Can Shane Victorino Get A Five Year Deal?
Shane Victorino has been pretty chatty about his contract lately. He’s said that he wants to stay in Philadelphia and will give the Phillies a “home town discount” in order to keep him, but then yesterday, he noted that his goal is to get a five year extension that would cover his age 32-36 seasons. Victorino’s been an underrated player for a while and has certainly been vital to the Phillies success, but can he really expect to land a five year contract next winter if he hits free agency, as his agents have suggested?
Here are the players that have signed contracts of five years or longer as free agents over the last five years.
Alex Rodriguez (10/275)
Albert Pujols (10/240)
Prince Fielder (9/214)
Mark Teixeira (8/180)
CC Sabathia (7/161)
Carl Crawford (7/140)
Jayson Werth (7/126)
Matt Holliday (7/120)
Cliff Lee (5/120)
Jose Reyes (6/106)
Torii Hunter (5/90)
John Lackey (5/83)
A.J. Burnett (5/83)
Adrian Beltre (5/80)
C.J. Wilson (5/78)
Aaron Rowand (5/60)
That’s 16 guys, or about three five year contracts handed out per winter. They’re not all that common, and as you can see from the list of names, they’re generally reserved for pretty good players. That said, there are some Victorino-like players on that list, and guys he could point to as reasonable comparisons on some points.
Rowand is the natural starting spot, as like Victorino, he was an unheralded player who made good as the Phillies starting CF, and turned one monster offensive season into a big contract from the Giants. However, Rowand was two years younger than Victorino when he hit free agency, so the contract just took him through his age 34 season, and that contract was a colossal failure for the Giants, so other teams probably aren’t going to want to repeat that mistake. The contract was also handed out five years ago, and teams have gotten smarter since then. His agents can point to Rowand if they’d like, but I don’t think that’s going to be a convincing argument for too many GMs.
Torii Hunter is the other natural comparison on the list, as he got five years that covered his age 32-36 seasons, and in terms of on field performance, Victorino has been a better player than Hunter leading up to his free agent seasons. However, Hunter was the fortunate recipient of an outsized defensive reputation, and he specialized in the skills that are best compensated by the marketplace – specifically, hitting for power. He hit 59 home runs in his final two seasons before free agency, while Victorino has only hit 79 home runs in his career. Victorino’s contact skills and speed simply aren’t valued the same way as Hunter’s home runs and highlight reel catches were, and despite being a better player, he won’t be viewed as favorably as a player with a different skillset. Pointing to Hunter can help make the case that a +3 win CF in his mid-30s is deserving of a five year deal, but when you factor in the discount that goes along with his skillset, it might be a tough sell.
Perhaps Victorino’s best argument for a five year deal is not a center fielder at all. Adrian Beltre and Shane Victorino might not seem all that similar, but they actually have more offensive similarities than you might think. Neither of them strike out much at all, and while Beltre has a bit more home run power, he hasn’t hit more than 28 home runs in a season since 2004. Like Victorino, Beltre had essentially been a +3ish win player based on league average offense and good defensive value before he had a monster season in Boston that landed him his five year deal with Texas that covered his age 32-36 seasons. Victorino’s big year came one year before his contract ended, but his line the last five years (115 wRC+, 21.2 WAR) looks a lot like Beltre’s from 2006-2010 (111 wRC+, 21.2 WAR).
However, Beltre did have the advantage that his best offensive season came in the most recent year, while an expected regression from Victorino this year might serve to make his big year look more like a fluke than genuine improvement. Beltre’s defensive reputation is also significantly better than Victorino’s, and he’d shown himself to be one of the game’s most durable players as well. Toss in his more obvious physical advantages and the extra power, and I’m guessing most teams would prefer Beltre to Victorino. Still, the differences are small enough that you could make a compelling case for the comparison to be valid, and the recent Yadier Molina and Ryan Zimmerman extensions do suggest that defensive value is being valued more highly now than it has been in the past.
If Victorino has another big year, he could probably get five years, but that would take away his ability to choose where he plays, as there would probably only be one bidder willing to go that high. If he really wants to stay in Philadelphia, he’ll probably have to settle for a four year contract, or if the market treats him more like a Jimmy Rollins, he might even have to settle for three.
135 miles south of Citizen’s Bank Park is another team in need of a CF, who’s not been shy about handing out long term deals lately…
He’ll be on the market that could include Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton though.
Speaking of Bourn, reading this made me slightly more optimistic about the Braves re-signing him.
Thank you for not mentioning $/WAR. Thank you.
So what would be a good AAV for a 4 year extension? I’m thinking 4/50 would be pretty fair as most likely he’ll have to move to RF once his range starts declining even more.
Beltre and Victorino seem like very different players. I don’t know if averaging nearly 25 hr/season in the safe vs 15 hr/season at citizens are exactly comparable. Seems to me that a lot of Victorino’s value is derived from his speed.
Not that it changes the thrust of your article, but Adrian Gonzalez also has a 7 year, $150 million contract.
And Ryan Howard, 5 years, $125.
Neither was a Free Agent contract. Thank you for playing.
Gonzo and Howard did not sign as free agents… otherwise, the list would be a lot longer. The 4/50 extension sounds fair to me.
Thank you for mentioning Rollins, as how he was handled will be eerily similar to that of Victorino. The Phils prioritized another option more than the up-the-middle veteran (in 2011 Papelbon, in 2012 Hamels), and although Rollins/Victorino are one of if not the best options available for their position, their age and propensity for the DL will have teams slow-playing for their services. Rollins also asked for 5 years, and no one was willing to offer that (to my knowledge), and he settled with the Phils for a reasonable 3 year deal with a reachable 4th yr option. I’d say Vic gets the same treatment, especially since he has more legit starting-caliber options available to interested teams than Rollins did, let alone that both Bourn and Upton are younger and could be seen as having some upside. My guess is a 3/$39 deal, with a PA option for the 4th year.
Part of the argument for Victorino is that he’s a classy guy in the clubhouse and a high-energy player on the field (like Beltre) — and such intangibles might, and probably should, influence a team’s decision in considering a long-term commitment.
I’d agree that, ideally, being a “classy guy in the clubhouse” should be an part of a team’s decision, but I’ve thought the same thing in the past and seen players leave during free agency. Most recently, Michael Cuddyer left the Twins this offseason, where in spite of his supposed clubhouse leadership the Twins couldn’t (or wouldn’t) make the best offer.
probably a gritty gamer too
I don’t care how “Jeteresque” a guy is claimed to be, past your prime you’re nuts for asking for a 5 year deal.
You are not nuts for asking for one.
Yeah it’s hard to make an argument for a five year deal for being Jeteresque whenvDerek Jeter didn’t even get a five year deal.
“High-energy” = classless douchebag?
Dicktorino
Good one.
YEAH! Classless!
-Eagle Scout, Lou Gehrig Award winner, Branch Rickey Award winner
-started a Foundation which has given $1m to renovate the Boys and Girls Club in Philly, provides free tickets/T-shirts/concessions to Police Athletic League-Children’s Hospital of Philadephia-Special Olympics.
-funds training programs on Maui to teach construction skills to underprivileged youth, through building free homes for the elderly.
-funds afterschool programs to battle dyslexia on Maui
-funds programs to teach new parents skills needed to raise their disabled child
The world needs more classless scumbags, apparently.
being a “great clubhouse guy” got cuddyer his deal, so it’s possible the same logic will extend here
Fun facts:
Victorino is already the 2nd oldest CF in MLB (among 2011 qualifiers).
Only Coco Crisp is older. (1 year)
Coco Crisp is Victorino’s #1 comp on BBref.
No one was trying to lock up Crisp for 5 years this offseason.
Having said that, I would not be surprised or upset if the Phils locked up Shane for 5. But as noted above, 3 or 4 seems more likely.
You’re right, Dave. Those are fun!
Thanks vlj. Your validation means everything!!!
(it’s as meaningful as Jeter’s gold glove collection)
over the last 3 years:
victorino: 13.3 WAR
crisp: 7 WAR
it is shocking no one wanted to give coco crisp, already a year older, a 5 year deal. as for victorino, he won’t get 5 years either, although at least there is a case to be made for it, if it defrays costs for the phillies, allowing them to be flexible with their finances nearterm.
I agree.
Over the last 3 years, I respect those WAR figures, and take them into account.
Fact is, when Shane is a FA, at the end of this year, he will be the same age as Crisp was this off season… NO?
Fact is, Crisp is the #1 age equivalent comp (of all MLB players ever, up to Victorino’s current age) on BBref at this time. If you have better comps, who are they? Please take into account all seasons up to current age, not just the last 3.
I’m a Phillies fan. I do not hate Victorino. I love him just like the rest of the fan base!
His BBref comps (of which Crisp is just one), have not aged very well, with the notable exception of Jose Cruz. The comps that are nearly the same age (like Crisp) provide little predictive value.
Despite my seeming “negativity”… I am completely OK with pinning my hopes on the fact that Shane works his ass off, as usual, and becomes J.Cruz Sr… and not all the other comps.
But I try to keep my eyes open also.
Its an old team already. CF is (generally, and currently) a young man’s position.
Shane is already on the upper end of that age.
Those are facts. No?
Coco Crisp started playing full-time at 23, Victorino at 25. Comparing their career totals when Crisp has two full more seasons under his belt makes the Bref comp pretty useless.
Memo to Victorino: When all your comps are more like cautionary tales, maybe it’d be best just not to talk about your contract publicly at all.
If the face of the Philes (J-Roll) didn’t get that, no way the flyin Hawaiian will.
Its a pure negotiating tactic…they’ll settle on a 3 year deal or a 3 year/4th year vesting deal.
He was their best position player last year…crazy as that might sound.
Right. It seems to me that Thursday’s comments about wanting to stay in Philly were Shane’s actual views and Friday’s comments about wanting five years were his agent’s views on trying to recoup some leverage. If the Phils decide that they want to keep Shane, a 3 year deal with a 4th year option sounds likely.
The fact that Shane was the team’s best position player (among all players who were on the team for 2/3 or more of the season) is not crazy at all.
I think the lack of quality CF options will force the Phillies to re-up him unless he has a poor season or gets injured. Bourn, Upton and Victorino will all be FA. Minus the Mets, all the other teams in the NL East will be in the market for a CF (including the Phillies). The Braves may even have a little $$ if Chipper’s ’13 option doesn’t vest (PAs I believe). They’d hate to lose him to up and coming division rivals I would think.
“The recent Miolina and Zimmerman contracts suggest defensive value is more highly valued”
How long ago did you write that article on confirmation bias?
Are you saying that’s not a valid statement?
No it’s not a valid statement. There’s no evidence at all that Zimmernan’s defense was anywhere close to being properly compensated or even valued at all. Zimmerman’s free agent years were locked up at $15 million per. That’s what his offense alone suggests he’s worth. You can argue hometown discount all you want but if the true value of his defense was at all being factored in, he would’ve been EASILY getting $18+ million a year even with the “hometown discount”
JD Drew anybody? I know he played RF and had a little more power, but they were the same age and he got a 5 year deal.
scott boras is a rare bird.
We can’t start off a serious discussion with this amount of inaccuracy. Rowand also had what could be considered 2 All-Star quality seasons with the CWS including a WS champ season. Looking back now we mock Rowand and his contract, but at the time he was a pretty good hitting, strong defense CF. No kidding, +12 in ’04, +17 in ’05 … who was known for max effort. Aaron Rowand had a great reputation as a “team guy” and had good performance to go with it. As a full time player from 04 to when he signed his SFG contract, he had basically had seasons of 2, 4, 6, 6. He was good.
Some could say Rowand’s bat was never “that” good and could point to two monster season and a bunch of average to slightly below average seasons at the dish. He continued that and worse as a Giant.
Now how does this play into Victorino? IMO, SV is more like Rowand than the mashers on that list.
My suspicion is that he won’t get a 5-year deal because much of what he does is under-valued, and he already has the reputation as being oft-injured … which generally doesn’t age well. Like Utley, sometimes he’s too tough for his own good, and doesn;t take a day off until he needs 15 of them.
He’s an above average bat + above average glove CF.
I don’t think he’s going to experience drastic reduction in skills and his skills will actually age well. My concern is his games played. He’s tough and he battles through everything and even then misses quite a few games. As he ages “bouncing back” and “fighting through” is going to become tougher.
I would rather pay him a higher yearly salary for a 4-year deal. 4/52 or something like that. I don;t need to give him “Yadi’s contract”.
Your first sentence suggests you are going to question the SV/AR comp by the using the words “amount of inaccuracy”. Then you use the rest of the post to agree that indeed Victorino and Rowand ARE good comps, or I am just reading your first sentence wrong?
I was disagreeing with Rowand being unheralded or just having one big year that got him the contract.
I’m neutral on whether they are good comps.
My guess is that Philly is hoping that John Mayberry continues to play at least as well as he did down the stretch in 2011, in which case the Phillies can let someone else overpay the aging/injury-prone Shane Victorino next winter, move Mayberry over to CF, and promote Domonic Brown to be the team’s every day LF.
If the team is going to spend a fair amount of money on a position player next winter, that player might be a 3B, not Victorino. Placido Polanco is looking pretty close to being done as a productive every day player and I don’t believe there are any promising 3Bs in Philly’s farm system. I’m not sure what 3Bs will be available next winter; I tend to think that Philly should’ve spent Jonathan Papelbon’s money on Aramis Ramirez this past offseason, but whatever. Maybe they end up targeting Chase Headley. Headley doesn’t sound too exciting but this isn’t exactly a golden era right now for 3Bs. There’s Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, and then what?
In any event, re-signing Cole Hamels will be the team’s #1 offseason priority, presumably.
what??? beltre’s best season was 2011? what about that monster year in LA?
Nice….