Bryce Harper, Opening Day Starter?

On Tuesday, Jon Heyman reported that Davey Johnson really wants Bryce Harper to begin the season as his everyday right fielder. While we don’t have a direct quote from Johnson confirming the story, given the fact that the alternative is some combination of Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, and Xavier Paul, it’s understandable that Johnson would prefer the uber-talented Harper in his quest to win games.

Managers always want to put the best players on the field that they can. Their job is to maximize performance in the short term, and given the choice between a raw potential superstar or a mediocre role player with limited upside, they’re going to take the kid nearly every time. However, this is also why managers aren’t allowed to make these calls, and Bryce Harper’s opening day assignment will be decided by the team’s front office.

For the Nationals, this should be a pretty easy call. The 19-year-old Harper looks to be a special talent, but even the very best 19-year-olds are generally not great Major League players. In the history of the sport, 16 guys have gotten 100 or more plate appearances in the Majors at age 19 or younger and been above average Major League hitters – the list includes Ty Cobb (134 wRC+), Mickey Mantle (114 wRC+), and Ken Griffey Jr (106 wRC+). If we assume that Harper is that kind of talent, maybe we could pencil him in for a 110 wRC+ or so this season. If he’s more like previous elite teenage prospects B.J. Upton (93 wRC+), Robin Yount (90 wRC+), or Mike Trout (88 wRC+), he’ll likely face his share of struggles and contribute minimal value to the team.

The Nationals simply should not trade team control of Harper’s age-25 season in exchange for getting a few hundred additional at-bats from him this year. The marginal value of having him on the roster from day one is massively outweighed by keeping him from hitting free agency after the 2017 season. Johnson may want Harper, but he shouldn’t get him until June at the earliest.




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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


71 Responses to “Bryce Harper, Opening Day Starter?”

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  1. Marty says:

    Last sentence of first paragraph supposed to be “quest to win games” instead of “question to win games?”

    Although I kind of like the way it sounds the way it is. Kind of has a Cistulli-esque ring to it.

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    • walt526 says:

      No, Dave’s right. It’s the Expos/Nationals. Whether they actually want to win games is very much an open question.

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      • Youppi says:

        It’s only technically the Expos & regrettably so. To any fans of Montreal/Canadian baseball/baseball history/(even) Toronto, the Nationals are discernibly not the Expos.

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  2. Aaron (UK) says:

    Stupid rule, isn’t it? What chance the Nationals can (profitably) sign him to a new contract given his eagerness to debut?

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    • JimNYC says:

      I actually see this as kind of a win-win for the Nationals. If he shows up and bombs, they can sign him to a Matt-Moore level deal extending a year or two into free agency and not really have any downside anyway. If he shows up and rakes (comparatively speaking; he’s not going to be putting up .300/.400/.500 numbers no matter how good he is), then they can sign him to a similar deal with a higher AAV and still get one or two free agency years on the cheap — and he’s fine with it either way, since he’ll still be hitting free agency at age 25 or 26.

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      • todmod says:

        You might want to double check Bryce Harper’s agent before assuming that he’ll sign an early deal buying out free agent years.

        Scott Boras signs pre-free agent deals very, very rarely. And when he does, it falls more in the Carlos Gonzalez range where it’s not some big discount.

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      • Tommy says:

        Also, I get the impression that he knows how good he is, and he said that thing in SI about being on the Yankees someday. Given this and his questionable attitude (I like him and even I know this is true), I don’t see him signing any long-term contracts before FA, let alone a Longo-esque one.

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  3. hernandez17 says:

    I trust Davey’s ability to adjudicate the difference between a 19-year-old Mantle and a 19-year-old B.J. Upton. His job is to put his best lineup on the field. The GM may be thinking about six years from now, but Davey doesn’t need to. He isn’t even likely to be their manager in six years. If Harper tears up spring training then his age-25 season isn’t sufficient justification to keep him down imo.

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    • EarlSweatshirt says:

      Yes it is. When Harper leaves as a 24 yo FA, don’t complain about his mediocre rookie season.

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    • KG says:

      Yes, there is. He’s had 1 full season of pro ball, and is a teenager. ST stats are basically meaningless. Plenty of justification

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    • Stan Gable says:

      I’m with you. If Bryce Harper forces the issue whilst being given an earnest opportunity in Florida this Spring, he should be the RF if deemed by the organization to be reasonably ready. Worrying about six years from now seems overly cautious.

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      • Ronin says:

        As Barry Bonds once said and I paraphrase: “Thats all in the future, i could get hit by a bus tomorrow.” I think teams are way too worried about the far future, and should focus more on winning in 3 year cycles. Any number of things could happen to Harper or the Nationals in those 6 years, if you have even an outisde chance of competing this year and Harper adds to that equation than go for it. What are you gonna tell the fans? We want to make sure we are ready to compete in 2019!

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    • chuckb says:

      This is why the GM is the boss. It’s his job to think not just about this year, but about the team’s future as well. If Rizzo doesn’t have the stones to keep Harper down for the first 2-3 months, the owner should step in. This is a multi-million dollar decision the owners stand to benefit from. To throw it away just to suit Davey Johnson would be absurd.

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  4. Nick V says:

    Couldn’t agree more. In fact, I don’t think he should get significant time in the big leagues in 2013 unless he absolutely dominates AA/AAA this year (by dominate, I mean a .300/.400/.500 type line with good reports). And in whichever season they decide he’s ready for primetime, they should absolutely wait for the super-two deadline.

    Age 26-27 seasons are invariably going to be better than age 19-21 seasons, and no responsible GM should ignore that fact.

    Everything changes, though, if the Nats do what they should truly do – make like the Rays sign him up to a long term, team friendly deal like yesterday…

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    • Will says:

      Yes Scott Boras just loves those team friendly deals

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    • Marty says:

      Gotta agree here. There’s no reason to risk his development right now. They still have Strasburg to fill the seats, and the NL East is pretty crowded right now. In a few years, the Phillies will and Marlins will be getting older and the Nationals will have their crack at the division.

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      • baty says:

        @ Nick V

        In terms of risking development, is there anything to be said about making sure that Bryce continues to face worthy competition?

        He can clearly benefit from a MILB start to this season, but beyond that, I don’t know that it would make any sense to even consider a path where you forcefully stunt the arbitration process in the hope of trying to reach further into a player’s (26-27yrs) prime. You can’t put him in holding for 2-3 years, if he ends up showing that his ability is beyond that level of competition.

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      • Nick V says:

        @baty – yeah, I mean, if he forces his way onto the major league roster by showing that AA/AAA pitching is no match for him, that’s a fantastic outcome for the Nationals. At that point, you’d know for sure that he’s ready (as opposed to now, where he definitely looks like he could stand some more time in the upper minors) and you’re not wasting his development in the big leagues.

        @Will – I imagine that even Boras would jump at a long term, major league deal for a guy who has 37 games above A ball.

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      • Antonio Bananas says:

        In a few years? The Phillies are old NOW. The only thing holding them together is the fact that Halladay and Lee are pitching well into their mid 30s.

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  5. Dan says:

    “In the history of the sport, 16 guys have gotten 100 or more plate appearances in the Majors and been above average Major League hitters”

    prior to age 20? Prior to age 20 season?

    Or just in general?

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  6. Baseball Bob says:

    To some degree, it depends on whether or not the Nats can actually contend in 2012. If you look at OF with wRC+ in the 110 range but good fielders from 2011, you get about 4 WAR give or take. Since the guys they have are about 1 WAR guys, you are giving up 1.5 to keep Harper down for half a year, 3 for the whole year. If those 3 wins are the difference between postseason and not, he should play this year, and if the 1.5 wins are the difference, he should play from the start. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look, at least to me, like the Nats, despite a good off-season, are that close, so it makes sense from a team perspective to keep him in AAA for at least half the year, if not all season.

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    • Aaron (UK) says:

      Bringing him up in June gives you the extra 2 (say) WAR for the first half of next season too, when the Nats will probably be even closer to postseason contention. [Otherwise the same logic will apply then, and you'd probably keep him down again].

      They’ve got a reasonable shot this year too – don’t forget the second wildcard. A June call-up looks long odds-on to me.

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    • Dave Cameron says:

      No 19-year-old in the history of the sport has been a +4 win player. If you love Harper, maybe he’s a +2 win guy. If you think he’s an inner circle HOFer, you can max out at +3 wins (especially if you choose to ignore guys like A-Rod who suggest even that’s wildly optimistic). Anything beyond that is essentially unsupportable by fact.

      Keeping him down until the super-two deadline has passed will cost you roughly 200 plate appearances, so really, we’re talking 1/3 of the season. The difference even between a +3 WAR guy and a +1 WAR guy over 200 PA is half a win, max. And that’s with the craziest projection of his performance possible.

      In reality, Harper provides very little marginal value over Bernadina/Cameron in April and May.

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      • hernandez17 says:

        That’s true I hadn’t thought of it that way. I was thinking he would have to stay down for half a season, but if we’re only talking April/May, then absolutely it makes sense to keep him down until then if not longer. The idea of keeping him down all year if he’s raking and the team is contending is nuts though. That division is winable for Washington. You win games by playing your organization’s best players.

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      • Youppi says:

        Ooh, I disagree here. You’re excessively relying on a flawed stat if you believe that as I’m sure just about any prospecter would tell you.

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      • philosofool says:

        False. Mel Ott was 4.6 WAR.

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  7. adohaj says:

    Call him up in September

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  8. tommybones says:

    God, I hope Harper plays from day one… means he’ll be a Yankee a full year earlier!

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  9. Chris Needham says:

    If they call him up at the end of September, thereby giving them an additional year of control, he’d be eligible for a Super 2 starting in 2015, which supposes that he sticks without demotion.

    However, the major-league contract he signed, he has a salary for 2015 already on the books, about $900,000, I think. Wouldn’t that supersede the Super 2 salary he could get that year?

    If that’s the case, then there’s no reason to not call him up at the end of April, if Davey really thinks he’s ready, as there wouldn’t be any Super 2 concerns, and his FA would have already been extended that additional year by the delay in calling him up this season.

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    • RobBob says:

      This is correct, as far as I know. They really need only wait to the end of April to secure control for 2018.

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    • Dave Cameron says:

      Those draft contracts almost always include provisions that allow a player to opt-out of the deal if he’s arbitration eligible. Rick Porcello just did that this winter, for instance.

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      • Richie says:

        So you’re saying the Nats do have to wait till June, unless we find out there’s no opt-out?

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      • Chris Needham says:

        Which is fine. And it’s reasonable to expect that Boras would include that. He’s not a dumb man. But unless we know, it makes evaluating the decision a little more difficult.

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  10. jimjones1968 says:

    Don’t forget the $$$ factor folks. Super Two or not, how much money will the Nationals make this year if he starts day 1, vs. June?

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    • Antonio Bananas says:

      Probably not much. There is going to be an attendance boost at the beginning of the year because of all the signings and hype, etc. Adding harper from the beginning won’t add much. Adding him in June when the season is starting to drag is a shot in the arm. Really, if anything, calling him up in June makes more financial sense.

      If you think of it like marketing, all these new players are like promotions. “Buy 1 ticket, get a free Edwin Jackson” “come see the amazing Gio Gonzalez with every drink” “returning to Washington, Stephen Strasberg”. Adding Harper is sort of like putting all your eggs in one basket. you want your “sales” to be spread out so there is consistent interest.

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    • philosofool says:

      If you are a serious contender in season n, it’s worth a few million dollars in season n+3 to bit the bullet and play the guy, *if* he can help you make the playoffs.

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  11. delv says:

    SSS and all, but his unimpressive showing at AA bears at least a mention.

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    • TDW says:

      Not really any more than Stanton’s did when he was a full year older, Harper struggled his first month in AA(maintained a 9% BB% rate) then beat up AA pitching and the AFL from there on out.

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    • Larry Bernandez says:

      I wish all my unimpressive showings were still above average. The fact that a wRC+ of 103 is unimpressive sort of speaks to just how high his ceiling is, and thusly, why you keep him down another year, after which he can mash AAA pitching hopefully.

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    • philosofool says:

      Yeah. Youngest player in AA and he’s only a league average hitter.

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      • chuckb says:

        Isn’t that the point, though? He’d be the youngest player in the big leagues as well and if he’s “only” a league average hitter, there’s not really much point in calling him up before June.

        He’d have to be really special immediately in order to justify that.

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  12. RobBob says:

    If Harper plays much this year, it *should* help him actually contribute to the 2013 Nats, when they should be right in the thick of things. It’s not about his 2012 contribution to the ML team, it’s about his career progression, which IMO will be aided by playing at the ML level rather than AA/AAA.

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  13. Danya says:

    “given the choice between a raw potential superstar or a mediocre role player with limited upside, they’re going to take the kid nearly every time.” Allow me to introduce Mr. Bruce Bochy…

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    • Tom says:

      I actually disagree with the assertion that managers go with raw potential superstars every time. Charlie Manuel certainly didn’t do that last year with Domonic Brown. As Dave said, a manager’s focus is on winning now and hence they make the decision on whom to play based on who is playing best right now.

      In addition, in most cases a manager will perceive an “established veteran” as giving the team a better chance to win, even if that is not factually the case. Playing a less-risky veteran opens them up to less second-guessing later.

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    • Tom says:

      Sorry – to be clear I am agreeing with Danya.

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  14. Ivdown says:

    Is it just me or shouldn’t we wait until he can slug over .450 in AA before he makes the majors?

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  15. TK says:

    It really takes a specific series of events for starting a guy opening day to be a good idea (think Jason Heyward and his 4.7 WAR on a team that made the playoffs by 1 win) in retrospect. The Nats should start Harper in AA and make him dominate each level before bringing him up. They should hope this happens by middle of June, but mid-April of 2013 would have its advantages (super 2, but still not a FA until after 2019. Those 180 (baseball) days would be the difference between having Harper for age 26-27 or having him for age 19. If the Nats were in position to compete, I’d say bring him up April 20th (or whenever the cutoff is)

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  16. Jim Lahey says:

    One other mention, more of a floor to speak of, Justin Upton produced a 55 wRC+ in 152 PAs as a 19 year old.

    I think everyone single one of you who says “sign him to a Rays type team friendly deal that gets 1 or 2 FA years” are out of you’re f’ing mind.

    Harper is represented regarded as a generational talent, is represented by Scott Boras, and he’s already got enough $$bank from the rookie contract to be set for life. Something about that tells me he won’t be signing a team friendly contract.

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    • Nick V says:

      I think it’s a lot easier to reject a long term, 8 digit deal when you’re commenting on a message board than it is when you’re a 19 year old who’d become a free agent again right in the middle of his prime were he to sign it. I think it’d take more than what Longoria or Moore got, and perhaps they should wait until he makes it to the bigs to give him his deal, but I definitely think a “team-friendly” deal could be made…

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      • baty says:

        Harper is already guaranteed quite a bit more (per year) than what Longoria and Moore had to their name at those ages. I doubt he’s in any rush unless it’s a substantial commitment.

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    • chuckb says:

      Maybe, but he’s still going to be under team control for 6 years. He could still sign a lucrative contract during that time that is still team friendly, to a degree. It’s not like he can become a free agent during that time anyway.

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  17. baty says:

    @ TK

    Do we really know how good Bryce is though? You can try holding him down until he produces one of those dominating seasons at each of those levels, but who says it’s going to happen?

    So, Montero stayed a full extra season in AAA, and had a disappointing season. he has yet to dominate at that level. Some prospects just don’t work that way… It’s very possible that certain prospects need to continually face stronger competition in order to grow.

    It looks nice on paper to just say that if we hold him down until his age 20, 21 and/or 22 year seasons, he’ll magically begin producing at his previously “expected” talent curve when he arrives… But without the experience he gains from 19 year old and 20 year old MLB seasons, it’s very possible for him to come up and put together a disappointing season. It’s possible for him to put together a few disappointing seasons.

    Couldn’t it also be risky to toy with a prospect for financial gain too?

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  18. Brian says:

    I would be surprised if he starts Day 1 on the MLB roster, if only because they’d probably like to see him do something at the upper two levels of the minors prior to making that move. He only had a .332 wOBA in less than 150 PA, which indicates he logged neither the time nor the showing that would suggest he could make an impact from Day 1.

    That said, it’s not as if this decision about Harper’s progression will be made in a vacuum. Things could break in a direction that leads them to make the move sooner in spite of giving up the rights to his age 25 season. They’ve got a good rotation fronted by Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Gonzalez and a quality bullpen with Clippard, Storen, et al. They’ve also got some quality everyday players in Zimmerman, Morse, Ramos, etc… At the same time, the combination of Cameron & Bernadina could get ugly quickly. If the pitching comes together and the Nats are in 1st by early May in spite of Cameron/Bernadina stinking up the joint and Harper mashes during that month, the Nats would be wise to bring him up even if it means losing control of him for the 2018 season. The goal for all GMs is to get into the playoffs, which gives your team a chance of winning a World Series. I don’t think the GM would mind trading Harper’s 2018 season for a legit opportunity to make the playoffs this year.

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    • RobBob says:

      If they wait until May, they will still have control of him in 2018 (he’ll have less than 6 years ML service time).

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  19. Ronin says:

    I dont know whether Harper is ready to produce at the MLB level or not but if the Nationals think he is better than the alternative then I dont think it will hurt his development any. If Harper is the kind of prospect we have been led to believe he is then perhaps we can compare him to another OF who spent his whole age 19 season in the bigs: Al Kaline. Kaline’s age 19 season wasnt anything special but his age 20 season was remarkable. I dont think it is unreasonable to expect that uber-prospects are gonna take their lumps for a year regardless of what age they debut at, playing Harper everyday this year might be worth it if it means getting star production out of him next year. Still some roster shenanigans (keeping him down fo a month) to ensure an extra year of control are always fun.

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  20. owgreen says:

    One point that’s been alluded to that would be useful if it could be elaborated on is the degree to which a prospect like Harper needs the opportunity to struggle at the MLB level in order to flourish in subsequent years. Would it be possible to see a comparison of 19/20/21 year old debuts, of players who went on to be elite, and the value the contributed over their first 6 years?

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  21. Andrew says:

    Can’t wait for him to sign for 15/450 with the Yankees in 6 years :killmenow:

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  22. Ray says:

    Heyman is regurgitating what the Nationals beat writers, and recently Buster Olney, have been writing all offseason. It makes more sense to bring him up in May/June timeframe for sure.

    But, if he has a good spring, Rizzo will have a hard time sending him down, I imagine.

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  23. Randy says:

    The Nats should be trying to make a move for an outfielder who can potentially give them a half season and also some flexibility. If Harper is hand’s-down the best player in Spring Training, he’ll make the team, but if he just hangs with the others on the team, they should send him back down. Honestly, he should be going to AA, no questions asked. But I think the Nats are in a position where they think they can surprise this year. Unfortunately they still have some questions offensively that need to be addressed. They shouldn’t be risking their season on a rookie, but look to add him at some point during the season to put their team over the top (if they are in that situation).

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  24. tomterp says:

    It’s a bit disappointing that Dave only alluded to the “marginal value of having him on the roster from day one” without offering an estimate of that value. The Nats continue to improve in this offseason and now are potentially in a position to contend for a wild card slot. If Harper could get them another win or two on top of 86 or 88, might that not have a significant marginal value?

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  25. Antonio Bananas says:

    I say you maximize him by calling him up later. Spring training stats are meaningless and he didn’t exactly shred AA. Keep in him AAA until June, then call him up. This makes sense on so many levels. You don’t really lose that much production, and maybe even get more because he’ll be more seasoned and might not shit the bed if he goes into a slump. Second, attendance will be higher in the beginning. the team has excitement. By the middle months, the season starts to drag, promoting Harps could be a great attendance boost. Do it during a middle of the week series against a bad team. You maximize his contract and his production and also get a few more bucks from the attendance boost.

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  26. james wilson says:

    It is as likely as not he will struggle in AAA, and then be brought up late when he figures it out, which generally beats struggling in the show and being sent down. But Mantle had to do it, so what the hey. These FA vesting rules are a crime.

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  27. kid says:

    Dave is right on in saying that almost all players this age – even if they are super phenoms – struggle significantly in the majors, especially if their exposure to pro baseball is limited to something like 300-400 at-bats at or above the AA level. Trout and Justin Upton, probably two of the biggest non-Harper position prospects of the past decade, both flopped in their MLB debuts.

    Spring Training performances mean nothing.

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    • CircleChange11 says:

      That is why I say play him now, let him get that initial struggle period out of the way during a season where a division title is not the expectation. Then year 2, he’s more prepared to perform and lead, and the team’s expectations as a whole will likely be higher.

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      • kid says:

        Most of the recently called up, uber-talented guys who got to have 600 or 700 PAs in AA or AAA (Stanton, Longoria, McCutchen, Cargo) hit the ground running in the bigs. Most of the guys who had 300 or 400 PAs or less – JUpton, Trout, Matt Kemp – struggled after being called up. Jason Heyward (195 PA in AA) had a fine cup of joe, .376 wOBA, and seems to be one of the notable exceptions to the rule.

        Why bring him up if he’s not going to positively contribute? I understand that there is absolutely a mental aspect to the game of baseball, but the data shows that after 600 or 700 PAs or so the guy is both physically and mentally ready to play. No adjustment period required. That, to me, is safer than bringing him up just for adjustments’ sake and risking injury or developmental setbacks.

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  28. kid says:

    A good season at AA will be plenty – most scouts agree that a hitter’s performance at AA, not AAA, is most indicative of their future MLB success.

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  29. philosofool says:

    I think that if the Nats are serious about winning this season, Harper will be in Washington by May 15th. Super two status isn’t worth worrying about when you are contending for the playoffs, and the Nats may be.

    They will be totally justified in sending him to AAA for 100 AB before they bring him up, and they will be totally justified in saying “We’ve seen enough” if he’s raking AAA after that. Sometimes manipulating these rules of service time is just manipulation, but in teh case of a 19 year-old whose never hit AAA, you can say “we thought he was probably ready, but we didn’t want to rush him” and mean it completely.

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  30. CircleChange11 says:

    I think you play him if he’s ready.

    [1] If he plays awesome, great.
    [2] If he struggles, great … you learned something. He can either work on it in AAA or make adjustements during the off-season.
    [3] If this is the guy that you’re planning on building around, let him work out the kinks in a year where you’tre not counting on him leading you to a division title.

    If he plays great and earns more through arbitration, the Nats still win. He likely won’t get paid what he’s worth via arbitration.

    They have Stras and Harper for a limited time. These guys will be [playing in MLB or MiLB and accumulating wear and tear and injury risk at either place. They might as well be providing MLB value.

    I don’t like it when teams plan for future success that may or may not come. They have decent pieces right now. Play him and see how it goes.

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