Braves Go Dempster Diving to Improve Rotation
The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Braves, but they instead opened today with just one qualified starter with a sub-4.40 ERA. Ben Sheets has provided a lift two starts into his comeback and Tim Hudson has been his typically reliable self, but Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Jair Jurrjens have struggled to varying degrees while Brandon Beachy blew out his elbow. Atlanta remains right in the thick of the playoff hunt despite ranking middle of the pack in rotation ERA and FIP (both 4.04).
In an effort to shore up the staff, the Braves acquired Ryan Dempster from the Cubs this afternoon. It’s unclear what they gave up as of this writing, though Delgado has been rumored. Dave O’Brien, Jon Heyman, and Mark Bowman all deserve some credit in breaking the news. The veteran right-hander has ten-and-five no-trade protected but waived it to join Atlanta. He reportedly did not demand any kind of extension or other compensation to approve the trade, so he gets brownie points for that.
Dempster, 35, recently missed some time with a lat strain but otherwise is in the middle of his best season as a full-time starter. His 2.11 ERA is backed by an sky-high 83.9% strand rate, something that may be more sustainable than you think. Dempster’s become more of a fly ball pitcher at this point of his career (42.2% grounders this year) and Atlanta has a big home ballpark with a dynamite defensive outfield led by Michael Bourn in center. Maybe 83.9% won’t last forever, but a regression to the 72.6% league average is not a foregone conclusion.
Those fly balls and outfield defense should also go a long way towards keeping Dempster’s BABIP down. He’s working on a career-low .245 mark right now (.301 career) and while that probably won’t last all season, regressing all the way back to the .293 league average is again no sure thing. It’s tough to overstate how favorable the switch is for Dempster — he’s going from a hitter friendly park where Alfonso Soriano and Bryan LaHair roam the corners to a pitcher’s park with three good-to-great defensive outfielders.
There are still some concerns of course. Dempster’s career-low strikeout rate (7.07 K/9 and 19.5 K%) has been trending in the wrong direction basically since April…
His swinging strike rate (9.3%) is identical to last year and in line with 2010, so he’s still missing bats. It’s worth noting that based on the PITCHf/x data, Dempster is throwing considerably more sliders and splitters this year than the last few seasons. Matt Garza showed a similar adjustment following the trade to Chicago last year, so maybe it’s a pitching coach thing. Either way, the drastic decline in strikeouts — he was over 8.5 K/9 and 21.5 K% in each of the last two seasons — is a red flag.
We don’t know what the Braves are sending the Cubs just yet, but acquiring Dempster drastically improves Atlanta’s chances of winning this season assuming prospects and not big league pieces went the other way. They got a reliable innings eater who, even if his performance down the stretch isn’t as impressive as the first half, will be an upgrade over three current starters. It could be as much as a three-win improvement, though two seems more likely. Dempster gets to join a contender and stay in the National League, the best case scenario for a veteran who (probably) wants to win and land a nice multi-year deal this winter.
* Sorry, couldn’t pass up the obvious headline pun.
I think he’ll fit well in Atlanta with a much better defensive outfield and hopefully that Atlanta humidity keeps his fly balls in the park. But they gave up a cost controlled, young pitcher for a guy in his walk year…
Humidity actually increases the flight length of the ball. Hence the old Atlanta launching pad.
but it makes the baseballs less hard and golfball like
^ Thats also true. Good point.
the ole launch pad was a result of Atlanta being the highest altitude park before Coors came along.. well, not THE result of, but it sure didn’t hurt (as pre humidor coors showed us).
Agreed. Delgado hasn’t been great, but he’s held his own at 22. The Braves feel good about retaining Dempster after this year, but it’s seemed like it’s a foregone conclusion that Dempster will head back to Chicago, which would obviously now come with no compensation for Atlanta.
Neat.
Is there a Jarrod Washburn floor here, or is that out of the question even as a worst-case scenario?
Return is Delgado, according to Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. Nice coup for the Cubs.
you think so? i figured they couldve done better than just delgado. its not like they werent shopping dempster around to other teams. i find the return pretty underwhelming
agreed. Even LA Dodgers could cough up more.
Not sure if serious…You really think they’re going to land an elite prospect (basically top 30 to be significantly more valuable than Delgado), for a 2 month rental?
The Dodgers had 0 prospects that ranked as highly on BA’s midseason list as Delgado did on their preseason list.
You don’t think getting a 22 year old pitcher who has held his own at the major league level for a 36 year old rental pitcher is enough? Cubs fans should be dancing in the streets if this trade goes through.
Red Sox fans everywhere breathe a huge sigh of relief. No Dumpster in the AL East!
Germano moving into Cubs rotation?
Possibly. Or Delgado. Or Volstad. Or Wells.
Wells is on the DL at Iowa.
Initial reaction: Delgado strikes me as an incredible overpay by the Braves for two months of Dempster.
Agreed. Plus, the difference between Delgado’s and Dempster’s Fangraphs WAR so far this year has been 1.3… not exactly a “three-win improvement” unless Dempster ends up starting the wild-card playoff.
Well, he did say that 2 was more likely, and 1.3 wins so far projected across the rest of the season comes out to around 2 wins.
If Dempster replaces the god-awful Jurrjens it might be a 3 win improvement.
But that’s because Dempster spent time on the DL, rate-wise, he’s been much better.
Plus, WAR is an average — the shorter the sample, the more likely there is of a wide variance (percentage-wise). He could be worth 0 wins or 4 wins and put up 2 WAR
I mean, it’s probably not quite Kazmir-for-Zambrano or Smoltz-for-Alexander bad, but it’s an overpay.
Supposedly the Braves are close to sending Garza to the Dodgers for Zach Lee.
I’m impressed, Epstein.
Horrible, horrible, horrible overpay by the Braves if Randall Delgado is indeed the guy being traded. I hope Dempster says “no” to waiving his no trade clause so that it gets the Braves off the hook for this ridiculous trade.
as a braves fan, i do no like this trade at all. Way too much to give up for a pitcher not much better.
Have you looked at their numbers?
Have you?
Zips has Dumpster as half a run better RoS.
MLBTR reports that Dempster tweeted that he has not been made aware of this trade, which is major considering he has a NTC.
Dear Ryan Dempster,
Please do not waive your NTC.
Sincerely,
Devoted Braves Fan
Would be a serious overpay by Atlanta, for a pitcher that is a 3.80 xFIP true talent, entering free agency next year. I really wonder if this happens in Delagdo/Teheran/Medlan had made 5 starts since the break instead of Jurrjens – I think it probably doesn’t.
Look at it this way, 12 months ago Dempster was in the midst of a season with a 4.80 ERA (basically the same xFIP as this year), and Delgado was considered so untouchable that the Braves wouldn’t trade him for 1.4 seasons of Michael Bourn. Do the Braves really think Dempster is that much better now at age 35 then he was then? Or have they lost faith in the 22 year old? Or are they just really desperate right now?
Is the trade final? or is all this speculation? Cant find a confirmation of it at other sites, including MLB.com (at this time).
Word is that Dempster is holding it up in hopes of going to the LAD instead. I guess the Braves were initially on his list of approved destinations, so both teams thought it would be a formality, but now Dempster wants to wait and see if the Dodgers can make a comparable offer to the Cubs.
Apparently the Braves want to lock Dempster up long-term and he wants to hit free agency. He also doesn’t want to go to a team that doesn’t have spring training in Arizona. The Braves are pretty canny in evaluating their internal options and I trust them if they are willing to trade Delgado.
exactly. when’s the last time anyone heard from beau jones? suck it, rangers!
Harrison, Matt? Andrus, Elvis? Wainwright, Adam? Saltalamacchia, Jarrod? Hoover, J.J.?
Really? You missed sarcasm that obvious?
> It could be as much as a three-win improvement, though two seems more likely
Over Delgado? In 2 1/2 months? I don’t think so Tim.
He’s only 1.3 wins better right now and that’s with him pitching out of his mind the first half.
Very interesting read, but is there research that shows that such a pitcher with that type of splits will do well with Atlanta? How does the Atlanta rotation’s strand rate compares with other teams? How do they look like when you split the ground-ball pitchers from the fly-ball pitchers in the Atlanta pitching staff? Is there historic evidence of this big park effect? For example, people talked forever about how SF’s AT&T Park was a pitcher’s park when for a good number of years, especially after Bond left, there was no such effect, the run scoring environment was very neutral, until it reared it’s ugly head again in recent years, and AT&T has been pitching oriented once again.
Coming into the year, I figured Hanson would be their best pitcher. Amazing how far he’s fallen, as he doesn’t even get a mention in the article.
He was looking solid until his last two starts (9.1 IP, 14 ER, 10 K, 6 BB, 3 HR)
The Braves should have moved on Greinke. He’s got the better track record and he’s much more suitable for a long-term contract.
I agree. I wouldn’t mind giving up one of the Minor, Teheran, Delgado in a Greinke trade. The Braves are out of their minds if they want to trade Delgado for Dempster AND compound that mistake by signing Dempster long term. They finally get rid of the Lowe contract this year. Didn’t Wren learn that signing old pitchers coming off of big seasons isn’t a good deal.
What the Braves need to do is kick Jurrjens to the curb and call up Delgado for the rest of the season.
“One of” those three, sure, but the Brewers are starting with Teheran plus Delgado or Minor. They just don’t seem to have much concept of what two months of a starting pitcher is worth, or maybe they just really don’t want to deal him.
” he’s going from a hitter friendly park where Alfonso Soriano and Bryan LaHair roam the corners to a pitcher’s park with three good-to-great defensive outfielders.”
Why does Fangraphs continually shit on Soriano? I swear that Fangraphs is worse than the media when it comes to conclusions. Why don’t you use your own stats and tell me what kind of defender he is? Oh yeah that’s right, that goes against the narrative you are trying to draw. Next time use facts. The facts are that Soriano is one of the elite defenders in baseball, probably the best LF. You want to guess who is in the top 5 of UZR this year? That’s right, its the whipping boy Soriano.
Do you want to guess the man who had the highest UZR season regardless of position in UZR history? That’s right, it was Soriano, not Andruw Jones or Ichiro
Do you want to which guy leads in UZR since 2006 for all positions? that’s right its Soriano.
But I guess you will ignore this post because it goes against your Joe Morgan-sized pea brain analysis. Funny how Fangraphs talks about the Ichiro deal and mentions he is a great defender, but continue to shit on a defender who is statistically better.
it’s their eye test… he has plus range, plus arm, and gets good reads off the bat – but he just looks ugly doing it.