 11:58 |
Marc Hulet: I’m surprised he’s been as steady at SS as he has been… a lot of people expected him to become a permanent 3B right away. I’m very happy with the early returns.
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| 11:59 |
Comment From Hunter Pences ThoraxAstros GM Jeff Luhnow recently said George Springer is staying in the minors. Is this a money thing, or a Springer thing, or both?
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by Paul Swydan - June 6, 2013
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| 5:27 |
Al Skorupa: Welcome to the chat! Please leave your questions and we’ll be starting around 6:30. In the meantime I’ve got some videos for you related to the latest rumors from my buddies Steve Fiorindo and Tyler Bullock.
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| 5:59 |
Al Skorupa: I wanted to discuss some draft basics before we begin. First off, let’s remember that the baseball amateur draft is a different creature than the other pro sports drafts. We hear a lot about “best player available,” but this draft has never really been about that – it’s about the best mix of value and talent. Cost is a major part of the equation. This isn’t teams being cheap – this is about how to best use limited resources on some… less than stable investments. As a logical extension of that, prior to the new slotting could a team have gone crazy and spent four times what every other team spent and got great results? Yes… but at a very poor ROI. Projecting teenagers and young men physically and in terms of how their skills would develop is HARD. Just like the people around you in your life when you were young there are an infinite number of variable that will determine their success or failure in life. This is very, very far from an exact science and that’s why I have a tremendous amount of respect for amateur scouts and the near impossible job they’re given.
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| 6:03 |
Al Skorupa: I also think a common misconception is that there is a real consensus out there on players. There really isn’t much of a consensus. Scouts differ all the time on players. It’s pretty wide open. Watching some of these guys on the Cape last year who will be taken early tonight and I’d come across cross checkers who would tell me a guy nearly everyone projects for the first round “can’t hit” and they wouldn’t take him. Teams look for different things. Individual scouts look for different things and the process is nowhere as exact as many people imagine.
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| 6:05 |
Al Skorupa: That brings me to… myself. Who am I and why is it worth you reading my chat? Well, I write about prospects for Fangraphs and you can find my work other places – primarily bullpenbanter.com, a site I started with fellow FG prospects writer JD Sussman and a few other talented writers. I do a lot of amateur coverage over there and I’m glad to bring some of it over to FG since I enjoy watching amateurs (as opposed to minor leaguers – who I also enjoy watching!).
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by Paul Swydan - June 4, 2013
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| 6:43 |
Paul Swydan: By the way, we’re taking suggestions for Jeff’s injury tool. Early front runners are the reader-suggested acryonyms HURT Score (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma), or PAIN (Player’s Abiding Injury Number).
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| 9:01 |
Paul Swydan: Hi guys, let’s do this! Sorry if you couldn’t submit questions for awhile, I closed my computer like a dum-dum. But the phone lines are open now!
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| 9:02 |
Comment From Doo bobSubtracted Performance Runs After Injury Notice (SPRAIN)
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| 9:02 |
Paul Swydan: That’s a good one. Jeff will be along in a sec, btw.
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| 9:02 |
Comment From Roster RoosterHow about F-HIM (Forecaster of Hidden Injury Metric)
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by Paul Swydan - June 4, 2013
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Welcome to the second edition of The Fortnight. Read here for our initial post, and here for the explanation of our depth charts and standings pages, which fuel The Fortnight in its utmost.
This week, I thought we’d take a look at the teams whose projected full-season run differential has changed the most since we last left off. Stats for this edition run from May 21 through the games on June 2.
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by Paul Swydan - May 31, 2013
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Thursday night, the Tigers got yet another great pitching performance from their starting rotation, as Doug Fister struck out 12 over seven shutout innings. But a couple of hours after he came out of the game the Tigers walked off extra-inning losers, and it was basically all manager Jim Leyland’s fault.
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by Paul Swydan - May 28, 2013
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Ian Kennedy cut his finger recently while washing dishes. As a result, Tyler Skaggs got the start in the early game of Monday’s Memorial Day twinbill against the Rangers, and he acquitted himself quite well. The start threw into sharp relief just how necessary Kennedy is to the Dbacks plans, both current and future. As we move further away from his breakout season, it is fair to wonder — is Kennedy about to be the odd man out in the Arizona rotation?
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by Paul Swydan - May 24, 2013
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Earlier this week, the Rockies sent Josh Rutledge to Colorado Springs. To be certain, Rutledge was not playing well, and there is a decent chance that Rutledge really isn’t that good in general. Then again, he may also need to just figure out who he is. He was semi-rushed to the majors, as he skipped Triple-A, and there is anecdotal evidence that his game has changed since his hot start.
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by Paul Swydan - May 21, 2013
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| 6:06 |
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
Jeff Zimmerman and I will be here to entertain all of your baseball-related queries. Chris Cwik will NOT be here, something about preparing to get married this weekend. I don’t know, sounds suspect.
Anyway, get in your questions. As a tribute to Chris, we’ll be running some polls on your favorite movie with a wedding scene. There’s tons, so don’t be mad if I don’t pick yours. Or, be mad if you want, it’s up to you really.
See you soon!
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| 8:45 |
Paul Swydan: We’ll start in 15 minutes. By the way, if you have a tasteful message of good luck — or of warning — for Chris, drop it in the comments, and we’ll run them at the end of the chat!
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| 9:01 |
Paul Swydan: Hi guys. Let’s get started. Jeff will be along shortly.
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| 9:02 |
Comment From TimWould you trade A.Jones and P.Corbin for M.Trout?
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| 9:03 |
Paul Swydan: Probably. I like all three players, but if you’re going for it, I like the gamble on Trout.
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| 9:03 |
Comment From asdfasdfWould you bench Cishek for David Hernandez now that the Marlins are going with a committee? Thanks
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by Paul Swydan - May 21, 2013
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A couple of weeks ago, you the attentive reader, will surely have observed the introduction of our depth charts and standings pages. It was a long time coming, and we remain pretty freaking excited about it. As such, we thought that every two weeks that we’d take a look at some sort of change or happening or goings-on that occurred.
We’re not going to cover every team, because let’s face it, there really is only so many times that one can write a variation of “the Marlins aren’t even trying” without wanting to scrape out your eyebones with a rusty screwdriver. But we’ll still try to pry out an objective look in some way. This week, we’ll take a look at the three biggest movers — one positive and two negative — in terms of ranking of projected full season winning percentage. (One note — the looks here are from last Tuesday, the 14th, to this morning, but in future editions we’ll likely use Monday as the cut-off day for a number of reasons, nearly all of which involve my sanity.)
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by Paul Swydan - May 17, 2013
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In the 1990s, the Yankees had a pretty fantastic offense. They won three World Series trophies, and would win a fourth to kick off the aught’s. Everyone remembers their great offense. But what might get lost in the weeds a little bit is just how fantastic the Astros’ offense was in the ‘90s, because they were pretty great too. They had the best offense in the National League for the decade, and they would really hit their stride in 1998, when they put up the best offensive team performance in the wild card era.
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by Paul Swydan - May 14, 2013
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| 6:20 |
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
For the second straight week, I am flying solo, because both Chris and Jeff will be watching live baseball in stadiums. It’s almost like they don’t like you guys anymore. But I still love you, so join me tonight at 9 pm ET, and I’ll cram some baseball down your cramhole.
Get your questions in and I’ll see you soon!
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| 9:00 |
Paul Swydan: One sec guys. Cracking a Shipyard Summer real quick. The people have spoken!
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| 9:01 |
Comment From AJTIs Chris and Jeff skipping out on everyone. Should they be punished?
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| 9:02 |
Paul Swydan: Don’t worry, they will be!
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| 9:02 |
Comment From WilliamWith reinforcements coming, could you see the Yankees pulling away?
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| 9:02 |
Paul Swydan: Nope. I think the AL East is still a five-team race. Not ready to even declare the Blue Jays dead and buried. Maybe in a couple more weeks though…
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by Paul Swydan - May 13, 2013
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It’s hard to imagine the White Sox having a more depressing start to the season. They are stuck in last place in the American League Central, and their hitting has been abysmal. When you remove pitchers’ hitting from the equation, the White Sox wRC+ is tied for dead last in baseball with the Marlins, who are not even trying to field a competitive team. And while usually the team has fan favorite Paul Konerko to look to as a bright spot, even he has stumbled badly out of the gate. With the AL Central suddenly seeming rather competitive, the question arises — is it time for the White Sox to blow it up and sell?
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by Paul Swydan - May 7, 2013
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| 6:26 |
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!
There’s a 95% chance that I’m flying solo tonight. Chris is definitely not going to be here, and Jeff probably won’t be. So you’re stuck with me and all of my nerdly glory!
Get your questions in, and I’ll be back at 9 p.m. ET to tackle as many of them as I possibly can.
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| 6:37 |
Paul Swydan: Jeff wants to know – what ballparks do you believe are affected the most by a specific wind direction? Let me know your thoughts and I’ll post them.
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| 9:01 |
Paul Swydan: Alright, let’s do this thing!
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| 9:01 |
Comment From Stuck in a SlumpNo one seems to be talking about Scott Feldman, but the guy went 7 innings and limited the Rangers to 3 base runners. In his last four starts he has a 1.63 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with a 7.5 K/9 rate. Is this for real?
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| 9:02 |
Paul Swydan: Well, he’s not good enough to consistently post a 1.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, but he is an underrated play, and the K/9 could definitely stand up. I like him as a 4th/5th starter in mixed leagues, and even better in NL only leagues.
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| 9:03 |
Comment From shirleydid clay cheat? Is Eckersley just a wee bit too protective of him?
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