Buyers, Holders, or Sellers?
Now that the draft is over, Major League teams can start reallocating their time to upgrading their Major League roster again, which is why mid-June is generally the beginning of the summer trading season. With two months of the season behind us, teams are beginning to get a better feel for the strengths and weaknesses of their clubs, and are formulating a plan for whether they’ll be upgrading for a playoff race or shedding veterans to shift value from the present to the future.
However, this year, the expanded playoff system adds a bit of a wrinkle to the buy/sell/hold decision making process. With a second wild card available, the barrier to entry for the “playoffs” (if we consider the one-game play-in a playoff game) has been significantly lowered, and now teams that think they’ll finish with ~88 or so wins (or a .543 winning percentage) can consider themselves to have a legitimate chance at playing postseason baseball. Right now, there are 12 teams playing at a clip that would see them win at least 88 games – Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are all on pace to win exactly 88 games, actually – and another four teams that are within two games back of that point, so they’re just barely off the necessary pace.
In addition, there are five teams that are hanging around .500 who each have reason to believe that they’ll play better in the second half (Boston, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee) than they have to date, which brings us up to 21 teams that could theoretically talk themselves into being contenders at this point in the season. There’s little question that the addition of the second wild card is going to motivate some teams that would have been sellers to hang onto their talent, and probably shift a few teams that would have stood pat firmly into the buying category. The result will be more buyers and fewer sellers, which should create some interesting competition for the veterans who actually are put on the trade market.
That’s why, I suspect, the summer buying season may get started even earlier than usual this year. With teams anticipating this kind of structural change, there’s significant risk to waiting until late July to try and make your upgrades, as it’s quite possible that there just won’t be much left at the deadline. A team that is aggressive in pursuing an upgrade in June could not only rent a veteran for a longer period of time, but potentially end up with a better player than they could acquire than if they waited until the last week of July.
The trade-off to making a move sooner rather than waiting another month is that teams are working with a smaller pool of information now than they’ll have by waiting. For instance, the Pirates are currently tied for first place, but should they really believe they’re contenders given their status as one of the worst offensive teams of all time? Another month of baseball will bring more clarity to their ability to stay in the race all year, and for a team like that, that information could be the difference between being a buyer or not. For other teams, though, they have more than enough information to know what path they’re going to take — for instance, no matter what happens over the next month, there’s no real scenario where the Rangers will be sellers. They can buy now without worrying that they may learn something about their team over the next four to six weeks that would have caused them to make a different decision.
So, given what we know today, which teams should be willing to enter into buy or sell mode in June, and which teams should wait for more information before they make any big decisions? Let’s take a look at all the buckets and see who fits where.
Buyers
Team/Record/Run differential
Los Angeles Dodgers: 39-22, +51
Washington Nationals: 35-23, +33
Tampa Bay Rays: 35-25, +27
Texas Rangers: 35-26, +71
New York Yankees: 34-25, +40
Chicago White Sox: 33-27, +35
This group consists of five of the six current division leaders and the Yankees, so these are the half dozen teams that I’d imagine have little to no chance of falling out of the race in the next month and a half. In the case of both the White Sox and Nationals, I’d actually argue that both have enough glaring weaknesses that buying sooner than later might make a legitimate difference in the final standings, given the small margins that should be expected to decide the difference between the division winner and the wild card. Even if the Nationals feel that their strong start puts them on solid foundation for a playoff spot, the difference between winning the NL East and finishing second is pretty significant, and they should be willing to buy earlier than usual in an effort to add even an extra half a win – that could be the difference between ending up in the play-in game or not.
Sellers
San Diego Padres: 20-41, -70
Chicago Cubs: 20-40, -53
Colorado Rockies: 24-35, -33
Minnesota Twins: 24-35, -67
Kansas City Royals: 24-34, -30
Oakland Athletics: 26-35, -27
Houston Astros: 26-34, -28
Seattle Mariners: 27-35, -12
These are the eight teams who really have no chance of making the playoffs this year. The Astros are the only team within eight games of the division lead, and that’s only because the NL Central has been the land of mediocrity this year. In each case, these eight teams are the ones who can confidently move veteran talent now knowing that they’re not throwing up the white flag, and could easily sell rebuilding-style moves to their fan base as in the best interest of the franchise. For the teams that are expecting to make acquisitions this summer, these are the eight teams that should be heavily scouted, as you can pretty much guarantee that each of these franchises will be auctioning off talent at some point in the next six weeks.
With 14 teams definitively in the buyer or seller category, that leaves over half the league in a holding pattern. However, we can break those 16 teams down into likelihood of buying or selling, and while all of the teams below need to prepare for the possibility of either path depending on how they play over the next month, there are some teams that are more likely to go one way than the other.
Likely Buyers
Atlanta Braves: 34-26, +31
San Francisco Giants: 34-27, +5
Cincinnati Reds: 32-27, +16
Cleveland Indians: 32-27, -16
Anaheim Angels: 32-29, +21
Toronto Blue Jays: 31-29, +33
St. Louis Cardinals: 31-31, +55
Arizona Diamondbacks: 30-30, +3
Boston Red Sox: 29-31, +20
Detroit Tigers: 28-32, -16
With the exception of perhaps the Indians and Blue Jays, these teams all began the year with strong playoff aspirations, and since they entered the season in win-now mode, they’re unlikely to shift gears based on what has happened to date. The Tigers struggles have opened the door for Cleveland to make a run at the AL Central division, while the Blue Jays have played well enough to give them a chance in the highly competitive AL East. It’s hard to see any of these 10 teams deciding to just sell off talent in July, but they’re also all vulnerable to a significant slump that could cause them to stay in the holder category all year long. You can sum up these teams position by saying that they’re probably buyers, probably not sellers, but could end up as neither depending on how they play over their next 30 to 40 games.
Likely Holders
Baltimore Orioles: 34-26, -4
Pittsburgh Pirates: 32-27, -19
New York Mets: 32-29, -19
Miami Marlins: 31-29, -28
Philadelphia Phillies: 29-33, -1
Milwaukee Brewers: 28-32, -20
These six teams are all close enough to playoff contention – or expected to be contenders this year – that it is difficult to see them making the transition to full on sellers. While the Orioles, Pirates, and Mets are probably playing over their heads at the moment, they’ve also put themselves in a position where selling might be tough to justify given the existence of the second wild card. Even if they expect regression, it’s probably worth keeping their teams in tact in order to see if they can sneak into the playoffs and reenergize their fan base with October baseball. For the Phillies, Marlins, and Brewers, they aren’t bad enough or far enough out of the race to think that they can’t come back from their current positions, and their rosters suggest that they should be interested in trying to win this year.
The Brewers and Phillies are probably in the most interesting situations, given their talented free-agents-to-be, and if there’s going to be a significant late July market, it might be due to teams waiting to see if Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels do eventually become available. However, if you’re one of the six teams that look to be clearly buyers at this point, you may find it beneficial to make a move for one of the players off the seller’s roster sooner than later. Once some of those 10 teams in the “likely buyers” category start gaining confidence in their ability to contend, the demand for talent is only going to get stronger, and it’s hard to see too many teams currently in the mix moving into the seller category.
The eight franchises who can be sellers probably won’t be joined by more than one or two others, so we’re looking at having 10 or fewer sellers in the market this year. It’s almost certainly going to be a seller’s market, so getting in early may prove to be the best strategy for a team looking to add talent. You might have to pay what looks to be a bit of a premium to be the first buyer in the market, but once July rolls around and there are twice as many buyers as sellers, price could rise quickly. For a team like the Nationals or Dodgers who could use some help to maintain their current place in the standings, a June acquisition is probably the way to go.
Alex Gordon for Jacob Turner/Andy Oliver……which club says “no way”? KC or DET?
What’s the advantage for Detroit here? They’re in win-now mode and the only thing Gordon has to offer is a few walks.
Gordon would improve the Tigers abysmal defense by getting either Delmon or Boesch out of the field….and he would be a good OBP-source in front of Cabrera and Fielder. I think it’s a good trade for Detroit…..I think KC might pass to be honest.
the Royals would nuts to sell low on Gordon.
I love it when Ned Colletti is a buyer. Hopefully he’ll pull off another “James McDonald for Octavio Dotel” gem this season.
Bro, I’m all over this shit. John Rauch, I hope you like wearing the Blue!
Mets will take a bag of used balls for Rauch.
better candidate for the Dodgers might be Daniel Murphy. No way the Dodgers can keep up this offense with paper clips and scotchtape.
As a Dodger fan, I’m terrified at the thought of what Mr. Colleti might do in the coming months..although even blind squirrels find nuts occasionally, right?
Look guy, this job is Tough. See all those youngsters on that roster? They need LEADERSHIP! I’ve been futilely attempting to coax Mark Sweeney out of retirement, but I’ve been thwarted at every turn. OOOHHH, Marlon Byrd was just DFA’d. Imma be right back after I go get his cap size.
Who is Headley going to get traded too?
Have to think the White Sox are looking long and hard at him. The Indians might kick the tires too, if Chisenhall can’t shake his recent strugs.
I have very mixed feelings about the White Sox. I didn’t expect them to be this good and there are reasons they could improve – like if Floyd and Danks start pitching to their career averages – but they still have so many glaring weaknesses offensively. Pierzynski, Viciedo, Ramirez and Morel don’t walk much. Or at all. That’s half the lineup, especially if you throw in Beckham. If they don’t hit home runs they will struggle to score runs and they seem like they could easily be shut down by even average pitching.
Going into the season I was worried they would hang around .500 and delude themselves into thinking they could make a play for the second WC. I wanted them to dump Peavy and Thornton and anybody else they could get value for to start restoring that awful farm system. Now I find myself wondering if they might not be able to find a third baseman who can actually hit a little and what it would take to get him. I wonder if Sale and Peavy can keep it up all year long and make something happen in October. But I’m still leaning towards getting value for Peavy before he ends up on the DL.
I just don’t know right now but at least they are more fun to watch than last year.
When was the last year Tampa Bay was a buyer?
tampa bay has basically been holders the last few years. They seem to sell off players, but most of them are pitchers who they don’t have room for anymore.
Doesn’t Tampa not so much sell as just let players go after they’ve finished arb and become unrestricted FAs?
The Rays organization allegedly refuses to trade for players in their walk year like its a religious doctrine.
PIttsburgh & Baltimore each have an incentive to buy or at least hold just to end their lengthy streak of losing seasons.
I thought Miami would be a buyer considering all the money they spent in the offseason. They’re only 3 games out of a playoff spot.
I think your assessment that the Nationals have a “bunch of glaring holes” misrepresents where they are as a team.
The rotation has been the best in baseball and, while they may not sustain that level of performance, Zimmermann, Jackson, Gonzales and Strasburg are going to give the Nats solid performance going forward. No holes in four of five rotation spots.
In the outfield, they have Bryce Harper (better than average), Mike Morse (good bat, bad glove, overall average), and some guys filling for Werth (who’s average, maybe better). Paying for a sub for Werth doesn’t look like a great idea if he is scheduled to return in July.
Around the infield, they have Zimmerman (star), Desmond (good), Espinosa (average), LaRoche (average), and Flores (below average.)
The Nationals bullpen is good without Drew Storen, who will solidify it.
They have fine bench players in Ankiel, Bernadina, and Lombardozi.
The Nats problem isn’t holes. Flores is the only player who stands out as needing replacement. They’re problem is that they have no clear path to improve the team. They’re playing someone you know you want to replace before the playoffs as an everyday guy.
If I were them, I’d probably look for a starting pitcher simply to off set the risk of injury to one of the ones they have.
Ha, I just said exactly the same thing below, but you said it first.
I’d be happy to point out the Nats glaring weaknesses. Aside from Pittsburgh and Miami, there are no other teams in contention who average fewer runs. You guys score 3.86 runs per game which is good for fifth worst in the NL. If you want a different stat, you can look at wRC where your offense is good for third worst in the NL. OPS is your offenses best stat, where you’re sixth worst in the NL. There’s a reason why your offense is fourth worst(NL) in fWAR.
Now, I’d tell you the reason why your offense is so poor is because neither Desmond or Espy can hit. I’d tell you that Zimm can’t stay healthy and is having a poor year while LaRoche is suffering from some well-expected regression. We can discuss how Ramos has an average bat at best as a catcher and how Flores isn’t very good. Or we can talk about Werth is now below average and your lack of a center fielder.
But that’s all a matter of debate. What isn’t debatable is that your offense can’t score runs.
At what point do you think a weakness is glaring? I’d say a negative to 1/2 WAR player is glaring and that 1/2 to 2 is a weakness. But the players you mention all have a ZIPS(U) WAR above 2.0.
That’s a problem with the team but not a hole in the roster. The team doesn’t have a replacement level guy whose dragging them down who can be easily replaced to improve the team.
To improve the offense, they would need to add a 3+ WAR player to replace a 1.5 WAR player, Flores. You know any 3+ WAR catchers that are currently available?
Improving the roster isn’t as simple as identifying a collective weakness. You have to identify specific players you will replace and determine the value of replacing them.
Monkey – The fact that the Nats have the fourth worst offense in the NL is a glaring weakness. You can debate who the team needs to replace in order to fix it.
I’d tell you that WAR isn’t the stat you want to look at. I’d say that the problem is that the Nats only have four healthy batters who can get on base and two are the sluggers meant to drive guys in. It’s hard for Harper and LaRoche to put up RBIs if they go up to bat with no one on base.
Philo – Honestly, I think that’s why the Nats are going to flounder for the next five years. You’re right, there’s no one who obviously needs to be replaced. But what you guys have clearly isn’t working, just look at the team stats. Just because you have no one who obviously is bad doesn’t mean that everyone meshes. You’ll need to make an upgrade because what you have doesn’t work.
“But what you guys have clearly isn’t working, just look at the team stats.”
LOL. What do you define as “not working”? I see the second best team in baseball (35-23) with the third highest run differential in the NL (7th in MLB).
You can’t fault the team for not getting full production from Morse and Werth (their #4 and 5 guys) due to injury. By August, when Werth is back, and Zimmerman’s finds a way out of this slump, you won’t be talking about how they’ll “flounder for the next 5 years” (seriously… you think that?)
While I agree about the “lack of a center fielder,” at this point if you bring in an everyday CF, then Werth’s return creates a logjam. LaRoche at 1B, Morse in left, CF, Werth – where’s Bryce Harper?
The Nationals’ problem is they have too many completely average players in positions where there are no obvious upgrades. If anything, they could trade for a Werth substitute using Espinosa, and then have Lombardozzi start at 2B. But who wants Espinosa?
I guess because you guys have an excellent pitching staff then that means having an awful offense is acceptable. Obviously the best thing to do with an excellent pitching staff is to force it to win 2-1 games instead of trying to maybe get a good offensive player or two so you can score. Because after all, an excellent rotation plus a good offense would be able to compete for a WS.
I don’t think Zimm’s main problem is that he’s slumping. I mean, yes he should have a higher BABIP than .280. But I think his main problem is his drop in FB% and HR/FB%. And for those, his 2011 and 2012 numbers are looking similar and those numbers are looking similar to his 2007 and 2008 numbers. He may be only an .800 OPS hitter as opposed to a .900 OPS hitter. He hasn’t been a .900 OPS hitter since August 2010.
If that’s the case, then who do the Nats have that’s an elite offensive talent aside from Harper?
I don’t know if you’ll flounder for five years but your biggest enemy will be settling for good enough. Desmond, Espy, Werth, Ramos and Morse all may be good enough but I’m not sure any is above average.
Matt P., “I’d tell you that WAR isn’t the stat you want to look at.” Uh, this is still fangraphs, right? A win is a win.
I agree, the problem the Nats have is how to grow. None of their players are bad and so upgrades aren’t really over replacement but over an about 2 WAR player which gets pretty pricey for not much benefit. The only exception is that they arguably only have three good starters available for the post season and so could use a fourth arm.
What I could see them doing is trading for a catcher rental or even trading Ramos for someone with some time left on the clock.
They only have 3 good starters for the postseason?
Assuming you excluded Strasburg, who’s the odd man out? Zimmermann or Jackson?
Both have been fantastic so far, and would be good #2s on most teams.
Oops, I’m an idiot and can’t count.
But either way, you usually only need 3 SPs in the post-season (using the 4th for long relief).
Hmm I agree with the sentiment but if I was the Nats I’d really be looking to plug a hole at C for this season and at 2B. This has actually been a good year for 2B and there’s a number around MLB hitting well but Espinosa is definitely not one of them. Also, they really have to monitor LaRoche because if at some point his bat dies they’re going to need to replace him. 1B is typically where you can add a big bopper and the 3 years previous to this he’s been a below average 1B. The other option is upgrading an OF spot and being able to move Morse to 1B or adding a lefty-mashing OF and move Morse to 1B vs. LHP, and he goes back to LF with LaRoche at 1B vs. RHP.
except that Desmond isn’t good and LaRoche isn’t average. They’ve both done fairly well so far this season but it’s likely they’re going to regress to their respective means over the last half of the season.
Desmond is sitting at 98 wrc+. A basically league average hitter at shortstop is more than good enough. Who else are you going to get?
In the case of both the White Sox and Nationals, I’d actually argue that both have enough glaring weaknesses that buying sooner than later might make a legitimate difference in the final standings, given the small margins that should be expected to decide the difference between the division winner and the wild card.
Just curious, where are the Nationals glaring weaknesses? Their pitching staff seems to be set (both rotation and bullpen, especially once Storen returns in a couple weeks). Their infield appears to be pretty solid too. Sure, in the long-term you’d ideally upgrade on Desmond, but the trade deadline is usually used for short-term 3 month rentals (and never mind the fact that Desmond currently has the 8th most WAR among SS). Then in the outfield, Morse and Harper have two of the spots locked up, and Werth should be back in August. So do you think the Nats should acquire someone now until then? Finally, the Nats could use a back up catcher and maybe a RH 4th OF, but I fail to see these multiple glaring weaknesses. Maybe a non-Nats fan can point them out to me?
Here’s the way I see it.
Look up aggregate team stats (all of which can be found on MLB.com)
- Total Runs scored as a team
- Triple Slash Line Overall
- Triple Slash Line with RISP
Compare and rank them against the league.
For example, regarding runs scored:
Nationals have 224 runs scored as of June 11th, 2012.
Only 3 other teams in the NL have fewer runs scored: Cubs (222), Pirates (191), Padres (205)
The Nationals don’t score many runs, but they don’t give up many runs either. That’s been key to their success.
Obviously guys like Bryce Harper are only going to be better, and guys like Werth will return from the DL, but it wouldn’t hurt to grab some external help to score more runs in general.
Extension:
To further the concept that the Nats score few runs, but they don’t give up many runs, look at the following:
Nats are 13th best (or 4th worst) in runs scored in the NL
Nats are THE BEST at preventing runs in the NL, only giving up 191 runs so far.
Believe it or not, every other team in the NL has given up at least 200 runs or more.
So I doubt there is any particular glaring weakness in the team’s offense, but rather, the team needs to pick up the offense in general.
Well you also have to specify where they will upgrade the offense. Harper, Morse, Werth in the OF when healthy. Zimmerman, LaRoche on the corners when healthy (LaRoche has been alright so far), tough to peg a SS trade candidate who will dramatically upgrade over Desmond. 2B and C aren’t exactly where you can dramatically upgrade offense either (also they should definitely be looking).
All your team needs is more RS than RA, right? I’d say you have a problem when your RS – RA wedge is too small, but put the 1927 Yankees lineup in the same team with Houston’s pitching staff and you will be fine.
Aggregate team stats can also be found under the “Teams” tab at the top of the page, just fyi.
Fair point, but this goes back to my original point, where do you upgrade the offense?
A lot of the blame for the poor offensive numbers falls on their 3-4-5 hitters. Zimmerman’s been dreadful (.246/.321/.354), Morse was injured until last week and Werth has missed the past month. The Nats have to hope that Zimmerman will snap out of his slump and Morse’s return (and Werth’s eventual return) will resolve these offensive deficiencies. Otherwise, I’m not sure what the Nats can do. Get a new 2B? Who exactly? Jamey Carroll or Darwin Barney? Neither solves that offensive problem. Or a catcher? Jason Castro?
The only way I can see the Nats improving their team is acquiring a RH OF to play while Werth is out. Xavier Nady should never have seen a single major league AB this season, but as Werth’s return date draws nearer, it makes less and less sense for them to go after a real impact bat like Pence or Willingham, when Werth is only marginally worse than them.
I agree that it is tough to find a spot to improve the Nats. Really one of the biggest problems for their aggregate offense this season have been solved. Ankiel has seen 144 PA with a 70 wRC+, Mark DeRosa saw 44 PA with a -2 wRC+, and Xavier Nady has seen 100 PA of a 21 wRC+. Those are really bad offensive numbers, but those guys aren’t in the Nats line-up anymore because Harper/Morse/Lombo are seeing those PA’s.
As for specific weaknesses:
Flores can’t hit. He has an wRC of 62. You can use an upgrade at catcher.
Espy and Desmond are below average batters. However, the problem with them is their low OBP. Neither has a career OBP much above .300. It’s awfully hard from them to score runs if they don’t get on base. The way your team will succeed is if your leadoff hitter and second hitter can get on base, so the heart of your order can knock them in. Well, Espy and Desmond don’t do that. Ankiel doesn’t either, so you can probably use a CF also.
Zimm has stopped hitting for power. His FB% and HR/FB% is down. You’re stuck with him for the next six years, but it’s something to worry about.
Basically, you guys need upgrades at CF, SS, 2B and C.
I agree, but high OBP middle infielders don’t grow on trees.
For example, SS who are better than Desmond: Lowrie, Andrus, Furcal, Castro, Aviles, Tulo, A Cabrera, Hardy, Reyes, Escobar. Which is those players can be acquired?
And what’s the point of acquiring another OF bat, when Werth will essentially be a deadline acquisition when he returns in early August? And if you do, who do you bench between Werth, Morse and Harper?
No doubt the Nats could use another catcher, but again, who’s available. I’d love to get a guy who could bat .300/.400/.500 from behind the plate, but the number of players who would be significant upgrades on Flores and are on bad teams is a small group. Your options would be something like Jaso and Doumit. Given their defensive prowess, neither is more than a 0.1 WAR upgrade on Flores.
Just about anyone is an upgrade over Flores. You may not be able to get a .300/.400/.500 but it’s possible to get someone like Jason Castro with a .260/.330/.370. That’s a huge upgrade over Flores’s line.
Adding someone like Jamey Carroll would be an upgrade. Fine, he can’t slug, but he gets on base. I know Desmond has a higher fWAR. In the real world, teams don’t win based on fWAR. A guy like Carroll can hit in the #2 slot and get on base so that Harper and LaRoche can knock them in. You can’t do that with Desmond.
Aside from that, the Nats may have to consider a big trade. Suppose they offer Espinosa/Desmond, Goodwin, Ray and Marrero for Lowrie?
As for a catcher, I’d like to see Mauer (full contract price) traded to DC, maybe even for Ramos. The nats are willing to pay above market $/WAR and the Twins want to trim down the overhead. Plus, then maybe Mauer would have a hope at a ring.
The Angels were buyers already this year, making a great move to get Ernesto Frieri. I’m not sure they need much else. The bullpen situation has really stabilized now
What a steal too.
It’s not surprising at all. He got traded to the weaker league …
I really dislike the Red Sox Roster going forward and with all the Injuries, the slow start, and the competitive AL EAST, I see them havin g ahard time going deep even if they make the playoffs. I’d be al for some shaking up of that roster. They are stuck with Crawford and Gonzalez (he should come around). Keepers include Salty, Pedroia, Bucholz, Doubront. I wonder what Lester and Beckett might fetch them. Ellsbury, Youk, Avilles, Ortiz and others are also open season.
Some of the “Likely Buyers” have suffered significant injuries that have contributed to their under-performance. In these cases, the likelihood that the injured players will return and be productive, as opposed to being essentially lost for the season, will presumably affect their decisions on buying, and their timing.
Likewise, some teams maybe waiting to cross the super-two threshold, which is maybe two weeks away, to call up some help down in the system. I would suggest, for example, that Toronoto could use Travis d’Arnaud any day now; he’s murdering AAA.
The Jays are definitely buyers. One more nice acquistions and they’re clear favorites in the AL East. Yankees and Red Sox will be lucky to be within 10 games this season.
As philosofool said above, the Jays don’t need to buy if all they need is one more big name. Just hang on until you cross Super Two, then bring up d’Arnaud.
Do the M’s have anything to sell?
Olivo, Figgins, League? That ought a put a contender over the top!
King Felix…
There is always a manager that thinks he can “fix” a player that has shown he is capable, so League is a definite. We can’t give away Figgins and we might be able to pawn off Olivio on someone if their catcher gets seriously hurt and they have no back up in AAA, but we would be lucky to get a bag of peanuts for him. One guy you haven’t mentioned is Millwood, and managers always love a veteran down the stretch and we have kids knocking on the door wanting to get their shot.
The one good thing about the Pirates offense being so bad is that it probably wouldn’t cost them much to improve it significantly. A mediocre corner IF and a medicore corner OF makes the offense significantly better and those types of players should be able to be acquired without hurting the future too much. Kind of like Lee and Ludwick last year.
Yeah the Pirates went on a tear after getting Ludwick and LEE.
I’m not sure where in my comment it said that the acquisitions got the Pirates into the playoffs. I just made the comparison to illustrate the ability to pick up a corner infeilder and outfielder at little cost and players similar to what Lee and Ludwick were worth last year would be a vast improvement for this tema.
And, if you did a little research, the Bucs tailed off after those acquisitions last year because of the pitching regressing and McCutchen cooling off a lot. Lee, in particular, was fantastic after coming over to the Pirates.
The idea that the Twins are sellers is a little silly. They basically sell out, and nothing takes the wind out of sales quite like announcing you are a selling team. I realize that it couldn’t be much more obvious that the Twins need to sell, but with Mauer on a lengthy contract, they are on high pay for the foreseeable future and filling seats is the one thing they have going for them.
The Nats will happily trade you a proven closer – Brad Lidge – for whatever AAA catcher Mauer’s currently blocking. :)
The hitch with the Nats “going for it” is always going to be Strasburg’s innings limit. Their best pitcher will not be playing in October. They had all kinds of chances to upgrade the bench for a few million in the offseason and didn’t do it, it will take more to make them give up on the building the team idea for a temporary rental. If the Nats do make a move, it would probably be a bigger deal to get a young center fielder they can control for a few years, that’s a thorn in Rizzo’s side. Maybe the Storen for Span talks get restarted. I doubt it.
I don’t think Zimmerman’s been having bad at bats, his results have been a bit unlucky. Desmond’s actually pulling his weight at short and lower in the order, maybe that doesn’t last, but the current glaring issue is how long do you wait for Espinosa to start hitting RH pitching? They have a guy in Lombardozzi who he can platoon with when Werth comes back. Things are going too well for them right now to mess with it despite the average sort of look to a healthy Nats offense. If they do get into the playoffs Gonzalez/Zimmermann/Jackson are fine as the front three, then you have plenty of time to decide or just try to match up with Detwiler, Wang, Lannan, or whoever is hot for a fourth starter. They’re probably not going to worry about a seventh starter better than Lannan at this point, unless it’s a bigger deal to get Greinke, who they’ve tried to get before, with a contract extension. Maybe they can make a little deal to get a guy like Kole Calhoun from the Angels for the outfield, why that team needs ANOTHER center fielder is beyond me and Bourjos appears to have value to them.
Seriously, with the innings limit? Have you seen Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman or Edwin Jackson pitch lately? Sure, anyone who takes over for Strasburg is going to be worse, he might even be 1 win worse than Strasburg over the final few weeks of the season, but not much worse than that. While 1 win could decide the NL East, the Strasburg innings limit is the most overblown story of the year.
Agreed. I can’t believe how much space he dedicated to talking about Olivo, the Mariners and…wait, what?
Great article DC. A good follow-up would be to list players (maybe top 3) on each team most likely to be moved, maybe also examine each team’s strengths/weaknesses.
To get it all in quickly, you could do it either by division or by type of team – buyer, borderline buyer, holder, borderline seller, seller.
Jason Vargas and Brandon League could be useful pieces that the Ms might trade. But yes, its a good thing he spent 10 paragraphs talking about who the Ms will trade and what they’ll get. Oh wait…
Coming from a Mariners fan:
We’re probably looking to move the following
1. Brandon League (a proven reliever who’s experiencing a down year)
2. Kevin Millwood (cheap SP who’s pitching like a #2 or #3 right now)
3. Jason Vargas (not necessarily someone I’m ready to give up easily, but with the Fister, Bedard and Pineda trades of late you have to assume any SP on our lineup is trade bait)
4. John Jaso (average to below average defensively, but a very solid bat when put up against RHP)
5. Blake Beavan, Miguel Olivo, Chone Figgins (all definitely guys we’d like to unload, but most teams will more likely than not have the common sense to pass on)
6. Most every minor leaguer
7. There’s also Mike Carp, Alex Liddi, Brendan Ryan and Munenori Kawasaki but I’d consider these guys to be underperforming and overvalued by the organization (save Kawasaki) so they’ll just be tough to move, but not untouchable by any stretch of the word.
8. For the right price Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero are all options for teams to target, but they’ve got to come guns a’blazing.
The only guys really who aren’t targetable on the Mariners would be Taijaun Walker, King Felix and Ichiro! And I’m probably stretching by including Taijaun.
In short, don’t come talking about how the Mariners have nothing to sell. We’ve got a whole organization at our disposal.
I see the Rockies moving almost all their veterans at some point, and soon.
Guthrie (if someone will take him), Scutaro, R. Hernandez, and Giambi should all be available shortly. Betancourt might be as well.
O’Dowd has a decent opportunity this summer. Hopefully he doesn’t blow it.
Did anyone mention during the discussion about the Nationals that they might want to think about upgrading at 1B? Unless you are a believer that Adam LaRoche will maintain this pace, then there are not one (Detroit Tigers) but two (Boston Red Sox) teams that a) are not playing particularly well, b) have to be thinking about selling, and c) have not one but two high-paid first basemen.
Miguel Cabrera would be a great target for Washington, would he not? Am I missing something here?
Miguel Cabrera isn’t going anywhere this year. Though he might not be completely untouchable, Detroit’s attendance numbers would absolutely plummet if he was shipped out. He is a future Hall of Famer on a team owned by a man in his 80s who wants to win now. Verlander is probably untouchable, and Cabrera is a close 2nd. It just wouldn’t fly in Detroit.
The Tigers are far more likely to ship off prospects right now.
If this no-defense, crush-the-ball, and hope-the-(top-of-the)-rotation-pitches-you-to-a-World-Series prototype fails, maybe they start selling mid-2013. But not now.
It’s almost certainly going to be a seller’s market, so getting in early may prove to be the best strategy for a team looking to add talent. You might have to pay what looks to be a bit of a premium to be the first buyer in the market
That’s only part of it. Sure, there are teams that should be sellers because they don’t expect to win this year… but if they don’t have much worth buying in the first place, or if what they have to sell isn’t what anyone needs, it changes things a bit.
Most of the sellers wouldn’t be able to do much more than offer bench depth and injury protection to real contenders, unless they were willing to part with their own franchise building block players.
I mean really, is Kevin Millwood going to put a contender over the top?
As the article notes, the extra wildcard shifts the balance toward sellers. However, the changes in compensation rules for free agents (specifically the requirement a player be with a team the entire season for compensation to apply) work in the other direction. It isn’t clear that the net of these two changes favors buyers or sellers. Might be close to a wash.
Jays sell.
Arencibia has good value at C, moved to make room for D’Arnaud.
Johnson. Solid 2B with team-friendly contract, will be dealt to realize some value, as he won’t be back.
Escobar agrees to move to 2nd to make way for Hechavaria at SS. It would hurt to see him go, but Escobar has to accept reality, or be traded.
Encarnacion signs a 4y/$32m contract or he’s gone.
I see it as both Encarnacion and Escobar make team-friendly decisions because Anthopolous is willing to wait out the kids on the farm, rather than give up financial flexibility.
Barring impact trades, the Jays starting lineup next year is C-D’arnaud, 1B- Bautista, 2B- Escobar, SS- Hechavaria, DH- encaracion, 3B- Lawrie, LF-Snider, CF- Gose, RF- Rasmus.
Once the Nationals are healthy, what are their “glaring weaknesses”? I don’t see them, getting Morse back has been a big deal and the Nats have scored enough runs even though Ryan Zimmerman has gotten off to a terrible start. Sure, they could use a left fielder, but as long as Danny Espinosa keeps getting playing time at 2B, Steve Lombardozzi has been more than adequate. The bullpen could use some help, but they’ll get Storen back in a couple of weeks and Werth should be back around the trade deadline.