Building Through the Draft: Best of the Best
Prospects have never been trendier amongst baseball fans than they are right now. The MLB Draft is now televised, most baseball blogs and online publications now publish at least a Top 10 Prospects list for each organization, and struggling fan bases such as that of the Kansas City Royals have begun to see their attendance rise as their prized minor leaguers begin to reach the majors.
The same can be said for their popularity within major league organizations, too.
Teams have begun pouring so much money into the draft that the new CBA contains specific limitations to curb the spending spree. Teams now often value control years more than overall talent and have become extremely cautious in parting with top prospects to acquire proven talent. This generalization goes for both big-market and small-market franchises, too, which is something that was not often said in previous years.
Which teams have benefited most from homegrown talent in recent years? Which teams have drafted amateur players and developed them into major league talent the best?
For a lack of a better endpoint, I chose to look at the draft history of the past decade. I ranked teams in total wins above replacement added by these homegrown players since the 2002 Draft, but also included the average WAR per homegrown player for that club. This helps determine if a team simply hit big on a player or two, or if they had a more holistic success in developing quality big league talent through the draft.
Below are the top five franchises in terms of WAR accumulated by homegrown talent:
#5) Tampa Bay Rays — 80.2 WAR (4.46 WAR/player)
Their inclusion should surprise few, as Tampa Bay has been the poster child for small market organizations building through the draft, but the Rays’ draft history over the past decade has been a mixed bag of success. The organization has only drafted and developed 18 big leaguers in the past decade. Only two teams (Houston and Philadelphia) have developed less homegrown talent. When the Rays have found success in the draft over the past decade, though, they hit the jackpot. Two superstars — Evan Longoria and David Price — along with 2002 first-round pick B.J. Upton combine for 71.2% of the total WAR accumulated by homegrown players in that time frame. And with Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore poised for breakout campaigns in 2012, it seems the Rays are poised to cash in on the draft yet again.
#4) Milwaukee Brewers — 86 WAR (3.91 WAR/player)
After a decade of occupying the cellar in both the AL Central and NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers transformed their big league squad through the draft. Since 2002, they anchored their lineup with the homegrown trio of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun. They also drafted a fringe-ace in right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who has pitched atop their rotation for the past handful of seasons. General manager Doug Melvin then acquired complementary pieces via trade and free agency, which resulted in the first two postseason appearances for Milwaukee since the 1982 season.
#3) Los Angeles Dodgers — 95.5 WAR (3.98 WAR/player)
The recent legal troubles for the organization have sullied what was a solid run from 2006-2009. The latter portion of that stretch was driven by homegrown talent in every portion of the roster. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw headlined the rotation; Matt Kemp — and to a lesser extent Russell Martin and James Loney — provided value in the batting order; and Jonathan Broxton locked down the closer’s role. The Dodgers reached two consecutive Game 5’s in the NLCS in 2008 and 2009. The organization hopes that more recent draftees Dee Gordon, Zach Lee, and Nate Eovaldi can complement Kemp and Kershaw over the next three or four years and help the organization to a postseason berth yet again.
#2) San Francisco Giants — 97.9 WAR (2.88 WAR/player)
San Francisco has been a perennial contender in the NL West for over a decade and earned a World Series championship in 2010, yet many fans overlook just how well the organization has performed in the draft over the past decade. Not only have the Giants acquired superstar talent — like Tim Lincecum — through the draft, but they also have accumulated a myriad of useful big league players. In fact, only the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers have seen more homegrown talent drafted since 2002 make major league debuts. Players such as Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Buster Posey have all played significant roles in the organization’s success in the past decade. The average WAR per player is not overly impressive for the Giants since the 2002 Draft, but the overall accumulation of talent is perhaps the best in baseball.
#1) Boston Red Sox — 100.3 WAR (4.36 WAR/player)
With Theo Epstein at the helm, the Red Sox became one of the most-effectively run organizations in Major League Baseball, and that extended to the draft. Since the 2002 season, the organization drafted one MVP (Dustin Pedroia) and one who perhaps should have been MVP (Jacoby Ellsbury). They drafted one of the best closers in baseball (Jonathan Papelbon), one of the best left-handed starters in baseball (Jon Lester), and one of the best set-up men in baseball (Daniel Bard). Boston doesn’t quite boast the overall depth of quality homegrown talent that San Francisco does, but the upper echelon is clearly the cream of the crop.
Where did the Yankees rank on this list?
wouldn’t your analysis be a bit more indicative of player development ability it it was limited to production during arbitration years? if the royals had developed youkilis, its not clear they would’ve benefited from the 8 WAR he put up in the last 2 years.
Limiting this to players drafted since 2002 takes care of this issue, I think. Youkilis was drafted in 2001 so I don’t think he’s included. Of the players mentioned, only Papelbon has 6+ years of service time, and they just lost him to free agency. Incidentally, this limit also excludes much of the Yankees’ home-grown talent.
moar teamz plz
I would love to see the whole list. Not asking for a capsule on each but just the 1 to 30 list with total WAR and WAR/player.
I’d particularly enjoy a capsule on each of the bottom 5 in addition to this.
Is WAR really the best way to measure this? Something about the way these are calculated seems off. I don’t have an alternative, but it seems like teams that are consistently able to churn out 2-4 win players would be better at drafting than teams who get lucky and develop a superstar.
This is what keeps me sane as a Sox fan: people will compare them to the Yankees all day long because of the amount of money they have, but clearly the organization in the past 10 years has not been build on income alone.
built*
Hardly at all. They’ve spent a ton of money, but mostly wasted it. The bulk of their success has come from development – which is exactly what Epstein announced has his goal from day 1.
The similarity is that both clubs can afford to misspend $100M+.
I’ll echo everyone else. Really cool list, would love to see all the teams!
I know I am slow, but I don’t follow. Using the Phillies as an example, I added the WAR for Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins and Ruiz since 2003 and get 147.8. Am I missing something?
Also, doesn’t this article overlook the imoact of trading good prospects? Again, using the Phillies as an example, their farm system brought in Lee (for one year), Halladay and Pence via trades. Isn’t this a “benefit” of homegrown talent as well?
The list only includes players DRAFTED after 2002, not those who made their MLB debuts. I initally did the same thing with Granderson and the Tigers then realized he didn’t qualify
Thanks.
I think a complete picture also has to include Rule 5 draftees. Arguably they are developed by the acquiring team.
The biggest problem I have wth this list is that it is an over simplification. Teams such as the Sox and the Yankees often develop talent then trade it to another organization for players that can supplement the current roster. For instance the hanley ramirez/anibel sanchez trade that netted the Red Sox Bekett and Lowell. I know that this is not the best example of this as Hanley Ramirez was signed as an international free agent and was not subject to the draft. We also have the problem of teams letting free angents walk and acquiring draft picks (supplemental picks the Red Sox have used well). Also look at where the Rays get the majority of their value from. Longoria, Upton and Price were all top five picks. Picks that the Yankees and Red sox have not even sniffed in well over a decade. This is a much more complicated equation then this article makes it seem. Perhaps the best way to judge this is to take all the draft picks a team has acquired over a decade and add up their cumulative WAR regardless of which Major league team it came for. Justin Masterson would count towards the Red Sox WAR total, Matt Garza towards the Twins WAR total, Delmon Young towards the Rays WAR total etc.,etc.. It will also be much more clear judging WAR totals for 2002-2011 in 2025 as all prospects will have had a chance to develop and contribute.
I don’t know why this never quite came together in my head before, but all of the Giants best players are home-grown, no exceptions: Sandoval, Posey, Belt, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong (in a roundabout kind of way), Wilson, Romo off the top of my ahead.
I don’t know how much of this is good drafting and international signing and how much is good coaching in the minors.
Perhaps the Giants should never sign FA’s nor trade.
The Giants may be the worst team ever at free agent signings and trades,
Boston may be the second worst.
Kinda interesting, huh?
I find it interesting that so much “luck” is applied to the draft analysis, and really the bulk of the “sabermetric teams” (OAK, TBR, and BOS) have come via the draft.
It’s not hard to good and efficient when you’re getting 25+ WAR a year from players that cost 10M/y at most (combined).
Of course, as we’ve seen, the “draft magic” stops after a while. Can the A’s draft a single quality MLB batter?
BOS’s prospects seem tyo be like new cars, the minute you drive them off the lot they lose 25% of their value (once traded they don’t seem to be as good), and I would say TBR is just past being in the “sweet spot” of their organization.
Everyone places the Phillies on the chopping block, but it’s interesting that both teams declines may coincide with each other, given that 2008 was the big party for both.
IMHO, what the data shows is that what you basically need is a really good player every other draft. Sounds easy enough don’t it?
Which Boston prospects are you referring to here? Casey Kelly? Rizzo’s stock shot up post-trade. Masterson put up a 5 WAR season last year. Hanley’s kinda decent.
Rizzo’s stock went down after he hit poorly in his ML debut with the Padres. Epstein and Hoyer ending up with the Cubs is the only reason he garnered as much as he did, which was basically Cashner (a relief pitcher in college and the pros) along with a throw in from each team. Plus, Cashner was on the DL for most of last year. If Cashner ends up being a SP as opposed to relief, then it’s a significant return. But it’s basically a trade of a risky batter (after last year in the majors) for a risky possible starting pitcher.
Compare that to the trade where the Padres acquired Rizzo as the centerpiece along with Casey Kelly & others for Adrian Gonzalez. Even when you take into account the looming free agency of Gonzalez, this offseason’s trade is a step down.
Kelly still looks like he could pan out, but Rizzo’s stock only went up because he was playing in the PCL (hitter’s league) and until he came up to the majors.
In addition to the questions about what teams are able to keep players, I’d also like to bring up that teams that were drafting very early during, especially during the early parts of the sample, have a big advantage, too. The Rays, for example, were bottom feeders from 2001-2007 and drafted close to the top every year.
While this is true (and by design), no prospect is a sure thing. I think it speaks some to the job done by the teams to cultivate talent, especially in the case of a successful team that doesn’t draft in the early rounds.
Of that Red Sox list, the only significant contributor drafted after 2005 is Bard. Masterson, Kelly, and Rizzo were also useful as trade bait.
Reddick+ netted them Andrew Bailey after a +2 half-season.
Complete list! Complete list! Complete list! Please?
I’m glad the Giants are getting credit for the great job they did in rebuilding through their farm system and the draft.
What about Pablo Sandoval on the giants list?