Can Yoenis Cespedes Showcase Talents In MLB?
Yoenis Cespedes made his professional debut Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League. The much-hyped Cuban defector promptly went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a hit by pitch. At least there’s nowhere to go but up.
Although Cespedes has yet to establish residency outside of Cuba and is still ineligible to sign as a free agent, the market has largely cleared (outside of Prince Fielder), and thus the Hot Stove’s attention turns his way. Expect the hype to approach and potentially surpass that which surrounded Aroldis Chapman two years ago — Cespedes may not having something as tangible as a 100 MPH fastball, but he does have The Showcase. He also has a tremendous record as one of the Cuban League’s best hitters at just age 26. But it’s difficult enough to project the performance of solid minor leaguers, where data is largely complete and comparables abound. How can we even begin to filter through the noise in Cespedes’s excellent statistical record?
Start with the facts. Cespedes has been at least good in the Cuban League since his debut in 2004 and has largely destroyed pitchers since 2006.
| Year | Lge | AB | H | DB | TP | HR | BB | SO | R | RBI | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | CBA | 288 | 87 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 65 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 0.302 | 0.379 | 0.503 |
| 2005 | CBA | 339 | 106 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 59 | 69 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 0.313 | 0.398 | 0.540 |
| 2006 | CBA | 339 | 119 | 24 | 4 | 23 | 44 | 43 | 89 | 78 | 8 | 3 | 0.351 | 0.442 | 0.649 |
| 2007 | CBA | 340 | 103 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 42 | 53 | 79 | 66 | 15 | 10 | 0.303 | 0.398 | 0.541 |
| 2008 | CBA | 366 | 104 | 16 | 2 | 26 | 32 | 50 | 82 | 78 | 4 | 4 | 0.284 | 0.342 | 0.552 |
| 2009 | CBA | 328 | 106 | 19 | 0 | 24 | 43 | 40 | 83 | 76 | 4 | 4 | 0.323 | 0.411 | 0.601 |
| 2010 | CBA | 342 | 118 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 42 | 45 | 87 | 67 | 5 | 3 | 0.345 | 0.426 | 0.617 |
| 2011 | CBA | 354 | 118 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 49 | 40 | 89 | 99 | 11 | 3 | 0.333 | 0.424 | 0.667 |
Although Cespedes shows excellent numbers across the board here, what really stands out is the power. Cespedes has four seasons with at least a .600 slugging percentage and just polished off a 33 home run season in a league where his 354 at-bats was among the league leaders. The pace he set in the 2011 Cubans season was for a whopping 56 home runs. But as Clay Davenport shows us, Cespedes wasn’t the only one to put up big home run totals in the short season.
Cespedes was tied for the record this year by Jose Abreu, who did it in 60% as mnay atbats, and there are a whole slew of players right behind them. This looks like a pretty normal leaderboard, not the leaderboard of a record-setting season – which is how you can be pretty sure the record really belongs to the conditions, not the individual. Give him credit for leading the league in HR, but leave the record talk out of it.
The leaderboard in question:
| Name | AB | HR |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 212 | 33 |
| Yoennis Cespedes | 354 | 33 |
| Reutilio Hurtado | 321 | 30 |
| Joan Carlos Pedroso | 253 | 29 |
| Frederich Cepeda | 305 | 28 |
| Alexander Malleta | 311 | 27 |
| Alfredo Despaigne | 261 | 27 |
| Edilse Silva | 331 | 25 |
So although Cespedes was definitely one of the top power hitters in the Cuban League, his exploits are hardly all-world or necessarily the best in his own country. The Cuban parks seem to be very difficult to pitch in. According to Davenport’s translations — which probably have to be taken with a pound of salt given how few players make the transition from Cuban baseball to American professional baseball — Cespedes’s numbers still work out to above-average major league power. I don’t think this is a terribly surprising conclusion — it’s difficult to hit 33 home runs in 350 at-bats in any league. It just doesn’t necessarily mean a 60-homer season is coming in the states.
The next question relates to plate discipline. Observe, rough (due to the lack of HBP/sacrifice data) walk rates and strikeout rates for Cespedes’ career.
| Year | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 8.9 | 22.6 |
| 2005 | 9.1 | 17.4 |
| 2006 | 11.5 | 12.7 |
| 2007 | 11 | 15.6 |
| 2008 | 8 | 13.7 |
| 2009 | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| 2010 | 10.9 | 13.2 |
| 2011 | 12.2 | 11.3 |
Cespedes has shown remarkable improvement from a hack-tastic first season, all the way to the point where he walked more times than he struck out in 2011. However, there is the question of how many of those walks were intentional — he was in the process of setting a new home run record, after all. Either way, Cespedes made excellent contact in each of the past four seasons and although his strikeouts will undoubtedly rise against the higher talent in the MLB, we shouldn’t expect him to be the next Austin Jackson.
It’s tougher to get a grip on his ability to take walks. As mentioned, the number may be a bit inflated by intentional walks. However, the number could be deflated because his talent gave him little reason to work counts and take pitches against Cuban pitchers. When you can hit .330 with mammoth power, the marginal gain of working the count is minimal. It’s tough to say if this has developed habits that will be tough to shed against MLB pitchers who can work corners with more deceptive pitches, or if instead he’ll be able to lay off and take walks when they are offered to him. Either way, a walk rate consistently over 10% is most definitely not a red flag.
Just looking at the statistics Cespedes compiled in Cuba, there isn’t a glaring weakness which looks to tank his game upon landing with an American (or Torontonian) squad. He was as complete as a player can be in any league. Much of his value depends on his ability to play center field, of which there seems to be optimism around scouts. His Cuban numbers seem to suggest above-average power for the position already, and with any sort of plate discipline he has the ability to push an All-Star level in MLB. With his power and his superior athleticism and strength, the risk factor for Cespedes seems lower than with other relative unknown players, and the reward if he reaches his potential could be incredible.
his last name also means fields, as in baseball fields or center fields, which is tight.
he’s no Prince of Fielder though…
Does anyone dare to attempt a projection for him over a full season?
I’d take a hack at it. I would guess his first year would be around
.285/.335/.480
.245/.290/.450
Somewhere around this. I don’t think he will be able to hit MLB pitching.
Everyone should check out this site I found! It is great. The url is: khandyman.com
Comparing Yoennis Cespedes stats and Red Sox Cuban playing in Pawtucket Juan Carlos Linares stats in Cuba.
05-06:
Linares: .319/.385/.513.
Cespedes: .351/.444/.649
06-07:
Linares: .345/.467/.586
Cespedes: .303/.402/.541
07-08:
Linares: .308/.438/.536
Cespedes: .284/.342/.552
08-09:
Linares: .325/.430/.588
Cespedes:.323/.411/.601
OPS comparison: Y. Cespedes vs. JC Linares:
05-06: L: .898, C: .1093;
06-07: L: .1053, C: 943;
07-08: L: .974, C: .894;
08-09: L: .1018, C: .1012.
Now I don’t know if they played all the games, but they should as they were both stars. There is a difference however: Linares is one year older (1984 against 1985), and signed for 750’000$ with the Red Sox. Cespedes wants 60 million$…
stat links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoennis_C%C3%A9spedes
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bu…nares_%2802%29
I think whoever gets Cespedes, will regret it considering the money that he’ll likely get. The Cuban league is similar to A+, as far as I heard.
Felix- that’s a nice comparison, but Cespedes did improve in his next few years but it is apparent that the cuban league numbers are very skewed. How did Juan Carlos Lineras do in the minors?
He doesn’t yet have much of a track record to speak of. He’s pretty much a non-prospect.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa560967&position=OF
So far he has 60 at bats in two seasons because of injuries. 2012 will hopefully be a better indicator. He has a chance to replace McDonald as the right-handed bat in RF, imo.
Jack, you brought up league norms in your discussion of his power, but you don’t do so in regards to his contact and discipline. Do you have any idea what the league average K% and BB% are in that league? I don’t know, but in a low-level offensive-oriented league, I wouldn’t be surprised if walks were just as common as strikeouts.
Little nitpick, “cesped” actually means “lawn” or “well-maintained grass.” Plain “grass” is “pasto.”
You would just refer to the baseball field as the “diamante” and to the LF, CF, and RF as “jardin izquiero/central/derecho.”
“his last name also means fields, as in baseball fields or center fields, which is tight.”
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jard%C3%ADn_%28b%C3%A9isbol%29
kind of a racist joke, but I’ll say it anyways, basically if cesped means “well-maintained grass” then they can market the hell out of him as the best lawn mower to ever come out of cuba if he doesn’t make it as a baseball player.
such bad joke delivery
that’s part of the joke John. I tell jokes that way long enough, eventually it becomes funny, not just the joke, but how poorly I tell the joke. At least that’s my cover.
Who is this Jose Abreu character and why did he get so few at bats?
Abreu missed 23 games due to bursitis in his shoulder
Not real familiar with Cuban baseball, is there any fear that he might be on PEDs? If he’s on PEDs, at 26 (or older), then that’s really going to diminish his value. Even if he’s not, I don’t take a chance on a 26 year old who sort of hit for a lot of power in a minor league equivalent. There are a handful of guys every year who put up similar numbers in leagues of similar quality at much younger ages.
Good question. In the developing countries ive been in PEDs are available over the counter and even sold openly in gyms. Wouldnt be surprised if that were true in Cuba too.
Some baseball people have questioned the decision of Cespedes to play winter league ball. Because the benefit is minimal (playing good in winter ball means not much), but he could 1. hurt himself, 2. hurt his value with a specially poor showing.
Cespedes at bats:
Game 1
Yoenis Cespedes strikes out swinging.
Yoenis Cespedes strikes out swinging.
Yoenis Cespedes strikes out swinging.
Yoenis Cespedes hit by pitch.
Game 2
Yoenis Cespedes grounds out, shortstop Pedro Florimon to first baseman Mauro Gomez.
Yoenis Cespedes strikes out swinging.
Yoenis Cespedes pops out to catcher Wilkin Castillo in foul territory.
Yoenis Cespedes pops out to first baseman Mauro Gomez.
Game 3
Yoenis Cespedes strikes out swinging.
Yoenis Cespedes singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Carlos Triunfel.
Yoenis Cespedes pops out to third baseman Carlos Triunfel.
Yoenis Cespedes grounds out, shortstop Anderson Hernandez to first baseman Robinson Cancel.
Game 4
Yoenis Cespedes grounds out, third baseman Fernando Tatis to first baseman Mauro Gomez.
Yoenis Cespedes lines out to left fielder Denis Phipps.
Yoenis Cespedes grounds into a force out, third baseman Fernando Tatis to second baseman Julio Lugo. Jesse Gutierrez out at 2nd.
Yoenis Cespedes grounds out softly, catcher Wilkin Castillo to first baseman Mauro Gomez.
If you look at his stats he plays poorly and if you look at the play-by-play you see that he struggles mightly. Not only does he strike out, but he is also pulling the ball and managed to only hit one ball out of the infield so far.
Cespedes is 1-15, 5 K’s, 3 pop outs, 5 ground outs, 1 line out.
Here the live stream with one game every night (You have a 50% chance of getting Yoennis Cespedes):
http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/7469.htm
A few days ago the pitching matchup was Francisco Liriano vs. Edinson Volquez. Pretty nice, I think. Former Red Sox like Engel Beltre, Julio Lugo, Brandon Moss or John Halama are playing too.
Basically for all the internet hype, GMs saw past the BS (most of them) and now we are seeing why. A hype video doesn’t really do much for me either. Any news on the validity of the “marlins and 5 other teams heavily chasing Cespedes”?