Bill James Projections – Updated

I thought I’d mention that the Bill James Handbook projections on FanGraphs have been updated with the latest and greatest.

“… many things happen during the offseason that change playing time for the coming season. That’s why we produce The Bill James Handbook: Projections Update with cutting-edge projections reflecting changes through the last couple days of February.

We adjust projections for many reasons, including:

-Playing time adjustments
-Free agent signings (including four Japanese rookies)
-Ballpark changes”

I think FanGraphs has three of the four rookies in the database now with the exception of Daisuke Matsuzaka. He’ll show up next time he makes a spring training start. For those who can’t wait, the Bill James Handbook has him at 19-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 190 innings.

As always, if you’d like to dice, slice, and sort the Bill James Handbook projections to your heart’s content, you’ll have to purchase them here.

While we’re on the topic of projections, I’d like to give a quick shout-out to the new Hardball Times 2007 Season Preview. Besides the great commentary on teams from many of your favorite bloggers, it has player projections through 2009. I’m still digging in, but it’s full of fun and useful stuff.

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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

2 Responses to “Bill James Projections – Updated”

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  1. Michael says:

    Is that a data problem with the projection for Matsuzaka? It seems unlikely that they actually intended to project a 19-2 Win-Loss record.

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  2. Heh, yeah…. 19-2 does seem pretty lofty. If you look at just innings/ERA:

    Bill James Handbook (BIS) : 190/3.13
    CHONE: 187/3.27
    ZiPS: 186/3.44

    … the Handbook’s projections seem reasonably in-line with the others.

    I think the most wins the Handbook projects for a pitcher besides Matsuzaka is Santana at 18-8.

    Oddly enough, only one pitcher has ever won 19 (or more) games with only 2 losses: Greg Maddux in 1995. Randy Johnson came close when he went 18-2 in 1995 and Roy Face was 18-1 way back in 1959.

    So umm…. if it’s intended, it’s pretty out there. Maybe they’re just having a bit of fun with all the Matsuzaka mania. ;)

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