Carlos Beltran: A Solution to the Mariners Problems

Sometimes the idea comes to you just after the fact. Sometimes it’s so obvious that you can’t believe that it didn’t occur to you before you wrote the article. Almost immediately after pressing Publish on yesterday’s article on the Mariners putrid offense, a few friends and I started talking about the issue. That’s when one friend said it. Couldn’t Carlos Beltran help the Mariners in every conceivable way? Why, yes he could. While it’s unclear what the Mets seek for their right fielder, and it’s equally unclear what the Mariners are willing to spend, the two make a perfect match for a trade. Adding Beltran’s bat and glove could be the difference for the M’s in the AL West.

While the Mariners are offensively deficient at a number of positions, they are particularly inept in the outfield. The nine players who have roamed the outfield grass for Seattle have combined for a .266 wOBA and -1.9 WAR. That is 3.6 WAR and .039 points of wOBA behind the next worst team. There are things that won’t change, such as Ichiro playing right field and, most likely, Franklin Gutierrez playing center. They’re established at those positions to different degrees, and there don’t appear to be any viable replacements. But in left field there is a gaping vacancy.

Of all the players thought to be available at the deadline, Beltran is far and away the best. He ranks 24th in the majors with a 3.2 WAR, and 21st with a .379 wOBA. He’s not quite at his peak hitting levels — few players at all have reached that point in this depressed offensive environment — but he’s still hitting like a top tier player. Yet the Mets, while playing well, are 10 games back in the NL East and 7.5 games back of the Wild Card. Their management now is smarter than the team they had in 2004, and so we likely won’t see them trading top prospects for useless pitchers. I would think that would move Beltran for the right package. Considering how many teams could use a power-hitting, good fielding corner outfielder, he could get expensive for a rental.

That puts the onus back on the Mariners. Do they have, and are they willing to surrender, a package of prospects that will entice the Mets and at the same time not completely deplete the farm system? Frankie Piliere ranked the Mariners’ farm system 16th in baseball, while Keith Law had them 10th and Baseball America had them 18th. That puts them solidly in the middle of the pack, and even with the promotions of, and dependences on, Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda, they likely have enough in the stores to appease the Mets. Would they be willing to center a deal around Nick Franklin, whom the Mets could use to replace Jose Reyes? Law thinks that Stephen Pryor (currently getting shellacked at hitter’s paradise High Valley) and Tyler Burgoon (1.69 ERA as a closer in A ball) could move quickly. The Mariners also have the recently promoted Kyle Seager, plus a high-end but raw arm in Tiajuan Walker. That is, they definitely have the pieces to make a deal if they so choose. The question is of how much they’re willing to give up for the sake of the 2011 team at the expense of the 2013 and 2014 teams.

If the Mariners found the right combination of prospects to entice the Mets, they’d dramatically improve their team with one move. Not only would Beltran slide into the vacant left field slot, but he’d keep with the Mariners scheme of quality outfield defense, as to help their already excellent pitching staff. Beltran would also give them an excellent middle of the order bat to complement the streaky, but still very good, Justin Smoak. They’d have to take on salary in order to make the move, and it’s unknown exactly how much they can absorb. But if they’re serious about the 2011 season, it shouldn’t matter greatly. Beltran would turn one of their greatest weaknesses into a strength.

In the next week, maybe two, we’ll hear the Mets and Mariners continue the familiar refrain. They’re open to deals, but are waiting for the right one to come along. For the Mariners, Beltran is almost certainly the right player. They have enough talent on the farm to fairly compensate the Mets and still have enough ammunition for the future. It’s just a matter of the two sides agreeing to the specific prospects and the dollars changing hands. It will be a complicated process, but if the Mariners can swing it they could make a big second half run for the AL West crown.



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Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.


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Doug
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Doug
5 years 16 days ago

The Mariners are further out of a playoff spot than the Mets are, why would Seattle trade for him and why would the Mets even deal him at this point?

Tedge
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Tedge
5 years 16 days ago

The Mariners are 4.5 games out. The Mets are 7.5 games out.

acerimusdux
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acerimusdux
5 years 16 days ago

The Mariners are 9.5 behind the Yankees for the Wild Card. That means they have to pass two teams for the division, the Angels and Rangers. They are 5.5 back of one and 4.5 back of the other.

The Mets have 4 teams to pass in the Wild Card, but they are a half game back of 2 of them. So mainly they have to catch the Braves and Diamondbacks. They are 6.5 back of one and 4 back of the other.

And the Mets are 40-30 in their last 70 games, and have done that without a couple of their best players. The Mariners also got off to a slow start, but have gone 35-30 in their last 65.

Overall, it’s pretty close. It’s not clear the Mariners have the better playoff chances.

Ed
Guest
Ed
5 years 16 days ago

The Mets may have a better record than Seattle, but they are 10 games out of first and 7.5 games out of the wildcard. The odds of them catching two teams as good as the Phils or the Braves are remote at best. The Mariners are only 4.5 games behind the Rangers and have been as close as 1 game in the past 2-3 weeks. Their odds of making the playoffs are considerably higher.

Collateral Damage
Guest
Collateral Damage
5 years 16 days ago

Ummm the Mariners are 4.5 back of the division and the Mets are 10 back, but nice try…

acerimusdux
Guest
acerimusdux
5 years 16 days ago

Try the Playoff Odds Report:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

As of 7/8,

Mets 2.6%
Mariners 1.7%

As of right now, Seattle is 5.5 back in their division, but 9.5 back of their wild card race. The Mets are 10 back in their division, but 6.5 back in their wild card race.

The point shouldn’t be which is better, it’s that neither really is looking that good for 2011.

Ja4ed
Member
5 years 16 days ago

Huh? The Mets are in 5th place in the NL Wild Card race, 7.5 games behind the Braves. They’re out of it. The Mariners are in 3rd place in the AL West, only 4.5 games behind the Rangers. They have a chance.

Beltran might not even be a Type B free agent since he only played 145 games in ’09 and ’10 combined. The Mets have no reason to pay the ~$9 million left on this contact.

This year, Beltan has been worth about 5 wins more than the Mariners leftfielders. That’s the difference between the 3rd place Mariners and the division leading Mariners.

ror0071619
Member
ror0071619
5 years 16 days ago

It doesn’t matter if he’s a Type A or B, he has a clause in his contract that he can’t be offered arbitration at the end of the contract.

Dennis
Guest
Dennis
5 years 16 days ago

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

Just to prove to you that the author was not making numbers up when he mentioned that the Mets are 7.5 games back of the Wild Card, linked is the standings. Mariners have a 3 game advantage in reaching the postseason, as opposed to the Mets.

Bill
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Bill
5 years 13 days ago

But, the playoff odds calculator is a much better indicator of the team’s odds of making the playoffs because it doesn’t ignore the wildcard. Both teams are long shots. The M’s slightly more so. However, the M’s best player isn’t becoming a free agent next year and their ownership wasn’t part of a Ponzi scheme. So, the trade might still make sense.

Steve
Member
Steve
5 years 16 days ago

How do you figure?

Ed
Guest
Ed
5 years 16 days ago

Could Seattle request that the Mets take on Chone Figgins as well to offset some of the salary costs?

Jesse
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Jesse
5 years 16 days ago

Uh no.

JerrysKids
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JerrysKids
5 years 16 days ago

Awesome. The last time I laughed so hard was never.

Roger Workman
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Roger Workman
5 years 16 days ago

lolcomments

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 16 days ago

Yes. And the Mets could then request King Felix.

But neither of those requests will get anywhere.

monsignorwiggles
Member
monsignorwiggles
5 years 16 days ago

The Rays make the most sense for me.

Pelly
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Pelly
5 years 16 days ago

In general?

Richard
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Richard
5 years 16 days ago

Then go get a tan!

Boomer
Member
Boomer
5 years 16 days ago

With a .362 projected wOBA rest of season (250 ABs) and +5 fielding runs projection in a half season, Beltran is projected as a 1.8 win LF, if I did the math right.

So he has essentially zero surplus value. Once the Mets realize they are out of it, they should accept just about any offer for him.

jessef
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

No, you don’t base in-season trade value on surplus value over contract — particularly when you’re talking about one of the best players available on the trade market. Surplus value assumes that other players can be acquired at the same time. In this case, there are few better players available (and fewer still who fit the Mariners needs as well as Beltran).

JerrysKids
Guest
JerrysKids
5 years 16 days ago

Then you ain’t getting Beltran.

The price isn’t what you say it is… it’s what the market will bear. Now there’s people – and I know ’em – who’ll pay a lot more than “nothing” for a 144 OPS+ corner bat at the deadline.

Boomer
Member
Boomer
5 years 16 days ago

Obviously they’ll take what the market will bear. But if they hold him through the deadline, turning down offers because it’s not enough, then it’s a fail on the Mets part.

Unless they plan on re-signing him (doubtful)

vivalajeter
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vivalajeter
5 years 16 days ago

Boomer, I don’t agree with that. If they can’t get anything for him, why just hand him over to another team? If someone will pay his entire salary, there’s value in that. If someone will give up a good prospect, there’s value in that. But if the Mets have to pick up a portion of his contract and they still don’t get a good prospect, I don’t see why the Mets would make a trade. It’s certainly not a fail on their end.

It should also be mentioned that ‘rest of season’ projections are just one projection, and they take into account his subpar production from when he was unhealthy. He’s been better than that projection the entire season.

David
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David
5 years 16 days ago

So your math would put him as nearly two wins above replacement. Which is worth something like 8 or 9 million according to fangraphs?

Average players are worth more than nothing. This is because they are better than half of the other players in the league.

Also Beltran is not average. An average player is worth 2 wins over a full season (i.e. 650 PA or so). A player who is worth 1.8 wins over 250 PA is a 4.5 win player over a full season. And a 4.5 win player is a very good player!

David
Guest
David
5 years 16 days ago

Oh, I see you’re implicitly discounting his salary. My presumption is that the presumption of the article is that the Mets get prospects but eat his salary.

Beltran might be worth more to the M’s than just the fangraphs win formula though. Wins that help you towards a playoff spot are worth more because they put butts in seats and sell jerseys. And if a team actually makes the playoffs…

Luke
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Luke
5 years 16 days ago

What about the indians matching up well with beltran? I mean they need a RF in the absence of choo and they have some pieces that could move rather eaislily and are further in the playoff race then the Ms

isavage30
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isavage30
5 years 16 days ago

I agree. Between the Mariners and Indians, I’d say the Indians make a lot more sense, since adding Beltran would be more likely to push the Indians into the playoffs than the Mariners, though Mariners management has in the past liked to deal at the deadline for marginal upgrades that don’t help much, so they might be more likely to make a move. The Indians have a lot of guys they could give up … I’d be fine with parting with: Cord Phelps, Jason Donald, Valbuena, Kelvin de la Cruz, Jeanmar Gomez, any reliever in their system other than Chen Lee. The question would be, what would the Mets be asking for, and what would other teams be willing to give up for Beltran? Also, the Mets would have to remain at least as far back as they are now at the trading deadline to even make a move.

The Rays probably make the most sense for Beltran though, if they want to make a move.

Anon
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Anon
5 years 14 days ago

The Indians have no reason to deal for Beltran. They’re not going to be able to resign him, so why would they bother giving up the prospects?

kick me in the GO NATS
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kick me in the GO NATS
5 years 16 days ago

I think the Indians should trade with the Cubs for Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. Get those two without giving up to many prospects and they go deep in the playoffs.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

Do you realize how much of their budget that would eat up? Ramirez has a clause in his contract that turns his $16m option next year into a player option if he’s traded. Soriano is at least that much. There’s no team in baseball that will take both of those contracts. There’s no way the Cubs eat any of that salary without getting something in return. I surmise, the Indians would rather go with they have (which isn’t worth that much less in present and future value).

maqman
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maqman
5 years 16 days ago

As an M’s fan I would not want them to trade any of our good farm hands and take on additional millions in salary for a short term rental. GMZ has a plan and I don’t think this type of move fits in with it at all.

Templeton1979
Member
Templeton1979
5 years 16 days ago

I thought of this as a possible trade myself maybe two days ago. Good call!

Templeton1979
Member
Templeton1979
5 years 16 days ago

Btw, Mike Trout, the other Bryce Harper except faster, is making his debut with the Angels tonight! The 19 year old New Jersey native will be the youngest current player in the majors and has a .429 wOBA, .392 BABIP, 11 triples, 9 home runs, .330 avg, and 28 stolen bases in 74 games at AA with the Arkansas Travelers this season!

kylegocougs
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kylegocougs
5 years 16 days ago

he’ll fail!
(or at least as a M’s fan I hope)

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

Off Topic, much?

rbt
Guest
rbt
5 years 16 days ago

And Trout is NOTHING like Harper. They both play outfield, but the comparisons pretty much end there.

Templeton1979
Member
Templeton1979
5 years 16 days ago

Bryce Harper in terms of hype, not style

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

Harp leads Trout in power potential and douchiness.

In fact, I did some research. Harper has the highest wDOUCHE (predictor of future douchiness) of any prospect since they started recording the stat in 2004 when A-Rod was a huge douche and they looked back at his minor league stats to see if it could have been predicted.

Scott
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Scott
5 years 16 days ago

I read recently that the Mariners won’t be able to take on any additional salary this year (or very little). Given that Beltran is making $18.5 million this year and the Mets are (reportedly) looking for a trade partner to pick up most or all of his salary, I don’t think the Mariners are a viable option. That’s just too large of a number.

Derek
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Derek
5 years 16 days ago

Jon Heyman has previously reported that the Mets are willing to eat most, if not nearly all of Beltran’s remaining contract if it means a better prospect return. They’re looking to re-stock a farm system, not necessarily for salary relief.

Franco
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Franco
5 years 16 days ago

I was about to add this to the discussion. Sandy has said that they will take on most of the salary of KRod or Beltran to get better prospects even after the Wilpon financial scandals.

mkd
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mkd
5 years 16 days ago

As an Ms fan I would love to have Beltran hitting 3rd every night, but I have no interest in giving up anything to get him. I think the Ms goal for 2011 should be to stay as competitive as possible in order to begin the process of bringing the fans back, but keep the focus on 2012, 2013, 2014 when all these kids might actually turn into something. If we’re going to trade for someone old I want them to be (basically) free. If we’re going to give up talent I want building blocks (dear Reds we have pitching give us hitting!)

Josh
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Josh
5 years 16 days ago

I can’t see Walker or Franklin being traded by the M’s management. They’ll offer some B/C prospects (Carlos Triunfel, relief arms) and ask the Mets to pay a decent chunk of his salary. The Mets will move on to someone with better prospects to offer and/or more salary relief.

Everett
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Everett
5 years 16 days ago

I agree. While I’d love to add Beltran, there’s no way I see the Mariners giving up anything more than average prospects at this point for him. Certainly not a guy like Franklin, and probably not Walker. Hopefully Z can work some magic.

Random Guy
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Random Guy
5 years 16 days ago

If this team trades Nick Franklin or Taijuan Walker for a one-year rental of Carlos Beltran, I’m done following them forever.

Thankfully, they won’t.

Adam Krell
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Adam Krell
5 years 16 days ago

That’s just silly. Is it a debatable move? Sure. But in order to come to a conclusion like that, you’re either vastly underrating Beltran or vastly overrating Franklin and Walker.

I like both Franklin and Walker a lot, and think they’re very nice prospects. But Franklin has a long swing and wasn’t even hitting in High Desert, and Walker doesn’t have great command, has only pitched in low A ball, and has never put his arm through the stress of full-time pitching. Again, they’re very nice prospects, both of whom have a lot of potential, but both are a long ways away from being anything resembling a productive major league player.

Beltran has been 5 wins better than M’s LFs this year. The M’s are 4.5 games out of first place. They would replace one of the biggest black holes in all of baseball with one of the top 20-30 players in the game.

If it only takes Franklin or Walker, plus one or two fringe level prospects, I’d do that every day of the week if I were the mariners.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

Fine… you’re not counting on the Rangers improving their team. It’s not a big enough upgrade to give up significant talent like Franklin or Walker. You’re significantly underrating their value. They could do a lot better than a very-expensive 2 month rental for either of those assets. They’re just not close enough this year to trade those kind of pieces for a player that is fragile and won’t bring anything back in draft pick compensation. The Mets have to realize how little bargaining power they have with Beltran because of that.

The Mariners have multiple places in their lineup where they can improve. They can split the difference Beltran would make, and it would cost them a lot less to do so. The Mets can get some other team to overpay them for Beltran.

Random Guy
Guest
Random Guy
5 years 16 days ago

Adam – I don’t see how that makes sense. Beltran might have been 5 wins better than their LF combo so far this season — but those games are in the past and we’re looking at two months, a 2-3 win differential at best while the team is 4.5 games back (and as noted above, Texas is also likely to make some moves). For a player who’s very high on the prospect list? To get into the playoffs, where their best hope of advancing is just the “anything can happen in a short series” principle?

You seem to be ignoring the rental aspect of it. As noted upthread, the team that loses him might not even get any draft pick compensation because of all the missed time. If there’s a draft pick then the calculus changes.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 15 days ago

Forget about draft-pick compensation at all… it’s in his contract he can’t be offered arbitration.

Ari Collins
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

Seems like an AL East team would be a better fit for Carlos.

GiantHusker
Guest
GiantHusker
5 years 16 days ago

Beltran has a no-trade clause, probably would rather not move in the middle of the season and probably likes playing in NY.
Explain to me again why everybody thinks he will waive the no-trade clause.

Za
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Za
5 years 16 days ago

Everybody thinks he will waive the no-trade clause because Carlos Beltrán said he would do it if asked.

Roberto
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Roberto
5 years 16 days ago

No, he didn’t say he would waive it for just anyone. The Mariners have a worse record than the Mets. And while they are closer to the leaders in their division, they are not a very good team. Add to that the need to move all the way across the country to a pitchers park, and it’s highly likely Beltran would nix a trade to Seattle.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 16 days ago

Beltran would be a really good hitter in Safeco Field. Pitcher’s park or not, left-handers hit really good there. They also have legendary starting pitching. The view from the Mariners looking up at the Angels and the Rangers would look a hell of a lot better than the view from the Mets looking up at the Braves and the Phillies. He could also recreate his magical run after getting traded to the Astros.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 16 days ago

Regardless of any view, the playoff chances for both teams are not good. BUT the chances for the Mets are actually better than they are for the Mariners.

According to BP, as of today, the Mets playoff chances are 2.6%, while the chances for the Mariners are just 1.7%.

It would be a lateral move at best for Carlos. I doubt he would approve such a trade.

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

Who came up with those numbers? If Haren or Weaver get hurt, Seattle is definately beating them. If Hamilton gets hurt again, Seattle can overtake them. Hanson, Oswalt, Prado, Heyward, etc have all spent time on the DL and Reyes has been playing insane ball and the Mets are still way out of it.

Seattle has a better shot. 4 team division, closer to the lead, chasing weaker teams, etc.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 16 days ago

Can you read? BP did those numbers.

And the Mets have been missing Reyes, Wright and Ike. That’s three of their best position players.

The Mariners are just a bad team. With their tiny chances of making the playoffs, Beltran is not going to approve a trade there.

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

I can read. “BP” isn’t a person though. I wanna know the actual person who came to that conclusion; because it’s wrong.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 15 days ago

No, BP is not a person, it’s a group of people. BP is Baseball Prospectus. BP is commonly used on forums and chat boards as a shortcut for the longer name.

And BP is just giving the odds for making the playoffs. The Mariners chances as of yesterday were worse than the Mets. After last nights games, the difference is probably even a little larger now.

It’s neither “wrong” nor “right.” It’s just their statistical analysis of playoffs odd. No one is going to believe you over BP.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 15 days ago

I don’t care who you believe or not… look at it for yourself based on any metric you want. The Mets have to jump two teams which have them crushed right now and have no signs of slowing down. Even if they’re completely healthy, they’re behind the two best teams in the National League… and they haven’t been that healthy all year. The Mariners don’t have that problem.

BTD
Guest
BTD
5 years 16 days ago

What about the Giants? they could really use a middle of the order bat. What kind of prospects would it take for them to get Beltran? Neal, Hector Sanchez, Peguero, Adrianza, Surkamp? hope they wouldn’t give up a Wheeler or Belt.

Franco
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Franco
5 years 16 days ago

Seems like their new prospect strategy is to stockpile strike throwing arms and OBP w some pop/hope they can learn how to field types.

Mariners Fan
Guest
Mariners Fan
5 years 16 days ago

Um, would people please stop trying to get the Mariners to sign 35 year olds? We need a YOUTH movement people and we need to trade Bedard for prospects, post haste.

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

If you trade Bedard, then your really really good pitching becomes “good”. I wouldn’t do that.

I think they’re a lot like the Pirates. In a decent position that if everyone plays to their best ability, a possible playoff spot. Not a whole lot of pieces that are definite trades, and you don’t wanna trade prospects either.

BW Kropotkin
Guest
BW Kropotkin
5 years 16 days ago

Dear Fangraphs,

Please refrain from making posts that even slightly give us the thought that we could have Carlos Beltran in our outfield. This is considered torture.

Signed,
M’s Fans

Klatz
Member
Klatz
5 years 16 days ago

Beltran while is is one of the better options out there has several disadvantages that will lower the price a buyer is will to take on.

1) He’s a pure rental since he’s entering free agency after the season
2) He’s got a clause in his contract that prevents the team acquiring him from offering arbitration, i.e. no compensation picks for him leaving
3) He’s represented by Boras and therefore less likely to take a discount to stay with the acquiring team
4) He’s got an injury history plus recent knee surgery
5) For the Ms he’ll most certainly leave after the season

For the M’s they really have to believe that he’ll push them over to the playoffs. IMO that only makes sense if the prospects given up are averageish, not Franklin nor Walker. I could see Triunfel, Seager, perhaps Paxton. And that’s not to mention the 9 million he’s still owed this season.

BTD
Guest
BTD
5 years 16 days ago

F boras. you would think GM’s eventually decide they not going to deal with him. that’s what i would do. and Jonathan Sanchez was one of my favorite players but i hope the Giants get rid of him rather than overpay with the turd boras.

slamcactus
Guest
slamcactus
5 years 16 days ago

Totally. Why wouldn’t teams decide they’re done pursuing top free agents and the top talents in every year’s draft class? Sounds like a winning strategy to me.

ngrimson
Guest
ngrimson
5 years 16 days ago

Yeah I hate how Boras locks GMs in rooms with guns to their heads and makes them sign those contracts. One day MLB will outlaw front office hostage taking as a negotiating tactic and then Boras won’t be so smug.

I won’t even get into how many of Mike Rizzo’s fingernails he pried off during the Jayson Werth negotiations.

Franco
Guest
Franco
5 years 16 days ago

No one was going to offer him arb anyways. He’d be crazy not to accept and only have to take a 10% pay cut.

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
5 years 16 days ago

The way he’s played so far this year, I’d think there are a few teams that would be happy to overpay a little to get him on a 1-year contract this off-season.

Feeding the Abscess
Guest
Feeding the Abscess
5 years 16 days ago

Why not go after Will Venable instead? Career road numbers, in 567 PA:

.271/.337/.444 with a wOBA of .344

18 HR, 19 2B, 7 3B, 28 SB with a .271 average.

He’d have to be tons cheaper, too, right?

kick me in the GO NATS
Guest
kick me in the GO NATS
5 years 16 days ago

Who says Beltran would have to be a one year rental? If Seattle made the playoffs then Beltran might be very open to a deal that would keep him there through 2013 or 2014. Sure he is an injury risk, but in the AL he could DH if his body fails him more. If not then the Mariners get a top bat with a decent glove in LF to help the youngsters excel. After all his injuries, I doubt he would want more than he has been making. Granted a hefty pot for Seattle, but maybe not if they reach the playoffs most years he was there.

StalkCutter
Guest
StalkCutter
5 years 16 days ago

Adam Krell says”

“But Franklin has a long swing and wasn’t even hitting in High Desert,”
Dude, you just wake up from your coma? You need to get out and watch a few games instead of coping and pasting the band director’s report on players. Franklin was the first teenage middle infielder EVER to lead the Midwest league in Dingers. STM loss??

High Desert is a no win for any player. If a guy doesn’t hit 25 homers and bat 320 he stinks / fell on his face / underperformed and if he does it was because of High Desert. 275 isn’t hitting?? Franklin was torching AA before getting blindsided by a flying bat.

C’mon man! Step away from the keyboard, get ya an all beef dog, some liquids and go to a ball game so you can intelligently post something.

DAMellen
Member
DAMellen
5 years 16 days ago

As an M’s fan, I find the idea of dealing a major prospect for a rental pretty unrealistic (especially one with a no arbitration clause in his contract). Walker, Paxton, and Franklin are ours. Michael Saunders, Carlos Tri, Beavan, Robles, Cortes, Lueke (if the Mets are cool with a criminal record), those are the kinda guys that I see the Mariners dealing for a rental. That may make Beltran a non-option, but I think it’s the right move and I think it’s what Jack Z’ll do. Our system’s on the rise, but we don’t have so many future studs lying around that we can just give away any of our top three.

Dylan
Guest
Dylan
5 years 16 days ago

Beltran has a full NTC. Safeco isn’t a great stadium to hit (better than Citi, but not enough for him to go on a tear and increase his value in free agency), the Mariners probably aren’t legitimate contenders, and Beltran is a smart guy who will realize that there are other teams (especially if Alderson is willing to trade within the division) that give him a better chance of playing deep into the playoffs to increase his value like he did in 2004 and get a ring.

short
Guest
short
5 years 16 days ago

The big problem for the Mariners is that they won’t be the only bidder, and the price will quickly go out of their range. Beltran is the eigth or ninth best outfielder in baseball according to wOBA, wRC+ and WAR. He will command a good return in some combination of salary relief and prospects.

The M’s don’t have a lot of salary room, and Jack Z. has made it clear he doesn’t want to do prospects-for-rentals deals. Plus, the fact that one of those other teams is likely to be a more serious contender (Atlanta, SF, Detroit) makes it even less likely Beltran will choose to let a deal with Seattle go down.

As an M’s fan I’d love it (I wanted him the year he signed with the Mets) but I don’t think there’s a serious possibility it will.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 15 days ago

I’d love for Z to be in there driving up the price though.

totes
Member
totes
5 years 16 days ago

no. none. not happening…

looks like your a little late for the party– maybe 6 weeks ago. Seems a little too far removed from what the mariners want and need at this point. We don’t want or need a rental player. We don’t have the prospects to send, nor do we have the cash. No single player would save the atrocity that is the Seattle Mariners right now. Watch one game and tell me Beltran would take the pressure of those bats– no way.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 16 days ago

Baseball Prospectus lists the Mariners playoff chances today as just 1.7%, which is actually lower than the Mets’ 2.6%. I doubt Beltran will move across the country to another bad park for hitters in his contract year for a team like the Mariners. They can try to get him, but he will likely nix any trade to Seattle.

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

This is a proposed trade with the Mets right? The “holy shit we’re in debt” Mets? Why trade anything? Just say “we’ll pay his contract”. Maybe give the owners an extra 300K to buy some more shit they don’t need and that’s the deal.

BZD
Guest
BZD
5 years 16 days ago

because some other team will pay his salary _AND_ give them some prospects. if it was just salary think the Giants would have done that deal already..

Antonio Bananas
Guest
Antonio Bananas
5 years 16 days ago

What if you also send 500K to the GM? 500K to the GM, 500K to the owner, and pay Beltran the rest of the year. If I were a GM, I’d take it. If I were an owner, especially one in their situation, I’d take it. It may be seen as bribery or something though so maybe not.

Franco
Guest
Franco
5 years 16 days ago

The Mets seem to be willing to take on most of the salary. They’re going to taking Beltran, KRod, Castillo, Oliver Perez, Igarashi and maybe Reyes off the books for next season where I guess they’ll run on a shoestring budget for a couple seasons.

Dustin
Guest
Dustin
5 years 16 days ago

As a Mariners fan, any deal involving Nick Franklin for a one-year-rental is an automatic “no”…

I love the idea of Beltran, and have liked the idea of acquiring him for quite some time, but he’s not worth Franklin.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 15 days ago

To Antonio Bananas:

BP = Baseball Prospectus. “BP” is commonly used to refer to that organization. Their playoff probability listings are based on statistical analysis.

It is neither “right” or “wrong” … is is just a probability. And as of this morning, BP says the Mariners chances of making the playoffs is just 1%. They say the Mets chances are 3%. Not much better, but still better than the Mariners.

Again, I doubt Beltran would approve a trade to the Mariners if he were asked to waive his NTC today. He would do it for the Giants whose chances today of making the playoffs are 92.1%.

Roberto
Guest
Roberto
5 years 15 days ago

correction: Mets playoff chances as of today are 3.3%

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
5 years 15 days ago

Anyone know what’s different about BP and Cool Standings? The latter gives them 12.6% and they give Seattle 7.6%.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 15 days ago

Even given their ridiculously low projection of the Mariners from here on out (which obviously Beltran would have quite an effect there), the Mariners are still at 1% to win their division and the Mets are at 0.3% (as of 7/9). The Mets with Beltran are still the Mets and way behind two powerhouses. The Mariners don’t have that problem. The Mariners with Beltran have even less problems.

Scott Gianelli
Guest
Scott Gianelli
5 years 15 days ago

After one day, the Mets are 6.5 games out of a playoff spot and the Mariners are 5.5 out, so it’s still way to early to say definitively that one team should buy and the other should sell.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 15 days ago

You should take into account the quality of team each is chasing… and how much of a difference maker it would be to have Beltran switch between the two teams.

GhettoBear04
Guest
GhettoBear04
5 years 15 days ago

This seems laughable to me on many levels, most of which were already covered.

DonDraper
Guest
DonDraper
5 years 15 days ago

A much more sensible destination for Beltran is Atlanta, where he’d be replacing Nate McLouth. Atlanta definitely has the minor league talent to aquire Beltran and could probably have NY cover most of his salary.

David Einhorn
Guest
David Einhorn
5 years 14 days ago

If Beltran goes to Atlanta, I will personally pack Sandy Alderson into a container of sardines bound for Shanghai.

Erick
Guest
Erick
5 years 14 days ago

The Mariners are now 6.5 behind my Rangers and 5.5 behind LAA. The rangers are said to be targeting Beltran as a LF option because of questions about our current CF position that has a currently hot hitting but questionable veteran Endy Chavez/Craig Gentry in the ML and currently injured Julio Borbon in AAA and just promoted to AAA Leonys Martin who quickly showed that he might be a good September callup after he destroyed AA pitching since being signed a few months ago. The move would put Josh Hamilton back in CF and make a dynamic lineup even more lethal…

Oleg
Guest
Oleg
5 years 14 days ago

Mariners??? You’re a dumbass!!! Beltran has said several times that he’ll only approve a trade to a contender.

JamesDaBear
Guest
5 years 14 days ago

The Mariners with Beltran IS a contender… and Beltran will look even better when he proves he’s the reason they’re contending.

CircleChange11
Guest
CircleChange11
5 years 13 days ago

Are they really?

I’m not be sarcastic or a smart-mouth … but does adding Beltran provide enough WIN surplus to realistically catch TEX? (That doesn’t rely on them suffering a mega-collapse)

I agree Beltran improves their offense, but by enough?

Beltran, if he continues his current performance, is worth ~3 WAR for the second half. He likely replaces a -0.5 WAR players, so he’s worth 3.5 Wins … SEA is 7.5 GB in the division race and likely needs to win the division to make the playoffs.

Good Lord, I just noticed that Ichiro is performing below replacement level … and Beltrans 3.3 WAR would be DOUBLE the value of SEA’s most valuable position player (B. Ryan).

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