Baltimore Should Open The Market
The Baltimore Orioles are a shocking 17 games out of first place. Part of it is that they’ve played really poorly, but that has been compounded with Tampa Bay playing excellent baseball and opening up a canyon sized gap despite the calendar still reading May. However, while their playoff odds may be zero due in large part because of the division they play in, the fact still remains that the Orioles hold no realistic chance of playing baseball in October of this year.
With that being made clear so quickly, the Orioles should take advantage of the one silver lining in the cloud that is their 2010 season – the ability to be the first seller to market.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve heard multiple GMs explaining that there simply isn’t a market of available players yet. The oft-quoted principle of the first third of the season being for evaluating your roster has spread, and historically, there have been very few significant trades made before June. Organizations are reticent to wave the white flag too early in a given season, and prefer to wait until summer before becoming sellers.
This reluctance to trade, quite simply, an opportunity for the Orioles. They have several pieces who could be of interest to potential contenders who need to improve sooner than later, and could peddle the likes of Kevin Millwood, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, and Miguel Tejada without any serious competition from other teams who will join the market in a month or two.
Being the only seller in a market where there is demand for players can only be a good thing for the Orioles. While they have some attractive pieces, players like Wigginton won’t stand up as well once the market gets crowded with better players being made available. Right now, he would be the best right-handed hitter any team could acquire, though that almost certainly won’t be true in July.
There’s no point in waiting any longer. The Orioles should let every GM know that their players are available, and they’re willing to deal. They might not be selling grade A premium beef, but there’s a reason Taco Bell does so well at 2 am – they’re the only ones open.
I wonder when the Mariners will realize that their situation is a poor man’s version of the Rays-O’s and similarly begin marketing their non-Ichiro players of value?
With the notable exception of Lee, the “non-Ichiro” players are either ones they want to keep or ones no one else wants either. About their only non-Lee trade piece of any value is Aardsma — and there just aren’t many contending teams desperate enough for a closer yet to give up anything of value.
Yes, teams are just lining up to acquire Jose Lopez.
What, you mean Brandon League isn’t a valuable trade chip? It was in jest.
All the great moves by Jack Z haven’t exactly had the Midas Touch. The team is a morbidly interesting combination of core pieces (Felix, Ichiro, Figgins, and maybe Gutierrez) and spare parts that have more value to the Mariners (because they lack backup depth at the positions) than any other team. And that’s hoping that Figgins doesn’t have Atkins disease. Maybe they get something for Lopez and Aardsma, but aside from Lee there are no other Mariners that another team needs more than the Mariners themselves.
I’m excited to see what happens when they just dump Griffey, Sweeney and Bradley.
There’s no “maybe” about Gutierrez.
I doubt they drop Bradley. There’s still a chance they can get some value out of him over this season and next. The Hugging Platoon will probably find itself on the DL in stages rather than being dropped. After all, there are still several more Griffey giveaway nights this season, and how else to they get butts in seats this summer now that the whole “win games” thing is off the table?
“Morbidly interesting?”
I wonder when people will be able to read a Dave Cameron article without immediately making it about the Mariners.
Probably never. Between all the spill-over from USSMariner, and all the people who want to hate on Cameron no matter what he writes, you’re going to have people going off on M’s-centric tangents no matter what.
I think Cameron’s a good writer, and a smart analyst, but there are O’s fans who still spit on Jeffrey Maier’s name. That’s the sort of reaction I have to the myopia there is regarding the Mariners outlook (like their organizational ranking).
I think they’re going to wait til the deadline and make Lee a rent-a-player then, since there is so much promise for success. Selling guys off now in the AL West is probably admitting defeat a tad too soon.
Yeah, the AL West is way too open for anyone to start selling now.
Dave, you can’t wait for a trade can you?
Orioles are boring unless they trade Roberts.
The other reason to trade off productive veterans is that it will help immensely in the race to the bottom for Anthony Rendon.
excellent analogy at the end, Dave.
the other other reason to do so is to get Arrieta into the majors so I can nab him in my keeper league.
Who’s buying and what would they be offering?
The Cardinals will take Miguel Tejada plz… or any other MIF who can hit 1.5 times his weight.
They have at least one (Lopez) if they would play him. Time to put the ‘scrappy’ Brendan Ryan (read: ultra light-hitting) into the backup role he was meant for.
there is a reason that dumps don’t happen early. teams aren’t willing to part with prospects unless they know they are going to be in it at the end.
the teams that know that now are good enough that they don’t need mid-level fillers. everyone else isn’t going to risk it until they know this mid-tier guy is going to put them over the edge for sure.
Not all prospects are created equal. I don’t think any team that picked up Scott or Wigginton would have to sell the farm to do so, and I can see a couple of teams that are either in contention or near contention that could use a hitter or two.
Here are the teams that I think could be legitimate buyers for either of those guys: Giants, Dodgers, Reds, Braves, A’s, Angels, and Tigers.
Wigginton to Colorado please.
interesting point. how much of the lack of an early trade market is a reflection of borderline/questionable buyers not wanting to give up a prospect for an expensive veteran until July, when they might have a better, more realistic view of their playoff chances and an ownership caught up in playoff fever, willing to take on additional salary??
i guess what i’m saying is that being first to the market probably is good if you have poor/questionable players, but might not be as great as an advantage when the players your attempting to deal have value?
That’s not the only reason Taco Bell does well at 2am
You’re right. The Orioles GM needs to get the other GMs drunk.
Way ahead of you. hic
Me too!
SPRING BREAK WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
What’s going on guys? Am I late?
SPRING BREAK!!
Dave, you completely misunderstand the method to Andy McPhail’s madness. Yes, the Orioles record looks horrible now. But take a closer look… after that horrific 2-16 start, they’ve played .500 ball. If they keep it up, they win 74 games. If things break O.K., they might win 76 or even 78. With their solid core of talented young players (Matusz, Weiters, Markakis, Jones, Pie, Bergeson, Hernandez, Berken) plus a group of solid prospects (Arrieta, Tillman, Bell, Snyder, Reimold, Britton), the O’s would be in a good position to build on a 74-78 win season with a couple of significant free-agent signings and the continued development of prospects.
On the other hand, giving up now and trading their decent vets for a few C+ and B- prospects just guarantees a repeat of last year’s disaster and puts off progress for at least 1 and probably more years.
I still have faith in The Plan… and I think AP will reward us long-suffering and die-hard Orioles fans within a year or two.
As an Orioles fan, I agree. Our attendance is worse than any point since we opened the stadium. We have a lame duck manager, some of our better young players have started the season quite poorly (eg. Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder, Nolan Riemold, Adam Jones, David Hernandez), and of course there is a lot of “I told you so” going on with the Garrett Atkins signing. All of this leads to an extremely disgruntled fanbase – I would say only the Royals give us a money for how frustrated at our team we are right now. Fan support is a somewhat important part of winning ballgames (I mean you have teams like the Marlins, Athletics, and Rays who get away with not having a lot of fans – but they are also pretty low budget teams to begin with).
From a purely baseballing perspective, it makes sense to start shopping our veterans – even if nobody wants to give up anything yet, it’s not like Kevin Millwood is going to be put out that the worst team in the majors wants to trade him to a good team. But from the fans’ perspective, it would take a lot of people over the edge…
I would hate to find out the Andy’s “plan” is to build around a mediocre veteran core of a sub-.500 team. I know O’s fans have been through a lot in 15 years, but to start worrying about winning 75 games rather than 65 seems short-sighted to me. Guys like Millwood and Wigginton should be moved before the shine comes off their strong starts, if the O’s can get anything resembling a high-upside prospect, even in the low minors they have to do it.
Building the team should be about trying to compete for a championship someday right? All I care about as a fan is seeing improvement out of the core young players and building the talent base, actual wins and losses don’t mean much to me right now. I guess I’m in the minority on this, though…
On your first point, I have two words to make your case – Jarrod. Washburn. Deal the vets before their rates/career norms catch up to them and you won’t get nearly as much. Is Ty Wigginton going to continue a 25% HR/FB ratio and club nearly 50 this year? Will Kevin Millwood continue to strike out 7 per 9 innings for the full season when he hasn’t done that since 2004? We all know the answers here – they need to start selling.
Totally agree with Haze n’ Dan-o. May as well be first to market with your trading chips – winning 75 games or 65 really matters not at this point. In that division, it’s all a far, far cry from post-season play.
Most teams have real talent after a core of four good players. The Orioles have Felix Pie, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Jason Berken. Sad…
And you might want to cross Bell and Snyder off your “solid prospects” list. Bell still can’t hit lefties and Snyder hasn’t done a damn thing to prove that his studly 58 games in AA last year wasn’t a fluke.
And, in his 20 years as a front office executive, when has Andy MacPhail ever made a “significant free-agent signing”?
The “method to MacPhail’s madness” is to trade vets for prospects, then acquire more mediocre vets only to trade them for more prospects a year later. Then, with all of those prospects in the pipeline, hopefully things will shake out to a .500+ record at some point in the next 10 years.
PS – I’m an O’s fan.
When Pie, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken are the “talented young players” in your organization, something is very wrong.
The O’s have a decent plan, but the Jays and Rays have better current teams and futures while the other 2 teams always have their money. Things are not going to change any time soon for the O’s. Maybe Epstein will continue to spend like a drunken sailor or the Rays will salary dump their way to a poor season, but that’s it.
Oops… meant AM, not AP.
Baltimore should open their assholes because they are getting fuuuuuuuucked.
Agreed entirely. Even though you want to build momentum for the future, the vets you got now, are only hurting your pocketbook, and not helping you win Championships. Deal those guys now for best prospects available, and promise your fans when the time is right, the 20 million you saved on some combo of Millwood/Scott/Wigz/Tejada/Roberts/Uehara, or whomever else, is 20 extra million you’re going to be willing to spend when that window truly opens in 2-3 years.
There isn’t any reason to justify the Orioles having a payroll in excess of 90 million dollars. I’d argue even if you’re not getting back grade A talent, just lessening the financial burden now, to be put back into the club when the time is right, is by far the better decision going forward.
Late to the party here, but Dave, this was a nice little write-up. Thanks for the great work.
No matter who we got to trade and who we can get back in return it still comes down to the fact that we have a crappy manager whose lost this clubhouse for sure!! I have held back since the start of this season, thinking, no hoping Trembles would come good and stop sqwaking the same old excuses at the end of games, but nope he hasn’t!! I agree fully on dealing off some of our halfway decent ballplayers, but this has got to start showing some kind of improvement soon or I’ll lose my faith in Andy McPhail whom I use to call Andy McFlop!! I mean people is it me or does this club need new leadership?? Look at KC, they got a new manager and he’s got them rolling, I know it’s KC, but they once had a rich tradition of winning just like ‘dem O’s right…. Anyhoo ending this by once more stating that you must chop off the head to kill the beast, well that wasnt correct, just fire Dave “Trembles” Trembelly….
@T-Car … Good points. BAL would likely not receive any ML quality prospects, nut freeing up money might help in the future. Still, the only realistic way they’re going to compete is through the draft and signing their young stars to team friendly contracts (Like TBR). Any bid FA’s they’d likely be interested in would also attract the interest of BOS and NYY and we know who’s not going to win that bidding war.
Ty Wigginton isn’t the first guy with a “slider-speed” bat to enjoy a very productive career without ever getting any respect. Eric Hinske, saving ATL’s offense right now, also comes to mind.
I’m skeptical that BAL will be able to compete with BOS and NYY even with making all the right moves.
Too much inherent disparity to overcome, IMO. Even TBR is likely to lose Craw and Pena at the end of the year and slide back.
I don’t understand…are you saying they shouldn’t even try to make the right moves, then?
And Tampa is showing that the “right moves” are creating a window for them to level the playing field and compete. Might it be a small window that exists for only a short time? Sure. Might the margin for error (in trades, free agent signings, drafting, etc) be razor thin, when you’re being outspent 3:1 by the neighborhood bullies? Sure. But does it mean you shouldn’t try?
(Understand I’m not trying to be snarky, just teasing out what your conclusion was to the premise you stated.)
I have to echo Dave (my fellow O’s fan, not Cameron) on this one. I’ve been thinking this through recently as well, and on principle I agree. I’d be all about trading Wigginton while he’s hot or Millwood to a contender who could use some solid innings from a #4. But just as nobody is selling, who exactly is buying? And more importantly, I think what it really comes down to is what impact is a B level prospect really going to have on the team? If I felt confident they could get a return like they did for Sherrill (Josh Bell), then sure, go for it. But will they?
Teams are more willing to make drastic moves at the deadline when they feel they have no other choice. But what team is willing to move a solid, likely future ML starting player with 6 years of control at this point in the season? I don’t see the need in alienating the fans even more and putting an even worse product on the field in exchange for mediocre prospects who are unlikely to play a significant role on a good team. That’s the key to the situation…is whoever we get back going to be good enough to be a contributor to a playoff quality team? If the answer is no, then who cares? That’s just perpetuating a cycle of mediocrity and sacrificing what little quality we have now. And a for Millwood, as young a rotation as we have, and with a bullpen ravaged by injuries, it’s certainly valuable to have a guy who chews up innings if for nothing else than to save the young arms.
In short, I agree that Wigginton, Scott, Millwood and a couple of guys not mentioned (Ohman, Guthrie) are chips that are definitely tradeable. But there’s no sense doing it unless you can get a return of quality.