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Building a Farm: American League East

Posted By Mark Smith On March 19, 2013 @ 8:00 am In Daily Graphings | 9 Comments

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

  • I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
  • I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
  • Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

  • AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
  • RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
  • GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
  • RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
    • Safe – 0 points
    • Low – 1 point
    • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
    • High – 3 points
    • Extreme – 4 points
  • RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
    • Safe – less than 1
    • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
    • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
    • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
    • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Baltimore Orioles

Player Pos AVG RANK GRADE RISK RISK
Dylan Bundy RHP 1.00 1 75.0 1.5 Low
Kevin Gausman RHP 2.00 2 67.5 2.0 Medium
Jonathan Schoop 3B 3.13 3 55.0 2.5 Medium
Nick Delmonico 1B/3B 4.88 4 50.0 3.0 High
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP 5.00 5 50.0 3.0 High
LJ Hoes OF 6.50 6 47.5 1.0 Low
Mike Wright RHP 7.43 7 50.0 2.5 Medium
Branden Kline RHP 7.75 8 50.0 3.0 High
Xavier Avery OF 9.20 9 45.0 2.0 Medium
Adrian Marin SS 9.88 10 50.0 3.0 High
Brady Wager RHP 10.00 11 - - -
Glynn Davis OF 11.00 12 50.0 3.0 High
Josh Hader LHP 12.75 13 47.5 3.0 High
Tim Berry LHP 12.80 14 50.0 3.0 High
Christian Walker 1B 13.00 15 50.0 3.0 High
Robert Bundy RHP 13.00 16 - - -
Steve Johnson RHP 13.50 17 40.0 1.0 Low
Parker Bridwell RHP 14.20 18 50.0 4.0 Extreme
Henry Urrutia OF 14.50 19 45.0 2.0 Medium
Clayton Schrader RHP 15.00 20 45.0 2.0 Medium
Zach Davies RHP 15.40 21 45.0 3.0 High
Devin Jones RHP 17.25 22 50.0 3.0 High
Mike Belfiore LHP 18.00 23 45.0 3.0 High
Roderick Bernadina OF 18.00 24 - - -
Torsten Boss 3B 19.50 25 50.0 3.0 High
Tyler Wilson RHP 20.00 26 40.0 2.0 Medium
Jason Esposito 3B 21.00 27 - - -
Tsuyoshi Wada LHP 21.00 28 45.0 3.0 High
Lex Ruthledge LHP 21.00 29 45.0 3.0 High
Michael Ohlman C 21.67 30 - - -
T.J. McFarland LHP 22.00 31 40.0 2.0 Medium
Dan Klein RHP 22.00 32 - - -
Johnny Ruettiger OF 23.00 33 - - -
Brenden Webb OF 23.50 34 50.0 4.0 Extreme
Ty Kelly UTL 24.50 35 40.0 2.0 Medium
Juan Guzman RHP 25.00 36 - - -
Trent Mummey OF 26.00 37 - - -
Hector Veloz 3B 27.00 38 - - -
Oliver Drake RHP 28.00 39 45.0 3.0 High
Greg Lorenzo OF 29.00 40 45.0 3.0 High
Jaime Esquivel RHP 29.00 41 - - -
Miguel Chalas RHP 30.00 42 - - -
System Grade System Risk 50+ 50+ Grade 50+ Risk 60+ 60+ Grade 60+ Risk
48.583 2.617 15 53.167 2.900 2 71.250 1.750

Without Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, the Orioles would easily have the worst grade among the teams, but those two give the Orioles two front-of-the-rotation pitchers without significant risk. Jonathan Schoop follows those two as a third solid piece, but the rest of the system isn’t well-regarded. Parker Bridwell is a wildcard, going from 6th on one list to 23rd on another.

Boston Red Sox

Player Pos AVG RANK GRADE RISK RISK
Xander Bogaerts SS 1.00 1 70.0 2.5 Medium
Jackie Bradley OF 2.25 2 60.0 2.0 Medium
Matt Barnes RHP 2.88 3 62.5 2.0 Medium
Allen Webster RHP 4.00 4 60.0 2.0 Medium
Henry Owens LHP 6.00 5 57.5 3.0 High
Garin Cecchini 3B 6.13 6 57.5 3.0 High
Blake Swihart C 7.00 7 60.0 3.5 High
Bryce Brentz OF 7.86 8 50.0 2.5 Medium
Jose Iglesias SS 9.00 9 47.5 2.0 Medium
Deven Marrero SS 9.17 10 50.0 2.0 Medium
Drake Britton LHP 11.50 11 55.0 3.0 High
Brandon Workman RHP 11.67 12 50.0 2.0 Medium
Brian Johnson LHP 12.00 13 50.0 2.5 Medium
Brandon Jacobs OF 13.60 14 50.0 3.0 High
Anthony Ranaudo RHP 14.75 15 50.0 3.0 High
Mookie Betts 2B 15.00 16 - - -
Pat Light RHP 16.00 17 50.0 3.0 High
Tzu Wei-Lin SS 16.00 18 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Alex Wilson RHP 16.50 19 45.0 2.0 Medium
Jose Vinicio SS 16.80 20 50.0 3.0 High
Brock Holt 2B 17.50 21 - - -
Christian Vazquez C 17.50 22 50.0 3.0 High
Keury De La Cruz OF 18.25 23 50.0 3.0 High
Ty Buttrey RHP 18.33 24 50.0 3.0 High
Manuel Margot OF 20.00 25 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Cody Kukuk LHP 20.67 26 50.0 3.0 High
Travis Shaw 1B 21.50 27 50.0 3.0 High
Frank Montas RHP 22.00 28 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Sean Coyle 2B 24.00 29 50.0 3.0 High
Simon Mercedes RHP 28.00 30 50.0 3.0 High
Miguel Pena LHP 30.00 31 50.0 3.0 High
System Grade System Risk 50+ 50+ Grade 50+ Risk 60+ 60+ Grade 60+ Risk
53.103 2.828 27 53.611 2.889 5 62.500 2.400

Boston comes in with the 3rd best system grade in the AL, but it does have the 4th highest risk rating as well. The top prospects, however, aren’t high risk, and they have fairly high ceilings. Recent draftee Ty Buttrey got the most varied results, getting a 12th and 26th place ranking.

New York Yankees

Player Pos AVG RANK GRADE RISK RISK
Gary Sanchez C 1.50 1 62.5 3.0 High
Mason Williams OF 1.75 2 62.5 2.5 Medium
Tyler Austin 1B/OF 3.50 3 57.5 2.5 Medium
Slade Heathcott OF 3.50 4 60.0 3.0 High
Jose Campos RHP 7.00 5 57.5 3.5 High
Ty Hensley RHP 7.25 6 57.5 3.0 High
Manny Banuelos LHP 7.71 7 55.0 3.0 High
Angelo Gumbs 2B 7.75 8 57.5 3.0 High
Brett Marshall RHP 9.50 9 50.0 2.0 Medium
Mark Montgomery RHP 9.50 10 55.0 1.5 Low
Zoilo Almonte OF 10.00 11 - - -
Jose A Ramirez RHP 10.14 12 55.0 3.0 High
Rafael DePaula RHP 10.25 13 60.0 4.0 Extreme
Ramon Flores OF 10.75 14 50.0 3.0 High
Nik Turley LHP 12.50 15 50.0 3.0 High
Bryan Mitchell RHP 14.40 16 55.0 4.0 Extreme
JR Murphy C 14.80 17 50.0 3.0 High
Austin Romine C 16.80 18 45.0 2.0 Medium
Austin Aune SS 17.00 19 50.0 3.0 High
Dante Bichette Jr 3B 17.80 20 50.0 3.0 High
David Adams 2B 18.33 21 45.0 2.0 Medium
Corey Black RHP 18.75 22 50.0 3.0 High
Adam Warren RHP 19.33 23 45.0 2.0 Medium
Nick Goody RHP 20.00 24 - - -
Dellin Betances RHP 20.33 25 50.0 3.0 High
Corban Joseph 2B 21.67 26 45.0 2.0 Medium
Melky Mesa OF 22.00 27 45.0 2.0 Medium
Greg Bird 1B/C 22.00 28 50.0 3.0 High
Matt Tracy LHP 24.00 29 50.0 3.0 High
Tom Kahnle RHP 24.50 30 45.0 2.0 Medium
Chase Whitley RHP 25.00 31 - - -
Ravel Santana OF 28.00 32 - - -
Cito Culver SS 28.50 33 45.0 2.0 Medium
Daniel Camarena LHP 30.00 34 - - -
Gabe Encinas RHP 30.00 35 50.0 4.0 Extreme
System Grade System Risk 50+ 50+ Grade 50+ Risk 60+ 60+ Grade 60+ Risk
52.000 2.767 23 54.130 3.000 4 61.250 3.125

Stepbacks and/or injuries to Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances hurt the stocks of two well-known prospects, but Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Slade Heathcott stepped up in their place. Jose Ramirez has gotten some recent publicity, and evaluators had some varying reports, putting him 3rd all the way to 16th.

Tampa Bay Rays

Player Pos AVG RANK GRADE RISK RISK
Wil Myers OF 1.00 1 65.0 1.0 Low
Chris Archer RHP 2.50 2 62.5 2.0 Medium
Taylor Guerrieri RHP 2.75 3 62.5 3.0 High
Jake Odorizzi RHP 4.50 4 55.0 2.0 Medium
Richie Shaffer OF 6.75 5 52.5 3.0 High
Alex Colome RHP 7.25 6 55.0 2.0 Medium
Hak-Ju Lee SS 4.63 7 55.0 2.0 Medium
Enny Romero LHP 8.00 8 55.0 3.0 High
Drew Vettleson OF 9.50 9 52.5 3.0 High
Mikie Mahtook OF 12.14 10 50.0 2.0 Medium
Blake Snell LHP 9.29 11 57.5 3.0 High
Jeff Ames RHP 14.50 12 55.0 3.0 High
Jake Hager SS 13.17 13 50.0 3.0 High
Tyler Goeddel 3B 15.00 14 50.0 3.0 High
Todd Glaesman OF 18.00 15 50.0 3.0 High
Felipe Rivero LHP 14.29 16 55.0 3.0 High
Parker Markel RHP 21.00 17 50.0 3.0 High
Jesse Hahn RHP 15.67 18 55.0 3.0 High
Tim Beckham SS/2B 15.75 19 50.0 2.0 Medium
Ryan Brett 2B 21.33 20 50.0 3.0 High
Mike Montgomery LHP 15.50 21 50.0 3.0 High
Josh Sale OF 17.67 22 50.0 3.0 High
Patrick Leonard 3B 24.67 23 50.0 3.0 High
Andrew Toles OF 19.00 25 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Brandon Martin SS 20.33 26 50.0 3.0 High
Brandon Guyer OF 17.00 27 - - -
Oscar Hernandez C 24.00 28 - - -
Alex Torres LHP 26.00 29 - - -
Robinson Chirinos C 29.00 30 - - -
Ty Morrison OF 29.00 31 45.0 2.0 Medium
Jose Mujica RHP 23.00 32 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Bralin Jackson OF 27.00 33 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Spencer Edwards SS 29.00 34 50.0 3.0 High
Nick Sawyer RHP 30.00 35 50.0 3.0 High
System Grade System Risk 50+ 50+ Grade 50+ Risk 60+ 60+ Grade 60+ Risk
53.250 2.800 29 53.534 2.828 3 63.333 2.000

The Rays beat out the Red Sox for the best system grade along with having a better risk rating, though the Red Sox have more players in the 60+ range. Wil Myers finds himself at the top of the list after being traded as the centerpiece for James Shields and Wade Davis. Mike Montgomery, also in the Shields deal, saw a wide range of rankings as he came in both 8th and 25th.

Toronto Blue Jays

Player Pos AVG RANK GRADE RISK RISK
Aaron Sanchez RHP 1.00 1 65.0 3.0 High
Roberto Osuna RHP 2.25 2 57.5 3.5 High
DJ Davis OF 4.13 3 60.0 4.0 Extreme
Marcus Stroman RHP 4.38 4 57.5 2.5 Medium
Daniel Norris LHP 5.14 5 60.0 4.0 Extreme
Sean Nolin LHP 6.63 6 52.5 2.0 Medium
Matthew Smoral LHP 6.63 7 60.0 4.0 Extreme
AJ Jimenez C 8.40 8 50.0 3.0 High
John Stilson RHP 9.67 9 50.0 2.0 Medium
Santiago Nessy C 10.40 10 50.0 3.0 High
Alberto Tirado RHP 10.86 11 57.5 3.5 High
Adonys Cardona RHP 12.00 12 - - -
Anthony Alford OF 12.00 13 60.0 4.0 Extreme
Jacob Anderson OF 13.00 14 - - -
Chase DeJong RHP 13.25 15 50.0 3.0 High
Franklin Barreto SS/OF 13.75 16 55.0 4.0 Extreme
Christian Lopes SS/2B 13.80 17 50.0 3.0 High
Deck McGuire RHP 14.67 18 45.0 2.0 Medium
Matthew Dean 3B 14.67 19 50.0 3.0 High
Mitch Nay 3B 15.50 20 50.0 3.0 High
Tyler Gonzales RHP 15.67 21 50.0 3.0 High
Kevin Pillar OF 16.00 22 45.0 2.0 Medium
Griffin Murphy RHP 17.00 23 - - -
Dalton Pompey OF 17.50 24 - - -
Dwight Smith OF 18.00 25 50.0 3.0 High
Andy Burns INF 18.50 26 - - -
Danny Barnes RHP 20.00 27 - - -
Ryan Goins SS/2B 20.50 28 - - -
Jeremy Gabryszwski RHP 22.50 29 - - -
Chad Jenkins RHP 23.00 30 45.0 2.0 Medium
Ryan Borucki LHP 24.00 31 - - -
Dawel Lugo SS 24.00 32 50.0 4.0 Extreme
Yeyfry Del Rosario RHP 24.50 33 45.0 3.0 High
Javier Avendano RHP 25.00 34 - - -
Dickie Thon SS 25.00 35 50.0 4.0 Extreme
Jairo Labourt LHP 27.50 36 50.0 4.0 Extreme
Chris Hawkins OF 28.00 37 45.0 3.0 High
System Grade System Risk 50+ 50+ Grade 50+ Risk 60+ 60+ Grade 60+ Risk
52.222 3.130 22 53.864 3.395 5 61.000 3.800

The Blue Jays continue the trend of strong farm systems in the division, but they also have the highest risk rating in the AL. The top of list includes various High to Extreme risk prospects in the ultimate boom-or-bust farm system. All but one of the 60+ prospects have an Extreme rating, and Aaron Sanchez comes in as a High risk.


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