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Bernie Williams, Post Season and the Hall of Fame

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On January 7, 2012 @ 9:00 am In Daily Graphings,Outside the Box,Research,Yankees | 77 Comments

The Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will release its list of  soon-to-be inductees on Monday. Some discussion has focused on Bernie Williams and how much his postseason performance should count towards his hall candidacy. I’ll look at a simple way to add postseason plate-appearances into a player’s career WAR.

Of all the candidates eligible for the hall of fame in 2012, Williams had the most postseason plate appearances — and by a large margin. He had 545 of them, which is more than twice as many as any other hall-eligible player. Javy Lopez is second with 225, and Fred McGriff comes in at 218. Impressively, 141 of Williams’ 545 plate appearances came during the World Series. For reference, Williams’ World Series total is nearly three times as many as  Mark McGwire, who had 53.

The extra PAs should lend some extra weight when determining if Williams gets into the hall of fame — especially when you consider that his postseason plate appearances amount to nearly an entire additional season.

To get a weighting of postseason games, I calculated all the hitters’ lifetime WAR, per 650 PA. It would have been too complicated to figure out the postseason stats, adjust them for the difficulty of the postseason play and then determine a true WAR. By using this simple method, I assumed that a player’s postseason production would be reasonably close to what they accomplished during the regular season. Williams’ production was actually very similar in that he had a regular season triple-slash of .297/.381/.477 and postseason triple-slash of .275/.371/.480.

With the WAR/650 calculated, I multiplied it times the hitter’s post season PAs. Since the postseason PAs are more important than the ones during the regular season, I added a weighting to those plate appearances. I doubled the WAR for all postseason games, and I also created another value that gave World Series games a weight of four times a regular season game. Other postseason games got a two-times weighting. Here are the results:

Name WAR WAR/650 1x 1x Total 2 times 2x Total 2x & 4x 2x & 4x total PS PA WS
Jeff Bagwell 83.9 5.8 1.1 85.0 2.3 86.2 2.5 86.4 129 10
Rafael Palmeiro 74.3 4.0 0.6 74.9 1.1 75.4 1.1 75.4 91 0
Larry Walker 73.2 5.9 1.1 74.3 2.2 75.4 2.5 75.7 121 17
Tim Raines 70.9 4.4 1.0 71.9 1.9 72.8 2.2 73.1 142 16
Barry Larkin 70.6 5.1 0.6 71.2 1.2 71.8 1.5 72.1 78 17
Mark McGwire 70.6 6.0 1.4 72.0 2.8 73.4 3.8 74.4 151 53
Edgar Martinez 69.9 5.2 1.2 71.1 2.4 72.3 2.4 72.3 148 0
Alan Trammell 69.5 4.8 0.4 69.9 0.9 70.4 1.1 70.6 58 18
Fred McGriff 61.0 3.9 1.3 62.3 2.6 63.6 3.2 64.2 218 52
Bernie Williams 47.5 3.4 2.9 50.4 5.7 53.2 7.2 54.7 545 141
Dale Murphy 47.3 3.4 0.1 47.4 0.1 47.4 0.1 47.4 11 0
Don Mattingly 45.8 3.9 0.1 45.9 0.3 46.1 0.3 46.1 25 0
Juan Gonzalez 38.6 3.5 0.4 39.0 0.7 39.3 0.7 39.3 66 0
Tim Salmon 36.7 3.4 0.4 37.1 0.7 37.4 1.0 37.7 68 31
Brian Jordan 33.8 3.9 0.9 34.7 1.8 35.6 2.0 35.8 154 17
Javy Lopez 33.6 3.8 1.3 34.9 2.6 36.2 3.1 36.7 225 44
Jeromy Burnitz 27.9 2.8 0.0 27.9 0.0 27.9 0.0 27.9 0 0
Bill Mueller 25.6 3.4 0.8 26.4 1.7 27.3 1.9 27.5 160 18
Eric Young 23.5 2.2 0.1 23.6 0.2 23.7 0.2 23.7 24 0
Vinny Castilla 23.0 2.0 0.2 23.2 0.4 23.4 0.4 23.4 66 0
Ruben Sierra 18.0 1.3 0.2 18.2 0.4 18.4 0.5 18.5 105 5
Phil Nevin 17.4 2.4 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4 3 0
Tony Womack 4.3 0.5 0.1 4.4 0.3 4.6 0.3 4.6 167 47

Initially, Williams was 10th overall in WAR among hitters. He’s grouped closely with Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. And they’re behind Fred McGriff by more than 12 WAR.

Williams had the most postseason WAR of any player. Mark McGwire was next with about half of Williams’ WAR production. McGwire made up some ground on all the games Williams played by having a higher career WAR/650 (6.0 vs. 3.4). After adding a weighted amount of postseason WAR to Williams’ career total, it still wasn’t enough to get his WAR value into the hall of fame.

Certainly, Williams had an impressive career. But even with all those postseason appearances, his career falls short of getting his name enshrined in Cooperstown.


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