Baseball!
You’re amazing.
Source: FanGraphs
Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.
96 Responses to “Baseball!”
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Thank you God for making me a baseball fan.
Thank you Dad for making me a Cardinals fan.
I need a new TV, I just threw it and the fridge off my balcony.
I freakin’ love baseball.
Damn!
It’s one of those games where even Ranger fans can show appreciation for how great the game was.
Wow.
Actually, I don’t think I will ever be able to appreciate that game.
I’ve cared about that team more than the Mavs, Stars or Cowboys my entire life.
I spent hours analyzing the dredges of the John Hart era.
And now my team blew two one strike away chances to win the World Series in the same night.
If we win tomorrow… Maybe I’ll gain some perspective.
But if we lose… I’m not sure exactly how I COULD ever appreciate that game.
Loblaw out.
Yup
Yeah, honestly, it has to be this way. I’m rooting for the Rangers, but I’ll sleep fine tonight. If that was my Dodgers in that position though… *shudder*
I know how you feel. As a Giants fan I never got over http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2002-10-26&team=Angels&dh=0&season=2002
Evan, they won last year.
Try being an Indians fan and being one strike away, and watching Mesa refuse to throw his 97mph heat.
Andre, I think each fan has at least one game in their lifetime they will never get over, no matter what.
http://www.fangraphs.com/scoreboard.aspx?date=2003-10-16
pfffff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2003-10-14&team=Cubs&dh=0&season=2003
The Indians were never 1 strike away. To say they were 1 out away would be correct via technicality.
I wouldn’t know what it’s like to be one strike from a World Series win….let alone 108 outs.
I have the worst headache.
Game 7-baseball lives on for another game.
GAME SEVEN!
Show this to all that think stats take the “fun” out of baseball. Wow.
Stats are baseball. All those people who hate baseball don’t realize the statistical backing to it and would rather watch a violent game of football where no thinking is necessary. (Although I do love football just not as much as baseball)
“a violent game of football where no thinking is necessary”.
This is complete ignorance.
RaysFan, you clearly know nothing about about football. I love baseball, but there is far more strategy involved in football.
lolwut. What’s complex about managing a baseball game? What “thinking” is necessary? Wow putting up four fingers to walk Pujols is sooooooooooooooo thought consuming. Screwing up Lynn and motte is something only the elite of the elite can do. Football is ridiculously insane to manage.
In baseball do you ever see a manager say “wow this batter hits so many fly balls that I’ll use a 3-4 outfield-infielder defense.”
Wash deserved to lose this game after not using a PH for Lewis. What a goddamned moron.
One of many reasons he deserved to lose this game. He is AWFUL.
That intentional walk to Pujols. God damn, I don’t even…
THANK YOU. No Rangers fans will admit it but he managed a bad game
That is highly questionable. I live in Texas, and am a Rangers fan. My facebook feed was blown up with countless jabs at Wash’s decisions tonight. I think pretty much every Ranger fan I’ve talked to since last night has said it was one of the worst managed games of his life.
Most Rangers fans (that I know, at least) think the same thing about Wash–below-average game manager, but probably the best, or close to it, in getting his team to play hard for him.
-Walking Player X to get to Player X’s clone in terms of performance.
-Leaving Colby Lewis in to hit in the bases loaded situation.
-Putting the play on to allow Beltre to go to first on a ball sharply hit to third base with a runner going home on contact. (This is almost certainly Washington’s fault. If not, it’s Beltre’s.)
-Pitching Mark Lowe at the end of the game instead of CJ Wilson.
Way to go, Wash. You giant idiot.
“Walking Player X to get to Player X’s clone in terms of performance.”
Yeah, I thought that too. There’s almost no one else on the planet who has hit righties as well as Pujols, but Berkman is one of those guys. Over the last 5 years, wRC+ versus RHP: 160 (Pujols), 159 (Berkman).
Change you’re last point to “removing Feldman for a PH with 2 outs and a runner on first.” He was playing not to lose the whole game, why go for it all there?
how about playing a no-doubles outfield when a single ties it?
Jugen – how about walking a hitter with the winning run at the plate, to get to an equally dangerous hitter with the winning run on first, where a double beats you? I agree they should have been playing normal depth, but they shouldn’t have been in that position anyway.
WE graph, or EEG reading of a Cardinals fan during the game?
Unbelievable. Wildest game I’ve seen in a long time.
I thought that the Geoff Blum home run during the White Sox world series run would be the pinnacle of absolute unbeliveableness in terms of me as a baseball and white sox fan. This has been by far, the best game I have ever seen. There is such a thing as clutch performance and I tip my hat to the Cardinals. Unbelievable.
I don’t think Ron Washington being too coked up to manage a game falls under the definition of clutch, but okay
Really? That’s uncalled for.
This was, undoubtedly, one of the best games I’ve ever seen.
Ahhhhhhhh!
Ron Washington can not be allowed to manage game 7 right?
Maybe Rangers fans need to conduct an intervention prior to the game.
Holy crap. I didn’t need the graph but it is awesome.
Unbelievable. This season has been great.
I’m actually more perplexed about why they didn’t intentionally walk Berkman in the 10th. His run doesn’t matter anyway, and he’s better than Craig…
There were runners on first and second. That would have loaded the bases and put the winning run in scoring position. I can’t blame them for not doing that.
actually the runners were on 2nd and 3rd
No they weren’t. When Berkman came up, Jay was on second and Pujols was on first.
it would have given them a much better chance to win the game if they loaded the bases and put two runners in scoring position
“Baseball!”: The perfect headline for this game. Bravo.
Wow, an exclamation mark by Dave. Something exciting must have happened.
That was definitely one of the best games I’ve ever seen! incredible! I hope they make TV specials about this game the way they’ve done about 1975′s game 6.
I wondered why they didn’t IBB Berkman too.
The Rangers are in trouble tomorrow…. they won’t have Holland available. Feliz might not be totally up for another inning? I’m not sure how durable he is…. he’s been having trouble throwing strikes all series, has anyone else noticed that too? And the Cardinals feel new life… smell blood.
[Feliz has] been having trouble throwing strikes all series, has anyone else noticed that too?
Yeah. The Cardinals.
On top of everything else they’ve had to do to get this far, if the Cardinals seal the deal, this might be the greatest championship run ever.
I think it’s obvious. Ron Washington apparently has a large bet on the Cardinals. Tony La Russa apparently has a large bet on the Rangers. They are both doing their best to preserve their own interests.
Since the Cardinals bat last, I’d say that plays into Washington’s favor. There’s nothing Tony can do to stop several consecutive 9th inning intentional walks for the St. Louis win.
That IBB to Pujols was such an awful move.
I was pulling my hair out.
BTW, anyone got the odds on Washington going with the “no doubles” defense for all of Game 7?
Yep, the one Rangers mistake that trumps everything else is not having Nelson Cruz (and Murphy and Hamilton) just shy of the warning track with two outs in the ninth, a two run lead, and runners on 1st and 2nd. A coach in the dugout (not named Ron Washington) has to check the outfielders and get them to the proper “no doubles” depth. Consider that one the Rangers staff’s botched phone call, only this one was ten times more grave.
All that said, I do like the Rangers’ chances in Game 7. They can ride Wilson, Adams, and Felix in relief as long as they need to. I don’t see a threesome close to that in the Cardinals bullpen.
I’m tired of seeing Carp yelling all the time. I hope he’s gone by the 2nd inning.
Five combined errors, a number of head-scratching managerial moves, several late momentum swings with the season on the line and an exclamation point in the form of a walk-off…. this is what makes baseball great!
too bad dave cameron still hating on delmon young in the ALCS.
Delmon Young sucks. A good 10 day run doesn’t change that.
I like this meme even better than the #6org meme
Hey Dave,
Is there any way you can create a volatility index for WPA and then rank the most volatile world series games of all time? I know it can be done and I’d do it myself if I had all the WPA data readily available.
It would be great to see where this game ranked. Depending on how volatility is calculated and whether or not you exclude truly out of hand games (say 5+ run deficits), this could definitely be up there. Certainly remarkable from the 8th inning on. I was just remarking to a friend how many “big hits” there seemed to be on both sides.
Hmm, there’s a Jays Phillies game that would rate highly too.
I thought the biggest mistake Washington made was to pinch hit for Feldman. Maybe if there weren’t 2 outs or if he had a runner in scoring position he might roll the dice, but it seems to me that in extra innings the most important concern is to keep the home team from scoring, and that means having your best pitcher available on the mound.
This is not second guessing. My son and I were talking about this before and while the decision was being made and were shocked that he took Feldman out of the game for Lowe.
What a game! What a series! What a season! Wow!!
Actually for about 7 innings I was excited but a bit disappointed because it seemed the game would be remembered more for the errors and gaffes than for great baseball. But then it became something special and the bad baseball was overwhelmed by the great baseball that followed.
Look at the WPA numbers for the game. Two seperate players for the cardinals had .8 or higher. .5 is the amount needed to win the game. Hyperbole doesn’t begin to describe it.
Freese had .905 combined in his last 2 PA … you have to wonder whether anyone has ever topped that.
(In the WS, i.e. — Dwight Evans once had 1.189 (6/23/90), and that’s probably not the record, either.)
Freese had the highest WPA in post-season history (topping Kirk Gibson’s .870).
Berkman had the 6th highest.
In terms of Championship Probability Added, they rank 2nd and 5th all time:
Hal Smith, .636 in 1960 Game 7
Freese, .953 / 2 = .477
Bucky Harris, .458 in 1924 Game 7
Willie Stargell, .411 in 1979 Game 7
Berkman, .817 / 2 = .409
Insane.
Wow! Awesome!
And the others were in game 7′s.
Jack Morris, .845 in 1991 Game 7
Good catch, I’m just doing hitters. After a game like that, you forget that pitchers can be good!
B-ref has now posted their version of WPA (which I’m using, thank you, Play Index) and has Freese at .969 and Berkman at .832. So Berkman ranks 4th, not 6th, among post-season WPA, and 4th, not 5th, in Championship PA.
The most over-managed, the worst managed, World Series I have ever seen! Thank goodness it’s been equally bad by both sides making for one of the best worst World Series I have ever seen.
both managers must’ve got a memo from fox brass instructing them to manufacture some drama. it’s like sidney lumet wrote the script with ron washington as howard beale.
Every Red Sox fan is wondering if the Rangers are the ’86 Sox, or the Cardinals are the ’75 Sox.
How preposterous is it that of the 11 seventh games since 1975, 6 have been preceded by famous game sixes? Three of which were won by extra-inning walk-off homers?
Neither team is the Sox.
One team is the Rangers, and the other team is the Cardinals. The year is currently 2011.
Thanks.
Of course neither team is the Sox. But one of the things that makes baseball great is that any seemingly unique game often has eerie historical precedent.
The comp to Kirby Puckett was pointed out by Buck and someone here already pointed out Angels / Giants (without having some asshole complain). This is the other pair of examples.
This is EXACTLY why I hate the Red Sox and their fans. I’m pretty sure the baseball world does NOT revolve around the goddamn BoSox. My friends who are Sox fans simply told me last night, “Wow, what a great game.”
I don’t compare every World Series to a Cardinals run at the title. Why can’t this be a great Series in its own right? Insufferable. Ugh.
Exciting game? Yes.
Good game? Not so much. 12 walks, 5 errors – not counting Nelson Cruz drifting back on a ball he should have caught to end the game.
A bad game can be exciting but I kind of expect higher quality play from the two best teams in the league.
The Cards aren’t the best team in the NL. They’re just playing the best right now.
It would be hard for them to not be the NL team that is playing the best right now since they are the only one still playing.
Considering their current roster, post-trades, they may very well be the best team in the NL.
I’d quantify it by showing how they have added upgrades, either via trades or chaining, at SS, CF, SP, bullpen.
Seriously, this current team is 10-15 WAR better than the pre-trade team.
The big differences are Jay/Craig instead of Rasmus, Furcal instead of Theriot, Jackson instead of McClellan as SP, 2 guys that have been awesome in the BP (Dotel and Scrabble replacing Miller and Franklin), Motte as closer.
Look at the data, not your impressions or gut feelings.
Can anyone figure out why the Cards’ win probability went down when Berkman took 2nd on defensive indifference in the 10th? Pujols was on 3rd and Berkman on first w/ 2 outs and Berkman took 2nd. The Cards win probability actually went down slightly. Why?
I believe (and don’t hold me to this) but WPA assumes that with a runner on first, the first baseman will hold him on. By taking second, Pujols could then reposition himself more optimally and get more balls in play. In practice, I think that for defensive indifference Pujols would have positioned himself as if there were no runner anyway, so it wouldn’t have made a difference.
Basically, if the defense is playing properly, taking second made no difference. If they were playing improperly when Berkman was on first (i.e. holding him on) he should have stayed on first to keep them playing “wrong”.
I love game theory.
I figure that, for whatever reason, more teams have won w/ 1st and 3rd in that situation than 2nd and 3rd, which I suppose might make sense since the runner on 1st/2nd is meaningless. Its just noise.
Hey Dave – where’d you get my EKG from last night??
Was there a reason Feliz did not come back to pitch the 10th ?
I think the theory was that they didn’t want to blow him for multiple innings in case they’ll need him tonight.
He has a history of really struggling when his workload gets too high.
Bob, you can blow me for multiple innings anytime.
GENE! AHHHHHHH!!!! HE DID IT AGAIN!
Fox did a pretty good job of showing the anguish on the Cardinal fans faces as well as showing Nolan Ryan’s reactions. I feel for the Rangers fans, and can only hope that today’s game is a exciting!!
Saw this t-shirt the other day:
Save the Earth — It’s the only planet that plays baseball.
I don’t understand… the game was about to end. Why didn’t the Rangers just dribble it out? Or take a knee? Or dump the puck?
I love baseball.
That was amazing, but dear lord did Ron Washington have a terrible game. Classic over-managing. Even La Russa is dumbfounded. Let your players play.
I give props to the players, talk about never giving up.
More amazing WPA facts:
Highest WPA by pair of opponents (based on minimum of the two) had been Steve Garvey (.854) and Jody Davis (.527), Padres and Cubs, NLCS 4, 10/6/84. Freese (.969) and Hamilton (.549) topped that.
Highest WPA by pair of teammates had been Mookie Wilson (.580) and Kevin Mitchell (.456) in 1986 WS Game 6. Freese and Berkman (.832) annihilated that.